8
Extra Space eMini S&P: As controversial as this may sound we think that the downturn in the S&P has finished in the short term. The 15th Jan curve is balanced with a slight bias back up to 1786. 04/02 The fight was a long one but unfortunately the market won. Stopped at 1741.50 for a loss of 19 ticks. Will look to adjust the short term curve for tomorrows analysis. 27/01 No surprises here, stopped at 1800 in the short term and now just waiting to see if the exodus continues, 1741 our next stop level and we look to change our short term curve soon. 16/01 Yesterdays recovery means we're back in the comfort zone and looking for our targets in the low 1900's. WhiteSpace1 EuroStoxx: Medium term short becomes a legacy short as we move the curves forward, both 12th Dec and 15th Jan curves are bullish but only above 3100 to 3150. 30/01 Medium term pushed short yesterday at 3020 looking for 2884. Stop on this is a relatively tight 3045 but with EMA's diverging nicely and swing and momentum backing this up we're more than happy to take the trade. 29/01 I've had longer lunches than that. Stopped at 30454 for a 14 tick loss. Nothing doing here until we close above 3102 or below 3032. WhiteSpace1 DAX: The concentration of longs at 9307 opens to 8809 with a 9440 stop, perversely we see a pause in the US Equity rout but the in the EU its a different matter. 30/01 Anyone get that number plate ?? Not only was the gap filled but the stops were triggered as well. A loss of 95.5 ticks in both curves is a rather expensive day and highly annoying considering the entrance fee was so cheap...Arrggghh, but rules are rules and the year has only just begun. 29/01 Pushed long on both curves MOO at 9498 and looking for 9992.5. Stops come in at 9402.5. Worth noting that there is a gap to the downside around 9460 that could be filled and that the EMA's are looking to cross north. 27/01 Stopped in both curves at 9402, this is a good opportunity to shift our curves and reassess conditions. Interesting to see how strong this area of support became and not it is crucial that it holds. WhiteSpace1 FTSE: The trigger at 6475 left us short at 6433 with a 6583 stop looking 6129. Simply too many longs, in the same way there were too many comfortable shorts in Short Sterling. 27/01 Stopped in 2 out of 3 longs, 6528 and 6583, 6315 out next stop for our legacy longs from last year at 6500. FTSE is the first on the list of global index purchases once we find a level, EU based last. 13/01 Treble long is a dangerous game, but rules and rules. 6678 the trigger and one of our cheapest entries of the year at 6679 looking for 7011 with a 6535 stop. 02/01 We would like the Footsie more if it actually had a few UK companies in it, however rules are rules and our double longs stay. New short term curve only gives a bullish signal above 6678. WhiteSpace1 EUR Currency: Granularity takes us out of this trade a little early which is a shame but rules are rules. Short at 1.3648 exit at 1.3510 for 138 banked. 06/01 Stopped in the medium term at 1.3603 on longs but shorts from 1.3648 still looking for 1.3452. Swing and momentum supporting of the move with major supports coinciding with the targets it may be worth keeping some of the short on when the target is reached. 03/01 120min bar closed at 1.3648 versus a 1.3673 trigger which leaves us short looking for 1.3445 with a 1.3763 stop which is beyond the stops in the Medium and Long Term. WhiteSpace1 GBP Currency: Annoyingly taken out of another short position early, 1.6361 out at 1.6316 for 45 banked. 04/02 Medium term stopped on the back of yesterdays trading session at 1.6268 and 83 pips taken from the kitty. Short term is still very much in play, being short from 1.6361 looking for 1.6180. 03/02 Short term curve marked for consistency only at the moment on the back of this morning sell off. Trade above and close below 1.6428 and we're off and running towards 1.6180. Medium term is still long looking for 1.6828. 23/01 Short term curve balances out and leaves us with no bias in the short term, further out we are still looking for 1.6828. WhiteSpace1 EURGBP Currency: Third and last short to be removed prematurely, 0.8362 is exited at 0.8281 for a measly 81, still looking for 0.8080 long term with a 0.8455 stop. 04/02 Short term gives up the ghost and gets stopped on the rally yesterday at 0.8325. We still hold two shorts, a legacy from 0.8333 (28/11) and one from 0.8362 (27th Dec). Targets on these are 0.8080 and 0.8083 respectively, whilst stops are up at 0.8455 and 0.8385. 20/01 As much as we hate it we understand why its logical to be short EUR versus GBP, 0.8268 the entry versus a 0.8365 trigger, quite expensive but such is life. WhiteSpace1 WhiteSpace WhiteSpace WhiteSpace WhiteSpace WhiteSpace WhiteSpace WhiteSpace Security Medium Term Curve Entry Stop Target Bias Short Term Curve Entry Stop Target Bias ES1 Index 1836.50 1790.50 Neutral 1786.50 1789.50 Balanced VG1 Index 3102.00 3045.00 Neutral 3152.00 3055.00 Neutral GX1 Index 9497.5 9402.5 Neutral 9307.5 9440.0 8809.5 Bearish Z 1 Index 6685.5 6583.0 Neutral 6475.5 6583.0 6129.5 Bearish EUR Curncy 1.3673 1.3603 Neutral 1.3673 1.3693 Balanced GBP Curncy 1.6348 1.6268 Neutral 1.6428 1.6448 Balanced EURGBP Curncy 0.83653 0.83853 Balanced 0.82453 0.83253 Neutral Equities and FX Wednesday, 5th Feb 2014

