ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT SCOPING REPORT …stopstanstedexpansion.com/documents/UTT_17_1640_SO... · ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT SCOPING REPORT ... Road access N . ... 1.13

June 2017

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT SCOPING REPORT

STANSTED AIRPORT 35MPPA +

PROJECT

Our Ref: JCG22596 RPS 140 London Wall London EC2Y 5DN Tel: 020 7280 3300 Email: [email protected]

22596 – Stansted Airport EIA Scoping Report 2/75

CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................... 3 2 FORECASTS AND EIA ASSESSMENT YEARS ................................................................................... 8 3 PLANNING CONTEXT TO THE PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT ......................................................... 12 4 GENERAL APPROACH TO THE EIA .................................................................................................. 18 5 CONSULTATION .................................................................................................................................. 24 6 CONSTRUCTION PROGRAMME AND EFFECTS .............................................................................. 25 7 SURFACE ACCESS & TRANSPORT .................................................................................................. 27 8 AIR NOISE ............................................................................................................................................ 31 9 GROUND NOISE .................................................................................................................................. 37 10 SURFACE ACCESS NOISE ................................................................................................................. 40 11 AIR QUALITY ........................................................................................................................................ 42 12 SOCIO-ECONOMIC EFFECTS ............................................................................................................ 47 13 CARBON ............................................................................................................................................... 52 14 CLIMATE CHANGE .............................................................................................................................. 58 15 PUBLIC HEALTH AND WELLBEING .................................................................................................. 65 16 NON-SIGNIFICANT/ NON-EIA TOPICS............................................................................................... 70 17 STRUCTURE OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL STATEMENT .................................................................. 74


1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Stansted Airport Limited (STAL) intends to submit a planning application to Uttlesford District Council (UDC), to facilitate making the best use of the existing single runway. This will include amending the existing cap on the number of passengers from 35 million passengers per annum (mppa) to 44.5mppa, as well as an associated increase in aircraft movements (passenger and cargo air traffic movements (ATMs), plus General Aviation) from the existing permitted total of 274,000 to 285,000 per annum – representing a net increase of 11,000 movements or 3.9%.

1.2 The planning application will seek permission for additional airfield infrastructure. This will comprise two new links to the runway, six additional stands on the mid airfield (Yankee Remote Stands) and three additional stands at the north eastern end of the Airport (Echo Stands).

1.3 Collectively, the lifting of the existing passenger and movement caps and the construction of the airfield infrastructure comprise the ‘proposed development’ for which planning permission will be sought from UDC under the Town and Country Planning Act 2015.

1.4 All other infrastructure (e.g. terminals, piers and car parking etc.), which will accommodate the projected increase in passenger numbers, either already has planning permission or will be built out under the Permitted Development (PD) rights at the required time. As such, these elements do not form part of the forthcoming application, nor do they need to be addressed in the accompanying Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), except in relation to the way they may influence the future physical baseline of the Airport.

1.5 This Scoping Report has the objective of informing UDC and other Stakeholders of the technical scope, assumptions and methodology of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) of the proposed development and thereafter to seek agreement to this scope by way of a formal Scoping Opinion from UDC in accordance with Regulation 15 of the Town and Country Planning (Environmental Impact Assessment) Regulations 2017 (‘the EIA Regulations’), which came into effect on 16th May 2017. These new EIA Regulations enact EU Directive 2014/52/EU (Directive 2014/52/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council amending Directive 2011/92/EU on the assessment of the effects of certain public and private projects on the environment).

1.6 This report explains the planning background and principal elements for the proposed development, as well as outlining the Airport’s projected growth (i.e. ATM and passenger forecasts) which underpin the need case for the proposed development. It then sets out in detail the intended scope of the EIA in respect of those topics which can be considered to have the potential to give rise to ‘significant effects on the environment’. It also describes those topics which are proposed to be scoped out of the EIA, in agreement with UDC, on the basis that they will remain substantially unaffected by the proposed development and/or do not have the potential to give rise to significant environmental effects.

1.7 In accordance with convention and best practice standards, the focus of the EIA will be on assessing the difference in environmental effects between the ‘Do Minimum’ Scenario, whereupon the existing 35mppa passenger cap and ATM limits are retained and the ‘Do Something’ scenario under which the Airport is allowed to continue to grow and to make best use of its existing single runway (i.e. up to its realistic maximum capacity of 285,000 flights conveying 44.5mppa) which is projected to occur at 2029, as described in Section 2 of this report. The ES will therefore assess and describe the incremental changes in effects (e.g. air noise) between these two scenarios, adopting 2029 as the ‘Principal Assessment Year’.


1.8 The existing (or baseline) environmental conditions at the Airport will be collated as part of the EIA process and presented in the ES. This information will be used in the modelling and extrapolation of data to inform the impact assessment work, or otherwise be presented for the purpose of context. The Baseline Year for different topics will be either 2015 or 2016, depending on the availability of full calendar datasets.

Site Location and Context

1.9 Stansted Airport lies in a predominantly rural setting wholly within the local authority administrative district of Uttlesford in the county of Essex, as shown in Figure 1.1 below.

1.10 To the east of the Airport boundary, some 8kms (5 miles) is Great Dunmow, whilst Stansted Mountfitchet lies about 3.5kms (2 miles) to the northwest. Bishop’s Stortford, within the administrative district of East Hertfordshire within the county of Hertfordshire, is located 3.5kms (2 miles) to the west.

Figure 1.1 Stansted Airport within the surrounding context

1.11 The London to Cambridge railway line runs north/south some 3kms (1.8 miles) to the west of the Airport boundary. The Airport is served by its own railway station via a spur that leaves the main line 5.5kms (about 3.5 miles) north of Bishop’s Stortford.

1.12 The M11 London to Cambridge motorway runs north/south immediately to the west of the Airport boundary and the A120 trunk road lies inside the southern boundary. These main highways meet at Junction 8, which is less than 0.5kms to the south west of the airport boundary. Road access

N


into the Airport is provided from the M11 by the A120 and also by two minor roads: Bury Lodge Lane and Coopers End Road.

Airport Infrastructure

1.13 The Airport extends over an approximate area of 957 ha, and the area required for the new infrastructure (in four separate locations, as shown in Figure 2.1) will be 7 ha.

1.14 Stansted Airport has a single main runway, 3,048 m long and 46 m wide, on a south-west/north-east alignment. A twin parallel taxiway system to the south of the runway provides access to the passenger terminal, cargo area and principal aircraft maintenance area. A further parallel taxiway to the north of the runway provides access to the Business Aviation terminal, further aircraft maintenance facilities and remote aircraft parking.

1.15 The existing passenger terminal located to the south of the runway contains passenger processing facilities for both inbound and outbound international and domestic passengers. The adjoining Advanced Passenger Vehicle (APV) building was brought back into use in 2016 for flights departing during the busy 06:00 to 08:00 period. In addition, three airside satellites provide access to aircraft stands located to the north and west of the terminal.

1.16 On 7 April 2017 planning permission was granted for the erection of a separate arrivals building adjoining the existing passenger terminal. The new arrivals building will enable all current arrivals facilities to be transferred from the existing terminal building, which as a result can then be entirely dedicated to handling increased departures activity. This development also has the potential for much simpler internal reconfiguration to re-use the existing arrivals area to provide additional check-in and bag drop facilities, a second security search area, improved and more efficient international departure lounge capacity, and the ability to develop more customised and different facilities for particular airlines or groups of passengers.

1.17 There are several cargo buildings and hangars around the airfield, with the main cargo centre handling most cargo operations located south-east of the airfield by the air traffic control tower, which lies to the south of the terminal building. The cargo area has an independent junction from the landside road system with associated staff and lorry parking. The Airport fire station is located immediately to the north of the cargo transit sheds.

1.18 Within the Airport grounds, the Public Transport Interchange (PTI) comprises an interlinked rail terminal and bus and coach station, providing direct access to the terminal building. The bus and coach station is located immediately to the south-east of the forecourt in front of the terminal. The rail station is located directly beneath the passenger terminal and is accessed by internal escalators, ramps, walkways and lifts.

1.19 There are currently over 26,000 dedicated passenger car parking spaces on site, all at surface level, comprising:

x short stay – over 2,000 spaces, in a surface car park adjacent to the terminal;

x mid stay – over 5,000 spaces at South Gate, adjacent to the A120; and

x long stay – just under 19,000 ‘self-park’ and storage spaces, mainly in the north western sector off Bury Lodge Lane.


The Need for an Environmental Impact Assessment

1.20 Planning applications for development that are subject to the Town and Country Planning (Environmental Impact Assessment) Regulations 2017 are termed ‘EIA development’. The requirement for an EIA is either mandatory or conditional, depending on the classification of the development project. This is based, in turn, on the likelihood of significant environmental effects arising, together with the nature, scale and complexity of the proposed development.

1.21 The proposed development at Stansted is classified under ‘changes and extensions’ in accordance with Schedule 2 (13) of the EIA Regulations, namely:

(a) “Any change to or extension of development of a description listed in Schedule 1 (other than a change or extension falling within paragraph 24 of that Schedule) where that development is already authorised, executed or in the process of being executed”.

1.22 The existing airport falls under Schedule 1 (7): “construction of […] airports with a basic runway length of 2,100 m or more”, and therefore the proposed development constitutes a change to an already executed Schedule 1 project, making it Schedule 2 development.

1.23 As the project has the potential to give rise to significant environmental effects, STAL has decided to undertake an EIA voluntarily, without recourse to requesting a Screening Opinion from UDC. Accordingly, an Environmental Statement (ES) will be prepared to report the findings of the EIA and this will be submitted in conjunction with the forthcoming planning application.

1.24 RPS Planning and Development Ltd. (RPS) and a team of topic specialists (including Arup, Cole Jarman, SDG and Optimal Economics) has been commissioned by the Applicant to prepare the ES in accordance with the EIA Regulations and other relevant guidance and standards.

Purpose and Structure of the Scoping Report

1.25 Scoping constitutes an important stage of the EIA process, and allows for the identification of likely significant environmental effects arising from a development, both adverse and beneficial, to be agreed with the Local Planning Authority and other stakeholders.

1.26 In accordance with Regulation 15 of the EIA Regulations, this EIA Scoping Report is issued with a request for a Scoping Opinion from UDC.

1.27 This Scoping Report describes the scope and methodology of the technical studies being undertaken in order to provide a comprehensive assessment of any likely significant effects and, where necessary, to determine suitable mitigation measures for the construction and operational phases of the proposed development. It should be noted that not all of the topics proposed to be assessed through the EIA process necessarily have the potential to give rise to significant effects at a project level (e.g. carbon and climate change) but they will be considered in the ES because of their ubiquitous importance to the environment.

1.28 This Scoping Report is structured as follows:

� Section 2 outlines the growth forecasts, which underpin the need for the proposed development, and sets out the proposed assessment years and scenarios for the EIA;

� Section 3 identifies the key legislative and planning policy background;

� Section 4 explains the general approach to the EIA, including the structure of the technical ES chapters;


� Section 5 describes the consultation undertaken and proposed, including for the EIA;

� Sections 6-15 describe the environmental topics proposed to be addressed by the EIA, and explain the scope and methodology of these assessments;

� Section 16 summarises the topics that are not considered to have the potential to result in significant effects and are therefore proposed to be scoped out of the EIA, with the agreement of UDC; and

� Section 17 sets out the proposed structure of the ES.


2 FORECASTS AND EIA ASSESSMENT YEARS

The Proposed Development

2.1 Manchester Airports Group (MAG) acquired Stansted Airport in February 2013 with a clear vision for the future. Stansted is London’s third largest airport, primarily serving Greater London, the East of England and the South East, and passenger numbers are predicted to grow rapidly over coming years. In 2016 it catered for 24.3 million passengers, making it already the busiest single terminal airport in the UK and one of the busiest in Europe. Stansted also has the highest volume of dedicated freighter traffic of the London airports and it handled 223,200 tonnes of cargo in 2016.

2.2 STAL is now seeking planning permission for an increase in the annual number of passengers that it is allowed to cater for - from the previously consented 35mppa (as outlined in Section 3) to 44.5mppa. Permission is also sought for a corresponding increase of 11,000 annual aircraft movements, from the currently permitted total of 274,000 ATMs to 285,000 ATMs. This new single movement limit will combine passenger ATMs (PATMs), Cargo ATMs (CATMs) and General Aviation (GA) aircraft movements.

2.3 The changes to the existing passenger and ATM caps will enable the airport to make the ‘best and most efficient use’ of the existing single runway capacity in the period up to 2030 and beyond, in accordance with the stated vision of the Stansted Sustainable Development Plan (SDP) which was published and widely consulted upon in 2015.

2.4 Furthermore, so as to ensure a flexible and resilient airfield, which will in turn facilitate the ‘best and most efficient use’ of the single runway capacity, permission is sought for the construction of a number of physical structures within the airport boundary. These comprise two new links to the runway – a Rapid Exit Taxiway (RET) to the south west (known as Mike Romeo RET) and a Rapid Access Taxiway (RAT) at the north eastern end of the runway (known as Runway Tango 22/04 RAT), together with six additional aircraft stands located in the mid airfield (known as the Yankee Remote Stands) and three additional stands located to the north of the existing Echo Stands. The location of this proposed airfield infrastructure is shown in blue in Figure 2.1 below.

Figure 2.1 Proposed New Airfield Infrastructure

01

02 04

03

Airfield Infrastructure 01 – RET (Mike Romeo) 02 – Yankee Remote 03 – RAT (Tango) 04 – Echo


ATM and Passenger Forecasts

2.5 Tables 2.1 and 2.2 below summarise passenger and ATM forecasting data provided by the airport’s forecasting team (advised by ICF and ACL), which illustrates how growth would be constrained under the ‘Do Minimum’ (capped) scenario. Recorded data from 2016 is provided within the table for comparison.

2.6 Passenger numbers under the ‘Do Minimum’ scenario are expected to continue to increase until the 35mppa cap is reached in 2024. Passenger ATMs are anticipated to increase in parallel until the passenger cap is reached and then stabilise thereafter.

Table 2.1 Annual passenger forecasts under the ‘Do Minimum’ Scenario (constrained by the existing 35mppa cap1)

Annual Passengers 2016 2023 2024 2028 2029

Total [000s] 24,300 34,700 35,000 35,000 35,000

Table 2.2 Annual ATM forecasts under the ‘Do Minimum’ Scenario (constrained by the existing 274,000 aircraft movement cap)

Annual Aircraft Movements

2016 2023 2024 2028 2029 Passenger ATMs [000s] 152 211 212 212 212 Cargo ATMs [000s] 14 15 15 16 17 GA [000s]2 15 18 18 18 18 Total [000s] 181 243 246 247 247

2.7 STAL has also provided passenger and ATM forecasting data under the ‘Do Something’ scenario whereby the current passenger and aircraft movement caps are removed, as envisaged under the proposed development.

2.8 As illustrated in Tables 2.3 and 2.4 below, releasing the current passenger and ATM caps will allow the airport to make best use of its runway capacity of 285,000 total flights per annum (combining PATMs, CATMs and GA) and 44.5mppa, which is projected to occur at 2029, were planning permission for the proposed development to be granted.

2.9 Under this scenario, the 35mppa current cap will be reached and exceeded slightly earlier than the ‘Do Minimum’ case, occurring in 2023. Thereafter, PATMs are expected to increase progressively until they reach 261,000 in 2029, after which they would remain largely consistent each year. CATMs and GA will fluctuate somewhat over time, due to the assumption that slot allocations for PATMs will take precedence. However, at no point would the new upper limit of 285,000 total aircraft movements be exceeded.

1 Figures rounded to the nearest 100s. 2 Condition ATM2 of the 2008 Permission contains a number of sub categories which define what comprises the imposed 10,000 limit. Once of these categories excludes aircraft with less than 10 seats. The total GA component therefore can exceed a 10,000 limit without breaching planning controls.


Table 2.3 Annual passenger forecasts under the ‘Do Something’ Scenario3

Annual Passengers 2016 2023 2024 2028 2029

Total [000s] 24,300 35,200 37,000 43,000 44,500

Table 2.4 Annual ATM forecasts under the ‘Do Something’ Scenario

Annual Aircraft Movements

2016 2023 2024 2028 2029 Passenger ATMs [000s] 152 213 222 253 261 Cargo ATMs [000s] 14 15 15 16 16 GA [000s] 15 18 19 15 7 Total [000s] 181 246 255 284 285

EIA Assessment Years and Scenarios

2.10 As illustrated by the summary forecast tables above, the existing 35mppa cap will have effectively been reached by 2023 under both the ‘Do Minimum’ and ‘Do Something’ scenarios. For the purpose of the EIA, 2023 will therefore be adopted as the ‘Design Year’ of the proposed development. The forecasts show very little divergence between the two forecast scenarios in terms of passenger numbers and aircraft movements until after this date. As such, the environmental effects during this Design Year do not warrant detailed assessment, but will nonetheless be described in the ES where relevant (e.g. air noise).

