Environmental Problems

Foundations of Science

Natural Cause: The universe behaves in a predictable way under “rules” that can be determined through observation and experimentation.Uniformity: The “rules” are constant through space and time.

Foundations of Science

Parsimony: All other things being equal, the simplest explanation is the best.Efficient Cause

cause & effect

Objective

Scientific “Method”

ObservationQuestionHypothesizeTest & ObservePublishRepeat (as necessary)

TheorizePublishRepeat (as necessary)

Environmental Science

interdisciplinarya way of looking at things

scientific (& objective)interconnected systemshuman impact vs naturally occurring•attempt to assign “responsibility”

What is the Environment?definitions

circumstances or conditions that surround an organism or group of organismsthe complex of social or cultural conditions that affect an individual or community

for humans - our home - well suited to our existence

natural world• plants• animals• earth• air• water

“man-made”• sociological• scientific• technological

“Tragedy of the Commons”

common propertyusually owned by all (or the government)examples

• air• water• “air waves”• public land

commons are subject to poor useopen, unregulated accessbenefits of use are focusedcosts are widely distributed

Common Property

must be carefully managedmay privatize

cost of use & effects• internalization of costs• laws and taxes

commons (difficult)•sale of public land•sale of right to use

Global Climate ChangeEarth’s climate has been changing for over 4.5 billion yearswide scale of variabilitycauses of variability

Sunphysical Earth life

Research Priorities

What is the scale of the current change?What are the causes of the current warming?What are the effects of human activity?

Tools to Study Global Change

geologic recordhistorical recordreal time observationmathematical modeling

Energy Balancealmost all energy ultimately from sunearth’s energy cycle

incoming energy• reflected 30%• absorbed 70% (visible & IR)

outgoing energy emitted as IR• (as much energy as received)

Earth warmed by energy between absorption and emissionenergy circulated by air and water movement

Earth’s Temperature

atmospheric retention of heat“greenhouse effect”H2O vapor, CO2, CH4, CFC’s

released by natural & human processes

Earth’s Temperature

historicallyover last billion years: warmer with ice agescurrent ice age• 2MYA to present: cooler with

“interglacials”• last glacial advance ended 10,000 yrs

ago• generally warming since

warming rapidly in last 150 years

Earth’s TemperatureCO2 changes

currently: 0.03% of atmosphererecent highs

• “interglacial periods”• 125K yrs ago and now

releasing stored CO2 from rocks & plants• natural• humans

current increase started in 1800's

other “greenhouse” gasseshuman’s have increased release rate

Potential Effects of Global Warming

local climate changemore rainmore violent storms

sea level risechange in ocean circulation

complex response

Current Research On-line

http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange1/current/lectures/samson/climate_patterns/http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.htmlhttp://www.mos.org/cst/article/3369/http://www.scotese.com/climate.htmhttp://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ei/ei_cover.htmlhttp://www4.nas.edu/onpi/webextra.nsf/web/climate?OpenDocument

More research and advocacy on-line

American Petroleum Institute:http://api-ec.api.org/environ/index.cfmindustry site

Natural Resources Defense Council:http://www.nrdc.org/globalwarming/environmental organization

Global Warming Information Page:http://www.globalwarming.org/“astroturf” site (no direct supporters listed)

Global Warming Early Warning Signs:http://www.climatehotmap.org/“environmentalist” site (supporters listed)

the Global Simulation Workshophttp://www.osearth.com/workshops/commercial “environmentalist” site

worldwide use of energy

overalloil - 36%coal - 26%natural gas - 23%nuclear - 7%biomass – 6%hydro - 2%geothermal & wind - 1%

U.S. consumes ¼ of worlds energy