Engineering Sustainable Energy SystemsThe Green Islands case study

Carlos A. Santos SilvaMIT-Portugal Program / Sustainable Energy SystemsInstituto Superior Técnico

São Miguel, Azores

Lagoa Sete Cidades, São Miguel

São Miguel

Area 759 km2 (32%)

Population 150 000 (60%)

The energy system in São Miguel(… as perceived by the Azores local agents)

Fuel oil53%

Hydro5%

Geothermal41%

Electricity Production

Annual growth rate1995-2005 2005-2007

7% 4% São

Mig

uel

Energy Strategy for 2018

• Goals for all Azores– 75% of renewables on electricity production– 40% of renewables on primary energy (electrification of other sectors)

• Plan (for São Miguel)– 3MW Geothermal by 2010– 9MW Wind by 2011– 10MW Geothermal by 2013

• Questions– Another 10 MW Geothermal after 2013?– Storage system?– How to use biomass?– Is this enough? What else?

Green Islands Project

The energy system in São Miguel(… the real system in 2007)

47%

27%

Strategy for 2018

MIT PortugalLocal Agents

Green Islands Project

Engineering a Sustainable Energy System

– Technical dimension• Storage / Smart Grids/ Electric Vehicles / Biomass

– Economic dimension• EU or PPP / Energy markets

– Social dimension• Acceptance / Behavior Changes / Education / Collective welfare

– Critical Infrastructures• Energy /Transportation /Communication

– Energy and Sustainability• Safety /Security

– Fundamentals• Complexity, Uncertainty…

Tools for Energy Planning

Social

EconomicEnvironment(Technological)

Homer

DER-CAM

RETScreenTRNSYS

TIMESLEAP

ENPEP

MAED

MESSAGE

Green-XEPPA

Planning tools gaps

Hour Year

Region /Country

House /Neighborhood

Homer

TIMES

LEAP

DER-CAM

Second

Grid Analysis

Space

Time

Green-X

EPPA

Projections

Optimization

Methodology

New generation of planning tools

Social

EconomicEnvironmentExtended TIMES

Hour Year

Region /Country

House /Neighborhood

Second

Space

Time

Projections

Optimization

Methodology

TIMES

Model Calibration (2008)

Green Islands Case: TIMES-MARKAL to build scoping scenarios

• Business As Usual– 37 MW Geothermal: [ 24 + 3 + 10 ] (2013)– 5 MW Hydro– 9 MW Wind (2011)

• MPPRen (+ Renewables & Storage)– 47 MW Geothermal: [ 24 + 3 + 10 ] +10 (2013)– 9 MW Hydro [5+4]– 9 MW Wind (2011)– 10 MW Biomass (2013)– 15 MW Pump-Storage (2013)

• MPPRenDom (+ Household Efficiency)– Energy Efficiency Gains from New Appliances– Electricity Demand Growth 2%

• MPPRenAll (+ Lower demand growth)– Non-Electric/Non-Transportation Demand Growth 1%

• MPPRenAllEV (+ Introduction of Electric Vehicles)– 6% of Electric Vehicles in 2013, 30% in 2020

GW

h

Curr

ent

BAU

MPP

Ren

MPP

RenD

om

MPP

RenA

ll

MPP

RenA

llEV

BAU

MPP

Ren

MPP

RenD

om

MPP

RenA

ll

MPP

RenA

llEV

2007 2013 2018

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

BiomassWindHydroGeothermalFuel

Electricity Production Scenarios

Curr

ent

BAU

MPP

Ren

MPP

RenD

om

MPP

RenA

ll

MPP

RenA

llEV

BAU

MPP

Ren

MPP

RenD

om

MPP

RenA

ll

MPP

RenA

llEV

2007 2013 2018

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

BiomassWindHydroGeothermalFuel

Electricity Scenario for 2018

• Two critical ideas– Reduce energy demand (e.g. energy efficiency in buildings)– Introduce storage systems (e.g. pump-storage or EV)

Storage

Energy Demand

Primary Energy

Curr

ent

BAU

MPP

Ren

MPP

RenD

om

MPP

RenA

ll

MPP

RenA

llEV

BAU

MPP

Ren

MPP

RenD

om

MPP

RenA

ll

MPP

RenA

llEV

2007 2013 2018

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

RenewablesGasolineAsphaltButaneDieselFuel

• One critical idea:– Change transportation system (e.g. EV)

Conclusions

• Engineering a Sustainable Energy System requires– Research:

• Extend modeling and planning tools to include all dynamics– Implementation:

• Energy efficiency (e.g. reduce energy demand in buildings)• Change transportation paradigm (e.g. electrical vehicles)