ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY AND HUMAN SECURITY: THE ROLE OF CLIMATE

CHANGE

Nay Htun, PhD, FIC.*Professor of Environmental Sustainability,

Stony Brook Southampton,State University of New York

Extramural Lecture, AIT27 May 2008.

*Fellow and Visiting Professor Imperial College London;Visiting Professor and Sr. Advisor Lund University, Sweden; (Former UN Asst. Sec-General UNEP, UNDP)

CLIMATE CHANGE

ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY

HUMAN SECURITY

ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY***THE CRITICAL BUILDING BLOCKS***

• ATMOSPHERE : composition, temperature, physical state

• HYDROSPHERE: composition, precipitation, quantity constant, accessibility, rivers, lakes, oceans, coastal zones, hydro-cycle

• GEOSPHERE-BIOSPHERE, LITHOSPHERE: weathering of geosphere to form soils, provides terrestrial plants with a firm substrate and vital nutrients and minerals needed for plant growth.

• LINKGAGES AND INTERACTIONS BETWEEN SPHERES WHICH NURTURE LIFE SUPPORT SYSTEMS.

2007 IPCC REPORT

2007 IPCC REPORT

2007 IPCC REPORT

ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY UNDER INCREASING PRESSURES

• ANTHROPOGENIC ACTIVITIES DISCHARGING AND EMITTING INCREASING QUANTITIES OF WASTES, POLLUTANTS EG. GHGs, OZONE LAYER DEPLETING SUBSTANCES, PERSISTENT ORGANIC, (POPs), HEAVY METALS

• “NATURAL DISASTERS” exacerbated by anthropogenic activities. Hydro-meteorological, geological and biological disasters increased from 71(1900-1909) to 2711 (1990-1999) 396 in 2006*

• INCREASING ENVIRONMENTAL REFUGEES, MORE PRESSURE ON ENVIRONMENT, ECONOMIC AND HUMAN SYSTEMS

• CONSEQUENCES FOR HUMAN HEALTH AND WELL BEING

* UN International Decade for Disaster Reduction (IDNDR)

EMERGING CONCERNS WITH ENVIRONMENT, ECOSYSTEM AND CLIMATE CHANGES

• PERMAFROST AND GREENLAND MELTING• GLACIERS MELTING AND LAKES BURSTING• ATMOSPHERIC BROWN CLOUD HOVERING

OVER CONTINENTS • GLOBAL WARMING• SEA LEVEL RISING• HUMIDITY INCREASING• MORE FAVOURABLE FOR INSECT, BACTERIA,

VIRUS, MOLD, FUNGUS• BALLAST WATER DISCHARGE• ALIEN INVASIVE SPECIES INCREASING

SOME LINKED & CONVERGING IMPLICATIONS

• FOOD SECURITY• WATER STRESS• WATER QUALITY• INFECTIOUS DISEASES • ALLERGY• RESPIRATORY ILLNESS• NEW DISEASES• ZOONOSES• DISASTERS

DISEASES & FOOD SECURITY

SOME EXAMPLES:• COLONY COLLAPSE DISORDER honey

bees affecting US$ 14 billion per year of US agriculture, attributed to pesticides, mites, fungus, virus and environmental changes.

• PACIFIC SALMON heavy losses and extinction in Western Canada and US, caused by sea lice breeding on farmed salmon.

• FROG POPULATIONS severely affected , extinct, due to increase of chytrid disease caused by fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis

DESTRUCTIONS AND DISASTERS

• INFRASTRUCTURES• HUMAN SETTLEMENTS• ECOSYSTEMS * Atmosphere, land, forests,

rivers, lakes, coastal zones, biodiversity

• ECONOMIC SYSTEMS• SOCIAL AND CULTURAL

PATRIMONY

Destructions

Diseases

Environmental Refugees

Disasters Climate Change

INFECTIOUS DISEASES

• GROUP OF EIGHT SUMMIT, ST. PETERSBURG ’06“ A VIGOROUS RESPONSE TO THE THREAT OF

INFECTIOUS DISEASES, THE LEADING CAUSE OF DEATHS WORLD WIDE, IS ESSENTIAL TO GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AND TO THE WELL-BEING OF THE WORLD’S POPULATION. MAJOR DISEASES SUCH AS HIV / AIDS, TUBERCLOSIS, MALARIA AND MEASELS CONTINUE TO EXACT A HEAVY TOLL ON ECONOMIES AND SOCIETIES AROUND THE WORLD, PARTICULARLY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, IMPEDING ACHIEVEMENTS OF THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS”

