EPIC MRA

Transit Initiatives and Transit Initiatives and Communities Conference Communities Conference

Polling and CampaignIntelligence Session

June 1, 2015June 1, 2015

EPIC MRA

Services EPIC-MRA provides to Michigan Transit AuthoritiesServices EPIC-MRA provides to Michigan Transit Authorities

Telephone surveys:

Used to determine community satisfaction, the most effective ways to measure support a ballot proposal, and message testing.

Focus group research:

A great tool to measure qualitative community support for ballot proposals, to help fashion survey questions and messages that resonate, as well as refine communications and messaging.

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Services EPIC-MRA provides to Michigan Transit Authorities cont.Services EPIC-MRA provides to Michigan Transit Authorities cont.

On-bus ridership surveys:

Used for ridership satisfaction, finding the top reasons for using transit services instead of other methods of transportation, purposes/destinations for bus travel, and level of support for ballot proposals.

On-line surveys:

Used for satisfaction and measuring support for ballot proposals. While less costly, on-line surveys are usually less accurate/ predictive than telephone surveys due to self-selection.

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Sample sizeSample size

Sample sizes are chosen based on both data needs and budget:

At least a 400 sample is needed for transit authorities. Oversamples are useful if greater N-sizes are needed for certain desired regions or key demographics; however, larger sample sizes are not necessarily needed for the overall error rate:

400 sample has a 4.9% margin of error

500 sample has a 4.4% margin of error

600 sample has a 4% margin of error

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Screening for likely voters in specific elections OR Screening for likely voters in specific elections OR

cross tabs of general election voterscross tabs of general election voters

Screening for likely voters participating in lower turnout elections:

If a February, May or August election is chosen, likely voter households for that election are pulled, and the voters screened for their intent to vote;

Screening for participation in general elections, with lower turnout elections tested as questions for cross tab purposes:

General election voters pulled for the sample, but participation in lower turnout elections is analyzed by cross tab of questions.

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Screening questions used to test voter response to proposals Screening questions used to test voter response to proposals General election screen questions:

Respondents asked if they voted in either of past two general elections, both, or were too young to vote in either. Then asked how certain they are to vote in the next general election.

Specific lower turnout election screens:

After hearing description of type of election, respondents asked how often they vote in such elections – “all the time, most of the time, half the time, seldom or never” – then asked certainty to vote in next election described.

Cross tab questions among general election sample:

After hearing description of low turnout elections (February, May or August), respondents asked how often they vote – “all the time, most of the time, half the time, seldom or never.”

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Survey questions about atmospherics; which can influence votersSurvey questions about atmospherics; which can influence voters

Perception of the state and/or local economy:

Is the economy improving, getting worse or about the same?

Direction of the state, county, or region:

Is the state/county or region headed in the right direction, or is it seriously off on the wrong track?

Biggest issue/problem concern:

Which issue of (a rotated list) is of greatest concern?

If “taxes”, “government spending”, or “quality of government services” are among the top concerns, it can make passing ballot proposals more difficult.

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Perception of taxes/fares paid to support transit servicesPerception of taxes/fares paid to support transit services

Perception of transportation taxes:

Is the level of taxes paid to fund transit services are too high, too low or about right for what they get back in services?

After hearing a description of amount of taxes actually paid:

Is that amount more than thought, less than thought, or about the amount respondents thought they paid?

After hearing a description of amount of bus fares:

Are fares too high, too low, or about right?

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Perception of performance rating of transit authorityPerception of performance rating of transit authority

Perception of job performance in providing transportation services:

Do voters offer positive rating of “excellent” or “pretty good,” or negative rating or “only fair” or “poor” for the job done providing transportation services, and why do they offer that rating?

Local government rating included for comparison purposes.

Transit authority performance in other areas also useful to test:

Management of finances, openness and transparency in financial decisions and spending are other issues that can also influence voter decisions on ballot proposals.

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Perception of level of transit service needs for the populationPerception of level of transit service needs for the population

served is a key indicator of willingness to support a tax increaseserved is a key indicator of willingness to support a tax increase

Do transportation services meet current/future needs, should they be expanded/improved, or are there too many services now?

Respondents who say more services are needed are asked to describe which services are needed.

If significantly more respondents say services should be expanded/improved than say that existing services are adequate, voters are more likely to be receptive to a tax increase.

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First cold vote on a tax proposal should describe current tax, First cold vote on a tax proposal should describe current tax,

amount of tax increase, and tax impact on average homeowneramount of tax increase, and tax impact on average homeowner

Would you vote “yes” in favor of the millage proposal or “no” to oppose it (with improvements described in very general terms)?

If undecided, ask which way they lean toward; “yes” or “no”?

Ask “yes” and “no” voters why they voted the way they did.

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Typical reasons why respondents say they vote “yes” Typical reasons why respondents say they vote “yes”

Public transportation is important

People use it often

It’s needed (in general)

Services need to be expanded or improved

Improves/benefits the community

High gas prices

Respondent uses it

Reasonable cost

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Typical reasons why respondents say they vote “no” Typical reasons why respondents say they vote “no”

Taxes too high/against tax increase

Not needed

Do not personally use public transportation

Buses run empty

Wasteful spending

Cannot afford it

No service in their area

Too much money

Riders should pay more through fares

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Second vote; with more details on improvements/expanded services Second vote; with more details on improvements/expanded services

Have a revote on the proposal, to see if support has changed with more information; albeit very generally described:

Ask “yes” and “no” voters what, if anything, stood out from detailed statement which influenced their vote. This is important to determine what information resonates the most.

