ENSO AND GLACIAL RETREAT IN ECUADOR

Academic Night ProjectApril 29. 2015Eighth Grade

By: Antonia Herrera, Antonella Andrade and Maria Paula Jaramillo

INTRODUCTION

Did you know that the glaciers in Antisana have lost about 40% of their surface in 50 years?

ANTISANA’S GLACIER 15

Antisana is a volcano located 0028’S, 40 km to the east of Quito.

The Glacier 15 area at the year 2004 was of 651,701 m2.

From 1956 to 1966 this glacier retreated 4.56m per year which means 0.38m per month.

From 1966 to 2004 this glacier retreated 1.71 per month which means 20.52m per year.

The reduction of mass which is ablation, is directly related to ENSO.

In 48 years, 22% of this glacier has being lost.

The glaciers are used for the water that we use if the glaciers disspaear we will end up without water.

EL NIÑO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

ENSO is when weather and climate vary causing changes in water currents, atmospheric pressure and temperatures in oceans, specifically the Pacific Ocean.

There are two types which are the hot current (El Niño) and the cold current (La Niña).

El Niño comes bringing hot water currents to the pacific ocean every three to seven years.

La Niña has cold temperatures that occur at the equatorial pacific. The ocean temperatures along the equator are reduced as welll as the rainfall.

To predic the effects of ENSO scientists use Sea level measurements, upwelling measurements and ocean-based measurements.

ENSO has a very deep effect on Earth’s climate since it has strong teleconnections which are atmospheric interactions between widely separated regions. This can tell us predict floods, tropical storms and hurricanes.

OUR LAB Research Question: How does ENSO affects the retreat of glaciers in Ecuador?

Steps for this Math Lab:• We took the ocean temperaturas for

Galapagos Islands during 7 months.• We averaged the temperaturas for each

month and made a table in Excel.• We made a scatter plot with a equation.• Used the temperaturas for the last five

years at the Southern Islands.• Did scatter plot with equation of that

data for 5 years.• Got data for Antisana Glacier 15 Retreat

from 2000-2004.• Made table and scatter plot with

equation.

TABLE AND GRAPH FROM CENTRAL 2 ISLANDS

Month # of month Avg TempSeptember 1 21.47October 2 21.39

November 3 22.66December 4 22.44January 5 23.23February 6 24.94March 7 26.64

Average Sea Surface Tempatures for the Galapagos Central 2 Islands

2014-2015

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 821.00

22.00

23.00

24.00

25.00

26.00

27.00

Average Sea Surface Tempatures for the Galapagos Central 2 Islands

2014-2015

Avg TempLinear (Avg Temp)

Month(Strating with September 2014)

Ave T

em

p (

C°)

y=0.75x + 20.25y= temperature in C°t= time in monthsslope= 0.75y-intercept= 20.25

CALCULATIONS

TABLE AND GRAPH FOR LAST FOUR YEARS FOR SOUTHERN REGIONS

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.520

20.5

21

21.5

22

22.5

23

23.5

24

24.5

f(x) = 0.473 x + 21.86

Average Sea Surface Tempera-ture (SST) for the Galápagos Southern Islands 2010-2014

Year (starting with 2010)

Avegare

SST (

C°)

TABLE AND GRAPH FOR ANTISANA´S GLACIER 15

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.50

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

f(x) = − 16803.7 x + 362215.4

Antisana´s Glacier 15 Retreat

Year (starting with 2000)

Are

a (

m2)

CONCLUSIONS

The temperatures have being increasing we can see that in 4 years the yearly average ocean temperatures have increased about 2 degrees.

Since this 2015 temperatures are higher than the other months it may demonstrate that el Niño will come this year.

The temperatures are a positive line and since the glacier are negative we can conclude that every year that the ocean temperatures increase, the glacier area decreases.

Based on the equation by 2020 the average yearly ocean temperatures at Galapagos Southern Islands following the trendline we are following it would be 26.59 degrees and the Antisana’s Glacier 15 area will be of 26,135 m2.

SOURCESPainter, J. (2010, April 24). Glaciares de Ecuador en Retirada. Retrieved April 28, 2015, from http://www.bbc.co.uk/mundo/ciencia_tecnologia/2010/04/100412_ecuador_glaciares_lp.shtml

What are the causes and consequences of climate change. (n.d.). Retrieved April 27, 2015, from http://cmmoodleuio.cloudapp.net/pluginfile.php?file=/17904/mod_assign/intro/climatechange-9-12.pdf

Information given by Moni

Photos:

ENSO Photo http://ffden-2.phys.uaf.edu/645fall2003_web.dir/Jason_Amundson/enso_warm_cool2.jpg

1st glacier photo: http://www.bbc.co.uk/staticarchive/239af4f055feafbc793889564ff9ee58044592aa.jpg

2nd glacier photo:

http://es.ird.fr/var/ird/storage/images/media/ird.fr/actualites/photos-actualites/greatice/l-equipe-du-lmi-greatice-au-travail-sur-les-glaciers-du-volcan-antisana-5700-m-equateur-.2/205135-1-fre-FR/l-equipe-du-lmi-greatice-au-travail-sur-les-glaciers-du-volcan-antisana-5700-m-equateur-._large.jpg

Galapagos Islands Photo:

http://www.worldatlas.com/webimage/countrys/samerica/galpnewzzz.gif