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CBED Elements

Urban Subpopulation

Human HealthIntrinsic (Biological) Factors: Age Gender Nutritional Status Disease Constitution Disease State Immunologic Status Reproductive Status Etc.

EcologicalEcological

Factors: Ecosystems Ecocycles Habitats Media Biota Selected

Species Watersheds Etc.

Economic Factors: Economic services Jobs Economic stability Natural resource

value Mitigation costs Contaminant

release impacts Etc.

Other Specific Subpopulations

Suburban Subpopulation Tribal Subpopulation

Ethnic SubpopulationsRural Subpopulations

Socio-CulturalExtrinsic (Behavioral) Factors: Cultural Practices Religious Practices Occupation Habits Dietary Factors Geographic Factors Living Conditions Etc.

Economic

Framework for a Consensus-based Framework for a Consensus-based Environmental Decision-making (CBED) Environmental Decision-making (CBED)

ProcessProcess

Contact Information:

Dr.Robert StennerPacific Northwest National LaboratoryP.O. Box 999 MSIN: K3-54Richland, WA 99352509-375-2916email: robert.stenner@pnl.gov

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CBED Process Standard GuideCBED Process Standard Guide

The CBED Goal: A Balanced Decisionmeans optimizing the well-being of a community:

CBED Elements

Urban Subpopulation

Human HealthIntrinsic (Biological) Factors: Age Gender Nutritional Status Disease Constitution Disease State Immunologic Status Reproductive Status Etc.

EcologicalEcological

Factors: Ecosystems Ecocycles Habitats Media Biota Selected

Species Watersheds Etc.

Economic Factors: Economic services Jobs Economic stability Natural resource

value Mitigation costs Contaminant

release impacts Etc.

Other Specific Subpopulations

Suburban Subpopulation Tribal Subpopulation

Ethnic SubpopulationsRural Subpopulations

Socio-CulturalExtrinsic (Behavioral) Factors: Cultural Practices Religious Practices Occupation Habits Dietary Factors Geographic Factors Living Conditions Etc.

Economic

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Surely commuting an hour to work, morning and night, would decrease one’s well-being. Time would be wasted, fuel spent, tires worn out, and money put into restoring the car.

However, tire company workers, fuel providers, and mechanics have their well-being increased as a direct result of commuters funding their paychecks.

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This story is a simple example showing the need for the CBED Framework. A longer commute

burdens the drivers, yet benefits the petroleum companies/ mechanics.

Two or more groups, needing to work together, but with distinct

views of ‘well-being’ would benefit from this CBED Process.

We can resolve this We can resolve this conflict through conflict through Informed Consensus Informed Consensus Building.Building.

Can we then say Can we then say peoples’ lives are peoples’ lives are better or worse better or worse

because of a longer because of a longer commute?commute?

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Health Example: AsthmaHealth Example: Asthma

Risk AttributionRisk Attribution FactorFactor

40% - 60%40% - 60% GeneticsGenetics20% - 30%20% - 30% Indoor Air Quality & Life-StyleIndoor Air Quality & Life-Style

Factors (Factors (e.g., e.g., pets, carpets, pets, carpets, hygiene, tobacco, solvents)hygiene, tobacco, solvents)

5% - 10%5% - 10% Outdoor Air Quality (Outdoor Air Quality (e.g.e.g., traffic, , traffic, heating, long-range transport, heating, long-range transport, industry, biogenic factors)industry, biogenic factors)

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Affected Stakeholder Identification

• Identify/Involve affected stakeholders• Identify/Involve interested party stakeholders• Identify/Involve regulating/oversight stakeholders• Establish “rules of engagement” for all stakeholders

Information/Issue Establishment

(Issues, perceptions & preferences of affected stakeholders)• Human health associated issues• Ecological health associated issues• Economic health associated issues• Socio-cultural health associated issues

Analysis/Forecasting• Human health impact assessment and modeling• Ecological health impact assessment and modeling• Economic health impact assessment and modeling• Socio-cultural health impact assessment and modeling• Agreement on weighting and valuations• Forecast range of possible outcomes based on the above analysis of impact assessments, weighting and valuations

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The Overall Process is Iterative at All Levels

Informed Consent Establishment

• Develop agreement on solution selection criteria• Consider temporal trade-offs based on selection criteria and valuations• Utilize decision assessment tools to implement above criteria and valuations• Establish temporal prioritization of the selected solutions

Initiatives/Actions• Implement prioritized solutions• Application of valuation criteria• Impact/Benefit analysis and tracking• Program adjustments and tuning

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Potential Health Exposure/Effect

Component?

