ENSEMBLES – Progress Report WP6.2 meeting, Helsinki Chris Hewitt, Met Office Hadley Centre, April 2007 Project Office can be contacted on [email protected]

ENSEMBLES – Progress Report

WP6.2 meeting, Helsinki

Chris Hewitt, Met Office Hadley Centre, April 2007

Project Office can be contacted on [email protected] site is http://www.ensembles-eu.org

© Crown copyright 2007 Page 2

Strategic Objectives

1. Develop an ensemble prediction systembased on global and regional Earth System models, validated against observations and analyses,to produce a probabilistic estimate of uncertainty in future climate at the seasonal, decadal and longer timescales

1. Quantify and reduce uncertainty in the representation of physical, chemical, biological and human-related feedbacks in the Earth System

2. Exploit the results by linking the outputs to a range of applications, including agriculture, health, food security, energy, water resources, insurance


Research Themes (RTs) summary

System development and assembly

Model ‘engine’: hindcasts, climate integrations

Understanding, evaluation

Impacts, Scenarios and policy


Progress: GCM seasonal to decadal

Three different seasonal to decadal forecast systems to estimate model uncertainty:

Multi-model system for s2d forecasts installed at ECMWF built from EUROSIP operational activities and DEMETER experience

Perturbed parameter system, built from the decadal prediction system (DePreSys) at the Met Office

Stochastic physics system, from the CASBS system developed for medium-range forecasting at ECMWF

Design of a set of common experiments to determine the benefits of each approach. All show promising aspects.

Improved ocean data assimilation systems for s2d prediction


Progress: GCM centennial

Multi-model ACC simulations (IPCC 4AR)

Conducted historical runs (1860-2000)

and scenario runs (IPCC A1B, A2, B1)

including Hadley Centre perturbed parameter runs, maybe other GCMs


Progress: regional modelling

GCM’s

DRAFT – TO BE FINALISEDRCM’s

METO-HC MPIMET CNRM DMI ETH KNMI ICTP SMHI UCLM C4I GKSS MetNo CHMI

METO-HC

1950-2100

1950-2050

1950-2050

1950-2050

1950-2050

MPIMET

1950-2100

1950-2100

1950-2050

1950-2050

1950-2050

1950-2050

FUB

IPSL 1950-2050

1950-2050

CNRM 1950-2050

1950-2050

NERSC 1950-2050

1950-2050

Defined RCM domainERA40 hindcats (1961-2000) at 50km resolution: 11

completed, 7 already in the central archiveERA40 runs at 25km resolution underwayMatrix of driving GCMs/RCMs devised

0.22º (25km) grid mesh (courtesy of Burkhardt Rockel)


Progress (continued)

Scientific analyses (e.g. cloud feedbacks, carbon, sea-ice, …)

Linking impact models to probabilistic scenarios (including provision of interim pdfs from PPE to RT6)

Publicly available Climate Explorer http://climexp.knmi.nl/ further developed as integrated diagnostic tool

Producing daily gridded datasets for Europe (on same grid as RCMs), particularly for evaluating extremes

New emissions scenario developed (A1B baseline, stabilise to 450ppmv CO2eq) OLD (ECA daily dataset) NEW


Progress (continued)

Editable publications page available, hosted by UREADMM

Publications of ENSEMBLES results starting to appear in journals. ENSEMBLES Technical Reports series created

Need to increase the publicity of the results of the project

Participation at international meetings: EGU, AGU, EMS, ESSP, side-events at COP/MOP, joint meetings with WHO and OECD

West Africa to be the non-European RCM domain later in project

We are developing links with other projects and programmes (e.g. AMMA, ADAM, CECILIA, CIRCE, CLAVIER, DYNAMITE, Euro-Limpacs, GMES, MERSEA, QUANTIFY, WMO/WCRP mainly CLIVAR and GEWEX)

Our General Assembly is growing in popularity, internally and externally. GA2007 in Prague, 12-16 November

Expanding the “affiliated partners” (16 currently, more requested)