2.11 Between the 2023 Design Year and the 2029 Principal Assessment Year the forecasts show a marked and progressive divergence between the ‘Do Minimum’ (capped) and ‘Do Something’ (new cap) scenarios. However, having examined these forecasts, it is the professional opinion of STAL’s consultant team for noise, air quality, traffic and other EIA topics, that there is no obvious intervening year before 2029, or after, which would derive more pronounced (i.e. ‘worst case’) environmental effects than those which would occur in 2029. As such, there is no evident need to assess the operational environmental effects of the proposed development during these intervening years.

2.12 Moreover, STALs forecasting team (advised by ICF and ACL) has not identified any realistic alternative lower or higher growth forecasts, up to 2029, to those presented above. London’s airports have seen particularly strong growth in the last five years, outstripping the Airport Commission’s forecasts. Economic forecasts of expected market demand in London and the South East, prior to the proposed third runway at Heathrow opening, demonstrate all available runway capacity at major airports will be needed to meet that demand for air travel. As such, there is a no more likely scenario to these core forecasts. Notwithstanding, even if the growth in passenger numbers and aircraft movements were slower to materialise than currently assumed (e.g. due to unforeseen effects on the economy after Brexit) then the consequence of reaching the upper projections for passenger and movements at a later year would not derive any materially different environmental effects (e.g. air noise) than those which would be expected to occur in 2029. Equally, more ambitious growth projections for Stansted, such that the respective

3 Figures rounded to the nearest 100s.


35mppa and 44.5mppa thresholds would be achieved before 2023/4 and 2028/9 respectively, are also considered unlikely based on current knowledge of market demand and future investment planning by the major home based airlines at Stansted.

2.13 Accounting for the above, it is not considered necessary for the EIA to apply any particular sensitivity tests for alternative forecasts or assessment years outside of the 2023 Design Year and 2029 Principal Assessment Year.

2.14 Where appropriate, reference will be made in the ES to the findings of the previous EIA process that informed the Generation 1 (G1) 2006 planning application, which was granted permission in 2008. This will serve the purpose of identifying whether or not the environmental effects of the proposed development are likely to be different (better or worse than) those assessed previously, including for the central ’35mppa case’ and a ‘40mppa Sensitivity Test’ case, undertaken at that time.


3 PLANNING CONTEXT TO THE PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT

Existing Stansted Planning Permissions

3.1 In May 2003 outline planning permission (UDC ref: UTT/1000/01/OP) was granted for the extension to the passenger terminal as well as provision of additional aircraft stands, taxiways and other associated facilities and infrastructure. The permission imposed a passenger limit of up to 25mppa and up to 241,000 ATMs.

3.2 A Section 73 application (UDC ref: UTT/0717/06/FUL) was subsequently submitted in April 2006 to amend the 2003 permission as follows:

“Extension to the passenger terminal, provision of additional aircraft stands and taxiways, aircraft maintenance facilities, offices, cargo handling facilities, aviation fuel storage, passenger and staff car parking and other operational and industrial support accommodation; alterations to airport roads, terminal forecourt and the Stansted rail, coach and bus station; together with associated landscaping and infrastructure as permitted under application UTT/1000/01/OP but without complying with Condition MPPA1 and varying Condition ATM1 to 264,000 ATMs.”

3.3 This planning application, known as Generation One (G1), was accompanied by an Environmental Statement (UDC ref: UTT/0717/06/FUL). Whilst the application was initially refused by UDC in November 2006, it was allowed following public inquiry and granted planning permission on 8 October 2008. This allowed for up to 35mppa and up to 264,000 ATMs, with an additional 10,000 General Aviation (GA) aircraft movements. Since then the permission has been implemented and a number of conditions have been discharged.

National Planning Policy and Guidance

NPPF

3.4 The proposed development has regard to the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) (March 2012), which replaced the previous suite of national Planning Policy Statements and Planning Policy Guidance documents and should be read alongside the National Planning Practice Guidance (NPPG) online resource.

3.5 The policies contained within the NPPF articulate the Government’s vision of sustainable development, which should be interpreted and applied locally to meet local aspirations.

3.6 With reference to airports, paragraph 31 of the NPPF states that local authorities should work with neighbouring authorities and transport providers to develop strategies for the provision of viable infrastructure necessary to support sustainable development, including large scale facilities or transport investment which support the growth of airports.

3.7 Paragraph 33 adds that when planning for airports and airfields that are not subject to a separate national policy statement, plans should take account of their growth and role in serving business, leisure, training and emergency service needs. The NPPF specifies that such plans should take account of the principles set out in the relevant National Policy Statements and the Government’s Aviation Policy Framework (APF).


Aviation Policy Framework (APF)

3.8 The Aviation Policy Framework (APF) was published in March 2013 and set out principles for the independent Airports Commission to take into account in their recommendations and reports. The Airports Commission was established in 2012 with the aim to provide advice on maintaining the UK’s airport hub capability, but has subsequently been disbanded following its final recommendations and report to the Government.

3.9 The APF supersedes The Future of Air Transport White Paper (December 2003) as Government policy, and seeks to address all the changes which have occurred in terms of aviation policy, the economy, the market and the needs of passengers and airlines since the publication of the White Paper.

3.10 Whilst the 2003 White Paper set out in detail which specific developments would be supported at particular airports across the UK, the APF outlines the Government’s wider objectives and principles to guide plans and decisions at the local and regional level, to the extent that it is relevant to that area. The document seeks to strike the right balance between aviation growth, economic wellbeing, respecting the environment and protecting quality of life.

3.11 The APF identified the medium to long term capacity and connectivity challenge of the UK’s main airports. With specific reference to Stansted, at the time of publication of the APF in 2013 (i.e. in the aftermath of the Global economic downturn) the airport was forecast to reach capacity by the early 2030s. However, since that time, Stansted has expanded far more rapidly than forecast, especially on account of the significantly improved economic environment and strong market demand for air travel in London and South East. This was recognised by the Airports Commission (AC) in its Final Report of July 2015. The report also noted that the airport’s acquisition by MAG has provided opportunities for a significant increase in passenger numbers, new routes to be introduced and new investment in the airport’s terminal facilities.

3.12 With regard to expansion capacity at Stansted Airport, the AC recognised the strategic importance of Stansted to the wider London airport system and considered that there is a case for reviewing the Stansted planning cap if and when the airport moves closer to full capacity. The report notes that the airport has seen rapid growth since its purchase by MAG, which if sustained over a longer period, would bring the airport to full capacity in the 2020s.

Future Aviation Policy

3.13 The Government is currently reviewing a number of aviation policies and is looking to update the overarching strategy for the sector, in order to better respond to future challenges and opportunities.

3.14 In this respect, a consultation on UK Airspace Policy is currently underway in support of airspace modernisation to deliver benefits for the UK economy, passengers and communities. The aim of the consultation is to outline the policy principles that will guide such decisions and offering greater flexibility to three of London’s major airports, including Stansted, to adapt their noise management to the needs of local communities. A range of supporting documents have been published in support of this consultation, including the following:

� Draft Air Navigation Guidance: Guidance on Airspace & Noise Management and Environmental Objectives;

� Survey of Noise Attitudes; and

� Upgrading UK Airspace: Strategic Rationale.


3.15 The result of the above studies and reports will inform the development of a new Aviation Strategy that the Government was working on, prior to the announcement of the General Election for June 2017. Subject to that election, it is anticipated that this new strategy will set out the Government’s vision for the wider aviation sector and will eventually replace the 2013 APF. Over the course of the latter part of 2017, the Government is expected to publish a series of Green Papers focused on specific topics, including airport safety, security, competitiveness, consumers, regulation and capacity. Subsequently, it is anticipated that a final White Paper setting out the Government’s new Aviation Strategy will be published in 2018.

3.16 In parallel with the consultation on UK Airspace Policy, a consultation on a draft Airports National Policy Statement (NPS)4 began in February 2017. Whilst the focus of this document is the proposed Northwest runway at Heathrow Airport, the draft NPS also acknowledges the overarching need for additional airport capacity in the South East of England.

3.17 Consultation on the draft NPS and UK Airspace Policy is being run in parallel due to the interrelationship of the issues they address (especially air noise). Both consultations ended on 25 May 2017.

3.18 In addition to the above, a separate consultation on the next night flights regime at the designated airports (Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted) ended on 28 February 2017. The proposed new restrictions would come into effect in October 2017 and the Government is proposing that they last for a period of five years.

3.19 The implications of these future policy changes to Stansted Airport will be addressed in the ES, where these are relevant to the proposed development and their effects (e.g. on air noise) are reasonably foreseeable.

Local Planning Policy and Guidance

3.20 The development plan for Stansted Airport is made up of the Adopted Uttlesford Local Plan, the Essex Minerals Local Plan and the Essex County Council and Southend-on-Sea Borough Council Waste Local Plan.

3.21 Figure 3.1 provides an extract of the UDC Proposals Maps which identifies the site’s policy designations.

4 Department for Transport (2017) Draft Airports National Policy Statement: new runway capacity and infrastructure at airports in the South East of England.


Figure 3.1 UDC Proposals Map (extract)

3.22 Stansted Airport comprises the following designations:

Table 3.1 Key to Figure 3.1

Site Designations Important Woodland Southern Ancillary Area

County Wildlife Site Northern Ancillary Area Route of New Road to be

Safeguarded Long Term Car Park

Ancient Woodland Landscaped Areas Terminal Support Area Public Safety Zone 1:100,000 risk Cargo Handling / Aircraft

Maintenance Area Public Safety Zone 1:10,000 risk

3.23 The airport is bounded by land designated as Countryside Protection Zone.

Uttlesford Adopted Local Plan (January 2005)

3.24 Uttlesford Local Plan was adopted in 2005, with the majority of policies being saved by the Secretary of State in 2007.

3.25 Within the Local Plan, the following policies are specific to Stansted Airport:

� Policy S4 (Stansted Airport Boundary);

� Policy S8 (The Countryside Protection Zone);

� Policy AIR1 (Development in the Terminal Support Area);

� Policy AIR2 (Cargo Handling/Aircraft Maintenance Area);

� Policy AIR3 (Development in the Southern Ancillary Area);


� Policy AIR4 (Development in the Northern Ancillary Area);

� Policy AIR5 (The Long Term Car Park);

� Policy AIR6 (Strategic Landscape Areas); and

� Policy AIR7 (Public Safety Zones).

Uttlesford Emerging Local Plan

3.26 UDC has recently paused the formal implementation process for its emerging draft Local Plan, which included the allocation of sites and supporting policies, and is working on drafting a new version of the Local Plan.

3.27 The Council is currently gathering evidence in support of a new draft Plan which is expected to be published in the summer of 2017. The new Plan will seek to protect the essential qualities of the district whilst at the same time delivering the housing, jobs, open space and other infrastructure which people need.

Other Planning Policy and Guidance

London Stansted Cambridge Corridor (LSCC) Growth Commission

3.28 The London Stansted Cambridge Consortium (LSCC) was launched in June 2013 as a strategic partnership of public and private organisations covering the London-Stansted-Cambridge-Peterborough Corridor. The Consortium subsequently set up the LSCC Growth Commission.

3.29 The London Plan (March 2016) defines the London Stansted Cambridge Corridor regional growth area as a “development corridor to the east and west of the Lee Valley through north London and Harlow and north to Stansted, Cambridge and Peterborough”. London Plan Policy 2.3 (Growth Areas and Co-ordination Corridors) states that the Mayor of London will engage with relevant agencies beyond London to identify and develop capacity and linkages across nationally recognised growth areas which include parts of London, such as the London Stansted Cambridge Corridor.

3.30 In July 2016 the LSCC Growth Commission published a report titled ‘Findings and Recommendations of the London Stansted Cambridge Corridor Growth Commission’, which outlines a 20-year vision for the Corridor to become one of the top ‘knowledge regions’ in the world and identified the growth of Stansted Airport as being crucial to the economic development of the Corridor.

Stansted Sustainable Development Plan (SDP) 2015

3.31 In the APF, the Government recommends that airports produce master plans to enable future development of the airport to be given due consideration in local planning processes. The APF considers that informed master plans which have undergone extensive consultation are of great value for the planning system in terms of informing future land use, transport and economic planning processes, as well as supporting forthcoming planning applications.

3.32 Accordingly, in line with Government’s advice, Stansted Airport consulted publically on a draft Sustainable Development Plan (SDP) in 2014 and produced its final version on 4 March 2015.

3.33 The SDP provides a framework for sustainable growth of Stansted Airport with its existing single runway, and is introduced as follows:


“M.A.G’s vision is to grow Stansted to better serve the region, including attracting a wider range of airlines and new routes...this is vital to sustain prosperity and create jobs and investment in our region. The plan looks at ways to make efficient use of our current single runway, develop and improve surface access links and strengthen our community engagement programme while at the same time being mindful of the environmental impacts, ensuring we strike the right balance between growth and sustainability”.

3.34 This vision is underpinned by the following guiding principles:

� “ support Stansted in becoming the best London airport;

� proactively plan for growth to make best use of existing capacity;

� support prosperity and economic growth in the region;

� actively manage and contain environmental impacts;

� be active and supportive partners in the local community; and

� maintain Stansted’s position as the best airport in the UK for public transport”.

3.35 The SDP is composed of an introductory summary plus four detailed plans, which set out in greater detail the Airport’s approach to future opportunities as well as dealing with the principal issues that would arise from making full use of the existing capacity. See Figure 3.2.

Figure 3.2 Stansted SDP detailed plans


4 GENERAL APPROACH TO THE EIA

4.1 The EIA will consider the likely significant environmental effects of the proposed development, utilising current knowledge of the airport site and the surrounding environment. Based on the findings of the studies undertaken as part of the EIA, methods of preventing, reducing, or offsetting significant adverse effects (collectively known as ‘mitigation measures’), and methods to enhance any beneficial effects of the proposed development, will be set out in each relevant technical chapter of the ES (where relevant).

EIA Statutory Requirements and Guidance

4.2 The ES will be prepared in accordance with legislative requirements and current guidance for EIA. In particular, the ES will be prepared with due consideration to:

� the Town and Country Planning (Environmental Impact Assessment) Regulations 2017 which have been prepared to meet the requirements of European Union (EU) 2014/52/EC;

� the Department for Communities and Local Government Planning Practice Guidance (PPG) on EIA; and

� the Institute of Environmental Management and Assessment (IEMA) Guidelines for Environmental Impact Assessment 2004 (amended 2006).

Structure of the Technical Chapters

4.3 Each environmental topic scoped into the EIA (identified at Sections 7-15 of this Scoping Report) will be addressed in a separate technical chapter of the ES. Within each of these technical chapters, the assessment will generally be structured in the following way:

Introduction

4.4 This will provide a summary of what matters are considered in the chapter and will state the author and/or relevant technical contributor.

Legislation, Guidance and Planning Policy Context

4.5 This section will summarise the key legislation and national, regional and local policies and standards that are relevant to the particular environmental topic being considered and the assessment being undertaken. It will provide a topic-specific overview of any relevant existing planning conditions and legal obligations attached to the grant of the G1 35mppa permission.

Assessment Methodology and Significance Criteria

4.6 This section will describe any assumptions made or assessment limitations, as well as the methods used to carry out the technical assessment. It will also include an outline of the approach used to define the significance of environmental effects for the subject topic with reference to published standards, guidelines, best practice and relevant significance criteria.

4.7 Where a detailed methodological description is required, this will be provided in the appropriate technical appendix.


Baseline Conditions

4.8 The existing baseline conditions at the airport and surrounding area will be described for the environmental topic being considered. This will be based on either a 2015 or 2016 dataset, depending on availability.

4.9 The projected baseline or ‘Do Minimum scenario’ will also be described to identify the conditions that are reasonably foreseeable in the future assessment year scenarios – 2023 and 2029 (see below). This assumes that the separate developments at the airport brought forward under the previous 2003 and 2008 planning permissions, the arrivals terminal (recently granted planning permission) and any other permitted developments forming part of the wider Stansted Transformation Project (STP), will be in place before 2023.

4.10 The baseline conditions will describe the receptors or resources that could be impacted by the construction or operation of the proposed development, and will state the relative sensitivity or importance of these. Together, this will provide the context against which the environmental effects of the development will be assessed.

Incorporated Mitigation

4.11 This section will be provided before the impact assessment section to account for any ‘designed in’ mitigation including those required under extant planning conditions, S106 obligations (where these remain relevant) and commitments made by the airport in the 2015 Sustainable Development Plan. As such, the assessment of effects will be undertaken on the basis that many such measures are already assumed as part of both the ‘Do Minimum’ 35mppa capped case and the ‘Do Something’ 44.5mppa case.

Impact Assessment

4.12 The potential for temporary environmental effects (e.g. noise, dust, HGV traffic etc.) from the construction of the new RAT, RET and aircraft stands (as described in Sections 1 and 2 of this Scoping Report) will be considered within each ES chapter, where applicable. The construction phase is anticipated to take place between 2021 and 2022. An illustrative programme and description of the main construction activities, plant and materials will be provided in a dedicated chapter of the ES, as described in Section 6 of this Scoping Report. These details will be used to inform the assessment of related environmental effects. However, due to the limited extent, location and nature of these construction works, significant environmental effects are not anticipated with appropriate environmental controls in place.

