Upload
others
View
1
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
ISO-NE PUBLIC
Environmental Update
Patricio Silva S E N I O R A N A L Y S T , S Y S T E M P L A N N I N G
Environmental Advisory Group
N O V E M B E R 1 , 2 0 1 6 | H O L Y O K E , M A
ISO-NE PUBLIC
Timeline of EPA Regulatory Actions Impacting Electric Generators
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
2
Mercury & Air Toxics
Costs Rulemaking
Initial Oil Compliance
Oil Compliance
Oil Compliance
Regional GHG Initiative
Program Review
3rd control period ends
4th control period begins
4th control period ends
Cooling Water
316(b) requirements added to renewing permits
Waste Water
Phase In
Sources: EPA, RGGI
Ozone Area Designations
EPA Reviews Areas
Good Neighbor SIPs due
Marginal Areas attain
Upwind Air Pollution
Phase II Rule
Clean Power Plan
Initial Plans Due
Final Plans due
Compliance begins in
2022 ?
ISO-NE PUBLIC
• Mercury & Air Toxics Standards (MATS): – Challenges over cost
considerations will be argued early in 2017
• Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS): – 2015 Ozone NAAQS (80 FR
65291) implementation rule due in late 2016
– State designation due – Litigation filed, briefing
continuing, arguments expected early in 2017
• Title V Permits: EPA Proposes Procedural Changes to Air Permit Challenges
• EPA Approves Connecticut State NOX Emission Trading Orders as Plan Measures
• EPA Proposes Approving Multi-State Interstate Transport of Air Pollution Rules
• Cooling Water Intake Structures: – Challenges over EPA not
requiring closed-cycle cooling as best technology available
– Briefing continuing into 2017
3
Regulatory & Litigation Updates
ISO-NE PUBLIC ISO-NE PUBLIC
MERCURY & AIR TOXICS STANDARDS (MATS) IMPLEMENTATION Final Rule 77 FR 9304 (February 16, 2012) Supplemental Appropriate & Necessary Finding, 80 FR 75025 (December 1, 2015) Technical Corrections 81 FR 20171 (April 6, 2016)
4
ISO-NE PUBLIC
• August 8, 2016: EPA denied two petitions for reconsideration of the startup and shutdown provisions finalized on April 30, 2015
• EPA denied the requests for reconsideration on procedural basis arguing that the concerns were not appropriately raised during the comment period
• October 6, 2016: petitioners for review filed in the D.C. Circuit challenging EPA’s denial of their administrative reconsideration on the startup and shutdown issues
• Parties challenging the final supplemental finding to consider costs submitted a proposed briefing schedule at the end of September
• Oral arguments have not yet bee scheduled by the D.C. Circuit
5
MATS Implementation Update Petitions for Reconsideration Rejected; Litigation on consideration of costs, petition denials
Sources: EPA; MJ Bradley & Associates LLC
ISO-NE PUBLIC 6
Announced Coal-fired Generator Retirements 2016-2020 by ISO/RTO (MW)
ISO 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total
PJM 6,275 2,636 2,127 7,317 335 327 0 0 155 19,172
MISO 394 220 215 1,152 3,092 3 0 0 344 5,420
SPP 35 15 38 335 988 0 0 0 0 1,411
ISONE 0 0 296 0 0 1,083 0 0 0 1,378
ERCOT 0 0 140 0 0 0 840 0 0 980
NYISO 84 74 0 0 380 0 0 0 0 538
CAISO 119 0 135 29 0 0 0 0 0 282
Other 2,666 3,065 1,506 5,828 1,721 3,318 1,628 379 1,255 21,366
Total 9,574 6,010 4,456 24,660 6,516 4,731 2,468 379 1,754 50,547
• Many coal-fired retirements between 2012-2015 attributed to MATS April 2015 compliance deadline; post-2015, unit economics perceived as primary retirement driver according to many regulatory analyses
Source: SNL Energy (S&P Global Market Intelligence)
ISO-NE PUBLIC ISO-NE PUBLIC
2016 OZONE SEASON
7
ISO-NE PUBLIC
2016 Preliminary Ozone Season Monitoring Data Highest Ozone values in New England > 70 ppb
8
9/14/2016
8/25/20168/12/20167/28/20167/21/20167/16/20167/12/20166/23/20166/7/20165/27/20165/12/2016
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.1
0.11
Abin
gton
Corn
wal
lDa
nbur
yE.
Har
tfor
dG
reen
wic
hG
roto
nM
adiso
nM
iddl
etow
nN
ew H
aven
Staf
ford
Stra
tfor
dW
estp
ort
Acad
ia N
P - C
adill
ac M
tn.