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More specific descriptions of service expansions/improvements More specific descriptions of service expansions/improvements

funded; with follow-up questions on support/opposition to each funded; with follow-up questions on support/opposition to each

Examples of descriptions of improvements/expanded services:

Improve wait times overall

Operate all routes until a later designated time on weekdays

Extend weekday evening hours of service on busiest routes

Improve wait times for bus service during peak hours

Extend Saturday evening service on all routes to a later designated time

Improve wait times for the most heavily traveled weekday evening routes

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After hearing the specific improvements/expansionAfter hearing the specific improvements/expansion

of services, a third revote is heldof services, a third revote is held

Ask if respondents would vote “yes” in favor of the millage proposal or “no” to oppose it.

If undecided, ask which way they lean toward; “yes” or “no”?

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In a split sample format, arguments are tested to determine In a split sample format, arguments are tested to determine

how convincing they are to SUPPORT the proposalhow convincing they are to SUPPORT the proposal

Examples of arguments in support of proposal:

As the region grows, so will traffic congestion. Improved public transportation services offer an appealing alternative that could substantially reduce traffic congestion.

Each community in the service area will see significant improvements in services for a minor increase in taxes.

More hybrid-electric buses will be put into service, which will be purchased with federal funding. These buses reduce air pollution and also significantly reduce fuel consumption.

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Supporting arguments continuedSupporting arguments continued

Improved public transportation services help enhance our economic climate by creating jobs for area workers.

As gasoline prices get closer to $4 per gallon again, an expanded and improved transportation system will be of use to greater numbers of people who will decide to ride instead of driving.

Effective public transportation saves tax dollars in the long run because it enables poor and less skilled people to find and keep jobs, and not rely on social service programs.

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After hearing the arguments in FAVOR of the millage After hearing the arguments in FAVOR of the millage

proposal, a fourth revote is heldproposal, a fourth revote is held

Ask if respondents would vote “yes” in favor of the millage proposal or “no” to oppose it.

If undecided, ask which way they lean toward; “yes” or “no”?

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In a split sample format, arguments are tested to determine In a split sample format, arguments are tested to determine

how convincing they are to OPPOSE the proposalhow convincing they are to OPPOSE the proposal

Examples of arguments against proposal:

Homeowners can only be asked to support so many taxes, no matter how worthy the purpose is, and people in our area are paying too many taxes already.

There are many other problems and issues that need to be addressed with our tax dollars before we try to tackle the needs of public transportation.

The tax increase (specified per year for every $100,000 in market value) is too much to pay during difficult economic times.

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Opposing arguments continuedOpposing arguments continued

It just seems like the buses are NOT used all that much right now, with many mostly empty.

It is a waste of money to buy hybrid buses because they do not get much better mileage than regular buses, but they cost more (cost in dollars), compared to (cost in dollars) for regular buses.

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After hearing the arguments both for and against After hearing the arguments both for and against

the millage proposal, a final revote is heldthe millage proposal, a final revote is held

Ask if respondents would vote “yes” in favor of the millage proposal or “no” to oppose it.

If undecided, ask which way they lean toward; “yes” or “no”?

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Half of the split sample heard and rated arguments against the Half of the split sample heard and rated arguments against the

millage proposal first, followed by arguments for itmillage proposal first, followed by arguments for it

Does it make a difference whether positive or negative arguments are heard and rated first or last? That can determine whether it makes sense to communicate first and early, or later.

What level of support does the public have on the first cold question; compared to when more information is heard?

What demographic groups move toward support or opposition of the millage proposal, and why?

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Which specific improvements or expanded services Which specific improvements or expanded services

are supported/opposed - ranked the most to the leastare supported/opposed - ranked the most to the least

Which demographic groups are most supportive of which specific improvements and expanded services?

What arguments and messages for the millage proposal are most convincing to which groups?

Between the first and last vote, which demographic groups move the most toward support, based on which messages?

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Other messages and attributes of public transportation -Other messages and attributes of public transportation -

ranked by highest to lowest importanceranked by highest to lowest importance

Connecting people to jobs

Helping seniors live more active lives

Encouraging economic growth

Improving air quality and reducing traffic congestion

Attracting and retaining young professionals

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What improvements/enhancements have been most important in What improvements/enhancements have been most important in

causing a growth in ridership in recent years?causing a growth in ridership in recent years?

Increased bus routes

Extended hours of service

Less wait times between trips

Expanded areas of service to areas not previously served

More frequent bus trips

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Awareness of services offered by the transit authorityAwareness of services offered by the transit authority

Respondents asked how aware they are of the services offered:

Very aware, somewhat aware, only a little aware or not aware at all?

Regular bus service is always named as the top service, followed by other services provided, when ranked by levels of awareness.

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Does the household use specific transportation services offeredDoes the household use specific transportation services offered

Each service is read, and the respondent is asked if they or other household members use the service.

Respondents are asked how often they and/or others use each service.

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Demographic questions typically asked in surveysDemographic questions typically asked in surveys Source of information about local news Does respondent drive? How many automobiles available to use?

Are children living in household?

Marital status Age Education

Race/ethnic groups identified with Labor union membership Home ownership, rent or lease

Party affiliation Income Gender