4.13 For each topic, the likely operational effects arising from the proposed raising of the passenger and ATM caps will be undertaken by comparing the difference in environmental effects between the ‘Do Minimum’ (capped) and ‘Do Something’ (new cap) case from the point at which the existing 35mppa cap will be reached, which is projected to occur in 2023. However, for most EIA topics, the impact assessments will be founded on a Principal Assessment Year of 2029 – representing the point at which the passenger throughput of 44.5mppa as well as maximum 285,000 ATMs will be reached.

4.14 The rationale for the assessment years/ scenarios that are applied will be described in the EIA methodology chapter of the ES and in the corresponding technical chapters of the ES.


Additional Mitigation Measures and Residual Effects

4.15 Should adverse effects be identified as a consequence of the proposed increase in passengers and ATMs (particularly ‘significant’ effects), this section will describe any further mitigation measures and scheme enhancements that will be committed to by STAL in order to avoid, reduce or offset these effects. Such measures may relate to design, construction or operational controls in place at the airport.

Cumulative Schemes

4.16 With regard to the cumulative effects of the proposed development, a number of committed schemes have been identified as relevant and are proposed for inclusion within the ES. However, many of these developments are likely to be built out and fully operational before 2029, and will therefore form part of the projected baseline for the EIA, against which the environmental effects of the proposed development scheme will assessed (e.g. new residential receptors coming within the air noise contours). This distinction between ‘cumulative schemes’ and ‘baseline schemes’ will be further described in the ES, once the timeline for each development has been established.

4.17 The schemes, listed in Table 4.1 below and illustrated in Figure 4.1, have been selected according to the following criteria:

� Residential developments over 30 units that are within 2 km of the airport boundary or else within the defined Study Area for each respective environmental discipline (as described in Sections 7-15);

� Developments which could be ‘EIA development’ in their own right and which meet or exceed the relevant screening thresholds contained in the EIA Regulations; and

� Developments which have been granted planning permission, have received resolution to grant, or, are likely to be determined before Q3 2017.

4.18 Further developments in the wider area of influence around the airport are also already factored into the approved transport model (Tempro), so the associated effects of traffic noise and exhaust emissions are already factored into these assessments.

Table 4.1 List of Proposed Cumulative Developments

No. UDC reference no. Address Description Status 1 UTT/16/3601/SO Stansted

Airport Northside

55ha site comprising storage and distribution (B8), logistics and commercial space (B1/B2), revised site access and internal road layout, north of Stansted Airport.

EIA Scoping/ Application not submitted

2 UTT/13/0177/OP Land west of Hall Road, Elsenham

Erection of up to 130 dwellings with associated open space, play areas, land for educational use and other ancillary works.

Approved


No. UDC reference no. Address Description Status 3 UTT/0142/12/OP Land north of

Stansted Road, Elsenham

Residential development comprising of 155 dwellings, 55 extra care units, land for the provision of a multi-use community building, and associated on and off site infrastructure provision, following demolition and clearance of Essex Auto spray and associated residential property.

Approved

4 UTT/13/1393/OP Land South of Dunmow Road, Brewers End, Takeley, Bishops Stortford

Proposed residential planning application for erection of up to 100 dwellings, to include provision of 6.3ha of public open space.

Approved

5 UTT/15/1036/FUL Land adjacent to Enterprise House, Stansted Airport

Eight storey, 12,842sqm (GEA) quality hotel consisting of a net accommodation area of 8,159sqm, with ancillary restaurant and gym, vehicle parking and access.

Under Construction/ Opening Soon

6 UTT/16/3566/FUL Gorefield Road, Stansted

A dedicated terminal facility for arriving passengers (34,384sqm); an associated forecourt; and altered access and service roads.

Approved

7 UTT/16/3669/OP Land South east of Great Hallingbury

Outline application with all matters reserved for 35 dwellings.

Awaiting decision

8 UTT/17/1080/SCO Land west of Canfield Road, Great Canfield

Proposed development of 210 dwellings, public open space, landscaping, sustainable drainage systems and access point from Green Lane.

EIA Scoping/ Application not submitted


No. UDC reference no. Address Description Status 9 UTT/13/1618/OP Land at

Walpole Farm, Cambridge Road, Stansted

Redevelopment of land to provide approximately 160 dwelling houses, up to 600sqm of commercial (B1) floorspace, approximately 0.45ha reserved for educational uses, seven full size allotments, paddock and community woodland area with associated open space, landscaping, access, parking and drainage.

Approved

10 UTT/1335/12/FUL Land at Brewers End, Dunmow Road, Takeley

Erection of 41 dwellings (including affordable housing) with new vehicular and pedestrian access, associated infrastructure and landscaping.

Conditions discharged

11 UTT/14/2991/OP Land at Elsenham Nurseries, Elsenham

Demolition of existing buildings and erection of 40 residential dwellings including open space and landscaping.

Discharging conditions

Figure 4.1 Stansted Cumulative Developments


4.19 Cumulative effects of these developments will be assessed for the majority of disciplines through desk based, qualitative means. The results of the cumulative effects assessment will then be reported in a dedicated chapter of the ES, which will also present a summary of impact interactions, drawing on the various technical assessments provided in the detailed ES chapters.

Consideration of Alternatives

4.20 In accordance with the EIA Regulations and statutory guidance, the ES will describe any alternatives to the proposed development that were considered by STAL, accounting for environmental effects.


5 CONSULTATION

5.1 The Good Practice Guide to Public Engagement in Development Schemes published in 2012 by the Royal Town Planning Institute (RTPI) recommends public consultation and engagement before any major planning application. Accordingly, public consultation events are scheduled to be held in July 2017, coupled with a survey of local community attitudes and issues relating to the airport. Details of the proposed development are to be circulated to residents/ interested parties in due course.

5.2 In the lead up to the planning application, a programme of specific consultation on the EIA and associated Health Impact Assessment (HIA) will also be held with statutory and non-statutory consultees. Each of the consultees in Table 5.1 will be given an opportunity (via UDC or in contact by STAL directly) to comment upon the scope of this EIA. Relevant bodies will also be contacted in order to obtain baseline and base data to be used in the EIA/ HIA.

Table 5.1 List of EIA Consultees

List of EIA Consultees Uttlesford District Council (UDC) Essex County Council (ECC) Hertfordshire County Council East Herts District Council Harlow Council Epping Forest District Council Braintree Borough Council Environment Agency (EA) National Trust Natural England (NE) Historic England (HE) Forestry Commission East of England Regional Assembly (EERA) Highways Agency (HA) Department for Transport (DfT) Department for Transport, Civil Aviation Division Network Rail Transport Operators Thames Water Utilities Ltd (TWUL) Three Valleys Water (TVW) EDF Energy National Grid (Transco) Relevant local community groups

5.3 A summary of relevant consultations will be presented in the introductory sections of the ES. This will provide details of any environmental issues raised and provide an audit trail of how the EIA process has responded to any pertinent matters raised through this consultation.


6 CONSTRUCTION PROGRAMME AND EFFECTS

6.1 This chapter will be completed by RPS with inputs from the wider consultant team.

Key Issues/ Overview

6.2 The potential effects of the activities involved in constructing the new RAT, RET, additional Echo stands and mid-field Yankee stands will be assessed within the ES. This construction work is expected to commence in 2021 and be completed by 2022, i.e. in advance of the existing 35mppa cap being reached.

6.3 The assessment will be informed by an Illustrative Construction Programme prepared by STAL.

6.4 In order to undertake such an assessment, STAL and RPS will identify and describe:

� the areas and location of land to be developed, including any onsite upgrades to utilities, water treatment facilities and drainage;

� the duration, nature and location of all key activities;

� arrangements for on- and off-site construction compounds, batching and fabrication facilities;

� the approximate volume of earth works required and the need for any exportation of spoil or importation of fill;

� the demand for construction materials and the extent to which reclaimed materials may be used;

� the public highway network to be used by construction related vehicles and points of access and egress to the working sites for construction related traffic;

� the likely maximum hourly flows by type (HGV, MDV) and any necessary controls over vehicular movements (e.g. out of hours deliveries);

� the sources and likely levels of emissions (including dust and noise) generated by construction activity;

� the effects of the proposed development during construction upon the ground water regime and the methods of disposal of surface water, including any necessary quality control; and

� the use of lighting during construction activity.

6.5 Statutory regulations applicable to construction (e.g. The Control of Pollution Act 1974) will be set out together with industry best practices for controlling such effects, including an Outline Construction Environmental Management Plan (CEMP).

6.6 STAL will also formulate a Code of Construction Practice, based on its extensive experience of managing construction projects at Stansted, and the wider MAG airports of Manchester, East Midlands and Bournemouth, which will set out the measures to ensure the effective controls of all environmental effects, including, where appropriate, using Best Practice Measures (BPM).


Potential Impacts

6.7 Related environmental effects on traffic, noise, air quality, carbon, construction employment and health will also be reported in the corresponding chapters of the ES.


7 SURFACE ACCESS & TRANSPORT

7.1 The Surface Access & Transport Chapter of the ES, prepared by Steer Davies Gleave (SDG), will provide predictions of multi modal trips and evaluate the impacts of vehicular traffic generated by the proposed development on existing traffic, pedestrian and cyclist movements, car parking, public transport and local amenity.

7.2 The ES chapter will rely on transport generation characteristics and highway capacity assessments, including trip generations/distributions, that will be set out in detail as part of the Transport Assessment (TA) to be submitted as a separate document in support of the planning application. The scope and methodology of the TA will be agreed with Essex County Council and Highways England as relevant Highway Authorities. Hertfordshire County Council will also be an important consultee given the immediate proximity of the County Boundary to the airport.

7.3 The Surface Access & Transport Chapter will also provide a summary of traffic data utilised for the transport, air quality and noise assessments within the EIA.

Key Issues/Baseline Overview

7.4 The proposed development will enable growth beyond 35mppa at the airport. This will in turn result in increased travel demand and associated highway traffic, continuing the growth trend for the airport that has been recorded since around 2012, up to around 2030. The application relates to the cap on annual passengers. Any on-site transport infrastructure required to support the additional travel demand will come forward over a number of years (as additional facilities will be required for growth from current passenger throughput up to 35mppa) and will likely be ‘permitted development’. The Surface Access Strategy currently adopted for the airport will be retained, including initiatives to minimise highway traffic.

7.5 The airport is well located adjacent to trunk roads with direct access available from the M11 and A120. However, there are also several local roads that are used for access to the airport for more local trips.

7.6 Stansted has the lowest car travel share of any major UK airport, helped by the proactive management and promotion of sustainable travel. The Stansted Airport Transport Forum oversees the delivery of STN’s targets for sustainable travel including minimising car use by employees on site. A further reduction in the ratio of car trips per passenger is being targeted through the reduction of kiss-and-fly and taxi usage.

7.7 Public transport services will inevitably increase as a result of additional demand, which will in turn support currently marginal or uneconomic services. Other services will be extended or enhanced and predicted future services will be outlined in the TA and ES. The future intensification of use of the airport site will provide even greater opportunities for effective travel planning.

Potential Impacts

7.8 The main issues and impacts predicted, and therefore to be addressed in the ES, include:

� considering how traffic may grow on more sensitive local roads;


� understanding air quality and noise issues associated with traffic growth; and

� considering total traffic movements on key junctions and highways links to ensure they remain suitable and safe.

Approach and Methodology

7.9 The highway impact elements of the assessment will be undertaken in accordance with guidance given by the Institute of Environmental Management and Assessment (IEMA) (formerly the Institute of Environmental Assessment – IEA) guidelines, ‘Environmental Assessment of Road Traffic’.

7.10 The Chapter will consider relevant transport policies at a national and local level and also consider any environmental issues associated with changes in patronage on public transport services.

7.11 In determining the extent of the assessment, cognisance will be given to the IEA guidelines which suggest that the relevant study area for transport assessments within an EIA should include highway links where traffic flows will increase by more than 30%, or in ‘sensitive areas’ local to the application site, where traffic flows are predicted to increase by 10%. However, to ensure a robust assessment, links considered not being in sensitive areas but with predicted increase below the 30% threshold may be included in the detailed assessment.

7.12 The IEA guidelines set out a range of environmental effects relating to road traffic that should be considered within an EIA. Of these impacts, road traffic noise and vibration and air quality effects will be addressed within separate respective technical chapters within the ES. The Surface Access & Transport Chapter will consider the following road traffic effects, as detailed in Table 7.1 below:

Table 7.1 Road Traffic Effects Assessed

Effect Description Changes in traffic flows Increase or decrease in road traffic flows resulting from the

development, compared to baseline conditions. Severance The perceived division that can occur within a community when it

becomes separated by a major traffic artery (e.g. road). Driver Delay Valuation of the delay (or benefit) to drivers resulting from a new

development. Pedestrian Delay The change in the ability of pedestrians to cross a given highway

link due to changes in traffic flow, speed, composition, highway design.

Pedestrian Amenity The relative pleasantness of a pedestrian’s journey, influenced by traffic flow but also including consideration of the overall relationship between pedestrian and traffic (e.g. air quality and noise).

Fear and Intimidation Linked to pedestrian amenity and influenced by factors including traffic flow, composition and pavement conditions.

Accidents and Safety Increase or decrease in risk of road traffic accidents resulting from changes in traffic flows and highway layout.


7.13 Baseline conditions on the selected highway links will be established using traffic counts undertaken during 2015. Future year assessments will be carried out considering predicted traffic conditions during the construction phase (2021 - 2022) and an operational phase (2029). Future year flows will be predicted by applying locally factored Tempro growth rates and consideration of any specific committed developments close to the airport predicted to significantly change traffic flows on the local network, subject to agreement with ECC/HE and UDC over a list of cumulative schemes.

7.14 With respect to the assessment of potential impacts, this will be undertaken through consideration of the potential effects associated with the proposed development (as known at the time of the assessment) in terms of a change when compared to the ‘Do Minimum’ conditions in 2029.

7.15 For each of the identified impacts, an assessment of the scale of the potential change will be made based on the proportional increase or decrease in the given factor compared to the ‘Do Minimum’ baseline. Determination of the scale of change has been based on the scale used in the IEA guidelines. This assumes that 30%, 60% and 90% changes in traffic levels should be considered as ‘slight’, ‘moderate’ and ‘substantial’ impacts, respectively.

Assessment Periods

7.16 The IEA Guidelines distinguish between the time of greatest environmental impact and the greatest highway impact. Greatest environmental impact occurs at the period of greatest change, i.e. the highest percentage increase.

7.17 From the 2015 traffic surveys, the major road network AM peak period (08.00–09.00) and the PM peak (17.00–18.00) have been identified as the times of maximum base traffic flow. The period of maximum traffic attraction to and from the airport is however significantly different.

7.18 As the airport grows there is anticipated to be some spreading of the peak period for arrivals and departures. The predicted future profile will hence be examined to identify those periods that can be anticipated to notice the greatest change. However, with the exception of considering network capacity, the seven environmental assessment criteria set out in Table 7.1 above will be examined in terms of predicted changes in daily total traffic flows.

Figure 7.1 Average passenger car movements to and from Airport (one way, no shift)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24Hour Commencing

2016 35mppa 44.5mppa


Construction Phase

7.19 An assessment will be made of the environmental impact of construction traffic based on assumed construction profile (as informed by the Illustrative Construction Programme prepared by STAL). The construction traffic will encompass both HGV and other construction related vehicle movements and traffic associated with construction employment. The assessment will take into account anticipated construction traffic routing that will reflect the proximity of the site to the strategic road network and a desire to avoid traffic using minor roads north and west of the site. Accordingly, all HGV construction traffic will be assumed to travel to and from the A120/M11 direction. It is predicted that construction impacts will be significantly less in volume than the ‘Do Something’ scenario (i.e. for passenger traffic) and hence detailed analysis of resultant impacts is not proposed.

Traffic Data for Air Quality and Noise Assessments

7.20 The Surface Access & Transport Chapter will also set out traffic data analysis and figures utilised elsewhere in the ES, in particular for Air Quality and Noise Assessments. This will be reported as predicted 16, 18 and 24-hour annual average daily totals with and without the development for the construction and operational phases, with details of predicted % of HGVs on highway links.


8 AIR NOISE

8.1 This assessment and ES Chapter will be completed by Cole Jarman.


8.2 It is recognised that noise from aircraft operations in flight is considered to be among the most, if not the single most, significant of the environmental effects associated with airports. For this reason, a detailed and robust assessment of any forecast changes in noise levels will be undertaken that reflects Government policy on aircraft noise and respects the sensitivities of the local community.