No ImpactsNo Impacts

OR ORNO

Determine HumanHealth Impacts

Determine HumanHealth Impacts

Determine Socio-Cultural

Impacts

Determine Socio-Cultural

ImpactsDetermine Ecological

Impacts

Determine Ecological Impacts+ = Community Well-being

Community Well-being

YES YES YES

Develop Exposure Scenarios:industrial, residential,

Subpopulation-specific,

recreational...

Develop Exposure Scenarios:industrial, residential,

Subpopulation-specific,

recreational...

Identify Potential Impact Scenarios:

loss of access,loss of economic base,

negligible risk, unacceptable risk,

reduced use...

Identify Potential Impact Scenarios:

loss of access,loss of economic base,

negligible risk, unacceptable risk,

reduced use...

Identify Ecological Endpoints:

communities,species…

Identify Ecological Endpoints:

communities,species…

+

Impact of risk on cultural

Impact of risk on cultural

Integration Integration

PotentialEcological

Component?

Potential Socio-Cultural Component?

OR

YES

Potential Economic Component?

Determine Economic Impacts

Determine Economic Impacts +

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Initiatives

Forecasting

Informed

Standards

Stakeholders

Definitions

Information

Consent

Definitions

“Assessing everything in the

world we can think of, and hoping we

get lucky enough to find the answers.”

World Health Organization:

“The individuals’ perceptions of their

position in life, in the context of cultural and value systems in which they live and in relation

to their goals, expectations, standards

and concerns.”

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Definitions, cont.

Application uses include assessing the full impact of decisions involving the environment

Our present measures do not measure “full” community well-being

Why measure Community Well-being in this

Framework?

Why measure Community Well-being in this

Framework?

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The Initial Step: Information

Balancing Multiple Stakeholders: Many decisions have impacts that affect various stakeholders in completely different ways…

Example: An increase in commute time to and from work burdens drivers, yet benefits mechanics and petroleum companies.

Balancing the needs and desires of multiple stakeholders can be accomplished through Informed Consensus Building

“Backbone” of the ProcessStakeholder Participation

We are seeking to improve overall community well-being by placing effective, science-based tools in the hands of stakeholders. The stakeholders decide what areas are most important (human health, ecology, economics, socio-cultural) and use the tools best suited to that decision.

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Stakeholder GoalsWhose Goals are we Pursuing?

Owner/Responsible partyRegulatorsCitizens directly affected by the decision“Interested” parties

•e.g. Sierra Club, Greenpeace

Reaching the Goal

What is the Value of using the CBED Process?What is the Value of using the CBED Process?

By placing effective, science-based tools in the hands of stakeholders …

The stakeholders decide what is most important, and use the tools best suited to that decision

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Forecasting

Information

Informed

Consent

Initiatives

Facilitation

TOOLS TO FACILITATE

STAKEHOLDER PARTICIPATION

TO DEVELOP INFORMED CONSENT

TOOLS TO PREDICT HEALTH,

ENVIRONMENTAL, ECONOMIC AND SOCIO-

CULTURAL METRICS

TOOLS TO IDENTIFY AND ESTABLISH STAKEHOLDER

REPRESENTATIVES

Role of Expert Advisors

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Forecasting

Information

Informed

Consent

Initiatives

Facilitation

Stakeholders Do the Rest!MAKE DECISIONS ON ANALYSES: METRICS,

VALUATIONS, AND FORECASTING

RESULTS

PROVIDE INFORMATION,

FORMULATE KEY QUESTIONS

DEVELOP INFORMED

CONSENT ON PRIORITIES

MAKE DECISIONS ON INITIATIVES

AND THEIR IMPLEMENTATION

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Information

Issues, Perceptions,Preferences of affected stakeholders

Health, Environmental, Economic,Socio-cultural Factors

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Information, cont.

The informational stage of the process is the predicted “first step” of the process. It is at this point where the stakeholders who will be affected by the environmental decision at hand have already been gathered and are now ready to begin the CBED process. The ground rules for the process will be created at this point, and the ideas of informed consensus building will be stressed in order to reach decisions.

 

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Information, cont.

The gathering of essential information from stakeholders will occur within this stage of the process. It will be the goal of this step to determine stakeholder values and ideals, such that some focus can be offered to the analyses of the CBED process. For example, if stakeholders value human health far more than economic growth (although the two are quite related), then the focus of the information gathering and data collection will be more on human health information than on economic information.

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Information, cont.

