EPA Planning and implementation Update

Western Regional Air Partnership

November 11, 2009

Ongoing NAAQS Reviews: Current Schedule

MILESTONE

POLLUTANT

Lead NO2 Primary SO2 Primary OzoneNO2/SO2

SecondaryCO PM

NPR

New schedule

being developed

Jun 26, 2009 Nov 16, 2009 Dec 21, 2009 Feb 12, 2010 Oct 28, 2010 July 2010

NFR Oct 15, 2008 Jan 22, 2010 Jun 2, 2010 Aug 31, 2010 Oct 19, 2010 May 13, 2011Oct 2011

NOTE:

Underlined dates indicate court-ordered or settlement agreement deadlines.

Currently negotiating 17 month extension of NO2/SO2 secondary schedule.

PollutantNAAQS

Promulgation Date

Designations

Effective

110(a) SIPs due

(3 yrs after NAAQS

promulgation)

Attainment Demonstration

Due

Attainment Date

PM2.5

(2006)Sept 2006 Nov 2009 Sept 2009 Nov 2012

Nov 2014/2019

Pb Oct 2008

Nov 2010/2011

(extra time for new monitors)

Oct 2011June

2012/2013Nov

2015/2016

NO2 (primary)

Jan 2010 Feb 2012 Jan 2013 Aug 2013 Feb 2017

SO2 (primary)

June 2010 July 2012June 2013

Jan 2014 July 2017

Ozone Aug 2010 Aug 2011 Aug 2013 Dec 2013 Aug 2017 (Moderate)

CO May 2011 June 2013 May 2014 Dec 2014 May 2018

PM2.5

(2011)Oct 2011 Nov 2013 Oct 2014 Nov 2016

Nov 2018/2023

Anticipated NAAQS Implementation Milestones

Key Milestones for Implementation

• PM2.5 (24-hour, 2006 standard)– Attainment Demonstrations due November

2012

• Regional Haze– FIPs due January 2011– Midcourse Progress Reviews – December

2012– Full Reasonable Progress SIP #2 -

December 2017

Key Milestones for Implementation

• NO2 Primary (2010) – Attainment Demonstrations – August 2013

• Ozone NAAQS (2010) – Attainment Demonstrations – December 2013

• SO2 Primary (2010)– Attainment Demonstrations – January 2014

Implementation Issues

• Planning Guidance/Implementation Rules• Exceptional Events (NOx, SO2)

– WESTAR Letter

• Transport Region options– Clean Air Interstate Rule decision 2008

• Federal Rules– Consumer products– Control Technique Guidelines– Architectural Coatings

Multipollutant Planning

• Benefits– Reduced costs and increased benefits– More effective use of State and Federal

resources– Clear signals to industry on multiple pollutants

• Challenges– Not addressed in CAA– Timing and form of the individual NAAQS– Litigation

Carper Bill – EPA Analysis

July 2009

Analytical Scenarios The analysis focuses on six different power sector cap & trade scenarios for SO2 and NOx.

Control Scenario 1: Annual Emissions Caps

Control Scenario 2: SO2 cap same as #1 in 2012, then 1.5 million tons in 2015; NOx caps same as #1

Control Scenario 3: SO2 same as #2; NOx caps same as #1 in 2012, then 1 million ton NOx cap for Eastern (CAIR) and 0.25 million ton NOx cap for Western (non-CAIR) region in 2015

Control Scenario 4: SO2 cap same as #1 in 2012, then 1 million ton cap in 2015; NOx caps same as #1

Control Scenario 5: SO2 caps same as #2; national NOx caps equal to sum of regional NOx caps in #1; no regional NOx caps

Control Scenario 6: SO2 caps same as #2; existing NOx requirements until 2015 (no new 2012 caps), then same as #2 for 2015 and beyond

Eastern region for this analysis includes ME, VT and NH in addition to the original 28 CAIR states and DC.

2012 - 2014 2015 - 2019 2020 and beyond

SO2 3.5 million tons 2.0 million tons 2.0 million tons

Eastern NOx 1.39 million tons 1.3 million tons 1.3 million tons

Western NOx 400,000 tons 320,000 tons 320,000 tons

Total NOx 1.79 million tons 1.62 million tons 1.62 million tons

Currently, power sector NOx emissions are more than 3 million tons annually, of which 2.4 million tons are in the Eastern region and 0.67 million tons are in the Western region. Power sector SO2 emissions are approximately 7.6 million tons nationally.