Assessment Framework

8.3 Best practice assessment of aircraft noise requires appropriate weight to be given to relevant guidance, British Standards, Government commissioned studies and precedent decisions by Inspectors or by the Secretary of State in relation to noise matters at recent airport inquiries. For this study, Cole Jarman would have regard to the following sources of information and whether/how they affect the structure of the assessment being carried out:

� World Health Organisation (WHO) – Guidelines for Community Noise, 1999

� World Health Organisation (WHO) – Night Noise Guidelines for Europe, 2009

� BS 8233: 2014 – Guidance on sound insulation and noise reduction for buildings

� BS 4142: 2014 Methods for rating and assessing industrial and commercial sound

� DORA 8402: UK Aircraft Noise Index Study, January 1985

� DORA 9023: The use of Leq and an Aircraft Noise Index, September 1990

� DoT Report of a Field Study of Aircraft Sleep Disturbance, December 1992

� Attitudes to Noise from Aviation Sources in England (ANASE), October 2007

� ERCD Report 1208: Aircraft Noise, Sleep Disturbance and Health Effects: A Review, January 2013

� National Noise Attitude Survey 2013: Defra, December 2014

� Airports Commission: Final Report, July 2015

� Heathrow Cranford Inquiry: June 2015

� London City Airport Inquiry: April 2016

� CAP 1506, Survey of noise attitudes 2014: aircraft

8.4 This list cannot be considered exhaustive, and reference will be made to other established authoritative documents where considered appropriate or helpful in assessing the various noise sources associated with the proposed development.


Current Controls

8.5 The means by which noise generated by airborne aircraft is currently managed at the airport will be described. Controls having the effect of limiting noise impacts include:

� Planning Condition: G1 consent (2008), condition H5 limits the extent of the 57 dB LAeq,16h contour to 33.9km2 (Ancon 2.3 or later) and limits annual ATMs to 264,000, made up of no more than 243,500 PATMs and 20,500 CATMs; an allowance of 10,000 movements is made for GA operations, giving up to 274,000 total movements annually;

� Night Noise Controls: movement and quota count limits are set for the night period between 23h30 and 06h00 for the summer and winter seasons. Current proposals are set out in the Government’s January 2017 Night flight restrictions at Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted: Consultation Document;

� Departure and Arrival Procedures: details of the Noise Preferential Routes will be set out;

� Noise Penalty Limits: the maximum noise levels permitted to be generated by departing aircraft, and the system used to monitor the process will be described;

� Noise Action Plan: reference will be made as required to the airport’s statutory Noise Action Plan under the EU Directive;

� Noise Monitoring: reference will be made to the extent and operation of the Noise Monitoring and Track Keeping System; and

� Sound Insulation Grant Scheme: the terms of the current scheme operated by the airport to offer assistance with relocation or sound insulation will be described.

Complaints Analysis

8.6 The ES chapter will tabulate the incidence of complaints over recent years, identifying key locations from which complaints have arisen and main reasons for complaints.

8.7 An analysis will be undertaken to determine any systematic issues arising and whether these are significant and need to be considered in formulating the application and the proposed noise control measures.

Baseline Noise Data

8.8 The noise levels at various locations around Stansted Airport are currently being monitored via a number of means:

� the airport’s fixed noise monitors which record noise levels on a permanent, ongoing basis for processing by the ANOMS system, which are reported in accordance with the provisions of the Noise Action Plan;

� the airport’s mobile noise monitors which are deployed for periods of time at selected locations in the community for processing by the ANOMS system and which are reported separately as required; and

� independent surveys of community noise levels undertaken at locations around the airport as part of studies not directly associated with the proposed development.


8.9 Noise data are available for the following locations:

Table 8.1 Schedule of locations for which baseline data are available

Location Dates Data Type Permanent Monitors Permanent 24 hour data aircraft and ambient Burton End: A Sept 2015 24 hour data all sources Burton End: B Sept 2015 24 hour data all sources Burton End: C Sept 2015 24 hour data all sources Gaunts End Dec 16 – Jan 17 24 hour data aircraft and ambient Northside Area Jan 17 24 hour data all sources

8.10 All available data will be collated and assessed and, where they are deemed appropriate and informative in the context of the current application, they will be processed for inclusion as part of the baseline noise record.

8.11 In addition, the airport has deployed mobile monitors to record noise levels over extended periods during summer operations at locations in the community. These locations tend to be in the vicinity of flight paths further away from the airport and the data are assessed independently and summary reports prepared. Reference will be made to the findings of these reports where it has a bearing on the impacts being assessed as part of the proposed development.

8.12 Cole Jarman will carry out additional noise monitoring over both medium term (≥ 24 hours) and short term (≤ 1 hour) periods at a number of locations in the community. This will comprise a combination of automatic monitoring of the prevailing noise levels over weekday and weekend periods at primary locations and attended short term measurements at secondary locations to ensure that the noise climate at all sensitive times is fully quantified.

8.13 Current proposals are to carry out additional noise monitoring in the local community as follows:

Table 8.2 Schedule of locations for which additional baseline data are to be obtained

Location Short term (daytime only)

Medium Term (including night time)

Bishops Stortford x Little Hallingbury X Great Hallingbury X Hatfield Forest x Takeley x Brick End x Plegdon Green x Broxted X Thaxted X Elsenham x Tye Green x Stansted Mountfitchet x

8.14 A baseline noise survey report will be prepared for inclusion as an Appendix to the Air Noise Chapter of the ES. The report will identify key observations and conclusions arising from the


baseline surveys that need to be taken into account in the assessment of noise impact. This may include reference to ambient or background noise levels not associated with aircraft operations which are considered to vary significantly at receptor locations around Stansted Airport.

Potential Impacts

8.15 Changes to the permitted number of movements at the airport may lead to changes in the expected noise levels in the local community. Any impact arising from those changes will depend on the scale of the increase, or decrease, in movements by the different types of aircraft carrying out the operations.

8.16 To properly quantify the expected noise changes and the level of impact arising as a result, the analysis will aim to quantify:

� average noise levels during both the daytime and night time periods;

� noise levels associated with individual aircraft flyovers during both the daytime and night time periods;

� the community noise levels predicted to arise if the development is permitted compared to the limits set out in G1 condition H5; and

� the incremental effect of operations with the development in place compared to the ‘Do Minimum’ scenario in 2029.

8.17 The following factors are initial indicators of the likely scale of the impacts:

� the change in total number of aircraft movements that forms the basis of the application is small: 274,000 to 285,000 represents only a 4% increase in total movements;

� the business model of the dominant operator at Stansted (Ryanair) is to gradually replace the current generation of narrow bodied medium haul aircraft (by far the most numerous being the Boeing 737-800) with a new generation, quieter version (the Boeing 737 MAX 200); and

� substantial numbers of these new aircraft are already on order and a reasonable expectation is that a substantial number of them will be in operation, replacing the older noisier model, by the time the passenger throughput reaches 44.5mppa in 2029.


Noise Indices

8.18 A comprehensive range of noise indices will be analysed, generally in conformance with CAP 725: 2016 considering both the mandatory and optional noise metrics, but also taking into account the content of the recent Airspace Policy Consultation Documents:

LAeq,16h: the 16-hour daytime LAeq value for the period 07h00 to 23h00 based on summer operations.

LAeq,8h: the 8-hour night time LAeq value for the period 23h00 to 07h00 based on summer operations.

Lnight: the 8-hour night time LAeq value for the period 23h00 to 07h00 based on annual operations.


Lden: the 24-hour LAeq value with 5dB penalty applied to evening operations (19h00 – 23h00) and 10dB penalty applied to night operations (23h00 – 07h00) based on annual operations.

N65: the number of aircraft noise events exceeding 65dB during the period 07h00 – 23h00 based on summer operations.

N60: the number of aircraft noise events exceeding 60dB during the period 23h00 – 07h00 based on summer operations.

Number of ‘Highly Annoyed’ People.

8.19 The analysis will apply conventional airport assessment methodology and consider the aggregate mode of operations at Stansted. Noise contours will be prepared for average summer’s day and average annual day movements, with the ‘standard’ runway modal split built in: 71% south westerly operations; 29% north easterly operations.

ANCON Noise Model

8.20 In order to maintain continuity with the methodology historically used for preparing noise contours at Stansted Airport, it is necessary for the community noise contours, noise footprints and schedules of community noise levels that are contained with the ES to be generated using the independent CAA ERCD ANCON noise model. This is the model that has historically been employed to define airborne noise at Stansted Airport, and all conditions and commitments involving noise metrics are informed by the results of this modelling. This approach is consistent with guidance in CAP 725: 2016.

8.21 ERCD will therefore be provided with a detailed briefing document, prepared by Cole Jarman, that sets out in precise terms the operating scenarios that need to be modelled and the output that is required for the Air Noise chapter of the ES. It is intended that these requirements will comprise the final, considered view of the desired operating conditions with the aircraft movement cap increased, and alternative operating options or ‘what-if’ scenarios will not have to be modelled by them.

8.22 Cole Jarman will liaise with ERCD as required during the course of generating the noise contours, noise footprints and noise schedules and, if appropriate, validate the final output and ensure it is incorporated into the relevant Technical Appendices and the ES Air Noise chapter.

Impact Analysis

8.23 The noise impact will be determined for each of the defined assessment years, with and without the proposed development taking place.

8.24 The noise impact will also be determined for these assessment years (2023 and 2029) by reference to the impact set out in the 2006 G1 application for 35mppa, which is consented and for which certain limits pertaining to noise were agreed and imposed as conditions. In defining this consented position, it will be necessary to restate the 2006 assessment results to incorporate additional noise metrics identified in the current Policy Consultation Documents (e.g. N65, N60, etc.).

Spatial Scope

8.25 The spatial scope of the air noise analysis will be informed by the extent of the noise contours which are yet to be produced. It is expected that an area of 25km x 25km centred on the midpoint of runway 04-22 will define the spatial scope of the study.


Air Noise Mitigation

8.26 As or where necessary, recommendations for the mitigation and control of airborne activity noise will be made. Consideration will be given to:

Sound Insulation Grant Scheme (SIGS)

8.27 Protecting affected people against daytime and night time air noise levels consistent with current UK best practice. Protection is currently afforded both in respect of average daytime and night time noise levels and individual flyover noise events likely to lead to a quantifiable risk of sleep disturbance. Whether it is appropriate to propose modified qualifying criteria will depend on the outcome of the noise modelling and the assessed impacts arising.

Noise Penalty Limits (NPLs)

8.28 Reviewing the existing daytime and night time NPLs and proposing, where possible and appropriate, revised limits that reflect more stringent controls.

Airport Charges

8.29 A review of landing charges will be carried out with a view to incentivising the use of quieter aircraft.

Night Noise Restrictions

8.30 A review of these restrictions will be undertaken. This review will take account of the emerging policy set out in the Government’s current consultation considering reforming policy on the design and use of UK airspace


9 GROUND NOISE

9.1 The assessment of ground noise and the associated chapter of the ES will be completed by Cole Jarman.


9.2 While not normally the primary focus for communities around airports, noise from aircraft operations on the ground can affect noise sensitive receptors closer to the airport boundary. For this reason, a detailed and robust assessment of any forecast changes in noise levels will be undertaken.

Assessment Framework

9.3 Some of the assessment framework documents referred to in 8.3 above, for air noise, will also apply to the assessment of ground noise.

Current Controls

9.4 Some of the controls identified in 8.4 above, for air noise, will also have the effect of managing or mitigating noise generated by aircraft on the ground. Additional measures employed will be described, including:

� Good Practice Management: notifications, including Director’s Notices, that describe procedures to be adopted by operators in order to control the noise impact; these include, for example, DN62/12 dealing the operation of Ground Power Units (GPUs ) and Auxiliary Power Units (APUs), and DN09/12 dealing with ground noise from rotary aircraft.

Complaints Analysis

9.5 Complaints specifically related to ground noise will be identified. An analysis will be undertaken to determine any systematic issues arising and whether these are significant and need to be considered in formulating the application and the proposed noise control measures.

Baseline Noise Data

9.6 The strategy for defining the baseline noise levels set out in Section 8, dealing with air noise, will deliver the necessary information to determine baseline noise levels that are relevant to the ground noise issue.

Potential Impacts

9.7 As for air noise, the changes to the permitted number of movements at the airport (as proposed) will lead to changes in the expected noise levels in the local community. Ground noise affects a much smaller geographic area and impacts arise at a smaller number of community receptors. Generally, those locations affected are relatively close to the boundary of the airport.

9.8 To properly quantify the expected noise changes and the level of impact arising as a result, the analysis will aim to quantify matters in the same manner as air noise. So far as the likely impacts are concerned, the same factors will have a bearing, namely the relatively small increase in operating numbers and the expected, incremental replacement of current generation aircraft with new generation, quieter models.



Noise Sources

9.9 The different activities that are undertaken by aircraft on the ground leading to noise being generated that requires assessment are:

� Taxiing: ground movement of aircraft under low power engine settings to and from the parking stands to the end of the runway prior to departure or after arrival. Designated taxi routes are used and the aircraft operate at relatively low speed during these procedures;

� Manoeuvring: requires the main engines to start up and run at low power while an aircraft moves onto or off stand and around the apron prior to commencing or following completion of its taxiing procedures;

� APUs: small turbine engines, normally exhausting at the base of the tail fin, which provide electrical and hydraulic power for various essential services when the aircraft is stationary. They can also supply high and low pressure air for cabin air conditioning and main engine starting. Although APUs are far less powerful, and therefore less noisy, than the main engines it is still normal protocol only to use them when an aircraft is at stand and if ground based auxiliary supplies are not available;

� GPUs: mobile, diesel powered generators that can supply power to an aircraft in preference to using APUs when an aircraft is at stand. While they are preferable noise wise to an aircraft’s own APU, they would only be used where fixed electrical ground power (FEGP) is not available; and

� Engine Ground Running: takes place at low power at stand as part of routine checks associated with flight. This element of ground running will be modelled as part of the start-up and manoeuvring procedures. Occasionally, high power engine running is required following significant maintenance or replacement works on engines.

9.10 It should be noted that high power engine running for test and maintenance purposes requires specific approval by Airfield Operations prior to runs commencing. They take place, on average, not more than once or twice per day and are only permitted in the vicinity of the Diamond maintenance hangar in one of the purpose built engine ground running bays located on either side of the hangar. For these reasons, it is proposed to scope out any detailed consideration of high power engine tests from the ground noise study.

Noise Indices

9.11 The noise indices considered most relevant to the assessment of ground noise are:

LAeq,16h: the 16-hour daytime LAeq value for the period 07h00 to 23h00 based on summer operations

LAeq,8h: the 8-hour night time LAeq value for the period 23h00 to 07h00 based on summer operations

Noise Model

9.12 Noise emissions from aircraft ground activity will be analysed using a computer based environmental noise modelling package. The model will factor in the noise generated by aircraft during the various phases of ground based activity (at stand, manoeuvring, taxiing etc.) at


different locations across the airport. It will be used to generate contours of relevant noise indices propagating out into the local community, as well as specific values at individual receptors.

9.13 The model will be validated against measurements of the prevailing levels of aircraft ground noise.

Spatial Scope

9.14 The spatial scope of the ground noise analysis will again be informed by the extent of the noise contours which are yet to be produced. It is expected that a smaller area of 6km x 6km centred on the midpoint of runway 04-22 will define the spatial scope of the study.

Ground Noise Mitigation

9.15 As or where necessary, recommendations for the mitigation and control of ground based activity noise will be made. Consideration will be given to:

Physical Screening

9.16 The effectiveness of the existing bunds around the north eastern end of the airport will be factored into the ground noise model. Where practical modifications to the extent of the bunds can be shown to give rise to material benefits, these will be identified.

Sound Insulation Scheme (SIGS)

9.17 The SIGS will be reviewed and consideration given to updating the qualification criteria for ground noise. This will mean that noise sensitive receptors exposed to ground noise above a technically assessed benchmark value will be given the opportunity to benefit from enhanced sound insulation, even if air noise levels are not sufficient to trigger it.


10 SURFACE ACCESS NOISE

10.1 The assessment of surface access noise and the preparation of the corresponding ES Chapter will be completed by Cole Jarman.


10.2 The 44.5mppa operating case (the ‘Do Something’ scenario) does not rely on any specific modifications being made to the road network. As a result, there will be no change in the physical relationship between road traffic noise sources and noise sensitive receptors, and any change in noise level at any location will arise purely as a result of changes in volume of road traffic. All geographic considerations will remain constant.

10.3 As a result, road traffic noise will be assessed by reference to the overall change in noise levels expected and not in terms of effects at specific receptors or particular locations.

Potential Impacts

10.4 Changes to the volume of road traffic associated with the proposed development are not expected to be substantial. As for air noise and ground noise, therefore, the scale of the impact expected as a result of changes in road traffic noise level is not expected to be significant. Nonetheless, such noise effect will be quantified/ assessed in the ES.


Road Traffic: Noise Indices

10.5 The noise indices considered most relevant to the assessment of road traffic noise are:

LA10,18h: the 18-hour daytime LA10 value for the period 06h00 to 00h00

Noise Model

10.6 Noise level increases at receptors alongside the existing road network will be analysed considering the 18-hour AADT traffic values with and without the proposed airport capacity changes in place.

10.7 Noise level changes will be assessed at locations on the existing highway network if a traffic flow change solely attributable to the increased airport capacity is expected to lead to short or long term impacts.

Operating Scenarios and Impact Analysis

10.8 The operating scenarios and impact analysis will be consistent with what is set out for the Air Noise Assessment (see Section 8).

Spatial Scope

10.9 The spatial scope of the road traffic noise analysis will be informed by the locations on the surrounding road network at which material changes to the volume of traffic are expected due solely to the proposed airport capacity changes. It is expected that an area of 30km x 30km centred on the midpoint of runway 04-22, as defined for the air noise study and consistent with the air quality study, will define the spatial scope of the study.


