Environmental Management Systems1st part Autumn Semester 2010Jenő Miklós SUDA, PhD (suda@ara.bme.hu)Dept. Fluid Mechanics („AE” building)Faculty of Mechanical Engineering

2nd+3rd week lecture

2010.09.15.2010.09.22.

The 2nd EMS lecture focuses on:- „sustainable development”, definitionSCIENTIFIC FACTS: - Earth’s atmosphere- greenhouse effect with GHGs (greenhouse gases)- climate on Earth, influencing parameters as:- temperature, change of ~- water, resources, temperature, precipitation- potential climate changes impact (temp., see level, precipitation)- inpacts on : health, agriculture, forests, water resources, coastal areas, species and natural areas- impact of mankind on environment- population growth, population vs. GDP, industrial aspects

Environmental Management Systems

Introduction to sustainable development:

Scientific background

Prof. Ruben Mnatsakanian,

Central European University

Budapest, Hungary

12 October 2004

Definitions of “Sustainable Development”

• Most sustainability definitions originate from the relationships between humans and the resources they use. Students at Oregon State University collected 75 definitions of sustainability, 65% of them explicitly identified sustainability as resource management and use practices

• In many cases the sustainability goal is being applied only to the economic/social part of the development process, while the ecological part is considered as a background on the stage where economy is developing

From: Voinov, Smith, www.uvm.edu/giee/AV/PUBS/DS/Sust_Dim.html

Classical definition:

” Economic and social development that meets the needs of the current generation without undermining the ability of future generations to meet their own needs".

(formulated in 1987 by the World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED), otherwise known as the Brundtland Commission)

Rio Conference, 1992:

• Agenda 21 - Principle 1

– Human beings are at the centre of concerns for sustainable development. They are entitled to a healthy and productive life in harmony with nature

Comparison of Earth with neighboring planets

What makes Earth unique planet in our Solar system:

• Range of temperatures which allows water to be present in all three forms (solid, liquid and gaseous), which is essential for cycles of elements

• Presence of oxygen in the atmosphere which is due to functioning of living organisms during billions of years

• Oxygen allows formation of ozone layer, protecting life forms from deadly ultra-violet radiation

• Presence of Moon which stabilizes Earth’s orbit.

Structure of Earth’s Atmosphere

The atmosphere begins at sea level, and its first layer, the troposphere, extends from 8 to 16 km from Earth’s surface. The air in the troposphere consists of the following proportions of gases: 78 percent nitrogen, 21 percent oxygen, 0.9 percent argon, 0.03 percent carbon dioxide, and the remaining 0.07 percent is a mixture of hydrogen, water, ozone, neon, helium, krypton, xenon, and other trace components.

Climate on Earth is subject to cyclic changes

• There were at least four major glacial periods during the last half million years, with interglacial periods lasting about 20-30 000 years

• During the periods of maximum cooling glaciers were covering huge areas in North America

and Europe• Sea level at the peaks of glaciations was nearly 100

meters lower than present• Currently we are living in interglacial period that

ended roughly 8000-10000 years ago• There is certain evidence that changes between

glacial and interglacial periods in the past took place over relatively short periods of time (50-100 t years)

Why worry about human intervention?

Never in the past CO2 concentration was at such a high level !

Maximum level of past fluctuations

Atmospheric lifetime of pollutants

• Crucial factor for assessment of air pollution is so-called atmospheric lifetime (how long single molecule of a particulate pollutant can stay in the atmosphere before it is removed)

• For many pollutants which are causing global effects (like global warming or ozone depletion atmospheric lifetime may be as long as 75-120 years)

• It means that even if we stop all pollution at once negative effects of accumulated pollutants can be felt decades later. There is a lot of inertia in the system.

Role of human factor in carbon cycle

2010.09.15: Significant climatic anomalies and events in 2003. Average global temperature was third warmest on record. There has been a rise

in global temperature of 0.6°C since 1900.

(Sources: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA, United States and WMO)

Combined annual land (near surface) and sea-surface temperature anomalies from 1861-2003 (departures in degrees Celsius from the average in the 1961-1990 base period) for

(a) the globe; (b) the northern hemisphere north of 30°N; (c) the Tropics (30°N-30°S); and (d) the southern hemisphere south of 30°S. The solid red curves have had subdecadal

time scale variations smoothed with a binomial filter. Anomalies (in degrees Celsius) for 2003 are: +0.46 (a); +0.71 (b); +0.45 (c); and +0.15 (d).

