Enrollment to 2054

Dr. Jim Hundrieser

Plymouth State University

What is your desired future state?

Student Enrollment

Cheaper

MoreBetter

What is your desired future state?

Shape class

Current market penetrationCompetition

analysis

Goals:Increase SAT/ACT to

1200Increase first to second year retention to 82%Increase grad rate to

60%

Increase new student

DemographicsAcademic offerings

Price sensitivity

Goals:Increase new student class by 3% per year

Increase transfer class by 5% per year

Increase new and

graduate more

studentsProgram

delivery stylesCo-Curricular

offerings

Goals:Increase new students by 5% every other year

Increase second to third year rate to 75%

© Noel-Levitz, Inc. All rights reserved

Rising college costs

Declining yield rates

Shifting demographics

Increaseddiscounting

Decreased purchasing power

of federal aid

Increased family

borrowing

Colleges were facing six major issues in managing affordability

Students’ ability to pay

Both elements must be present for a student to enroll

Students’ willingness to

pay

Financial aid strategy must consist of two

criteria

What is the reality of higher education

Students aren’t

learning

We need to increase attainment

We need to truly educate the 21st century student

Our systems must be

more productiv

e and more

expanisive

What is the reality facing higher education?

First Generatio

n

AdultLow Incom

e

Traditional

Minority

Who is the 21st Century Student

Traditional And

Some Non-Trads

To increase the proportion of Americans with high-quality degrees and credentials to 60 percent by the year 2025.

Future degree need predictions

Between 2008 and 2018, The U.S. economy will create 46.8 million job openings from new jobs and retirement.

29.8 million of these job vacancies will be for those with postsecondary credentials.

16 million will require a bachelors degree.

Only 17.9 million will be for high school graduates and dropouts.

63% of job openings will require some postsecondary training beyond high school by 2018.

Source: Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018

The Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce

Impact of the economic crisis on student college planning

46% report that the current economic crisis has caused them to reconsider the schools to which

they apply or may attend (up from 34% last year)

Avoiding private school options—26% (11%)Commuting instead of living on campus—25%

(13%)Working while going to school—25% (21%)

Not attending college at all—1% (2%)

© 2010 Noel-Levitz, Inc.E-Expectations Report: Focusing Your E-Recruitment Efforts to Meet the Expectations of College-Bound Students

©2010, Noel-Levitz, Inc. All rights reserved2010 Noel-Levitz Sophomore Survey

And about half of all second year students report college financing concerns

1980-81 1990-91 2000-01 2010-11$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$14,747

$22,530

$28,059

$36,993

$6,725$8,483

$10,647

$16,140

$1,031 $1,515 $2,072 $2,713

Private 4-yr. Public 4-yr. Public 2-yr.

Trends in College Pricing, 2010. © 2010. The College Board.Reproduced with permission.  www.collegeboard.com.

Average tuition, fee, room and board charges in constant 2010 dollars, 1980-81 to 2010-11

Average net revenue per student (tuition, fees, room, and board)

©2011 Noel-Levitz, Inc.2011 Discounting Report

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$13,

690

$14,

199

$14,

954

$15,

640

$16,

670

$17,

445

$18,

187

$19,

338

$19,

660

$19,

649

$20,

292

Copyright © 2010, Delta Project on Postsecondary Education Costs, Productivity, and Accountability.

Overall discount rates jumped for fall 2009 after a decade of relative stability

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201024%

26%

28%

30%

32%

34%

36%

38%

40%

32.3% 32.8% 33.3% 33.7% 33.5% 33.4% 33.1% 33.0%34.1%

36.1%37.3%

©2011 Noel-Levitz, Inc.2011 Discounting Report

And the percentage of freshmen receiving institutional grants is on the rise

© 2010. NACUBO 2009 Tuition Discounting Study. Reprinted with permission. This material may not be posted, published, or distributed without permission from NACUBO

Virtual tours

Site personalization

RSS feeds

Online course catalog

Cost calculator

Campus visit request form

Online application

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

26%

27%

32%

34%

39%

40%

50%

32%

32%

32%

33%

29%

37%

31%

Extreme value A lot of value

© 2010 Noel-Levitz, Inc.E-Expectations 2010: Focusing your E-Recruitment Efforts to Meet the Expectations of College-Bound Students

Value of interactive Web features

Net cost calculators have the potential to dramatically shift the college cost conversation

Based on first 175,000+ contacts of Noel-Levitz published TrueCost Calculators™ – June 2011

Percentage of students satisfied or very satisfied with their

overall experience

© 2011 Noel-Levitz, Inc.2011 National Student Satisfaction and Priorities Report

Four-year privates

Four-year publics

Community colleges

Career schools48%

50%

52%

54%

56%

58%

60%

62%

57%

54%

61%

53%

Total Degrees

Table 1: Total fall enrollment in degree-granting institutions by type of institution: 1963 through 2009