Road Traffic Noise Mitigation

10.10 As or where necessary, recommendations for the mitigation and control of road traffic noise will be made.

Rail Traffic

10.11 It is not anticipated that the proposed capacity changes at the airport will lead to any additional scheduled activity.

10.12 For this reason, noise generated by rail traffic is proposed to be scoped out of the study.


11 AIR QUALITY

11.1 The assessment of air quality effects and the corresponding Chapter of the ES will be completed by Arup.


11.2 A number of different pollutants contribute to local air quality issues. These are generally produced during combustion processes and include: oxides of nitrogen (NOx and specifically nitrogen dioxide, NO2); particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5); volatile organic compounds (specifically non-methane VOCs); carbon monoxide (CO); sulphur dioxide (SO2); lead (Pb); benzene (C6H6); and 1,3-butadiene.

11.3 At sufficiently high concentrations, these pollutants can cause some people to experience irritation in the eyes or lungs and breathing difficulties. People with existing conditions such as lung disease, asthma and heart conditions are most vulnerable and therefore most likely to experience these symptoms. Some air pollutants contribute to the formation of ground level ozone (O3), a secondary pollutant that is also harmful to health. In addition, pollutants such as NOx and SO2 contribute to acid and nutrient deposition at natural ecosystems, which can be harmful.

11.4 In accordance with the Air Quality Strategy for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland5 and Part IV of the Environment Act6, Uttlesford District Council (UDC) reviews the ambient air quality within their administrative boundary. UDC has designated an area in Saffron Walden (north of the airport) as an Air Quality Management Area (AQMA), due to exceedances in the annual mean NO2 concentrations. East Hertfordshire District Council (EHDC) has also declared an AQMA in the Bishop’s Stortford town centre for annual mean NO2 concentrations. For these AQMAs, the councils have prepared Air Quality Action Plans (AQAPs), setting out the policies and measures to be implemented to improve air quality within the AQMAs.

11.5 There are two main sources of emissions to air in the local area; the airport operations and road traffic on the highway network. Other sources of emissions to air are industrial processes, commercial and domestic activities and natural sources. Particulate (PM10 and PM2.5) concentrations in the region are also influenced by sources outside the UK.

11.6 Sensitive receptors in the area include several clusters of residential properties located around the airport, and the town of Bishop’s Stortford which is located to the south-west of the airport. There are also two designated ecological sites close to the airport: Elsenham Woods to the east and Hatfield Forest to the south. They are both designated Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSIs) and Hatfield Forest is also a designated National Nature Reserve (NNR). Both sites include habitats that are sensitive to nutrient nitrogen and NOx concentrations.

11.7 Construction works associated with the airport infrastructure forming part of the planning application have the potential to affect local air quality. This could be in relation to a temporary increase in Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGVs) on the local road network and the potential for dust generation. However, it is anticipated that the relatively small scale of construction works proposed would not cause any significant effects to local air quality.

5 Defra (2007), The Air Quality Strategy for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland 6 Environment Act 1995, Chapter 25, Part IV Air Quality


11.8 The proposed development has the potential to change traffic flows in the local area, resulting in changes to traffic-related emissions, principally NO2 and PM10, which have the potential to affect local air quality. In addition, the expansion will result in an increase in airport operations, which also has the potential to change airport-related emissions and affect local air quality.

Potential Impacts

11.9 Air quality impacts from the proposed scheme will arise principally as a result of increased aircraft movements and associated airside operations, as well as changes in traffic flows on the local highway network.


� temporary generation of dust and elevated levels of PM10 arising from construction works;

� increased staff and passenger journeys to and from the airport on the highway network;

� increased emissions from aircraft engines;

� increased exhaust emissions from vehicles operating at the airport, airside and landside;

� increased emissions from energy and heating plant (i.e. boilers); and

� miscellaneous emissions from other activities, such as aircraft fire training and engine testing.


11.11 The overall approach to the air quality assessment comprises:

� a review of the existing air quality conditions (baseline) in the vicinity of the airport;

� an assessment of the potential changes in air quality arising from the future operations of the airport; and

� formulation of mitigation measures, where necessary, to ensure any adverse effects on air quality are minimised.

11.12 The air quality assessment will be undertaken by Arup in accordance with relevant guidance from the industry, such as the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), Defra and the Institute of Air Quality Management (IAQM). The steps in the assessment methodology are described in the following sections.

Baseline

11.13 Existing or baseline ambient air quality refers to the concentration of relevant substances that are already present in the environment. These are present from various sources, such as industrial processes, airport operations and road traffic.

11.14 The review will identify the main sources of air pollution within the study area, including local air quality monitoring data for the past five years and local background concentrations.

11.15 A desk-based review will be undertaken using the following data sources:

� UDC and EHDC review and assessment reports and local air quality monitoring data;

� Stansted Airport annual air quality monitoring reports;


� the UK Air Information Resource website7; and

� the Environment Agency website8.

11.16 Spatial data (location and geometry), time varying information, activity and emissions data will be gathered to be included in the air quality model for the following scenarios:

� 2016 baseline;

� 2023 (35mppa) Design Year;

� 2029 (35mppa) Do Minimum; and

� 2029 (44.5mppa) Do Something.

11.17 As described in Section 2 of this Scoping Report, the ‘Do Minimum’ scenario refers to the future scenario ‘without’ the expansion in passengers and aircraft movements beyond that permitted by the G1 consent. The ‘Do Something’ refers to the future year ‘with’ expansion to 44.5mppa and approximately 285,000 movements of both current and next generation aircraft (such as the current generation Boeing 737-800 which will be replaced by the new generation Boeing 737 MAX 200).

11.18 For each assessment scenario, information for a typical summer and winter day schedule as well as annual ATM data by airframe/engine type will be used. Arup’s in-house tool will be used to link the aircraft tail numbers to airframe, engine and maximum take-off weight. They will also collate information regarding the nature of the current and future scenarios for each assessment scenario and airport operations policies. Traffic data for each assessment scenario will be provided by the transport consultants (SDG) in the form of annual average daily traffic (AADT) flows, percent of HGVs and average daily speeds.

Emissions Inventory

11.19 An emissions inventory is a database holding the spatial, temporal and emissions data for each source of air pollutants to be included in the modelling, for each scenario assessed. A detailed emissions inventory will be built using the data sources described above, and include:

� aircraft fleet and airside operational data from Stansted;

� the ICAO aircraft engine emissions databank9;

� the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) confidential database for turboprop engine emissions10;

� the Swiss Federal Office of Civil Aviation (FOCA) guidance on the determination of helicopter emissions11;

7 https://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/ 8 https://environment.data.gov.uk/public-register/view/search-industrial-installations 9 https://www.easa.europa.eu/document-library/icao-aircraft-engine-emissions-databank 10 https://www.foi.se/en/our-knowledge/aeronautics-and-air-combat-simulation/fois-confidential-database-for-turboprop-engine-emissions.html 11 https://www.bazl.admin.ch/bazl/en/home/specialists/regulations-and-guidelines/environment/pollutant-emissions/triebwerkemissionen.html

https://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/

https://environment.data.gov.uk/public-register/view/search-industrial-installations

https://www.easa.europa.eu/document-library/icao-aircraft-engine-emissions-databank

https://www.foi.se/en/our-knowledge/aeronautics-and-air-combat-simulation/fois-confidential-database-for-turboprop-engine-emissions.html

https://www.foi.se/en/our-knowledge/aeronautics-and-air-combat-simulation/fois-confidential-database-for-turboprop-engine-emissions.html

https://www.bazl.admin.ch/bazl/en/home/specialists/regulations-and-guidelines/environment/pollutant-emissions/triebwerkemissionen.html

https://www.bazl.admin.ch/bazl/en/home/specialists/regulations-and-guidelines/environment/pollutant-emissions/triebwerkemissionen.html


� the UK Air Pollution Information System (APIS) website12;

� the European Environment Agency EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook13;

� the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Emissions and Dispersion Modelling System (EDMS)14; and

� the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI)15.

11.20 An inventory of annual emissions will be built for the following pollution sources:

� aircraft main engines in the landing and take-off (LTO) phases, both at ground level and at height;

� aircraft auxiliary power units (APUs);

� ground support equipment (GSE), namely vehicles within the airport site which are associated with the aircraft turn-around and runway maintenance;

� other airport sources, such as ground power units (GPUs), energy and heating plant; fire training ground, engine testing ground; and

� road vehicles on the local highway network.

11.21 The pollutants calculated will be: nitrogen oxides (NOx and NO2), fine particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) and carbon dioxide (CO2). Nitrogen oxides and fine particulate matter are the main local air quality pollutants of concern; CO2 emissions data will be calculated for use in the carbon assessment, described in Section 13 of this Scoping Report. Emissions will be calculated using the data sources described above for all airport sources. Emission data for the road network will be calculated using the Defra Emission Factor Toolkit using data on the traffic volumes, composition, and operating condition (speed/level of congestion) for each link included in the model.

Air Quality Assessment

11.22 A construction impact assessment will be carried out in accordance with the updated 2016 Institute of Air Quality Management (IAQM) guidance16 and appropriate mitigation proposed. It is not anticipated that the proposed changes to the airport infrastructure will cause any significant effects to local air quality.

11.23 The ADMS-Airport dispersion model will be used for this assessment. The model takes into account all the relevant emissions sources on and off the airport and can allow for variations of each of the emission sources with time. Annual mean concentrations of NOx, NO2, PM10 and PM2.5 will be estimated for comparison with the relevant air quality standards.

11.24 The initial air quality modelling will be a verification of model-predicted concentrations against monitored values to determine whether the model output for future scenarios requires any

12 http://www.apis.ac.uk/ 13 EMEP/EEA Air Pollutant Emission Inventory Guidebook 2016 14 https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/apl/research/models/edms_model/ 15 http://naei.defra.gov.uk/ 16 IAQM (2014), Assessment of dust from demolition and construction

http://www.apis.ac.uk/

https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/apl/research/models/edms_model/

http://naei.defra.gov.uk/


adjustment to take into account systematic over- or under-predictions. Any required adjustment would then be undertaken in accordance with Defra guidance17.

11.25 Pollutant concentrations will be predicted as a grid around the airport, as well as at discrete sensitive human and ecological receptors in the study area. NOx and nitrogen deposition rates will also be predicted for the sensitive habitats at the designated ecological sites, namely Elsenham Woods and Hatfield Forest. However, at the present time, significant air quality effects on these ecological receptors as a direct consequence of the proposed development is considered highly unlikely. This is based upon the expectation that any increase in vehicular traffic (and associated emissions) on the A120 and other roads in proximity to these ecological sites will be low/ insignificant (< 5%). Moreover, emissions from overflying aircraft will be effectively dispersed at altitude, such that they are unlikely to have any significant/ measurable effect on ground level NOx concentrations within these sites. Accordingly, it is proposed to scope out any detailed ecological assessment of Elsenham Woods and Hatfield Forest from the EIA.

17 Defra (2016), Local Air Quality Management Technical Guidance (TG16)


12 SOCIO-ECONOMIC EFFECTS

12.1 The assessment of socio-economic effects and the corresponding chapter of the ES will be completed by Optimal Economics.


12.2 Lifting the 35mppa cap under the proposed development will enable the airport to handle 9.5 million additional passengers per annum compared to the Do Minimum scenario and these additional passengers will generate a higher level of employment at the airport in 2029 than would otherwise be the case. The growth will also create benefits for the users of the airport and will create wider economic benefits to the region and beyond through the airport’s role as a facilitator of economic activity.

Employment and Economic Impacts

Construction

12.3 Construction of the new RAT, RET and new aircraft stands will result in increased employment at the airport during the construction period. The assessment will consider the number of jobs likely to be created within the study area. Given the characteristics of the construction industry (e.g. short, temporary contracts, longer journeys to work) the construction study area will include the East of England region and London.

Operation

12.4 The difference in the levels of airport related employment in the assessment years between the ‘Do Minimum’ (capped) and the ‘Do Something’ (new cap) scenarios will be assessed. The effects will be assessed for a study area which represents the area from which Stansted draws its workforce.

Table 12.1 Stansted Employment Study Area

Local Authority No. of Employees % Stansted Employment East Hertfordshire Uttlesford Braintree Harlow Chelmsford Colchester Epping Forest Newham Redbridge Waltham Forest Enfield Broxbourne St Edmundsbury South Cambridgeshire Haringey Cambridge

2,684 2,007 1,650 809 398 257 188 167 145 144 141 140 134 133 130 72

24.5 18.3 15.1 7.4 3.6 2.3 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.7

Total Study Area 9,199 83.9 Source: 2015 London Stansted Airport Employee Travel Survey


Note: Cambridge does not meet the 1% criterion but the local authority is completely surrounded by South Cambridgeshire and is included to ensure there are ‘no gaps’ in the geographic coverage.

12.5 The previous G1 planning application defined the study area on the basis of the proportion of the airport’s workforce that lives within a local authority area. A criterion of 1% was adopted such that all local authorities who have at least 1% or more of the airport’s workforce as residents would form the study area. Using this approach and the 2015 Stansted Employee and Travel Survey yields a study area consisting of 15 local authorities and covering almost 84% of the Stansted workforce in 2015. Table 12.1 shows the proposed study area for the operational employment assessment.

12.6 The expansion and the operation of an expanded Stansted Airport will create employment (and incomes) in three ways:

� direct employment: this consists of people employed at Stansted during either construction or operation and who receive wages and salaries. These people are mainly based within the airport boundary and their employment is directly and solely related to Stansted Airport. For the operational assessment only, the analysis will establish if there is any direct off-airport employment; that is, people working in businesses whose job is directly and solely related to Stansted Airport but who are located outside the airport area;

� indirect employment: employment in firms supplying goods and services to the businesses at the airport during either construction or operation; and

� induced employment: employment supported by the expenditure of persons employed directly and indirectly, as above, and who would spend part of their incomes in the local area.

User Benefits and Wider Economic Effects

12.7 In addition to the employment creation effects identified above, there are also benefits to users and to the growth of the wider economy. The assessment of these economic effects will focus on the operational phase only and will consider the effects of making best use of the existing runway on users of the airport and on the wider economy. The latter effects will arise through impacts on business location decisions and inward investment, international trade, international tourism and business efficiency.

12.8 Although Stansted draws its passengers from across the UK, its main area of influence in terms of wider economic benefits stretches from north east London to Peterborough and throughout the East of England region. This is broadly the area covered by the Greater Cambridgeshire/Peterborough (GCP) Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP), the South East (SE) LEP, the five London Boroughs18 which are members of the London Stansted Cambridge Consortium, and the rest of the East of England region.

Potential Impacts


18 Enfield, Hackney, Haringey, Redbridge and Waltham Forest.


Construction

� Construction of the physical works required to accommodate the increase in aircraft movements under the proposed development will create income and employment opportunities for people in the East of England and London. The project will create employment and possibly training opportunities.

� It is expected that the construction workforce will be available from the study area (East of England and London) and that there will be no need for on-site residential accommodation.

Operation

� Making best use of the runway will enable the airport to handle more passengers which will result in more employment at the airport than would otherwise be the case. The proposed development will provide employment and income opportunities for people in the study area.

� It is possible that there could be an impact on the local labour market, but the increase in employment is expected to be relatively small in comparison to changes in the labour market as a whole. If the additional employment cannot be met by local recruitment from the study area, an assessment will be made of the need for in-migration to the area.


� Users of the airport will benefit from the increased throughput in that it will enable more people to fly from their airport of choice and help to meet some of the forecast demand in the region.

� The additional throughput will provide an opportunity for business passengers in the study area to access a wider range of air services and enhance the ‘air transport’ offer of the area i.e. the East of England region, GCP LEP and SE LEP. Stansted is the major international gateway for the East of England which itself is a key driver of the UK economy.

� The additional throughput will provide the opportunity for leisure flights for both inbound and outbound tourists.

� Stansted plays, and will continue to play, an important role in the freight market which helps the UK compete in the global economy.


Construction

12.10 As stated above, the study area for the assessment of construction effects will be the East of England and London. The direct employment associated with the construction of the required physical infrastructure will be estimated by applying official data on gross output per worker in the construction industry to the total cost of the proposed development. Indirect and induced employment will be estimated by applying appropriate multipliers to direct employment.

12.11 The income generated by the direct, indirect and induced construction workers will be estimated from official data on Gross Value Added (GVA) per employee. The estimated construction workforce will be assessed within the context of the industry in the study area.


Operation

12.12 The study area for the assessment of employment effects is set out in paragraph 12.5. Airport employment will be estimated as follows:

� direct on-airport employment and income: Direct on-airport employment in 2015 will be taken from the 2015 Employee Travel Survey (supplemented by 2017 survey data, if available within the timescale of completing the ES). As the number of people working at the airport is directly related to the volume of traffic through the airport, the forecasts of direct employment in the assessment years will be based on traffic growth with an allowance for productivity. Income will be estimated using estimates of GVA per employee;

� direct off-airport employment and income: The level of direct off-airport employment is very much dependent on the specific characteristics of an airport. At Stansted, planning policies require that most airport related activity is located within the airport boundary. However, it is possible that a small amount of employment is located outside the airport boundary in activities which are directly dependent on the airport. Sources of information on airport related activities will be reviewed and a telephone survey of any off-airport companies undertaken to establish the baseline position. If off-airport employment is identified, future employment will be related to traffic levels with an allowance for productivity. Income will be estimated using estimates of GVA per employee;

� indirect employment and income: This will be assessed using local employment multipliers. Future employment will be based on predicted traffic levels with an allowance for productivity growth. Income will be estimated using estimates of GVA per employee; and

� induced employment and income: This will be assessed using local employment multipliers and estimates of GVA per employee.


