Enjeux 2014

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1Havas Public Affairs Brussels

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Enjeux 2014European Elections

European Elections: Initial analysis of the resultsN°2 – 28 May 2014

We told you “this year would be different”…

N°2

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European electionsOverall analysis

2N°2

A Eurosceptic / Far Right tidal wave

The turnout remaining broadly stable in the European Union as a whole (43.09%), the 2014 European Parliament elections have been marked by a strong wave of Euroscepticism.“A populist earthquake”! – the Financial Times; “An electoral shock in France” according to Germany’s Bild Zeitung, “Avalanche” – Corriere della Sera. These are the terms used by the Press to describe the unprecedented score of the Front National in France, which gained almost 25% of votes,

Elsewhere in Europe, far-right and Eurosceptic parties have made considerable, even massive progress. In the UK and Denmark, the euroceptic and nationalist parties have won their respective elections. Nigel Farage’s UKIP scored a historic victory over the Conservatives and Labour, with 26.77%. The Danish People’s Party, with an anti-immigration agenda, has also won an important victory, with 26.9 %. In Austria the extreme-right FPÖ, which aims to build an alliance with other groups, such

as the French Front National, came third, with 19.7% of the votes (12,7% in 2009). In Germany the anti-European and anti-euro party Alternative für Deutschland, only created in spring 2013, entered the European Parliament with 7 seats. In Italy the 5Star movement and the Lega Nord have both won new seats and the Greek neo-Nazi party Golden Dawn, achieving 9.38% of the votes, will send three MEPs to Brussels.

Despite having lost a considerable number of seats the three largest Groups (PPE, S&D, ALDE) have maintained their dominance (2/3 of seats). Although it has lost around 60 seats, the EPP group (centre right) will remain the largest Group with 213 seats (28.36%). The Socialist and Democrats Group (S&D) also lost some ground, reducing from 196-191 seats (25.43%). The Liberal

ALDE group lost 19 seats, keeping 64 seats (8.52%). The Greens also decreased their share to 6.92% (52 seats, reduced from 57). The conservative ECR won 46 seats (6.13%), a loss of 11 seats. Only the United Left GUE, Eurosceptic EFD and non attached Groups increased their seats. The GUE increased from 35-42 seats, the EFD from 31-38 seats and the Non-attached from 33-41.

Even with the great increase in the Eurosceptic vote and the increased polarization within the Parliament between Groups, the global balance remains the same: although Eurosceptic Groups will hold between 20-25% of the 751 seats, much will depend on their ability to work together to effectively influence the direction of policy.

Majority preserved for the three principal political groups

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European electionsOverall results

3N°2

2014 2009

2014 2009%

2009-14

- 20.32 %

- 0.62 %

- 21 %

- 6.98 %

- 17.6 %

31.07 %

17.4 %

26.7 %

- -

Source: European Parliament

Source: European Parliament

2014

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Member state analysis

4N°2

Far-right gain ground, but come in third

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5N°2

Victory for the Centre-Right

The rise of the Flemish nationalists

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6N°2

Low turnout for the first EU elections

Parties retain their seats

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7N°2

Liberals in the lead

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8N°2

Liberals carry the day

Victory for the Danish People’s Party

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9N°2

Historic victory for the far-right

The Right in the lead

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10N°2

A number of well-known French MEPs have not been re-elected, including:

The CDU leads – with a reduced mandate

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11N°2

Wide victory for the Conservatives of Orban

Rise of extremism in Greece

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12N°2

Spectacular victory for the Democratic party

Independants in the lead

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13N°2

Victory for the conservatives

A tight five-way battle

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14N°2

Little change in the Status Quo

The Labour Party maintaining its dominance

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15N°2

Geert Wilders loses ground

Conservatives and Eurosceptics neck to neck

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16N°2

The Socialists oposition narrowly heads the government coalition

The Centre-Left coalition remains in the lead

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Conservatives lead the polls

Widspread apathy leads the lowest turnout in the EU

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18N°2

Conservatives and Socialists lose ground

Social Democrats and Greens in the driving seat

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19N°2

UKIP in historic victory

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Towards a new Commission President