It will be important at this point to discover what data presently exists in relation to the local economy, human health, the ecology of the area, and the socio-cultural pulse of the area. If data does not exist or cannot be found through other sources, then primary data collection might be a necessity at this point in the process. If it is determined that data cannot be gathered for a certain area of emphasis, then it might be necessary to reassess the stakeholders’ priorities to find another method in which to capture this information.

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Forecasting

Predictive models for forecasting Health, Environmental, Economic and Socio-cultural metrics

Agreement on Valuations

Forecast range of possible outcomes based on models and stakeholder valuations

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Forecasting, cont.

After the initial information has been gathered from the stakeholders, and we know where the priorities and values of the stakeholders rest, then the analysis of the environmental decision at hand can take place. This is where the set of tools from the “expert advisors” to the process come into play.

 Within the analysis stage there are four primary areas of measurement:

·        Human Health ·        Ecology ·        Economic ·        Socio-cultural

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Forecasting, cont.

Each of these four areas potentially encapsulates hundreds of possible forecasting methods and approaches. However, each of these four areas is also intimately related with one another—where one goes, the others often follow.

For example, an overall increase in peoples’ incomes often times results in greater use of natural resources and greater environmental degradation, an increase in human health due to the fact that health care is more affordable, and can result in more money being spent on cultural preservation. In essence, measuring one of these four variables will require that the other three variables be taken into account.

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Forecasting, cont.

There will be no specific path that has to be followed when performing these analyses. All that will be created in the CBED Process is a “toolbox” with many different options for stakeholders to choose from (with guidance from the expert advisors). Depending on the needs of the stakeholders, and the information available to input into the forecasting models, different analysis tools will be used for each environmental decision to be made.

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Forecasting, cont.This is a point in the CBED Process that requires a great

amount of communication between the stakeholders and the expert advisors. Oftentimes stakeholders are turned off immediately when their needs and values are thrown into a “black box” and an answer suddenly appears. Although this cannot be avoided completely, stakeholder facilitation throughout the forecasting/analysis stage can help alleviate much of this skepticism.

As well, it is essential that the four forecasting/analysis areas are able to “speak” with one another in respect to their results. If all of the economics results are in money terms while all of the socio-cultural measures are in qualitative form, then there will be no real way to analyze these measures together, which is the exact opposite result for which the CBED Process was created.

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Informed Consent

Develop Agreement on Solution Selection Criteria

Temporal Trade-Offs based on Selection Criteria and Valuations

Temporal Prioritization of Preferred Solutions

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Informed Consent, cont.

Once the analyses have been completed,the time will come to agree upon a solution for the stakeholders. In order to do this, criteria have to be created in order to decide which solution is preferred. The stakeholders have to agree upon what is most important to them (health, economics, ecology, socio-cultural) and come up with criteria that cater to what they value most. This structured area of “solution selection criteria” is essential to guarantee that all of the needs of stakeholders are accounted for during the selection process. Without this structure, certain needs could easily go unaccounted.

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Informed Consent, cont.

The stakeholders will have to begin making trade-offs among the different forecasting results that are presented to them. Not every forecast will be positive, so the stakeholders must decide what is most important (from the information stage and their solution selection criteria) among all of their options. Decision assessment tools can be used at this point to prioritize the stakeholders’ decisions and to help analyze the trade-offs that will be made depending on the solution that is chosen.

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Initiatives

Implement Prioritized Solutions

Application of Valuation Criteria

Impact/Benefit Analysis

Program Tuning & Iteration

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Initiatives

This step of the process is the implementation of the selected solution(s). Impact and benefit analyses must be run throughout this stage to see what the real impacts of the decision are, and what changes need to be made to the decision.

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Initiatives, cont.

At any point throughout this process, the participants can go back through previous stages to reassess their progress. If certain stakeholder values were not fully accounted for, then it will be necessary to gather more information before making and implementing a decision. If the expert advisors cannot produce accurate forecasts with the information that they are given, then they will need to go back to the stakeholders to remedy this problem. At any point in the CBED Process, there are opportunities to renegotiate and reassess the stakeholders’ needs and wants.

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Standards

Mission:

“To be the foremost

developer and provider of voluntary

consensus standards…that promote public

health and safety, and the overall quality

of life.”

Creating a “standard guide”*

–Standard: a document developed and established

within the consensus principles of ASTM

–Guide: a series of options or instructions that do not

recommend a specific course of action

*A guide only suggests an approach. The purpose of a guide is to offer guidance, based on a consensus of viewpoints, but not to establish a fixed procedure.

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Standards, cont.

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