Environmental Science: Implications for Management

Jennie C. StephensAssistant Professor of Environmental Science and Policy (ES&P)International Development, Community, and Environment (IDCE)

Lecture for MGMT 5505: Green Business ManagementSeptember 14, 2009

OverviewI. Earth’s Systems - Integrated environmental problems of water, air and climateII.An Unprecedented Challenge: Climate Change and Energy III.Implications for Management

Earth’s Systems Complexity, Cycles & Interconnections

• A system is a collection of interdependent parts (with flows and stores) enclosed within a defined boundary.

• The earth has four major systems– Lithosphere – soil, rock– Hydrosphere - water– Biosphere – living organisms– Atmosphere – air

• Human activity is disruptingthese systems in complex,ways

Dave McKay, 2009

Lithosphere

Glencoe Text, csc.gallaudet.edu

Hydrosphere: The Water Cycle

Biosphere

Figure source from Yucca Mountain websitewww.yuccamountain.org/main/newslett1005.htm

Atmosphere

Source: http://csep10.phys.utk.edu/astrowiki/

Unprecedented change in past 50

years

Environmental changeSocietal Change

Technical Change

Steffen, Crutzen et al 2007

System Structure• Positive Relationship between

system parts• Increase in one part means

increase in another• Decrease in one part means

decrease in another• Symbolized with a• Amplifies behavior

• Negative Relationship between system parts

• Increase in one part means a decrease in another

• Decrease in one part means increase in another

• Symbolized with a• Balances behavior+ -

A complex, dynamic system (e.g. a living organism) consists of many positive and negative relationships

Feedback Loops The effects of a disturbance on a system can be evaluated using the

notion of a feedback loop.

Why are Earth’s Systems Difficult to Manage?

• Unpredictability (stochastic behavior)

• Variance is the degree or dispersion or scatter in a variable (large variance means low predictability)

• Unpredictability and extreme events make it difficult to manage environmental systems

• Complexity– The number of storages, flows, and the number and strength

of feedback loops in a system

The Scientific Method

Reductionistic versus Systems• A Reductionist Approach is based on a premise that the best

way to learn about something is to break it into its parts and study parts separately.

• This approach has been quite successful in the natural sciences (biology, chemistry, physics)

• Limits of the reductionist approach

• General Systems Theory- concerned with problems of relationships, structures, and interdependence, rather than constant attributes of object.

• Integrated Systems Approach

Sustainability ScienceAn emerging field defined by the urgent problems it addresses rather

than the disciplines it employs

Use-inspired research defined by urgent and complex problems rather than disciplines

Integrated education to prepare society to deal

with increasingly complex, interconnected

urgent problems

Connecting knowledge and action, researchers working with

practitioners

What are some examples of interconnecting challenges?

• The earth has four major systems– Lithosphere – soil, rock– Hydrosphere - water– Biosphere – living organisms– Atmosphere – air

• Human activity is disruptingthese systems in complex,ways

Dave McKay, 2009

OverviewEarth’s Systems - Integrated environmental problems

An Unprecedented Challenge: Climate Change and Energy

Implications for Management

CO2 CH4 NOx, others (CFCs, PFCs)

Evidence that climate is changing (cont)

In addition to temperature observations over recent decades also show that…

• Evaporation & rainfall are increasing;• Permafrost is melting;• Corals are bleaching;• Glaciers are retreating;• Sea ice is shrinking;• Sea level is rising;• Wildfires are increasing;• Storm & flood damages are soaring.

Why is climate change most serious and most difficult to manage of all environmental problems?

• Climate is the envelope for all of earth’s systems– Truly global impacts, everyone will be influenced somehow

• Resulting primarily from burning fossil fuels, the foundation of world economies– Changing status quo of our energy system extremely difficult

• Uncertainty and complexity unlike other issues– uncertainty cuts both ways, uncertainty makes issue more serious not less– Scientific arguments has confused the public

• Time lag makes management/planning difficult– Steps taken now will have uncertain impacts on the future– Difficult for political or business leaders to demonstrate climate

improvements

Increasing CO2

concentrations

050

100150200250300350400450500

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

Year

EJ/

year

GasOilCoalNuclearHydro +Biomass

Increasing energy demand

Climate Change is Primarily an Energy Problem

Energy for heat, light, and mobilityU.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Source and Sector, 2004

IEA, 2006

Total = 17,450 billion kWh

Electricity sector is also mostly fossil fuel

About 1/3 of primary energy is used to generate electricity.

About 2/3 of this comes from fossil fuels.

Other renewable

2004

Holdren, 2007

CO2 Emissions per person

Source: UNEP

Armond Cohen, CATF, 2007

OverviewEarth’s Systems - Integrated environmental problems

An Unprecedented Challenge: Climate Change and Energy

Implications for Management

Societal responses to climate change

Mitigation: attempting to reduce the impacts of climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Transforming our energy system.

Adaptation: Adjusting to new conditions, increasing resilience to change, capacity building

Suffering: Some degree of suffering is inevitable and already occurring

Most climate policy debates focus on mitigation, but adaptation is becoming increasingly important

Integrated Consideration of Problems/Challenges & How to Address them

Environmental Changes Technical Changes

More efficient technologiesLow-carbon energy, etc.

Societal ChangesPolicyBehavior ChangeGlobalizationGreater inequality & polarization

Climate changeBiodiversity lossDeforestationWater degradationAir pollution

Renewable energy technologies

Wind

Geothermal

Solar

Hydro

What Climate Policy’s Have been Implemented?Global UNFCC 1992 agreement to achieve “Stabilization of GHG

concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system…”

Kyoto Protocol, 1997. National commitments to reductions below 1990 levels during 2008-2012

» Once 55% of industrial emissions ratified (Russia in Nov. 2004) entered into force Feb. 2005

Copenhagen – post-kyoto Negotiations in December 2009

National - 2002 Bush administration announced would not sign Kyoto – instead committed to reducing GHG intensity (GHG/$GDP)

Regional - California – Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI)

Local – Worcester Climate Action Plan

» 20% renewable energy by 2010– Institutional Policy

» Businesses» Universities – President’s Climate Commitment

US Climate Action Partnership: Business and NGO Partnership

Resistance to social change to address climate change is reducing, butstill very difficult to change the status quo reliance on fossil fuels.

• Recommend U.S. legislation to slow, stop, and reverse the growth of GHG emissions

• Leadership will assure long-term U.S. competitiveness• Mandatory, but flexible approaches to managing carbon,

encourage developing countries– Influence transportation, large point sources, and energy use in

buildings (commercial and residential)– Market based, cap & trade, tax reform, RD&D, etc.

• International cooperation• Incentives for technology, near-term action (before

mandatory limits), • Goal for CO2 450-550ppm• Uniform price for GHG emissions across sectors

US Climate Action Partnership: Business and NGO Partnership

Challenge of Climate Change Management in Institutions of Higher Education

• 2007 -Clark signed the Presidents Climate Commitment – Pledging Carbon Neutrality

• Clark’s Climate Action Plan – climate neutral by 2030; enhance integration of sustainability into the University’s planning, decision-making processes and behaviors.

Concluding Remarks on the Climate/Energy Challenge

As a global citizenClimate change - the most serious environmental threat to human civilization.

Demand for action growing.

As a scientistNo “silver bullet” technical solution exists – need to explore and move forward with a portfolio of technological and social change options

As a policy analystImproved understanding of science and technology by the public and policy makers will increase our chances of mitigating disastrous impacts

As a teacherWe will increasingly be confronted with the unprecedented challenges of

climate change, so critical to engage students on this issue.