20N°2

Informal dinner of Heads of State or Government and Conference of Presidents

On the morning of 27 May, the Conference of Presidents (the leaders of the political groups from the current European Parliament) met and issued a statement confirming that Jean-Claude Juncker, as the candidate of the largest group in the next Parliament “will be the first to attempt to form the required majority”. However, despite the declaration of the Socialist group leader, Hannes Swoboda, supporting Jean-Claude Juncker, for his part, Martin Schulz (current EP president) has not given up his bid to win Barroso's succession. On Tuesday afternoon, at a special EU Summit, heads of state and government gave a mandate to Council President Herman Van Rompuy to start consultations with the aim of electing a new Commission President. This leaves the door open to other candidates, apart from Jean-Claude Juncker. In his final statement, Van Rompuy said that this “first discussion” had been “useful”, a diplomatic euphemism for inconclusive. The name of Juncker was however not even mentioned by Van Rompuy in his statement, a clear indication that leaders are keeping all their options open. Speaking at her own press conference, German Chancellor Angela Merkel confirmed this impression by stating that the Council is bound to come up with its own proposal for candidates under the Lisbon Treaty. "As a member of the EPP, I proposed Jean-Claude Juncker as President for the European Commission. I supported him. I have not forgotten this one day after the election. But still I'm bound by the European treaties," Merkel told Brussels' press corps. The German Chancellor, uncharacteristically upset while taking questions, added that it should still be acceptable to suggest new candidates to the Parliament. Moreover, four leaders spoke out against Juncker’s nomination: Mark Rutte of the Netherlands, Fredrik Reinfeldt of Sweden, Viktor Orban of Hungary and the UK’s David Cameron.Van Rompuy must now report back to the European Council on 26-27 June. He said that he would consult with the leaders of the new political groups as soon as they had been constituted. The formation of the political groups will begin next week but such was the upheaval in the elections, with several new parties joining the Parliament, that it may not be complete for another three weeks. (The nomination requires a weighted majority of member states).

Commission Presidency: confusion reigns

In the absence of a clear Parliamentary majority, the institutions are braced for long and delicate negotiations to achieve the selection of a new Commission President. This has not stopped Jean-Claude Juncker (EPP lead candidate) from claiming the post. However, he has stated that he would refuse the mandate if he has to rely on the vote of the extreme right. Socialist Martin Schulz has also said that he remains hopeful of becoming President and asserts that he has not been beaten following the differing results in the member states.Guy Verhofstadt (ALDE) has commented that the EP and Socialists have together lost more than 80 seats. “A broader discussion is required”- he argued, calling for a “new step in European integration”. Ska Keller has indicated that the Greens will only support a candidate who acknowledges environmental issues. They would like to open discussions with Jean-Claude Juncker.

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Next steps

21N°2

Creation of political groups: play has started

The definitive results are expected to take several more days. From the latest estimation of the Parliament, 64 of the 751 elected MEPs have not yet chosen their EP political Group, which brings some uncertainty as to the political make up of the Parliament. However, the political Groups and national delegations have already started the difficult and delicate process of building EP political Groups and choosing a Commission President (and from there the other principal posts of the European Institutions).

An extreme-right EP Group?

25 MEPs from 7 different countries are required to create a group. The French Front National alone would constitute 25 MEPs, but it is not yet clear whether it will be able to regroup 7 national delegations. According to latest predictions, Marine Le Pen could ally with the NL PVV, the Austrian FPÖ, the Lega Nord, which couldleave the EFD, the Slovak SNS and the Belgian nationalist, Vlaams Belang, constituting 6 national delegations. Negotiations are underway to complete the Group. Nigel Farage (UKIP) has already announced that he will not ally with the Front National. Two Groups may well therefore co-exist: the EFD, which already exists, comprising UKIP, perhaps joined by the Italian 5 star movement.

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Timetable

Next steps

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Date Event4 June Election of the President and Vice-President of the EPP group

17-19 June Election of the President and Vice-Presidents of the S&D and ALDE group

23 June Deadline to form political groups

26-27 June Member states to formally put forward their candidate for Commission President at the June European Council

1-3 July Plenary session of the newly constituted European Parliament

3-4 July Formal nomination of the President of the European Commission by the European Council

7-10 July Formation of the parliamentary committees

14-17 July Election of the President of the European Commission during the plenary session

18 July to 15 August

The President of the European Commission will nominate the College of Commissioners on the basis of the choice made by each Member States

September Public Hearing of the Commissioner candidates by Parliamentary committees.

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The definitive results are expected in the next couple of days. From 27 May the Political Groups will start the difficult and delicate process towards choosing a Commission President and from there the other principal posts of the European Institutions.

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Enjeux 2014