Year and Type Total Enr 4-Year Public % of Total Enr

2-Year Public % of Total Enr

4-Year Private % of Total Enr

2-Year Private % of Total Enr

1963 4,779,609 2,341,468 49% 739,811 15% 1,587,780 33% 110,550 2%

1970 8,580,887 4,232,722 49% 2,195,412 26% 2,028,780 24% 123,973 1%

1980 12,096,895 5,128,612 42% 4,328,782 36% 2,441,996 20% 197,505 2%

1990 13,818,637 5,848,242 42% 4,996,475 36% 2,730,312 20% 243,608 2%

2000 15,312,289 6,055,398 40% 5,697,388 37% 3,308,460 22% 251,043 2%

2009 20,427,711 7,709,197 38% 7,101,445 35% 5,197,108 25% 419,961 2%

Growth % 327% 229%   860%   227%   280%  

Compounded Annual Growth Rate

3.2% 2.6%   5.0%   2.6%   2.9%  

Total Enrollment

Table 1: Total fall enrollment in degree-granting institutions by type of institution: 1963 through 2009

Year and Type Total Enr 4-Year Public % of Total Enr

2-Year Public % of Total Enr

4-Year Private % of Total Enr

2-Year Private % of Total Enr

1963 4,779,609 2,341,468 49% 739,811 15% 1,587,780 33% 110,550 2%

1970 8,580,887 4,232,722 49% 2,195,412 26% 2,028,780 24% 123,973 1%

1980 12,096,895 5,128,612 42% 4,328,782 36% 2,441,996 20% 197,505 2%

1990 13,818,637 5,848,242 42% 4,996,475 36% 2,730,312 20% 243,608 2%

2000 15,312,289 6,055,398 40% 5,697,388 37% 3,308,460 22% 251,043 2%

2009 20,427,711 7,709,197 38% 7,101,445 35% 5,197,108 25% 419,961 2%

Growth % 327% 229%   860%   227%   280%  

Compounded Annual Growth Rate

3.2% 2.6%   5.0%   2.6%   2.9%  

Graduation Rates over 20 Year

Table 10: Percentage four-year college students who earn a degree within five years of entry: 1990-2010 (in five-year increments)

  1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Public Institutions 47.9% 46.1% 41.9% 42.3% 43.4%

Private Institutions 57.8% 57.5% 55.5% 57.4% 57.2%

All Four-Year Institutions 54.9% 54.0% 51.2% 51.8% 52.3%

Six in ten college presidents say the system of higher

education in this country is headed in the right direction,

but a substantial minority (38%) say it is headed in the

wrong direction. © Copyright 2011, Pew Research Center: Is College Worth It

Student Enrollment FunnelFoundation of Practice

Competition, market demand,

and institutional strengthMARKET DEMAND: What students want – Relevance

COMPETITION: Unoccupied market positions – Differentiation

PROGRAM: What we do best – Authenticity

A rubric for analyzing your student markets: current state and future state (3-5 years out)

Student Market

Cost of Attendance

Institutional Gift Aid

State/Federal Gift Aid

External Gift Aid

Net Charges

First-Year

Transfers

Graduate Students

Non-Degree

Student Market

Federal Sub

loans

Federal Unsub. loans

Parent loans

Private loans

Work Student/Family

Payment

First-Year

Transfers

Graduate Students

Non-Degree

• What student markets do you currently serve and how do they finance your cost of attendance?

• How is their ability to finance your cost of attendance likely to change over the next 3-5 years?

• What strategies will you adopt to help your students manage your cost of attendance?

Do you have a pricing and positioning strategy?

Selectivity/Demand

Cost of Attendance or Net Charges

High cost, high selectivityHigh cost, low selectivity

Low cost, low selectivity Low cost, high selectivity

Selectivity/Demand

Cost of Attendance or Net Charges

N=21

N=35

N=4

N=14

Competitor analysis (lost admits)

N=10

N=5

N=3

Execute on known fundamentals

• Package financial aid early to provide maximum time for financial planning

• Make the financial aid award mirror the first bill (estimated balance due, payment plan options with amounts)

• Assess student award reaction and aggressively intervene with families who want your institution, but are having difficulty developing a financial strategy

• Communicate net cost of attendance early and often (view the federal net price calculator requirement as an opportunity)

Looking ahead to the 2054

Erosion of a flat-fee rate

Financial aid process more and more web-based

Our process will be more complicated; not less = Implications for staff/staffing

Likely 10 to 15+ years before we really address cost, affordability, and realities linked to degree completion

Financial aid leveraging moves us more and more away from fair/equal and into yield based on market share

My Thanks to You!