Affiliated partners

1. FAO, Rene Gommes, RT5&62. WHO, Bettine Menne, RT53. University of Zurich, Nadine Salzmann, RT64. ESSC, John Christy, RT55. Dept. Geography, Nat. Univ. of Ireland, Kieran Hickey, RT56. NCAR, Guy Brasseur, Jerry Meehl, Linda Mearns, RT2A&2B7. FRGCG, Michio Kawamiya, RT1&2A8. CCSR (University of Tokyo), Masahide Kimoto, RT49. Nat. Inst. Earth Sciences, Toru Nozawa/Seita Emori, RT2A10. SINTEF Energy Research, Atle Harby, RT611. University of Copenhagen, Eigil Kaas, RT2A12. University of Exeter, David Stephenson, RT4 (&5?)13. Nat. Acad. Of Scientists of Ukraine, Alexander Palonski, RT614. University of Newcastle, Hayley Fowler15. OURANOS Climate Analysis group, Daniel Caya/Diane Chaumont, RT2B16. Canadian Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics Network (CRCMD), Colin Jones


Stream 2 simulations – GCMs

s2d hindcasts 1960 onwards (previously 1991-2001) Hindcasts underway. Expected completion Aug08 Models: IFS/HOPE (ECMWF), ARPEGE/OPA (CNRM and CERFACS),

HadGEM1a and DePreSys (METO-HC), ECHAM/OM1 (IfM-GEOMAR), INGV

1860-2000 historical simulations and 21st Century scenarios using updated models and E1 (previously A1B, A2, B1)

Spin-up of control runs underway 20thC historical simulations by Aug07, may be 3 months later 21stC scenarios expected Aug08 Models: DKCM (DMI), HadGEM2-AO and HadCM3CHadCM3C (METO-HC), MPIMETMPIMET,

EGMAM (FUB), CNRM, CNRS-IPSLCNRS-IPSL


Stream 2 simulations – RCMs

ERA40 hindcasts (1961-2000) at 25km. Most in data archive, aiming for all by June 07

1950-2050/2100 (A1B and different driving GCMs) at 25km Due Aug07, may be 4 months later Models: METO-HC, SMHI, MPIMET, ICTP, CNRM, ETH, DMI, UCLM, KNMI,

C4I, GKSS, CHMI/CUNI, Met.no

RT3 RCM system developed, for use in RT2B by end April 07 Weighting of members of RCM ensembles, due Aug07 Recommendations and guidance on methods for construction

of probabilistic regional climate scenarios by Feb08 Assessment of robustness of sds techniques using GCM and

RCM output by Feb08


Plans for 2007

Develop data archives s2d @ ECMWF building on DEMETER database RCM @ DMI building on PRUDENCE database GCM @ MPIMET (http://ensembles.wdc-climate.de) building on IPCC WCDC

activities

Daily gridded dataset for surface climate variables for Europe,

due Aug 07

Develop impacts models (e.g. crops, water resources, energy)

Develop statistical downscaling tools

Improved estimates for changes in extreme events

Workshops (Joint ENSEMBLES/CLIVAR workshop; 5th Study Conference on BALTEX)


Further develop links with CLIVAR:

joint workshop with Task Force on Seasonal Prediction, June 2007

discussions with WGCM

Further develop links with other WCRP projects:

joint workshop with CFMIP, April 2007

GEWEX, e.g. joint involvement in BALTEX conference, June 2007

Develop links with other EC projects (e.g. AMMA joint workshop, Feb07)

ENSEMBLES General Assemblies are now attracting other groups

Outreach plans


Concluding remarks – innovative work

Brings together largely separate communities and integrates world-leading European research:s2d, anthropogenic climate change, global modellers, regional modellers (dynamical and statistical downscaling), scientific understanding, evaluation with observations, application modellers to deliver climate impacts, emission scenario developers, training programmes

Multi-disciplinary approach allows exchange of knowledge, ideas and techniques – for example extensive work on extremes

Multi-model ensemble-based probability approach will quantify uncertainty, increase understanding, influence the development of the next generation of models, leading to uncertainty reduction in the future

Examples of new products: multi-model RCM system at 25km resolution probabilistic methods for use for GCMs, RCMs, impact models probabilistic predictions from s2d2c timescales to explore impacts gridded observations for Europe with estimate of uncertainty public availability of large datasets developments to the publicly available Climate Explorer on-line tools for users to downscale Ensembles simulations


Questions

Documents

ENSEMBLES – Progress Report WP6.2 meeting, Helsinki Chris Hewitt, Met Office Hadley Centre, April 2007 Project Office can be contacted on [email protected]