(Sources: IPCC, 2001 and Hadley Centre, The Met Office, and Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK).

Monthly sea-ice extent anomalies for 1973- 2003 (departures in millions of km2 from the average in the 1973-2003 base period) for (a) the Arctic and (b) the Antarctic. The values

are derived from satellite passive microwave sounder data.

(Source: Hadley Centre, The Met Office, UK)

Arctic Ice in 1979

Arctic Ice in 2003

What is the potential climate changes impact?

Global changes in

-average temparature

-see level, see-ice extent

-precipitation trends

IMPACT on HEALTH

dengue = tropical (or „African”) fever

IMPACT on HEALTH

Diseases, potentially affected by climate change

IMPACT on HEALTH

IMPACT on AGRICULTURE

IMPACT on WATER RESOURCES

IMPACT on COSTAL AREAS

IMPACT on COSTAL AREAS

-The Maldives

-The Maldives is one of the lowest lying countries in the world and is threatened by sea level rise and other climate change impacts like increased sea temperatures. It was the first country to sign the Kyoto protocol in 1997.

IMPACT on COSTAL AREAS

The Netherlands

In the last years it seems to be an agreed upon fact that sea levels are certainly on the rise due to global climate change. Over the past 100 years, the seas have been climbing approximately 1.8mm per annum. Scientists have more recently been recording a rise of approximately 3.1mm per year (over the past 15 years) indicating that this rise-rate is increasing.

IMPACT on COSTAL AREAS

The Netherlands

IMPACT on COSTAL AREAS

The Netherlands, more

- mainly built on reclaimed land,

- sits in a delta (where two rivers (Rhine and Meuse) flow into the North Sea.

-a massive flood (1953) caused severe damage – killing nearly two thousand people and flooding over 150,000 hectares of land.

-the aftermath of this devastation – just twenty days later – the Delta commission was born. The Delta commission was conceived to increase the safety of the Delta area of Holland without shutting down the seaways De Niuwe Waterweg and the Western Schelde (which connect to the prosperous ports of Rotterdam and Antwerp).

-creating the best defensive system of natural barriers, levees, dams, storm surge barricades, dunes, etc.,

-the Delta Commission was successful at ‘climate proofing’ (their term for resisting flooding) the Netherlands for 1:10,000 year floods (for comparison, New Orleans is striving for 1:100 year levels by 2011).

-Although, the risk seems low, the land below sea level in the Netherlands accounts for sixty-five percent of its GDP (approximately $450 billion per year), not to mention a population of 11 Million residents.

IMPACT on COSTAL AREAS

Find on YOUTUBE:

-New York City: view after a 3..5 meters sea level rise

Population „involved” would be: 1,537,195

3 meter sea level rise

5 meter sea level rise

IMPACT on COSTAL AREAS

Find on YOUTUBE:

-New York City view would be…

IMPACT on COSTAL AREAS

Find more virtual see level rise simulations on YOUTUBE:

for example:

-Amazon basin

-US Gulf cost (see level 40m higher)

-Northern Europe (see level 40m higher)

Impact of mankind on the environment

I = P . A . T

where:

I- impact

P- population

A- affluence

T- technology

(Ehrilch & Holdren, 1971)

Evolution of “sustainable development” ideas

• I = P A T

• P - we should limit population growth! (Thomas Malthus, An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798) and his followers)

• A - we should stop consumption! (Limits to Growth report, 1972)

• T - we should develop, but in sustainable way! (Conf. on Sust. Development, CSD 1987 NY)

Anamorphoses of Global GDP and Population

POPULATION

POPULATION

Population growth since 10000 BC

POPULATION

POPULATION

POPULATION

Stages of demographic transition

•

Population Growth

POPULATION

POPULATION

POPULATION

POPULATION

Population Pyramid in Group 1 Country

POPULATION

Population Pyramid in Group 2 Country

POPULATION

Population Pyramid in Group 3 Country

POPULATION

Russian Population Pyramid, 1989 and 2002

POPULATION

Duration of demographic transition

Country Beginning End Duration M

France 1785 1970 185 1.62

Sweden 1810 1960 150 3.83

Germany 1876 1965 89 2.11

f. USSR 1895 1965 70 2.05

India 1920 2010 90 3.67

Mexico 1920 2000 80 2.95

China 1930 2000 70 2.46

Egypt 1946 2010 64 3.88

World 1960 2050 90 3.0

Source: S.Kapitsa, 2001

POPULATION

Population pyramids in France, Sweden, Germany and Italy at various stages of Demographic Transition

POPULATION

Population Pyramids for Developed and Developing Countries, 1985 and 2025

POPULATION

A population growing at a constant 1% per year would double in 70 years (69.3 years, to be exact). 2% annual growth means 35 years doubling time, etc.