12.13 There will be economic benefits to the users and producers of the additional throughput (e.g. additional passengers gain a benefit from being able to undertake journeys). However, quantifying these benefits would require detailed analysis using a UK wide airport system model which can allocate passengers to airports in response to changes in throughput. DfT has such a model from which it might be possible to obtain some of the data required for such an analysis but given the scale of the proposed development, this level of analysis is not proposed. Therefore, at this time, only a qualitative assessment of benefits is proposed.

12.14 The wider impacts on economic growth will also be assessed. The baseline analysis of the study area will draw on official sources of data and published reports to provide the context for the wider economic assessment. This assessment will include analysis of:

� the policy context including relevant national and regional policies;

� the role of the airport in providing connectivity to business passengers and enhancing locational competitiveness;

� potential impacts on International trade and tourism; and

� potential impacts on productivity.

12.15 Having established the baseline position, the analysis will seek to establish the additional contribution that making best use of the runway can make to these activities, recognising that


much of the assessment will be qualitative. Depending on the availability of data, an assessment of the contribution to GVA growth would be made.


13 CARBON

13.1 The assessment of carbon emissions from the proposed development and the corresponding chapter of the ES will be completed by Arup.

13.2 This section describes the potential carbon emissions generated by the proposed development, and whether these emissions are potentially significant, thus justifying a more detailed assessment. The terms ‘carbon’ and ‘greenhouse gases’ (GHG) are often used interchangeably, but have different meanings. GHGs are gases in the atmosphere which absorb heat, of which carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most common and important gas. Other key GHGs include methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). For the purpose of the ES the term ‘carbon’ will be used to mean the CO2 equivalent (CO2e) of all GHGs. Note that for CO2 itself the emissions of CO2 are, of course, identical to the emissions of CO2e.


Legislation / Policy review

13.3 The UK’s obligations on greenhouse gas emissions are set under the 2008 Climate Change Act, which consists of a 2050 target to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80% on 1990 levels, and a series of five year carbon budgets leading up to 2050. The second carbon budget, which covers the budgetary period of 2013-2017, includes the baseline year of 2016 for which the UK’s total carbon budget is 2,782 MtCO2e.

13.4 Under the EU Emission Trading System (ETS) all airlines operating in Europe, European and non-European alike, are required to monitor, report and verify their emissions, and to surrender allowances against those emissions. They receive tradable allowances covering a certain level of emissions from their flights per year. The system has so far contributed to reducing the carbon footprint of the aviation sector by more than 17 MtCO2 per year, with compliance covering over 99.5% of emissions. For Stansted, this covers 90% of the departure flights and 89% of the arrival flights in terms of movements; and 83% of the departures and 78% of the arrivals in terms of distance travelled.

13.5 For flights operating to and from destinations beyond Europe, there is not currently a statutory duty to monitor, report, verify and surrender allowances. However, in October 2016, the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) agreed to implement a global carbon offsetting scheme for international aviation. ICAO’s Carbon Offset and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) will commence with a voluntary period (2021-2026) after which it will become mandatory. Under CORSIA, aircraft operators will be required to purchase offsets, or “emission units”, for the growth in CO2 emissions covered by the scheme. CORSIA aims to address any annual increase in total CO2 emissions from international civil aviation above 2020 levels.

13.6 Whilst UK domestic aviation emissions were included in the 2008 Act’s 2050 target, international aviation emissions were not formally included but have been referenced, with international shipping, as a “note item”. In July 2016, in setting the fifth carbon budget (2028-2032), the carbon budgets for individual sectors were set at a level consistent with meeting the overall 2050 target with international aviation emissions included, although they remain a “note item”.


13.7 As outlined in the draft Airports National Policy Statement19, the Government’s key objective for aviation emissions is to ensure that the aviation sector makes a significant and cost-effective contribution towards reducing global emissions. The Committee on Climate Change (CCC) advised that UK aviation emissions should be limited to 37.5 MtCO2 per year by 2050 (same as 2005 levels), the target set by the 2005-2010 government. The 37.5 MtCO2 from aviation would represent around 50% of all UK emissions by 2050.

13.8 The construction of the infrastructure proposed in the planning application is expected to take place between 2021 and 2022, which falls within the third (2018-2022) and fourth carbon budgets (2023-2027) of 2,455 and 1,950 MtCO2e respectively.

13.9 By 2025, the construction industry and Government aspire to achieve a 50% reduction in GHG emissions in the built environment based on the 1990 baseline20. This will be achieved through resource efficiency and adapting the built environment to deal with the effects of climate change; in particular, by developing plans to drive carbon out of the built environment, led by the Green Construction Board. The Green Construction Board reported that total emissions from UK construction in 2010 were 33.6 MtCO2e20. By 2026 the same report estimates that total UK construction emissions will have decreased to 30.3 MtCO2e.

Baseline carbon emissions

13.10 Stansted Airport publishes its annual GHG emission accounts in its Corporate Social Responsibility Reports. Table 13.1 shows the carbon emissions reported for past years up to 2015. A significant reduction in Scope 1 and 2 emissions was observed in 2013-14, which was due to emission offsetting through the purchase of grid electricity from renewable sources.

Table 13.1 Stansted Airport annual carbon emission accounts (tonnes of CO2e)

Measure 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Scope 1&2 Gross direct CO2 emissions (energy and vehicles) 50,167 48,184 46,826 29,199 29,684 29,377

Net direct CO2 emissions 50,167 48,184 46,826 29,199 9,940* 8,256* Scope 3 Aircraft LTO CO2 emissions 201,673 186,456 181,056 - - - Passenger transport CO2 emissions 173,887 165,916 150,447 - - -

Staff transport CO2 emissions 29,910 26,682 22,591 - - - Airside fuel use – third party CO2 emissions 7,080 6,946 6,547 - - -

Waste & water CO2 emissions 9,455 668 543 - - - Business travel CO2 emissions 37 37 57 - - - Overall Total carbon footprint scope 1, 2 and 3 472,210 434,889 408,066 - - -

Total CO2 per passenger 25 25 23 - - - *Significant reduction in net emission due to carbon offsetting through purchase of renewable electricity

19 Department for Transport (2017) Draft Airports NPS : new runway capacity and infrastructure at airports in the South East of England. 20 The Green Construction Board’s Low Carbon Route map for the Built Environment (2013); http://www.greenconstructionboard.org/otherdocs/Routemap%20final%20report%2005032013.pdf; Accessed: 15 March 2017.

http://www.greenconstructionboard.org/otherdocs/Routemap%20final%20report%2005032013.pdf


Potential Impacts

13.11 There is currently no specific guidance or standard that explains how to determine whether carbon emissions are significant and thus scoped in or out of an EIA. The Institute of Environmental Management & Assessment (IEMA) has published at set of overarching principles21 that state the following:

“The GHG emissions from all projects will contribute to climate change; the largest inter-related cumulative environmental effects […] as such any GHG emissions or reductions from a project might be considered to be significant […]”

13.12 Accordingly, in line with IEMA’s principles, a best practice approach will be adopted and carbon emissions associated with the proposed change from 35mppa to 44.5mppa will be reported, albeit these are unlikely to constitute a ‘significant environmental effect’ in the context of EIA. The main issues and impacts predicted, and therefore to be addressed in the ES, include the following:

� construction emissions will result in a nett increase in carbon, but these can potentially be reduced through mitigation measures such as more efficient construction measures, sourcing materials with high recycled content and, simply, through smart designs;

� the additional airport throughput arising from the proposed development is likely to marginally increase the overall contribution to UK emissions from the aviation sector. UK aviation emissions account for around 6% of the total UK emissions, which is projected to grow to 25% or more by 204022. According to the Draft NPS “any increase in carbon emissions alone is not a reason to refuse development consent, unless the increase in carbon emissions resulting from the project is so significant that it would have material impact on the ability of Government to meet its carbon reduction targets, including carbon budgets”23; and

� the increased throughput is also likely to lead to additional staff and passenger transport emissions as more people would need to travel to Stansted Airport for air journeys.


13.13 The carbon assessment will be undertaken in accordance with the principal steps (Figure 13.1) identified in the Publically Available Specification 2080: Carbon Management in Infrastructure (PAS2080)24. A life cycle approach will be adopted capturing both direct and indirect carbon emissions arising as a result from the proposed development. This will include emissions from construction and the operation of the airport.

21 IEMA, 2010, Principles on: Climate Change Mitigation & EIA; http://www.iema.net/eia-climate-changeI: Accessed: 17 March 2017 22 https://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201516/cmselect/cmenvaud/389/38905.htm 23 Department for Transport (2017) Draft Airports National Policy Statement: new runway capacity and infrastructure at airports in the South East of England. 24 Construction Leadership Council & the Green Construction Board (2016) PAS 2080: 2016: Carbon Management in Infrastructure. BSI Limited, London, UK.

http://www.iema.net/eia-climate-changeI


Figure 13.1 Principal steps of GHG emissions quantification (adapted from PAS 2080)

Construction

13.14 It is proposed that a bespoke carbon data sheet will be set up to capture construction related emissions, including the following activities:

� construction materials (the embedded carbon emissions associated with the extraction, processing and manufacturing of key construction material such as concrete or steel);

� logistics (carbon emissions associated with the delivery of construction material to site, as well as the removal of waste);

� on-site plant carbon emissions;

� workers commuting to site; and

� maintenance (regular inspections of assets and material replacement).

13.15 The extent of the carbon assessment will be informed by information made available by STAL’s construction/design teams. Any gaps in the data will be replaced with assumptions based on professional judgement.

Operation

13.16 Operational emissions are expected to capture the change in all land-side activities associated with the increased capacity accommodated by the proposed development. This includes heating and cooling, lighting, on-site vehicle use and APUs for example. This will include energy consumption from the main terminal building, the satellites, the fire station and other associated sites used in the day-to-day operation of Stansted Airport.

13.17 Transport-related carbon emissions will be based on outputs from the Transport Assessment (TA). This will capture the impact from road and rail surface access to the airport for both passengers and airport employees. The TA will report on vehicle or passenger distances travelled by:

� rail;

� taxi;

� car (driver and passengers); and

� bus or coach.

13.18 For all flights, those arriving at Stansted and those departing from Stansted, all emissions from the landing and take-off (LTO) cycle will be included. The LTO cycle is defined as including activities below 3,000ft: taxiing, hold, take-off roll, initial climb, descent (approach) and landing.

Aim and scope

Study boundaries

Data collection

and assumptions

GHG emissions calculation

methodology

Interpretation of results and

reporting


13.19 Projected aviation emissions will take in to account the following factors, using an approach consistent with that adopted by the Sustainable Aviation Carbon Roadmap25 and the CCC26:

� improvements in air traffic management and operation;

� improvement in aircraft and engine efficiency;

� sustainable fuel uptake.

13.20 Emissions above 3,000ft, primarily cruise, will only be calculated for flights departing from Stansted, a convention adopted to avoid double-counting of cruise emissions between airports. Figure 13.2 shows the LTO cycle and cruise.

Figure 13.2: Principal steps of GHG emissions quantification (adapted from PAS 2080)

Exclusions

13.21 Adopting a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach to the carbon assessment, in line with PAS 2080, would ideally include additional stages to construction and operation. Exclusions from the carbon assessment include:

� pre-construction – carbon emissions from desk-based studies and work such as site visits, design efforts or architectural designs. However, the carbon contribution from pre-construction is expected to be minimal in comparison to construction and operational emissions; and

� deconstruction – currently there are no end-of-life plans for the infrastructure associated with the proposed development, and its operational life extended through regular inspections, maintenance and upgrades.

Mitigation

13.22 Potential mitigation measures could include the following:

25 Sustainable Aviation (2016), Sustainable Aviation CO2 Road-Map, www.sustainableaviation.co.uk 26 Committee on Climate Change (2009), Meeting the UK aviation target – options for reducing emissions to 2050; https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/meeting-the-uk-aviation-target-options-for-reducing-emissions-to-2050/: Accessed: 21 April 2017.

https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/meeting-the-uk-aviation-target-options-for-reducing-emissions-to-2050/


� Code for Construction Practice;

� sourcing of material;

� material efficiency hierarchy;

� liaising with design and engineering teams;

� reduced taxiing/ delays; and

� renewables on-site.

Residual effects

13.23 The construction of the proposed infrastructure will result in new additional carbon emissions. These will be minimised through carbon-efficient designs, material selection and efficient management of on-site construction activities. Increased throughput at Stansted Airport will contribute marginally to the UK’s overall aviation emissions, which could increase the proportional contribution to UK’s carbon budget. This will be offset to a degree by the predicted increase in the proportion of modern, new generation aircraft in the fleet mix, which are generally more fuel efficient than older aircraft.

Conclusion

13.24 As discussed in Paragraph 13.12, and in accordance with IEMA’s overarching principles, carbon emissions could be argued to be scoped into the EIA in line with best practice. The proposed scheme is likely to lead to a marginal increase in the airport’s carbon emissions, although there is no agreed methodology for determining significance. Therefore, a precautionary approach will be adopted in the EIA, where further assessment will be carried out to understand the nature and extent of the impact and where mitigation measures can be included to reduce them.


14 CLIMATE CHANGE

14.1 The consideration of climate change and the resilience of the airport to such change will be described in a discrete chapter of the ES completed by Arup.

Key Issues

14.2 Climate change may have impacts on environmental and community receptors and resources within the area of the airport. Some of these impacts may, notionally at least, be exacerbated by the proposed development, whilst the majority of climate change factors will occur independently. This is the basis for an in-combination climate change impacts assessment of the effects of any proposed development on the receiving environment and community during construction and operation.

14.3 Climate change may result in weather related hazards and impacts which could pose risks to the assets, infrastructure and activities related to a proposed development over its lifetime. This is the basis for an assessment of climate change resilience of the design, construction and operation of any proposed development.

14.4 This chapter of the ES will enable the assessment of:

� the combined effects of the proposed development and potential climate change on the receiving environment and community (the in-combination climate change impacts assessment); and

� the resilience of the proposed development to climate change impacts (the climate change resilience assessment).

Legislation and Policy Review

European

14.5 The most relevant legal framework at the European level is the amended European Union (EU) Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Directive 2014/52/EU27 which places a requirement upon projects anticipated to have significant effects on the surrounding environment and communities to make a formal assessment of these effects, and identifies the important role that the EIA process can play in assessing climate change impacts and risks. It states that EIAs shall identify, describe and assess the direct and indirect significant effects of climate, and the risk of major accidents and/or natural disasters that are relevant to the project, including those caused by climate change.

14.6 The European Commission (EC) has prepared guidance to help Member States improve the way in which climate change is integrated within EIAs carried out under the Directive28. This guidance includes climate change related guidance for screening and scoping, analysing evolving baseline trends, identifying alternative and baseline measures, monitoring and adaptive management.

27 http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=celex%3A32014L0052 28 European Commission, 2013, Guidance on Integrating Climate Change and Biodiversity into Environmental Impact Assessment. http://ec.europa.eu/environment/eia/pdf/EIA%20Guidance.pdf (accessed March 2017).

http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=celex%3A32014L0052

http://ec.europa.eu/environment/eia/pdf/EIA%20Guidance.pdf


14.7 The amended Directive states that the vulnerability of projects to climate change should also be assessed within the EIA process. The EC guidance on integrating climate change into EIA recommends that alternatives and measures are considered at the planning and design stages to ensure, amongst other things, that projects are resilient to the impacts of climate change. It highlights a shift in thinking to account for possible long-term risks within environmental assessments, and the role of resilience in this shift. The EIA process is well placed to aid this progression, showing how a changing baseline can affect a project over time.

14.8 The EU has also released sector specific guidance on the interface between climate change and infrastructure, including projected impacts, and resilience levels. This working document accompanies the Communication “An EU strategy for adaptation to climate change”29 and provides further background material supportive of the narrative and arguments put forward in the Communication.

National

14.9 The IEMA has published guidance on climate change resilience and adaptation in response to the requirements specified in the amended Directive30. This guidance describes an approach to integrating climate change adaptation and resilience assessments into the EIA process in the UK.

14.10 The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) 201731 was published in January 2017. This is the second CCRA to be published since the 2008 Climate Change Act32 which requires the UK Government to publish a UK-wide climate change risk assessment every 5 years. The CCRA 2017 summarises observed and projected climate changes in the UK, and categorises risks into urgency categories allowing for prioritisation of adaptation programmes. Potential risk mitigation measures are divided into sectors including natural environment and assets, infrastructure, business and industry, people and the built environment, and international dimensions, as well as cross-cutting issues.