Equities and FX - The Technical Analyst€¦ · 04/02 Short term gives up the ghost and gets stopped on the rally yesterday at 0.8325. We still hold two shorts, a legacy from 0.8333

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Page 1: Equities and FX - The Technical Analyst€¦ · 04/02 Short term gives up the ghost and gets stopped on the rally yesterday at 0.8325. We still hold two shorts, a legacy from 0.8333

Extra Space

eMini S&P: As controversial as this may sound we think that the downturn in the S&P has finished in the short term. The 15th Jan curve is balanced with aslight bias back up to 1786. 04/02 The fight was a long one but unfortunately the market won. Stopped at 1741.50 for a loss of 19 ticks. Will look to adjust the short term curve fortomorrows analysis.27/01 No surprises here, stopped at 1800 in the short term and now just waiting to see if the exodus continues, 1741 our next stop level and we look tochange our short term curve soon.16/01 Yesterdays recovery means we're back in the comfort zone and looking for our targets in the low 1900's.

WhiteSpace1EuroStoxx: Medium term short becomes a legacy short as we move the curves forward, both 12th Dec and 15th Jan curves are bullish but only above 3100to 3150. 30/01 Medium term pushed short yesterday at 3020 looking for 2884. Stop on this is a relatively tight 3045 but with EMA's diverging nicely and swing andmomentum backing this up we're more than happy to take the trade.29/01 I've had longer lunches than that. Stopped at 30454 for a 14 tick loss. Nothing doing here until we close above 3102 or below 3032.

WhiteSpace1DAX: The concentration of longs at 9307 opens to 8809 with a 9440 stop, perversely we see a pause in the US Equity rout but the in the EU its a differentmatter. 30/01 Anyone get that number plate ?? Not only was the gap filled but the stops were triggered as well. A loss of 95.5 ticks in both curves is a ratherexpensive day and highly annoying considering the entrance fee was so cheap...Arrggghh, but rules are rules and the year has only just begun.29/01 Pushed long on both curves MOO at 9498 and looking for 9992.5. Stops come in at 9402.5. Worth noting that there is a gap to the downside around9460 that could be filled and that the EMA's are looking to cross north.27/01 Stopped in both curves at 9402, this is a good opportunity to shift our curves and reassess conditions. Interesting to see how strong this area ofsupport became and not it is crucial that it holds.

WhiteSpace1FTSE: The trigger at 6475 left us short at 6433 with a 6583 stop looking 6129. Simply too many longs, in the same way there were too many comfortableshorts in Short Sterling. 27/01 Stopped in 2 out of 3 longs, 6528 and 6583, 6315 out next stop for our legacy longs from last year at 6500. FTSE is the first on the list of global indexpurchases once we find a level, EU based last.13/01 Treble long is a dangerous game, but rules and rules. 6678 the trigger and one of our cheapest entries of the year at 6679 looking for 7011 with a 6535stop.02/01 We would like the Footsie more if it actually had a few UK companies in it, however rules are rules and our double longs stay. New short term curveonly gives a bullish signal above 6678.

