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EPA’s New Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Model: Applying technology to support the President’s
climate change initiative
2010 Environmental Information Symposium
Steve ZieglerMay 12, 2010
2
Agenda
Challenge Model Results
•Oil crisis•CAFE standard1970s
•EPA CAA Tier 1•CA Low Emission Vehicle1990s
•EPA CAA Tier 2•CA sues EPA2000s
•EPA estimated mileage•Phase out leaded gasoline1980s
3
Challenge Different standards
• Fuel economy vs. emissions• State vs. Federal
Pollutant EmissionsGHG Emissions
Corporate AverageFuel Economy
CA & Others:Pollutant Emissions
GHG Emissions
4
Presidential Initiative
May 2009 – President Obama announces tighter fuel efficiency standards
• Priority public policy initiative
• Push for new national standard
• Fuel economy & GHG emissions
31% Mobile Sources
U.S. GHG Emissions In 2007
5
Team
Office of Transportation and Air Quality• Policy• Subject matter expertise• Model approach• Inputs and post processing
ICF• Expertise in CAFE and fuel consumption modeling• Model approach• Model development
6
Model Overview
OMEGA
.NET DesktopModel
Optimization Model for reducing Emissions of Greenhouse gases from Automobiles
(OMEGA)
Scenario
Market
Technology
Fuels
Reference
Various output files and formats
<xml/>
txt
7
Manufacturer #1
Model Approach – Technology Selection
295
Manufacturer #2
CO2 (g/mi) 347 CO2 (g/mi)
Technologies
1 FLAT
2 Pumping
3 Hybrid
4 Plug-in
…
$
$
$$
$$$1
1
1
1
2
2
2
3 1
1
2
2
1 2 3 1
1
2
21 2 3
1 2 3 1 2
267 281243 250
8
Model Approach – Changes In FuelManufacturer #1
295
Manufacturer #2
CO2 (g/mi) 347 CO2 (g/mi)267 281243 250Gasoline
Diesel
Electricity
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
D G
D
D
D
D
GG +
9
Model – Selection Logic
TARF – Technology Application Rating Factor• Choose the least expensive technology • Choose the most cost effective (most CO2 reduction for the
least expense) based on the consumer’s estimated actual mileage
• Choose the most cost effective (most CO2 reduction for the least expense) based on EPA mileage estimates
10
Results
National program • 2012-2016
• Average 250 CO2 (g/mi) / 35.5 MPG by 2016
• Automakers have clear, standardized targets
• Estimated $1,100 increase in vehicle price
• Estimated $3,000 in fuel savings during the vehicle lifetime
“A supposedly ‘unsolvable’ problem was solved by
unprecedented partnerships.” – Lisa P. Jackson, EPA
"At the end of the day, what's most important is that we have a single, national standard that is achievable, but that is aggressive and cost-
effective." - Charles Territo, Auto Alliance
“This program lessons our dependence on oil and is good for America and good for the planet.”
– Ray LaHood, DOT
11
Results
Forecasted benefits (2012-2016)• 960M metric tons of CO2
• 1.8B barrels of oil
EPA was able to play leadership role in driving a priority public policy initiative
Saving annual electricity
for 117M homes
Preserving 9M acres of forest from deforestation
Removing annual emissions
from 249 coal power plants