Acad
ia N
P - M
cFar
land
Kenn
ebun
kpor
tPo
rt C
lyde
Blue
Hill
Broc
kton
Chic
opee
Fairh
aven
Fall
Rive
rG
reen
field
Have
rhill
Lynn
Mar
tha'
s Vin
eyar
dN
ewbu
rypo
rtTr
uro
Uxb
ridge
War
eW
orce
ster
Keen
eLo
ndon
derr
yM
iller
Sta
te P
ark
Mt.
Was
hing
ton
Nas
hua
Rye
E. P
rovi
denc
e
Nar
raga
nset
t
W. G
reen
wic
h
Benn
ingt
on
ConnecticutMaine
Massachusetts
New HampshireRhode IslandVermont
2015: 82 exceedances 2016: 185 exceedances
Source: EPA, Preliminary 2016 Ozone Exceedances (Accessed October 20, 2016)
ISO-NE PUBLIC
Ozone Transport Commission (OTC): Monitoring Sites with Highest 2016 Ozone Season Values
9
120
80 75 70
0
50
100
150
1979 1997 2008 2015
Ozo
ne S
tand
ard
Leve
ls
(par
ts p
er b
illio
n)
Source: Ozone Transport Commission (September 2016)
ISO-NE PUBLIC
OTC: Preliminary 2014-2016 Ozone Season Design Values
10
120
80 75 70
0
50
100
150
1979 1997 2008 2015
Ozo
ne S
tand
ard
Leve
ls
(par
ts p
er b
illio
n)
States must submit nonattainment area designations to EPA by late 2016, current data suggests growing ozone nonattainment areas in southern New England
Source: Ozone Transport Commission (September 2016)
ISO-NE PUBLIC
OTC: Regional Modeled Annual NOx Emission Summary 2011, 2017 (Thousand Tons) New England Generator Emissions Much Lower Than Elsewhere
11
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0 11 17 11 17 11 17 11 17 11 17 11 17 11 17 11 17 11 17 11 17 11 17 11 17 11 17
CT DC DE MA MD ME NH NJ NY PA RI VA VT
2011 on left / 2017 on right Aircraft/
GSE Biogenic
Large EGU
Non-EGU
Non- point
Nonroad
Onroad
Rail/CMV Fires
Small EGU
2017
Source: Ozone Transport Commission (September 2016)
Aircraft/GSE
CMV/Rail
NONROAD
Small EGU
Non EGU
Large EGU
Onroad
Nonpoint
Biogenic
Fires
ISO-NE PUBLIC
New England All Fossil Monthly Generation (GWh) & NOX, SO2 Emissions (Short Tons)
12
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
Foss
il G
ener
atio
n Em
issio
ns (S
hort
Tons
)
Foss
il G
ener
atio
n (G
Wh)
COAL NATURAL GAS OIL LANDFILL GAS METHANE REFUSE STEAM WOOD NOX SO2
Sources: EPA (emissions); ISO-NE (generation)
ISO-NE PUBLIC ISO-NE PUBLIC
AIR QUALITY MATTERS IMPACTING GENERATORS Cross State Air Pollution Rule
Permitting Changes
Transported Air Pollution
13
ISO-NE PUBLIC
• October 26, 2015: EPA adopted more stringent ozone standard set at 70 parts per billion (ppb) – EPA estimated 241 counties
(mainly in California and Mid-Atlantic region) had ozone measurements > 70 ppb
• September 16, 2016: EPA revised exceptional events rule, exempting high ozone events during certain events
• October 2016: proposed 2015 ozone implementation rule released by Office of Management Budget (OMB), publication expected shortly – Area designations from States
due in late 2016 – EPA must act on designations
by late 2017 – Attainment due starting in
2020
• Litigation: D.C. Circuit has not scheduled arguments for consolidated challenges – Sierra Club v. EPA, 15-1490 (DC
Cir.)