WhiteSpace1EUR Currency: Granularity takes us out of this trade a little early which is a shame but rules are rules. Short at 1.3648 exit at 1.3510 for 138 banked. 06/01 Stopped in the medium term at 1.3603 on longs but shorts from 1.3648 still looking for 1.3452. Swing and momentum supporting of the move withmajor supports coinciding with the targets it may be worth keeping some of the short on when the target is reached.03/01 120min bar closed at 1.3648 versus a 1.3673 trigger which leaves us short looking for 1.3445 with a 1.3763 stop which is beyond the stops in theMedium and Long Term.

WhiteSpace1GBP Currency: Annoyingly taken out of another short position early, 1.6361 out at 1.6316 for 45 banked. 04/02 Medium term stopped on the back of yesterdays trading session at 1.6268 and 83 pips taken from the kitty. Short term is still very much in play, beingshort from 1.6361 looking for 1.6180.03/02 Short term curve marked for consistency only at the moment on the back of this morning sell off. Trade above and close below 1.6428 and we're offand running towards 1.6180. Medium term is still long looking for 1.6828.23/01 Short term curve balances out and leaves us with no bias in the short term, further out we are still looking for 1.6828.

WhiteSpace1EURGBP Currency: Third and last short to be removed prematurely, 0.8362 is exited at 0.8281 for a measly 81, still looking for 0.8080 long term with a 0.8455stop. 04/02 Short term gives up the ghost and gets stopped on the rally yesterday at 0.8325. We still hold two shorts, a legacy from 0.8333 (28/11) and one from0.8362 (27th Dec). Targets on these are 0.8080 and 0.8083 respectively, whilst stops are up at 0.8455 and 0.8385.20/01 As much as we hate it we understand why its logical to be short EUR versus GBP, 0.8268 the entry versus a 0.8365 trigger, quite expensive but such islife.

WhiteSpace1WhiteSpace

WhiteSpace

WhiteSpace

WhiteSpace

WhiteSpace

WhiteSpace

WhiteSpace

SecurityMedium Term Curve

Entry Stop Target Bias

Short Term Curve

Entry Stop Target Bias

ES1 Index 1836.50 1790.50 Neutral 1786.50 1789.50 Balanced

VG1 Index 3102.00 3045.00 Neutral 3152.00 3055.00 Neutral

GX1 Index 9497.5 9402.5 Neutral 9307.5 9440.0 8809.5 Bearish

Z 1 Index 6685.5 6583.0 Neutral 6475.5 6583.0 6129.5 Bearish

EUR Curncy 1.3673 1.3603 Neutral 1.3673 1.3693 Balanced

GBP Curncy 1.6348 1.6268 Neutral 1.6428 1.6448 Balanced

EURGBPCurncy

0.83653 0.83853 Balanced 0.82453 0.83253 Neutral

Equities and FXWednesday, 5th Feb 2014

Page 2: Equities and FX - The Technical Analyst€¦ · 04/02 Short term gives up the ghost and gets stopped on the rally yesterday at 0.8325. We still hold two shorts, a legacy from 0.8333

eMini S&P: As controversial as this may sound we think that the downturn in the S&P has finished in the short term. The 15th Jan curve is balanced with aslight bias back up to 1786. 04/02 The fight was a long one but unfortunately the market won. Stopped at 1741.50 for a loss of 19 ticks. Will look to adjust the short term curve fortomorrows analysis.27/01 No surprises here, stopped at 1800 in the short term and now just waiting to see if the exodus continues, 1741 our next stop level and we look tochange our short term curve soon.16/01 Yesterdays recovery means we're back in the comfort zone and looking for our targets in the low 1900's.