Coal Production and Use in the Power Sector

Coal Use By Type

12,2

13

12,0

66

12,7

35

12,7

66

12,2

07

11,8

53

12,2

98

12,5

01

12,1

80

11,8

40

12,2

75

12,4

67

12,1

05

11,8

38

12,2

64

12,4

79

12,1

01

11,8

40

12,1

49

11,9

85

12,1

61

11,8

12

12,3

15

12,4

98

12,1

88

11,8

44

12,2

83

12,4

70

9,16

0

9,12

4

9,06

9

9,90

5

9,13

6

9,29

4

9,42

5

10,0

31

9,13

8

9,28

6

9,44

0

10,0

72

9,13

8

9,24

7

9,41

4

10,0

09

9,14

4

9,28

7

9,56

8

10,5

42

9,13

8

9,29

6

9,43

2

10,0

32

9,13

8

9,28

6

9,43

8

10,0

74

745779

761549618781781

781

549761781781

550761779

745

550762782

748

550743740

670

550761779748

0

2,500

5,000

7,500

10,000

12,500

15,000

17,500

20,000

22,500

25,000

2012

2015

2020

2025

2012

2015

2020

2025

2012

2015

2020

2025

2012

2015

2020

2025

2012

2015

2020

2025

2012

2015

2020

2025

2012

2015

2020

2025

TB

tu

Bituminous Subbituminous Lignite

Ref Case Scenario #1 Scenario #2 Scenario #3 Scenario #4 Scenario #5 Scenario #6

Coal Production by Region

298

290

288

268 294

297

292

287

294

297

291

288

291

297

292

288

296

299

303

287

293

297

292

288

294

297

292

288

141

163

157

159 138

141

134

123 136

139

133

118 135

139

133

118 129

132

114

93 136

139

133

118 136

139

133

118

605

594

602

645

606

609

620

656

608

609

621

657

608

608

619

655

609

612

628

684

608

609

622

657

608

609

621

658

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

2012

2015

2020

2025

2012

2015

2020

2025

2012

2015

2020

2025

2012

2015

2020

2025

2012

2015

2020

2025

2012

2015

2020

2025

2012

2015

2020

2025

Mill

ion

Tons

Appalachia Interior West

Ref Case Scenario #1 Scenario #2 Scenario #3 Scenario #4 Scenario #5 Scenario #6

State-by-State Annual SO2 Emission Levels, 2012

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

RC S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6

Th

ou

san

d T

on

s

Largest bar equals 347

thousand tons of SO2 in Indiana, RCSource: EPA 2009

State-by-State Annual SO2 Emission Levels, 2015

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

RC S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6

Th

ou

san

d T

on

s

Largest bar equals 354

thousand tons of SO2 in Texas, RCSource: EPA 2009

State-by-State Annual SO2 Emission Levels, 2020

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

RC S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6

Th

ou

san

d T

on

s

Largest bar equals 355

thousand tons of SO2 in Texas, RCSource: EPA 2009

State-by-State Annual NOX Emission Levels, 2012

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

RC S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6

Solid = Eastern Totals, Striped = Western Totals

Th

ou

san

d T

on

s

Largest bar equals 129

thousand tons of NOX in Texas, S1, S2, S4Source: EPA 2009

State-by-State Annual NOX Emission Levels, 2015

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

RC S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6

Solid = Eastern Totals, Striped = Western Totals

Th

ou

san

d T

on

s

Largest bar equals 134

thousand tons of NOX in Texas, S4, S6Source: EPA 2009

State-by-State Annual NOX Emission Levels, 2020

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

RC S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6

Solid = Eastern Totals, Striped = Western Totals

Th

ou

san

d T

on

s

Largest bar equals 139

thousand tons of NOX in Texas, S2, S4, S6Source: EPA 2009

State-by-State Ozone Season NOX Emission Levels, 2012

0

250

500

750

1,000

RC S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6

Solid = Eastern Totals, Striped = Western Totals

Th

ou

san

d T

on

s

Largest bar equals 63

thousand tons of NOX in Texas, S1, S2, S4Source: EPA 2009

State-by-State Ozone Season NOX Emission Levels, 2015

0

250

500

750

1,000

RC S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6

Solid = Eastern Totals, Striped = Western Totals

Th

ou

san

d T

on

s

Largest bar equals 64

thousand tons of NOX in Texas, S1, S2, S4, S6Source: EPA 2009

State-by-State Ozone Season NOX Emission Levels, 2020

0

250

500

750

1,000

RC S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6

Solid = Eastern Totals, Striped = Western Totals

Th

ou

san

d T

on

s

Largest bar equals 68

thousand tons of NOX in Texas, S1, S2, S4, S6Source: EPA 2009