ENSEMBLES Kickoff Meeting Hamburg - September 2004 RT6 Assessments of impacts of climate change

RT6 ENSEMBLES Kickoff Hamburg September 2004

ENSEMBLES Kickoff Meeting Hamburg - September 2004

RT6 Assessments of impacts of climate change

Andy Morse, University of Liverpool - WP6.3([email protected])

Colin Prentice, University of Bristol - WP6.1([email protected])

Tim Carter, Finnish Environment Institute (SKYE) - WP6.2([email protected])

mailto:[email protected]





WP6.1 Global changes in biophysical and biogeochemical processes – integrated analysis of impacts and feedbacks. Leader: UNIVBRIS Participants: UREADMM, PIK, ULUND, METO-HC, CNRS-IPSL

WP6.2 Linking impact models to probabilistic scenarios of climate change Leader: SYKE, UEA Participants: UREADMM, ULUND, UKOELN, NOA, DISAT, PAS, FMI, SMHI, UNIK, DIAS

WP6.3 Impact modelling at seasonal-to-decadal time scales. Leader: UNILIV. Participants: UREADMM, ARPA-SIM, JRC-IPSC, METEOSWISS, LSE, FAO, WINFORMATICS, IRI, EDF, DWD.

27 partners & 11 countries - 141 months in first 18 - total budget €1,962,000


Consultation with impacts groups from the conception of the project and input to ongoing decision making

Defining fields and interval for data archiving (within reason)

Each impact or application (model) will have a required level of skill from the probabilistic driving variables to make forecasts of economic value

Therefore impacts/application users will define skill targets for probabilistic forecasting systems and carry out an important part of the final validation

Impacts/application partners should develop their models, where possible, to make use of ‘skill-in-hand’ of current probabilistic seasonal forecasting systems

The end-to-end approachthe role of impacts/application partners



The integration of process models of impacts on the natural and managed global environment into Earth System Models.

Linking impact models to probabilistic scenarios of climate change.

Maximizing skill in the impacts models driven by seasonal-to-decadal scale forecasting.


WP6.1 Global changes in biophysical and biogeochemical processes – integrated analysis of impacts and feedbacks.

Work towards fully integrated European- and global-scale assessments of the impacts of changes in CO2 and climate on vegetation structure, function and productivity, forest and arable crop productivity, terrestrial carbon cycling and freshwater supply Consider the potential for feedbacks from these changes to the atmosphere and climate.

18 month activity

To set up the input data

Model developments for (a) global implementation of managed forests, and (b) global implementation of crops.

Perform first set of offline model runs for the recent past, present and future.


WP6.2 Linking impact models to probabilistic scenarios of climate change. Five Year Overview

Modelling behaviour of systems or activities in different environments developed, tested and applied under European conditions for evaluating the potential impacts of climate change.

Task 6.2.a Response surfaces and impact thresholds.

Task 6.2.b Scenario impacts and risk assessment

Task 6.2.c Evaluating the impacts of extreme events.

18 month planfirst phase of testing climate extremes models – wind, flood, drought etc.

Preparation of impact response surfaces for climate change scenarios against baseline data


9 RCMs ~50km … A22 RCMs ~25km … A2

3 RCMs ~50km … B2

2 GCMs


WP6.3 Impact modelling at seasonal-to-decadal time scales.

* Activity starting in first 18 monthsMaximizing skill in the impacts models driven by seasonal-to-decadal scale forecasting.

Closely tied to WP5.5 – Tier-1, Tier-2 and Tier-3 validation

Development of Integration Methodology includes downscaling and bias correction (working with other RTs)

Downscaling and bias correction for ensemble hindcasts *

Integration of seasonal-to-decadal application models within an EPS (DEMETER)*

Assessment of GCM vs. RCM driven seasonal-to-decadal application models.

Gaining the maximum skill from an EPS seasonal-to-decadal scale integration

Quantification of EPS skill requirements at seasonal-to-decadal timescales for application models.


WP6.3

from Morse et al. 2004, CLIVAR Exchanges


Issues and Linkages arising within RT6

• Timely and easy access to data – already in discussion RT1, RT2a, RT2b, RT3 and RT5

• Effective use of downscaling tools – already in discussion with RT2B, RT3 and RT2a

•RT5 for validation – with WP6.3 and WP5.5 directly linked

• Interest in RT4 findings

• RT7 economic impacts

Documents

ENSEMBLES Kickoff Meeting Hamburg - September 2004 RT6 Assessments of impacts of climate change