“– CLEAN WATER, SANITATION, EMERGENCE OF HIGHLY PATHOGENIC AVIAN INFLUENZA WITH THE ACCOMPANYING POSSIBILITY OF HUMAN PANDEMIC, DEMANDS OUR IMMEDIATE ATTENTION”

WHO 2006 REPORTS

• “24% of global disease burdens and 23% of all deaths can be attributed to environmental factors. Of the 102 major diseases --- environmental risk factors contributed to disease burdens in 85 categories”

• “Children 0 – 14 yrs. of age, the proportion of deaths attributed to the environment was as high as 36%

EUROPEAN ENVIRONMENT AGENCY

EUROPE’S ENVIRONMENT --- THE FOURTH ASSESSMENT” OCT 2007

“Despite some success with air pollution, current levels– mainly nitrogen oxide, fine particles and ground level ozone – are estimated to shorten average life expectancy in Western and Central European countries by almost one year and threaten the health development of children. In Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia, the situation is assumed to be similarly bleak”

(53 Countries, total population 870 million)

IPCC FOURTH ASSESSMENT REPORT 2007

• More endemic morbidity and mortality due to increase in vector borne diseases , primarily from floods and droughts.

• Increase cholera incidence with increasing water temperatures

• Increased risks of infectious, respiratory and skin diseases

• Migration and disasters related health effects

MALARIA

Yearly one million deaths and 500 million become severely ill

Warming effects and extreme weather events would precipitate large outbreaks

Increase range of mosquitoes which spread malaria

WEST NILE

•Affects humans, horses and over 130 species of birds

•Warm weather and droughts play role in amplifying

DENGUE

•Current outbreak in Asia Pacific attributed to climate change and global warming

ASTHMA

• In US prevalence has quadrupled since 1980

•New drivers include increased levels of CO2, which increases plant pollens, soil fungi, fine particles, micro-organisms

INCREASING AWARENESS & CONCERNS WITH CONVERGENCE OF ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY

AND HUMAN SECURITY

SOME RECENT EXAMPLES:• April 2007 New York Times Editorial “Warming and Global

Security”• April 2007 CNA Corporation, a US national security think

tank released report by 11 retired Admirals and Generals who argued that climate change is a “threat multiplier”

• January 2007 UN Security Council first ever debate on climate change. UK’s former Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett said “What makes war start? Fights over water, changing patterns of rainfall” and warned that global warming not limited to adverse environmental effects, and the global population would be wise to consider “consequences people have not been thinking about”

RESPONSE OPTIONS ?

NEW PARADIGM:Normative meansEconomic InstrumentsTechnologiesEducation, training, information InstitutionsGovernance

TOWARDS

TRANSFORMATIONAL CHANGES IMPERATIVE

PARADIGM CHANGE

• CONSUMPTION PATTERNS, e.g. *Energy, water, carbon & material

footprint reduction, low carbon economy.

• PRODUCTION SYSTEMS e.g. * Zero emissions * Biomimetics * Nano materials and applications

PARADIGM CHANGE

• ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS: Subsidies, taxes, loans, financing mechanisms, cap and trade, CDM, etc

• NORMATIVE MEANS• INSTITUTIONAL SYSTEMS Governance Administration Education

PARADIGM CHANGE---Human Behavior---

• THINK & ACT “OUTSIDE-BOX”

• CARING, SHARING, RESPECT, HARMONY, PEACE:

Nature Neighbors Ourselves

GREENING REVOLUTION

A FUTURE THAT IS CLEAN SAFE SECURE SUSTAINED

ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY

HUMAN SECURITY

FREEDOM FROM WANTFREEDOM FROM FEARFREEDOM TO CHOOSE