ES1 Index 16 Dec 2013 15 Jan 2014

Bias Neutral Balanced

Target

Entry Trigger 1836.50 1786.50

Last 1740.25 1740.25

Stop 1790.50 1789.50

Balance Point 1798.50 1780.50

Skew 1.10 0.99

Period Open 1770.75 1833.50

Period Close 1740.25 1740.25

Absolute Max 1846.50 1845.75

Absolute Min 1732.25 1732.25

Act Balance 1939/20827 5160/8029

S&P500 EMINI FUT Mar14Wednesday, 5th Feb 2014

Page 3: Equities and FX - The Technical Analyst€¦ · 04/02 Short term gives up the ghost and gets stopped on the rally yesterday at 0.8325. We still hold two shorts, a legacy from 0.8333

EuroStoxx: Medium term short becomes a legacy short as we move the curves forward, both 12th Dec and 15th Jan curves are bullish but only above 3100to 3150. 30/01 Medium term pushed short yesterday at 3020 looking for 2884. Stop on this is a relatively tight 3045 but with EMA's diverging nicely and swing andmomentum backing this up we're more than happy to take the trade.29/01 I've had longer lunches than that. Stopped at 30454 for a 14 tick loss. Nothing doing here until we close above 3102 or below 3032.

VG1 Index 12 Dec 2013 16 Jan 2014

Bias Neutral Neutral

Target

Entry Trigger 3102.00 3152.00

Last 2951.00 2951.00

Stop 3045.00 3055.00

Balance Point 3038.00 3022.00

Skew 0.28 0.78

Period Open 2926.00 3173.00

Period Close 2951.00 2951.00

Absolute Max 3178.00 3176.00

Absolute Min 2910.00 2933.00

Act Balance 10666/30736 2454/20717

EURO STOXX 50 Mar14Wednesday, 5th Feb 2014

Page 4: Equities and FX - The Technical Analyst€¦ · 04/02 Short term gives up the ghost and gets stopped on the rally yesterday at 0.8325. We still hold two shorts, a legacy from 0.8333

DAX: The concentration of longs at 9307 opens to 8809 with a 9440 stop, perversely we see a pause in the US Equity rout but the in the EU its a different matter.

30/01 Anyone get that number plate ?? Not only was the gap filled but the stops were triggered as well. A loss of 95.5 ticks in both curves is a rather expensive day and highly

annoying considering the entrance fee was so cheap...Arrggghh, but rules are rules and the year has only just begun.

29/01 Pushed long on both curves MOO at 9498 and looking for 9992.5. Stops come in at 9402.5. Worth noting that there is a gap to the downside around 9460 that could be filled and

that the EMA's are looking to cross north.

27/01 Stopped in both curves at 9402, this is a good opportunity to shift our curves and reassess conditions. Interesting to see how strong this area of support became and not it is

crucial that it holds.

GX1 Index 12 Dec 2013 21 Jan 2014

Bias Neutral Bearish

Target 8809.5

Entry Trigger 9497.5 9307.5

Last 9107.5 9107.5

Stop 9402.5 9440.0

Balance Point 9412.5 9352.5

Skew 0.6 0.8

Period Open 9042.0 9752.5

Period Close 9107.5 9107.5

Absolute Max 9802.5 9802.5

Absolute Min 8999.0 9074.5

Act Balance 3987/8963 4532/2350

DAX INDEX FUTURE Mar14Wednesday, 5th Feb 2014

Page 5: Equities and FX - The Technical Analyst€¦ · 04/02 Short term gives up the ghost and gets stopped on the rally yesterday at 0.8325. We still hold two shorts, a legacy from 0.8333

FTSE: The trigger at 6475 left us short at 6433 with a 6583 stop looking 6129. Simply too many longs, in the same way there were too many comfortable shorts in Short Sterling.

27/01 Stopped in 2 out of 3 longs, 6528 and 6583, 6315 out next stop for our legacy longs from last year at 6500. FTSE is the first on the list of global index purchases once we find a

level, EU based last.

13/01 Treble long is a dangerous game, but rules and rules. 6678 the trigger and one of our cheapest entries of the year at 6679 looking for 7011 with a 6535 stop.

02/01 We would like the Footsie more if it actually had a few UK companies in it, however rules are rules and our double longs stay. New short term curve only gives a bullish signal

above 6678.