14.11 The UK Adaptation Reporting Power (ARP) first and second rounds of reports33 include the identification and examination of risks and impacts relevant to water, health and wellbeing, and natural environment, which are relevant for a range of EIA topics. The UK ARP grants the Government power to request organisations to report on their climate change related risks and to set out proposals for adapting to these risks.

14.12 The Adaptation Sub-Committee (ASC) reports to Parliament on the Government’s progress in preparing the UK for the impacts of climate change, by delivering the National Adaptation Programme. The first ASC report to Parliament highlights that flooding remains one of the most serious current and future risks to the UK and that there is a need to consider the impacts on health from current and future high temperatures.

29 European Commission, 2013, An EU strategy for adaptation to climate change 30 Institute of Environmental Impact Assessment (IEMA); IEMA guide to climate change resilience and adaptation, 2015. 31 UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 Evidence Report; Available online at: https://www.theccc.org.uk/tackling-climate-change/preparing-for-climate-change/climate-change-risk-assessment-2017/ (accessed March 2017). 32 Climate Change Act 2008, (c. 27). London, Her Majesty’s Stationery Office. 33 https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/climate-change-adaptation-reporting-second-round-reports (accessed March 2017).

https://www.theccc.org.uk/tackling-climate-change/preparing-for-climate-change/climate-change-risk-assessment-2017/

https://www.theccc.org.uk/tackling-climate-change/preparing-for-climate-change/climate-change-risk-assessment-2017/

https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/climate-change-adaptation-reporting-second-round-reports


14.13 The Planning Practice Guidance section on climate change34 focuses on the integration of adaptation and mitigation approaches within the planning process. It includes guidance on approaches to support sustainable development via 'win-win' solutions. This guidance introduces and defines the concept of green infrastructure as “a network of multifunctional green space, urban and rural, which is capable of delivering a wide range of environmental and quality of life benefits for local communities”.

14.14 The latest Environment Agency advice on climate change and flood risk assessments35 provides the climate change allowances and peak rainfall intensities to be considered in the assessment of climate change resilience. Similarly, Government guidance to local planning authorities on integrating adaptation and mitigation approaches to produce ‘win-win’ solutions that support sustainable development36 is also relevant for this assessment.

14.15 The draft Airports National Policy Statement (NPS)37 states that major airport infrastructure applications should take into account the effects of climate change. The draft NPS recognises that climate change adaptation is necessary to deal with the potential impacts of a changing climate, that impacts are already occurring and that new development should be planned to avoid increased vulnerability to the range of impacts arising from climate change.

Baseline Overview

Current Climate Conditions

14.16 Stansted Airport lies within Uttlesford District Council in Essex close to the border with Hertfordshire. Therefore, the Local Climate Impact Profiles (LCLIPs) for Essex and Hertfordshire will be used to inform the baseline context of this ES chapter.

14.17 The LCLIP reports contribute to an understanding of the local areas’ exposure and vulnerability to extreme weather events and how prepared the relevant authorities are in responding to these events and impacts. Understanding exposure and vulnerability to extreme weather events can increase awareness and action on preparing for future climate change and contributes to strategies for mitigating climate change related risks. Stansted Airport Limited published a “Climate change adaptation progress” report in 201638 as part of the voluntary second round of reporting under the UK Government’s Adaptation Reporting Power. The report sets out Stansted Airport Limited’s plans to integrate resilience to climate change into its business operations and builds upon the London Stansted Airport Climate Change Adaptation Plan submitted in 201139 under the mandatory first round of reporting.

34 DCLG, 2014, Guidance: Climate Change. Available at: http://planningguidance.communities.gov.uk/blog/guidance/climate-change/how-can-adaptation-and-mitigation-approaches-be-integrated/ (accessed March 2017). 35 Environment Agency, (Updated February 2016) Flood risk assessments: climate change allowances. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/flood-risk-assessments-climate-change-allowances (accessed March 2017). 36 Planning Practice Guidance, Climate Change Paragraph 4, 6-004-20140612 Available online at: http://planningguidance.communities.gov.uk/blog/guidance/climate-change/how-can-adaptation-and-mitigation-approaches-be-integrated/ (accessed March 2017). 37 Department for Transport (2017) Draft Airports National Policy Statement: new runway capacity and infrastructure at airports in the South East of England. 38https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/566149/climate-adrep-stansted.pdf 39 London Stansted Airport Climate Change Adaptation Plan A report to DEFRA in response to a direction to report under the Climate

http://planningguidance.communities.gov.uk/blog/guidance/climate-change/how-can-adaptation-and-mitigation-approaches-be-integrated/


https://www.gov.uk/guidance/flood-risk-assessments-climate-change-allowances




Future Climate Conditions

14.18 The assessment presented in the ES will provide climate change projections for the Stansted area for a range of climate variables, based on different probability levels and emission scenarios for the 2020s (which covers the period 2010-2039). This period has been selected as it covers the construction and operation stages of the proposed development; including the future assessment years of 2023 (when passenger throughput of 35mppa is reached), and 2029 (when the maximum practical passenger throughput of 44.5mppa is reached). The projections will be based on the Met Office’s UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09), which are the most recent and comprehensive projections for the UK.

14.19 The UKCP09 climate change projections for meteorological changes for the 2020’s will be presented in the ES for both a medium emissions and high emissions scenario at the 50% probability level. A reference range will also be provided in each case, using the 10% probability level medium scenario as a lower limit and the 90% probability level high scenario as an upper limit. Baseline values for the current climate, based on data from the Andrewsfield weather station, will also be provided in the ES for comparison, where data is available.

Potential Impacts

In-Combination Climate Change Impacts Assessment

14.20 There are several guidance documents of relevance to identifying potential impacts for the in-combination climate change impacts assessments for the other environmental topics considered in the EIA, namely: air quality, human health and quality of life, noise, socio-economics and transport.

14.21 These include:

� the evidence reports published by the Air Quality Expert Group40 and Defra41 which address the impacts of climate change on air quality;

� the Health Protection Agency evidence report on the health effects of climate change in the UK42;

� the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 Evidence Report43; Chapter 5, People and the built environment, and Chapter 6 – Business and industry which consider the socio-economic effects of climate change; and

� the Infrastructure Chapter of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 Evidence Report43 which outlines the impacts of climate change on transport systems.

Change Act 2008 (May, 2011). 40 Air Quality Expert Group (2007). Air Quality and Climate Change: A UK Perspective. Available: https://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/assets/documents/reports/aqeg/fullreport.pdf (accessed February 2017) 41 Defra (2010). Air Pollution: Action in a changing climate. Available: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/69340/pb13378-air-pollution.pdf (accessed February 2017) 42 Health Protection Agency (2012). Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK 2012. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/371103/Health_Effects_of_Climate_Change_in_the_UK_2012_V13_with_cover_accessible.pdf (accessed February 2017) 43 Adaptation Sub-Committee of the Committee on Climate Change (2016) UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Evidence Report

https://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/assets/documents/reports/aqeg/fullreport.pdf

https://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/assets/documents/reports/aqeg/fullreport.pdf

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/69340/pb13378-air-pollution.pdf

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/371103/Health_Effects_of_Climate_Change_in_the_UK_2012_V13_with_cover_accessible.pdf

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/371103/Health_Effects_of_Climate_Change_in_the_UK_2012_V13_with_cover_accessible.pdf


14.22 Using the above reference sources, the ES chapter will summarise the potential climate change considerations of the proposed development, for relevant environmental and community receptors and resources.

Climate Change Resilience Assessment

14.23 For the purposes of the resilience assessment, a climate hazard is defined as one of the effects of a changed climate, which has the potential to have negative consequences for the assets and infrastructure associated with the proposed scheme. The following climate hazards would typically be considered in an assessment for this type of proposed development:

� high temperatures and heatwaves;

� low temperatures, ice and snow;

� high precipitation, river, surface water and groundwater flooding;

� low precipitation, drought and soil moisture deficit;

� humidity;

� high number of sunshine hours and insolation;

� fog;

� storms and lightning; and

� wind.

14.24 The degree to which the frequency and intensity of these potential hazards may change as a result of climate change is explained in the UKCP09 reports, guidance and projections. It should be noted that the Flood Risk Assessment (FRA) for the proposed development will cover all sources of potential flooding hazards and will consider the climate change allowances set out by the EA advice on flood risk assessments.

14.25 A climate hazard may result in an impact on the proposed development. The impact may be direct, for example flooding of the construction site or infrastructure itself, or indirect, for example heat exhaustion of workers, which could disrupt construction and operation.


14.26 The proposed development is strategically significant yet relatively contained. Therefore, the assessment methodologies for the climate change impacts and risk assessments should be proportionate and well integrated with other topics’ own assessment methodologies and within the planning and design processes.

14.27 Both assessments will use the baseline data summarised above and will consider potential weather and climate related impacts and risks during construction and operation. The results will be presented in the climate change chapter of the EIA report with signposting to relevant sections of the standalone Flood Risk Assessment to be submitted with the planning application.

Available at: https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/UK-CCRA-2017-Chapter-4-Infrastructure.pdf (accessed February 2017)

https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/UK-CCRA-2017-Chapter-4-Infrastructure.pdf


14.28 The specific approaches and methodologies for each assessment are summarised below.

In-Combination Climate Change Impacts Assessment

14.29 The approach and methodology for the in-combination climate change impacts assessment is as follows:

� High level analysis to determine relevant climate change and weather data, emissions scenarios and probability levels.

� Review of all potential climate change impacts for EIA topics.

� More detailed assessment of each EIA topic’s respective significant effects, determining whether there are any significant in-combination climate change effects to report.

� Qualitative assessment of potential significance of in-combination effects, based on informed professional judgement.

� Consideration of mitigation measures to address adverse effects on the ability of the receiving environment to adapt to climate change, beyond those already suggested.

� Inclusion of allowances for future measures and monitoring, to ensure continued resilience of the receiving environment.

Table 14.1 Template for summarising results of the in-combination climate change impacts assessment

Resources / receptors potentially

impacted by the Proposed

scheme identified by

environmental topic

Effects of Proposed

Scheme on receptors / resources

identified by environmental

topic

Existing or embedded mitigation measures

Potential climate change

impacts on resources / receptors

Likelihood and

consequence of in-

combination impacts and effects given

existing mitigation measures

Additional mitigation measures to address

adverse effects on the ability

of resources / receptors to adapt to

climate change

Allowances for future measures

and monitoring

14.30 Table 14.1 provides an example template which could be used to summarise the results of the in-combination climate change impacts assessment for each topic during construction and operation.

Climate Change Resilience Assessment

14.31 The approach and methodology for the climate change resilience assessment is as follows:

� High level analysis to determine relevant climate change and weather data, emissions scenarios and probability levels.


� Assessment of climate hazards, based on agreed UKCP09 data.

� Identification of potential risks of these climate hazards, to the infrastructure and operations of Stansted Airport and the planning application.

� Consideration of the resilience of the proposal within the context of Stansted’s existing risk management policies and operational resilience measures.

� Identification of need for any additional high level resilience measures to protect against the effects of climate change.

14.32 Table 14.2 provides an example template which could be used to summarise the results of the climate change resilience assessment for each topic during construction and operation.

Table 14.2 Template for summarising results of the climate change resilience assessment

Climate hazard

Trend and likelihood of

climate hazard

Infrastructure and assets associate with the

proposed scheme

affected by hazard

Potential climate change

impact and risk to

Stansted

Existing or embedded mitigation measure

Proposed additional high level resilience

measure to protect

against the effects of climate change


15 PUBLIC HEALTH AND WELLBEING

15.1 The assessment of public health effects of the proposed development, incorporating wellbeing and quality of life measures, will be completed by RPS as part of the EIA. As discussed below, there is an established methodology for undertaking Health Impact Assessment (HIA) for major development projects, which will be drawn upon in preparing the public health ES chapter. Certain elements of HIA such as the community profile and health evidence base are expected to be presented as technical appendices to the ES. HIA scoping and stakeholder engagement will be integrated with the EIA scoping and consultation, as discussed further below.

Introduction

15.2 Health Impact Assessment (HIA) is a well-established methodology for assessing the impacts of major development projects that may affect public health and well-being through environmental and socio-economic pathways. Although HIA is not explicitly required by the Aviation Policy Framework (Secretary of State for Transport, 2013) or in the current EIA Regulations44 (SI 2017 No. 571.), it is often regarded as good practice for major developments, and has been used to provide evidence concerning the previous G1 and G2 proposals for Stansted Airport, among HIAs of several other airports in the UK. Promoting healthy communities is also a theme of the NPPF.

15.3 HIA considers potential impacts on public health, where ‘health’ is defined on a broad socio-economic model that encompasses conventional health impacts such as disease, accidents and risk, along with wider health determinants vital to achieving good health and wellbeing such as employment, social networks and local amenity. It considers both physical and mental health, and also addresses equality and social impacts. In the WHO definition, 'health' is "a state of complete physical, mental and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity" (WHO, 1946).

15.4 Appropriately scoped HIA therefore inherently addresses quality of life indicators that form part of good health and well-being. The proposed scope and approach to the HIA is set out in the following sections.

HIA scope

15.5 The HIA scope will be to assess future operation of the airport with 44.5mppa throughput in 2029 compared with future operations constrained to 35mppa (the ‘Do Minimum’ scenario) as the future baseline. Where relevant, construction activities for the proposed RAT, RET and additional aircraft stands will also be assessed.

15.6 The HIA will consider potential impacts on physical, social and mental health important to well-being and quality of life that may arise through environmental and socio-economic pathways. It will draw from the evidence presented in other technical assessments and chapters of the ES for the proposed development. A health pathway can be described as the way in which an activity influences a known determinant of health. From a preliminary review, the following health and well-being pathways are considered to be potentially relevant:

� air and ground noise (including surface access);

44 Although the current regulations do require that EIA should where relevant assess impacts on population and human health, including from accidents or disasters.


� air quality;

� traffic and transport (including road safety, potential community severance and impacts on access to services);

� socio-economic impacts (employment, income, investment and training/education);

� access to green space, recreation and physical activity;

� leisure opportunities and social connections;

� community viability (housing demand/capacity, any direct land/property-take, demand for services); and

� governance and decision-making.

15.7 Health pathways will not be assessed in isolation, as several will have inter-related impacts: for example, changes in environmental noise exposure have the potential to affect health directly (e.g. through annoyance and sleep disturbance) and also through change in amenity of green recreational space.

15.8 The health pathways assessed will be further reviewed based on responses to the integrated scoping exercise and stakeholder consultation, and on evidence from the EIA studies as they are undertaken, which may indicate that no ‘likely significant impacts’ through some pathways identified at the scoping stage, or may indicate that additional pathways should be assessed.

15.9 Although it is recognised that climate change will have health impacts at a global scale, it is not considered that such health impacts attributable specifically to the proposed development can be reasonably quantified (see Section 14). Therefore, this topic is proposed to be excluded from the HIA scope.

15.10 The HIA study area will be defined by the spatial scope of the relevant health pathways and evidence base for health impacts: for example, air quality impacts will be modelled within a few kilometres of the airport (as described in Section 11 of this report), within which a change in pollutant concentrations that could affect health may further define a smaller study area, whereas employment generation may affect a larger area including parts of north London. In general, impacts of the proposed development on local communities around the airport will be the focus of the assessment, but in some cases regional or national impacts (e.g. economic and leisure impacts) may also be relevant. The community profile developed for the HIA will identify the study area population and sensitive groups within the community.

Quality of Life Assessment

15.11 During the planning process for the previous Stansted G1 and G2 proposals, some stakeholders (including UDC, the National Trust and SSE) called for a ‘quality of life’ assessment, and UDC referred to guidance published by the former Countryside Agency and partners (CAG Consultants and Land Use Consultants for the Countryside Agency, English Heritage, English Nature and the Environment Agency, 2001) in its G1 Scoping Opinion. More recently, the Airports Commission sought to engage with quality of life as a topic in its appraisal of the proposals for airport capacity in the south east (PwC for Airports Commission, 2014).

15.12 In practice, ‘quality of life’ is not clearly defined, sometimes being treated as synonymous with general environmental amenity, and sometimes with people’s individual happiness and wellbeing. The WHO has put forward one broad definition, ‘an individual’s perception of their position in life in the context of the culture and value systems in which they live and in relation to their goals,


expectations, standards and concerns’ (World Health Organisation, 2007), which implies that attempting to establish a uniform measure of quality of life, or a sole indicator is not possible, and potentially contrary to its definition, in that it would never fully reflect the subjective needs and priorities of communities or individuals.

15.13 The steps in the Countryside Agency’s guidance, which was developed in the late 1990s, largely reflect ordinary modern EIA practice and the guidance is generally unclear about how impacts on assets identified should further be translated into effects on quality of life45. ‘Quality of life’ and wellbeing are also measured by the ONS (personal (ONS) and national (ONS)), Eurostat (Eurostat) and OECD (OECD, 2015), using wide-ranging suites of indicators, some of which overlap with EIA/HIA topics and some of which would be poorly applicable to individual development projects.