0 1 11 1,01 1,022 1,02 1,043 1,03 1,064 1,04 1,085 1,05 1,106 1,06 1,137 1,07 1,158 1,08 1,179 1,09 1,20

10 1,10 1,2211 1,12 1,2412 1,13 1,2713 1,14 1,2914 1,15 1,3215 1,16 1,3516 1,17 1,3717 1,18 1,4018 1,20 1,4319 1,21 1,4620 1,22 1,4921 1,23 1,5222 1,24 1,5523 1,26 1,5824 1,27 1,6125 1,28 1,6426 1,30 1,6727 1,31 1,7128 1,32 1,7429 1,33 1,7830 1,35 1,8131 1,36 1,8532 1,37 1,8833 1,39 1,9234 1,40 1,9635 1,42 2,0036 1,43 2,0437 1,45 2,0838 1,46 2,1239 1,47 2,1640 1,49 2,2141 1,50 2,2542 1,52 2,3043 1,53 2,3444 1,55 2,3945 1,56 2,4446 1,58 2,4947 1,60 2,5448 1,61 2,5949 1,63 2,6450 1,64 2,6951 1,66 2,7552 1,68 2,8053 1,69 2,8654 1,71 2,9155 1,73 2,9756 1,75 3,0357 1,76 3,0958 1,78 3,1559 1,80 3,2260 1,82 3,2861 1,83 3,3562 1,85 3,4163 1,87 3,4864 1,89 3,5565 1,91 3,6266 1,93 3,6967 1,95 3,7768 1,97 3,8469 1,99 3,9270 2,01 4,00

Y 1% 2%

POPULATION

POPULATION

Shape of countries as proportion of their population, 1950 and 2050 (projection)

POPULATION

Size of countries as proportion of their GDP, 2000

Source: UNEP GRID-Arendal, 2004

POPULATION and GDP

Population and GDP, % of world total, by regions

Source: UNEP GRID-Arendal, 2004

POPULATION and GDP

POPULATION and GDP

POPULATION and GDP

POPULATION and GDP

POPULATION and GDP

IPCCThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading body for the assessment of climate change established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences. The IPCC is a scientific body. It reviews and assesses:

-the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate change.

-It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute to the work of the IPCC on a voluntary basis.

-Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current information. Differing viewpoints existing within the scientific community are reflected in the IPCC reports.

-The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and it is open to all member countries of UN and WMO. Governments are involved in the IPCC work as they can participate in the review process and in the IPCC plenary sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC work programme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved.

-The IPCC embodies a unique opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision makers. By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive.

The IPCC scenarios

Emphasis on sustainability and equityEmphasis on material wealth

Globalisation

Regionalisation

B1

B2A2

A1

“Markets first” “Policy First”

“Security first” “Sustainability first”

What scenarios assume:• The Markets First scenario envisages a world in

which market-driven developments converge on the values and expectations that prevail in industrialized countries

• In a Policy First world, strong actions are undertaken by governments in an attempt to reach specific social and environmental goals

• The Security First scenario assumes a world of great disparities, where inequality and conflict prevail, brought about by socio-economic and environmental stresses

• Sustainability First pictures a world in which a new development paradigm emerges in response to the challenge of sustainability, supported by new, more equitable values and institutions

… ECONOMY ?

SRES- IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios

Markets FirstPolicy First

Security First

Sustainability First

… POPULATION ?

Markets FirstPolicy First

Security First

Sustainability First

See also: www.ipcc.ch

….Development First

• Start from development priorities, not from climate change

• Objectives of development / poverty eradication must be met, but with ...

.... development strategies that aim for:– climate safe development, i.e. development that

leads to low vulnerability to climate change – climate friendly development, i.e. development that

leads to low GHG emissions

• Build international agreements and collaboration to support these national strategies

See also: www.developmentfirst.org