Enrollment History and Strategies

Kathie Welch

October 7, 2015

"Now, here, you see, it takes all of the running you can do to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!" –Red Queen in Through the Looking Glass by Lewis Carrol, Drawing by John Tenniel

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2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

Fall

20

00

Fall

20

01

Fall

20

02

Fall

20

03

Fall

20

04

Fall

20

05

Fall

20

06

Fall

20

07

Fall

20

08

Fall

20

09

Fall

20

10

Fall

20

11

Fall

20

12

Fall

20

13

Fall

20

14

Fall

20

15

Fall CensusHeadcount

Fall FinalFTES

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2000-2001

2001-2002

2002-2003

2003-2004

2004-2005

2005-2006

2006-2007

2007-2008

2008-2009

2009-2010

2010-2011

2011-2012

2012-2013

2013-2014

2014-2015

2015-2016

2016-2017

FTES

Apportionment FTES History

Cap Actual

Challenges

• Decline in overall headcount

• Regulatory changes and increased reporting accuracy caused an overall significant decrease in ongoing FTES• TBA clean up (~ 400 FTES decline

over two years)• Positive hours reporting change in

Athletics and performing arts in VAPA from 11-12 to 12-13 (~ 150 to 200 FTES decline)

• FTES decline Changes in flex time regulatory reporting (~ 600 FTES decline)

• Aligning enrollment data reporting tools: tracker, XFTE, CSAR, 320

• Curricular changes

• Repeatability

• Other legislative changes in financial aid and registration priorities

• Capacity constraints• Large lecture classrooms• Wet Labs• Online instruction

Opportunities• Distance Education and

cybersession• Summer Terms• Long term trend towards

more full time enrollments• Enhance retention• Aligned enrollment data

reporting tools: tracker, XFTE, CSAR, 320

• Section coding corrections (~ +15 FTES)

• SSSP and Equity funding (retention and success of existing students improved)

• Hopefully moves the needle to get more through basic skills to transfer

• Noncredit CTE certificates• Increased business

partnerships that can increase enrollments

• Concurrent HS students

Best Case – 1% Down 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17Bdgt Stblty

Summer 1 587 89 368Fall 5,006 4,758 4,758 Spring 4,669 4,523 4,523 Summer 2 629 350 460 258 remain

PS Inservice 300 300 Inservice – AdditionalTotal 10,891 10,020 10,409

Mid Case – 2% Down 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17Bdgt Stblty

Summer 1 587 89 268 Fall 5,006 4,710 4,710 Spring 4,669 4,478 4,478 Summer 2 629 450 650 68 remain

PS Inservice 300 300 Inservice – AdditionalTotal 10,891 10,027 10,406

Worst Case – 3% Down 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17Bdgt Stblty

Summer 1 587 89 193 Fall 5,006 4,662 4,662 Spring 4,669 4,432 4,432 Summer 2 629 525 718 PS Inservice 300 300 Inservice – AdditionalTotal 10,891 10,008 10,305

High Level Enrollment Projections

The following assumptions are made for the mid-case scenario:• 2% decline in 15-16 primary terms as

compared to 14-15 primary terms• 232 tus permanently removed in 15-16• Summers are not balanced (used both

summers in 14-15)• Use most of summer 2 in 15-16

(summer 16)• Use most of summer 2 in 16-17

(summer 17)• Growth potential from new FTES cap

• DE• STEAM• Enhanced Noncredit program• Fitness Education Center• Summer session• Concurrent High School• Enrollment• Other

Thank You!