15.14 In its final appraisal report, the Airports Commission’s assessment of quality of life was quite limited, focusing on surveys of personal happiness/anxiety (published by the ONS and in third-party research), and stating that wider quality of life issues were already sufficiently addressed by its other environmental, social and economic assessment criteria46. This approach was criticised (ERM for Gatwick Airport, 2015), but was accepted by the DfT in its review of the Airports Commission’s work (Department for Transport, 2015), which noted at paragraph 93 that “although a full Quality of Life assessment ha[d] not been applied to each scheme… key elements [were] taken into account in the Commission’s overall assessment.”

15.15 That quality of life can be addressed sufficiently through environmental impact assessments (e.g. of noise impacts) and through how these are built upon in the health and well-being assessments of the HIA was also the view of the planning inspector for the G1 inquiry47, who concluded that:

“Relevant information and analyses are available in the ES, the Sustainability Appraisal, the Health Impact Assessment and through the consultation responses. Taking these together with the nature of the current proposal, I consider that an approach using a specific Quality of Life-type methodology in this case would not materially have added to the available information or reduced the degree of uncertainty with regard to effects on local communities.”

15.16 As set out below, HIA draws from the evidence of EIA topics to assess potential impacts on public health and wellbeing: their magnitude, social distribution and mitigation options. Given the substantial overlap between ‘well-being’ and ‘quality of life’, and the fact that HIA incorporates and builds on the evidence of environmental amenity impacts, it is therefore considered that an HIA provides the most suitable and well-tested methodology for considering potential impacts of this nature.

HIA Approach

15.17 The HIA approach will comprise the following stages of work.

45 One potentially useful suggestion, however, is to build on an EIA’s topic-based approach to further evaluate quality of life impacts on an asset level (e.g. to consider all the quality of life effects of impacts on a river, which may encompass information from several EIA topics such as hydrology, ecology and transport). 46 However, this was later supplemented by a Health and Equalities Impact Assessment Review (Jacobs for the Airports Commission, 2015), a Leisure Impacts quality of life assessment (PwC for Airports Commission, 2015) and an Equalities Impacts Report (Airports Commission, 2015). The HIA Review contained mainly recommendations for the scope of further work, being limited by the high-level information available at the options appraisal stage. 47 See paragraph 14.160 in Chapter 14, Inspector’s Conclusions (Boyland, 2008) where this is set out explicitly, and also more generally the approach to ‘main issues 3 and 4’ from page 591 onwards.


Integrated Scoping and Consultation

15.18 Scoping is the process by which the focus of the HIA is set, defining the key health pathways to be assessed (i.e. aspects with the potential to influence health, both adversely and beneficially); and, just as importantly, rationalising any aspects that are outside of the scope. This is necessary to ensure the HIA is fit for purpose, meets stakeholder expectations and identifies potential opportunities to support local and strategic health objectives, but does not cover matters that the HIA cannot influence.

15.19 The proposed scope of the HIA has been initially defined through a review of the available project information and health evidence, and will then be refined through the formal EIA Scoping Opinion and the response of statutory consultees. The Essex County Council Director of Public Health, East Herts Director of Public Health and the UDC Senior Health and Wellbeing Officer will be consulted through the scoping request and through an HIA meeting, if desired.

15.20 An important component of gathering an appropriate evidence base and tailoring the HIA to local circumstance is seeking the views of stakeholders and key representatives of communities likely to be affected by the proposed project. In this instance, an integrated engagement strategy will be applied, in order that potential health, quality of life and wellbeing impacts and the relevant environmental and social pathways can be considered holistically. Integrated public consultation will seek to engage with and catalogue community and stakeholder concerns, with feedback thereby influencing the scope and focus of the final assessment

15.21 As health, quality of life and wellbeing will be fully integrated into the scoping and engagement process for the proposed development, a separate HIA steering group or consultation workshops are therefore not proposed.

Developing Project and Community Profile

15.22 The project profile will draw from the planning application, the ES and available literature to outline the core airport activities and associated health pathways to be assessed. Identification of potential health pathways helps to define the scope of the study, from which it is possible to develop a suitable evidence base and a more informed community profile. The distribution, magnitude and significance of the health pathways are then investigated within the assessment stage.

15.23 Evidence suggests that different communities have varying susceptibilities to health impacts and benefits as a result of social and demographic structure, behaviour and relative economic circumstance (PHE, 2007). A community profile therefore not only forms the basis to exposure response modelling, but also provides a means to consider how potential health pathways identified in the project profile might act disproportionately upon certain communities and sensitive groups. In this instance, the community profile will make use of available demographic and health care data, as well as any socio-economic data made available for the project.

Health Impact Assessment

15.24 The assessment stage will map the project profile and technical outputs of the ES against the community profile to assess and appraise the magnitude, likelihood and distribution of potential health outcomes (both adverse and beneficial) that would be directly attributable to the proposed development.

15.25 The HIA is proposed to be integrated with the EIA as a Public Health and Wellbeing ES chapter, with elements such as the health evidence base and community profile presented as technical


appendices to the ES. This integrated approach will enable key HIA inputs and any mitigation recommendations to be cross referenced within the ES to aid transparency.

Health Action Plan

15.26 The HAP will expand on the normal recommendations section within HIA guidance (PHE, 2007), establishing recommended protocols and, if relevant, any monitoring regimes to be implemented to further reduce and remove potential negative health impacts while maximising opportunities to increase health benefits. The HAP will draw from and build upon the mitigation outlined in the ES and existing airport community support initiatives such as the Community Fund which are tailored to local circumstance and needs.


16 NON-SIGNIFICANT/ NON-EIA TOPICS

16.1 This section identifies a range of topics that are considered unlikely to be materially affected or give rise to significant environmental effects as a consequence of the proposed development. An explanation has been provided to justify the reasons why each specific topic does not require a stand-alone ES chapter. However, for the sake of completeness, the ES will include a composite chapter on these non-significant issues, providing further information on these topics where necessary.

Ecology and Biodiversity

16.2 The proposed 9.5mppa increase on the existing 35mppa cap or the moderate (<4%) increase in aircraft movements will not cause any significant harm to the local ecology and biodiversity, either directly or indirectly. In particular, the physical infrastructure proposed will be located wholly within the airport boundary, on areas of runway grass which has no significant ecological value. The construction works will take place at a considerable distance away from any designated or otherwise sensitive ecological receptors and therefore this poses no risk to them.

16.3 Hatfield Forest National Nature Reserve (NNR), a Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI) is located to the south of the airport and Elsenham Woods SSSI is located to the northeast. Both are recorded as experiencing high nitrogen deposition rates (above the threshold at which some changes to habitats would be expected), which is largely due to emissions from vehicular traffic on surrounding roads including the A120. Although airport-derived movements contribute to traffic on these roads, and therefore to emissions, this traffic is only a small proportion of overall base flow which has a range of sources including housing and commercial developments in the wider region. The proposed development is also unlikely to increase this traffic by more than a marginal sum (<5%). As such, the proposed development is unlikely to significantly increase nitrogen deposition locally or to exacerbate any associated ecological effects on the two SSSIs. However, as set out in Section 11 of this report, the air quality assessment will include a calculation of NOx and nitrogen deposition rates at these sensitive habitats.

16.4 It should also be noted that, as part of its Section 106 agreement under the 2008 G1 permission, STAL has already committed to undertaking a programme of air quality monitoring within Hatfield Forest and the timing, location and objectives of this monitoring are presently being discussed with The National Trust who manage the Forest. This existing air quality monitoring programme will be described further in the air quality chapter of the ES.

16.5 The airport continues to work towards the nature conservation objectives set out in the Stansted SDP 2015 and the proposals will not change or otherwise affect these objectives.

16.6 In view of the above, it is considered that the topic ‘Ecology and Biodiversity’ should be scoped out of the EIA.

Water Resources, Drainage and Flood Risk

16.7 In 2016, Stansted Airport consumed approx. 640 million litres of water, including STAL and third party consumption in relation to drinking water, toilets and washing facilities. The proposed development is not expected to increase water usage to the extent that it cannot be accommodated by the current supplier, Thames Water Utilities Limited (TWUL). In addition, in recent years an increasingly comprehensive water efficiency programme has been implemented, including the installation of water saving technology and a rolling annual programme of leakage


detection and repair. These efficiency measures should result in a net reduction in water consumption per passenger in future years.

16.8 The airport has extensive drainage infrastructure, with around 80 miles of pipework and drains, 30 pumping stations and 50 oil interceptors across the site. Rainwater runoff flows into a series of onsite balancing ponds, whereupon, following a period of settlement and/or treatment, clean water is discharged directly into local watercourses, under a discharge consent. The balancing ponds allow the airport to control the volume and rate of discharge and minimise risk of pollution. In recent years improvements have been made to maximise the capacity within the existing balancing ponds and improve the control of de-icing chemicals. Where possible, the airport seeks to maximise natural infiltration and reduce peak surface water flows to the balancing ponds.

16.9 With regard to foul water, the flows at Stansted Airport are divided into two general areas:

� the north-side foul sewer system collects all foul flows to the north-west of the runway, which are collected and flow by gravity to the TWUL pumping station to the western side of the M11 motorway for onward pumping to Bishop’s Stortford Waste Water Treatment Plant (WWTP); and

� the south-side foul sewer system collects all foul flows to the south-east of the runway, which are collected via gravity sewers at the TWUL pumping station to the south of the runway, adjacent to Pond C, and are pumped for treatment at Bishop Stortford WWTP.

16.10 The runway surface water drainage system collects runoff from the runway, taxiways and surrounding grass areas before discharging into Balancing Pond C. French drains drain most of the permeable area and storm water runoff containing glycol de-icing agents flows to Pond C for transfer to TWUL or discharge to the Pincey Brook watercourse, as appropriate. In addition, runoff from the aircraft stands area south of the runway is collected by the stands surface water drainage system. As with the runway system, storm water runoff within this system may contain glycol based products as well as traces of oils, hydrocarbons and aircraft fuels. This contaminated runoff is diverted as appropriate to Pond C for treatment and discharge to TWUL or the Pincey Brook watercourse.

16.11 The airport is located in Flood Zone 1, in an area with a low probability of flooding. The proposed areas of hardstanding (RAT, RET and stands) will be designed so as to not cause impacts to on or off site flood risk. However, as this development area will exceed 1ha, an FRA will be undertaken and provided with the planning application.

16.12 In light of the above, the proposed development is not anticipated to have a significant impact on water resources, drainage and flood risk. Accordingly, these topics should therefore be scoped out of the EIA.

Ground Conditions and Contamination

16.13 As outlined in the Stansted SPD 2015, the airport seeks to manage and minimise the risk of ground and groundwater pollution from a variety of sources. Examples of how contamination pathways are avoided include the foul water treatment system described above, and a network of oil interceptors, which are in place across the airfield and car parks to capture any spilt hydrocarbon or other contaminants.

16.14 The areas of land on which the proposed RAT, RET and new stands will be constructed have no evidence of previous contamination. Moreover, the extent and depth of excavation during their


construction will be limited. As such, the likelihood of encountering historical contaminated ground or creating new pollution pathways is very small.

16.15 The proposed development will not alter the airport’s existing procedures with regard to pollution control. The increase in aircraft movements will not in itself exacerbate the risk of pollution, because the airport is a closely controlled environment in which the deposition of debris and spills on the airfield are avoided at all costs due to overriding safety considerations to aircraft manoeuvring on the airfield.

16.16 In light of the above, it is considered that no significant effects on ground conditions and contamination will arise from the proposed development, and such effects can be scoped out of the EIA.

Archaeology and Built Heritage

16.17 With regard to heritage assets, two Grade II listed buildings are located within the airport site: the Bury Lodge Hotel and associated barns to the east. These lie over 1 km west and are not intra-visible with the part of the airfield in which the surface level infrastructure is proposed. Accordingly, the proposed development will not have any effect of the integrity or setting of these heritage features.

16.18 In terms of archaeology, extensive information is available and considerable archaeological resources have been identified and excavated as a result of previous developments at the airport.

16.19 The excavation and construction required by the proposed development will be minimal and will not affect any known archaeological or heritage asset or other cultural heritage features. Therefore, it is considered that there is no risk of significant effects on archaeology and thus, this topic should be scoped out of the EIA.

Landscape and Visual Impacts

16.20 The airport seeks to ensure that, where possible, the visual impacts of buildings and ground level activities are mitigated. The wooded areas on the periphery of the airport provide an effective level of screening and the visual impact of the airport will be lessened as this planting continues to mature.

16.21 As no tall structures are proposed, and the proposed additional stands and taxiways are confined within areas of the existing airfield and are in keeping with the scale and appearance of the existing infrastructure, their impact on the overall visual and landscape character and visibility of the airport will be minimal. These effects can therefore be scoped out of the EIA.

Waste

16.22 The airport manages waste in accordance with the principles of the waste hierarchy: reduce, reuse, recycle, recovery. The airport is currently working towards a target of minimum 70% of waste to be recycled by 2020 as well as sending zero waste to landfill.

16.23 In 2016 the airport produced approx. 5,436 tonnes of waste, corresponding to approx. 0.22kg waste per passenger. It is anticipated that the additional volumes of operational waste derived from the proposed development can be readily accommodated by existing on and off-site waste management infrastructure. In addition, taking into consideration the airport’s current waste management strategy and targets, it is anticipated that the proposed additional 9.5mppa will not have a significant impact on the airport waste outputs and management.


16.24 In light of the above, it is considered that the topic ‘Waste’ can be scoped out of the EIA.

Major Accidents and/or Disasters

16.25 The risk of ‘major accidents and/or disasters’ has now been introduced as a potential consideration under the EIA Regulations 2017. In respect to airports, this topic can be captured under the heading of ‘Third party risk’, which includes inter alia:

� the fatality risk to people on the ground from the effects of aircraft accidents;

� birdstrike risk, i.e. risk of collisions occurring between aircraft and birds; and

� the risk of wake vortex damage generated by aircraft in flight to properties.

16.26 With regard to fatality risk, it should be noted that the number of aircraft accidents worldwide is extremely low in comparison to other modes of transport and industrial activities. Notwithstanding these statistics, in proximity to the ends of airport runways the Government has established Public Safety Zones (PSZ) in order to reduce even further the number of people on the ground exposed to such risk. Under the PSZ policy, these zones represent a contour with a risk value of 1 in 100,000 in which development is discouraged. An inner area of risk is also defined within each PSZ immediately at the runway end, bounded by the 1 in 10,000 contour, within which no resident or working population is permitted. Against the above PSZ policy criteria, the estimated changes to fatality risk derived from the proposed development at Stansted Airport are not considered of significance.

16.27 The level of bird strike risk has the potential to be changed by any development that alters the number of birds likely to be present, the bird types seen or their movement patterns by way of increasing or reducing the attractiveness of a particular area to birds. As the proposed development does not alter the existing natural features in or around Stansted Airport, it is not considered that it will have any significant effect on the existing number, type or movement patterns of birds in the area.

16.28 Due to the very low density of development in the PSZs around the runway ends, the incidence of wake vortex damage to buildings is currently very low. The PSZ policy limits the potential for development in these areas, therefore limiting the number of properties that could be exposed to any additional risk in the future. Even accounting for the marginal increase in aircraft movements and higher proportion of large aircraft, it is highly unlikely that there will be any increase in the incidence of wake vortex damage.

16.29 In regards to other potential ‘major accidents and/or disasters’ (e.g. terrorism incident, fire or explosion), Stansted, like all modern airports, operates to very stringent standards of safety and security in accordance with UK and international aviation law. The proposed development has no bearing on these existing controls.

16.30 In light of the above, it is considered that the EIA topic of ‘Major Accidents and/or Disasters’ can be scoped out.


17 STRUCTURE OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL STATEMENT

17.1 The ES is proposed to be set out and ordered as follows:

Volume 1: Environmental Statement

1. Introduction

2. EIA Methodology

3. Site Context, Alternatives and Scheme Description

4. Forecasting Data

5. Development Programme and Construction Effects

6. Surface Access and Transport

7. Air Noise

8. Ground Noise

9. Surface Access Noise

10. Air Quality

11. Socio-Economic Effects

12. Carbon

13. Climate Change

14. Public Health and Wellbeing

15. Non-EIA/Non-Significant Topics

16. Cumulative Effects

17. Summary of Mitigation and Residual Effects

Volume 2: Technical Appendices

17.1 For transparency and to prevent an unnecessary ‘paper trail’, this volume will provide the full text of a number of technical assessments together with other relevant background information used to inform the EIA. At present, Volume 2 is envisaged to comprise the following appendices:

� EIA Scoping Report

� EIA Scoping Opinion

� Transport Assessment

� Noise:

� Glossary of Acoustic terms


� Planning and Assessment Framework

� Air Noise

� Ground Noise

� Surface Access Noise

� Construction Noise

� Background Noise Measurements

� Complaints Analysis

� STAL Background (AIP, NAP, NFP etc.)

� Air Quality Assessment

� Employment and other socio-economic data

� Carbon factors, assumptions and sources

� Community Profile

� Health Evidence Base

Non-Technical Summary

17.2 The Non-Technical Summary (NTS) will provide an accurate and balanced account of the key information contained within Volumes 1 and 2 of the ES. In accordance with the EIA Regulations, the NTS will be presented in non-technical language and be produced as a stand-alone document in a format suitable for the general public.