Z 1 Index 16 Dec 2013 21 Jan 2014

Bias Neutral Bearish

Target 6129.5

Entry Trigger 6685.5 6475.5

Last 6375.5 6375.5

Stop 6583.0 6583.0

Balance Point 6565.5 6490.5

Skew 0.8 0.9

Period Open 6365.0 6790.0

Period Close 6375.5 6375.5

Absolute Max 6815.5 6815.5

Absolute Min 6344.5 6344.5

Act Balance 1816/4776 1911/1275

FTSE 100 IDX FUT Mar14Wednesday, 5th Feb 2014

Page 6: Equities and FX - The Technical Analyst€¦ · 04/02 Short term gives up the ghost and gets stopped on the rally yesterday at 0.8325. We still hold two shorts, a legacy from 0.8333

EUR Currency: Granularity takes us out of this trade a little early which is a shame but rules are rules. Short at 1.3648 exit at 1.3510 for 138 banked. 06/01 Stopped in the medium term at 1.3603 on longs but shorts from 1.3648 still looking for 1.3452. Swing and momentum supporting of the move withmajor supports coinciding with the targets it may be worth keeping some of the short on when the target is reached.03/01 120min bar closed at 1.3648 versus a 1.3673 trigger which leaves us short looking for 1.3445 with a 1.3763 stop which is beyond the stops in theMedium and Long Term.

EUR Curncy 7 Nov 2013 20 Dec 2013

Bias Neutral Balanced

Target

Entry Trigger 1.3673 1.3673

Last 1.3509 1.3509

Stop 1.3603 1.3693

Balance Point 1.3593 1.3633

Skew 0.7103 1.3300

Period Open 1.3518 1.3656

Period Close 1.3509 1.3509

Absolute Max 1.3893 1.3893

Absolute Min 1.3296 1.3477

Act Balance 655/1714 325/779

EUR BGNL CurncyWednesday, 5th Feb 2014

Page 7: Equities and FX - The Technical Analyst€¦ · 04/02 Short term gives up the ghost and gets stopped on the rally yesterday at 0.8325. We still hold two shorts, a legacy from 0.8333

GBP Currency: Annoyingly taken out of another short position early, 1.6361 out at 1.6316 for 45 banked. 04/02 Medium term stopped on the back of yesterdays trading session at 1.6268 and 83 pips taken from the kitty. Short term is still very much in play, beingshort from 1.6361 looking for 1.6180.03/02 Short term curve marked for consistency only at the moment on the back of this morning sell off. Trade above and close below 1.6428 and we're offand running towards 1.6180. Medium term is still long looking for 1.6828.23/01 Short term curve balances out and leaves us with no bias in the short term, further out we are still looking for 1.6828.

GBP Curncy 1 Oct 2013 17 Dec 2013

Bias Neutral Balanced

Target

Entry Trigger 1.6348 1.6428

Last 1.6314 1.6314

Stop 1.6268 1.6448

Balance Point 1.6308 1.6408

Skew 0.5679 0.3101

Period Open 1.6188 1.6299

Period Close 1.6314 1.6314

Absolute Max 1.6668 1.6668

Absolute Min 1.5855 1.6220

Act Balance 1680/2333 762/783

GBP BGNL CurncyWednesday, 5th Feb 2014

Page 8: Equities and FX - The Technical Analyst€¦ · 04/02 Short term gives up the ghost and gets stopped on the rally yesterday at 0.8325. We still hold two shorts, a legacy from 0.8333

EURGBP Currency: Third and last short to be removed prematurely, 0.8362 is exited at 0.8281 for a measly 81, still looking for 0.8080 long term with a 0.8455stop. 04/02 Short term gives up the ghost and gets stopped on the rally yesterday at 0.8325. We still hold two shorts, a legacy from 0.8333 (28/11) and one from0.8362 (27th Dec). Targets on these are 0.8080 and 0.8083 respectively, whilst stops are up at 0.8455 and 0.8385.20/01 As much as we hate it we understand why its logical to be short EUR versus GBP, 0.8268 the entry versus a 0.8365 trigger, quite expensive but such islife.

EURGBP Curncy 29 Oct 2013 17 Dec 2013

Bias Balanced Neutral

Target

Entry Trigger 0.83653 0.82453

Last 0.82797 0.82797

Stop 0.83853 0.83253

Balance Point 0.83253 0.82853

Skew 0.46042 0.57386

Period Open 0.85431 0.84429

Period Close 0.82797 0.82797

Absolute Max 0.85853 0.84668

Absolute Min 0.81683 0.81683

Act Balance 489/1000 590/113

EURGBP BGNL CurncyWednesday, 5th Feb 2014