14
EPA 2015 Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) Overview
Sources: EPA; MJ Bradley & Associates LLC
ISO-NE PUBLIC
Cross State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) Update Affects Fossil Generators Upwind, Outside of Region
CSAPR Update Adjust Allowance Budgets for Affected States • September 7, 2016: EPA updated
budgets for 22 eastern states that were found to significantly contribute to interstate transport of ozone season NOX – No New England generators are
subject to CSAPR – Massachusetts is proposing to
retain a slimmed down intra-state version of the older Clean Air Interstate Rule to comply with other Clean Air Act requirements
• Implementation begins in the 2017 ozone season, the last full ozone season prior to the July 2018 moderate nonattainment date
States Covered by Supplemental 2016 CSAPR Budget Update
15 Sources: EPA; SNL Energy (S&P Global Market Intelligence) Source: EPA (map)
ISO-NE PUBLIC
• August 24, 2016: EPA proposes revisions to the procedures for filing petitions for objections to Title V permits
• According to EPA, the proposed revisions would streamline and clarify the submission and review process, potentially reducing permitting delays
• Comment period closed on October 24, 2016 – 81 FR 57822
• Changes include: 1. clarify how petitions are to be
submitted; 2. describe the expected format
and content of petitions; 3. clarify that permitting authorities
are required to respond to public comments during the public comment period and provide the comments and response to EPA for its 45-day review period;
4. provide recommended practices for stakeholders to assure EPA has a complete record; and
5. provide information and EPA’s interpretation of steps to be taken after an EPA objection is granted
16
EPA Proposes Procedural Changes to Air Permit Challenges
Sources: EPA 81 FR 57822; Dinsmore & Shohl LLP
ISO-NE PUBLIC
EPA Proposes Approving Multi-State Interstate Transport of Air Pollution Rules
States Adopt Rules Avoiding Transported Air Pollution from Fossil Generators
• August 23, 2016: EPA proposes to approve State Implementation Plan (SIP) amendments for: – Maine – New Hampshire – Rhode Island – Vermont
• Using interstate air pollution modeling used to justify CSAPR, EPA finds these States have adopted rules providing protection for avoiding emissions from generators affecting attainment of the 2008 ozone standard in surrounding States – 81 FR 57519
Modeled Contribution to Downwind Ozone Nonattainment, Maintenance Areas
17
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Maine NewHampshire
RhodeIsland
Vermont Threshold
Nonattainment
Maintenance
Source: EPA 81 FR 57519
ISO-NE PUBLIC
• September 9, 2016: EPA approves State Implementation Plan (SIP) revision for NOx control measures – Affects several classes of
generators
• Allows allowing facilities to create or apply NOx emission credits using NOX Emission Trading and Agreement Orders (TAOs) to comply with the NOX emission limits – CT RCSA § 22a-174-22 – 81 FR 62378
• TAO require peaking units to purchase seven tons of credits for every one ton of actual emissions during high electric demand days (HEDD)
• Addresses 2008 Ozone SIP requirements, not the 2015 ozone standard requirements
• Part of a significant backlog of regulatory approvals affecting 2008 and 1997 ozone standards, which will need updating for 2015 ozone standard
18
EPA Approves Connecticut State NOX Emission Trading Orders as Plan Measures
Source: EPA 81 FR 62378
ISO-NE PUBLIC
2013 Petition to Enlarge Ozone Transport Region Litigation filed, EPA has yet to act on the Section 176A petition
Continuous Flow of Upwind State Pollution Frustrates Local Measures • October 6, 2016: New York, joined by
the states of Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York, asking the court to compel EPA to comply with its nondiscretionary duty under the Clean Air Act to approve or disapprove the petition
– New York v. Gina McCarthy, 16-7827 (SDNY)
• April 18, 2016: Northeastern states notify EPA of their intention to sue for EPA’s failure to act within 18 months as required by the Clean Air Act
Downwind States Seek Additional Controls on Upwind NOX Sources • December 10, 2013: Northeastern
states submitted a Section 176A petition asking EPA to add nine states shown through modelling and analysis to contribute to 2008 ozone standard, and are projected to contribute to 2015 standard, violations in the Ozone Region: – Illinois – Indiana – Kentucky – Michigan Ohio – Tennessee – Virginia – West Virginia
19
ISO-NE PUBLIC
Connecticut Seeking NOX Reductions from Brunner Island Station (PA)
CT Identifies Seek Upwind Air Pollution Reduction from Upwind
• August 23, 2016: EPA extends review of petition for six months (81 FR 48348)
• June 1, 2016: Connecticut DEEP submits Section 126 petition to EPA, asserting NOX emissions from Brunner Island significantly contributes to nonattainment and interferes with maintenance of the 2008 ozone national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) in Connecticut
Brunner Island Modeled Maximum Ozone Contribution
20 Source: CT DEEP
ISO-NE PUBLIC ISO-NE PUBLIC
WATER RULES UPDATE: COOLING WATER INTAKE STRUCTURES 316(B) RULE Proposed Rule 76 FR 22173(April 20, 2011)
Final Rule 79 FR 48299 (August 15, 2014)
21
ISO-NE PUBLIC
• December 17, 2014: various industry and environmental petitioners challenge 316(b) requirements, including: – Whether EPA should have
designated closed-cycle cooling as best technology available for reducing adverse impact on aquatic life and habitat
– Control technology flexibility and discretion,
– New unit criteria and control requirements
• Originally brought before 4th Circuit, removed to 2nd Circuit – Cooling Water Intake Structure
Coalition, et al v. EPA, 14-4645
• February 6, 2017: Final briefs due from all parties
• October 12, 2016: EPA’s response brief due
• May 20, 2016: petitioner’s briefs due
• March 14, 2016: 2nd Circuit sets briefing schedule
22
Cooling Water Intake Structure 316(b) Rule Litigation Update
Sources: EPA; MJ Bradley & Associates LLC
ISO-NE PUBLIC 23