17
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Equity Research April 23, 2020 BSE Sensex: 31863 ICICI Securities Limited is the author and distributor of this report Sector update Top picks Siemens (BUY) 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 (Rs) Engineering and Capital Goods Covid-19 to accelerate adoption of automated solutions Research Analysts: Renjith Sivaram [email protected] +91 22 6637 7340 Vipin Goel [email protected] +91 22 6637 7397 The impact of Covid-19 pandemic is expected to accelerate the adoption of automation and digitalisation solutions by domestic industry. This can act as a catalyst towards spending on factory automation and digital solutions. Given its presence across the whole automation and digitisation spectrum, we believe Siemens India will be a major beneficiary of the opportunity. Though there can be near-term challenges due to the current pandemic, we believe, long-term opportunities in automation and digitalisation will open up new vistas for growth. We maintain Siemens as our top pick in the sector as a play on domestic automation opportunities. Shift towards more automation and digitalisation solutions: The impact of Covid-19 pandemic will force companies to minimise human contact as much as possible. There will be a renewed vigour towards spending on factory automation by domestic companies and will usher in new opportunities for companies that provide such solutions. This, we believe, will be beneficial for companies like Siemens, ABB and Honeywell Automation. Investment towards mechanisation of projects: Given the recent stress in project execution due to uncertainty regarding migrant labour, we believe, companies will invest more in project automation equipment like drone, large machines with higher mechanisation etc. Siemens, ABB, Cummins will be the indirect beneficiaries due to the same. Home and office automation solutions to gain prominence: Having gone through a phase of quarantine, companies as well as homes will have a propensity to invest more towards automation solutions. This can be as trivial as an Amazon Alexa-controlled home automation to setting up of cloud-based office data suites with encrypted controls for official work. Data centres and cloud- based IoT solutions can witness strong traction in terms of demand. Domestic penetration is still at nascent levels: Globally, industrial automation market has doubled to US$68bn in the last five years at 16% CAGR. Malaysia and China are among the fastest growing nations, while Germany and Japan have reached maturity. India is significantly underpenetrated. The only way for domestic market to become globally competitive in terms of quality, productivity and consistency is through rapid adoption of latest technology. Hence, we believe, the sector is set to witness strong winds of change. Robotic usage penetration in India at entry level versus China As per the International Federation of Robotics (IFR) data, annual sales of robots stood at US$16.5bn in 2018, with a volume of 422,000 units. China is the largest market with 36% of total installations accounting for 154,000 units. Around 74% of global installations in 2018 were accounted by China, Japan, Korea, US and Germany, while India’s installation is ~4,000 units per annum. Hence, the only way the domestic market can keep pace with global technology is through increased adaptation of robotics and automation. INDIA

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Page 1: Engineering and Capital Goods - InvestmentGuruIndiavid.investmentguruindia.com/report/2020/April/Capital_Goods_update_23Apr20 (1...Indian market is currently ~4,000 units of robots

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Equity Research April 23, 2020

BSE Sensex: 31863

ICICI Securities Limited is the author and distributor of this report

Sector update

Top picks

Siemens (BUY)

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Ap

r-17

Oct-

17

Ap

r-18

Oct-

18

Ap

r-19

Oct-

19

Ap

r-20

(Rs)

Engineering and Capital Goods

Covid-19 to accelerate adoption of automated solutions

Research Analysts:

Renjith Sivaram [email protected] +91 22 6637 7340

Vipin Goel [email protected] +91 22 6637 7397

The impact of Covid-19 pandemic is expected to accelerate the adoption of

automation and digitalisation solutions by domestic industry. This can act as a

catalyst towards spending on factory automation and digital solutions. Given

its presence across the whole automation and digitisation spectrum, we

believe Siemens India will be a major beneficiary of the opportunity. Though

there can be near-term challenges due to the current pandemic, we believe,

long-term opportunities in automation and digitalisation will open up new

vistas for growth. We maintain Siemens as our top pick in the sector as a play

on domestic automation opportunities.

Shift towards more automation and digitalisation solutions: The impact of

Covid-19 pandemic will force companies to minimise human contact as much as

possible. There will be a renewed vigour towards spending on factory

automation by domestic companies and will usher in new opportunities for

companies that provide such solutions. This, we believe, will be beneficial for

companies like Siemens, ABB and Honeywell Automation.

Investment towards mechanisation of projects: Given the recent stress in

project execution due to uncertainty regarding migrant labour, we believe,

companies will invest more in project automation equipment like drone, large

machines with higher mechanisation etc. Siemens, ABB, Cummins will be the

indirect beneficiaries due to the same.

Home and office automation solutions to gain prominence: Having gone

through a phase of quarantine, companies as well as homes will have a

propensity to invest more towards automation solutions. This can be as trivial as

an Amazon Alexa-controlled home automation to setting up of cloud-based office

data suites with encrypted controls for official work. Data centres and cloud-

based IoT solutions can witness strong traction in terms of demand.

Domestic penetration is still at nascent levels: Globally, industrial automation

market has doubled to US$68bn in the last five years at 16% CAGR. Malaysia

and China are among the fastest growing nations, while Germany and Japan

have reached maturity. India is significantly underpenetrated. The only way for

domestic market to become globally competitive in terms of quality, productivity

and consistency is through rapid adoption of latest technology. Hence, we

believe, the sector is set to witness strong winds of change.

Robotic usage penetration in India at entry level versus China – As per the

International Federation of Robotics (IFR) data, annual sales of robots stood at

US$16.5bn in 2018, with a volume of 422,000 units. China is the largest market

with 36% of total installations accounting for 154,000 units. Around 74% of

global installations in 2018 were accounted by China, Japan, Korea, US and

Germany, while India’s installation is ~4,000 units per annum. Hence, the only

way the domestic market can keep pace with global technology is through

increased adaptation of robotics and automation.

INDIA

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2

Industrial automation

Industrial automation encompasses several classes of equipment across many

industries. Products are oriented along three categories:

Process – Continuous process control applications as in chemical, oil and gas,

power generation and waste water management etc.

Discrete – Job work and batch production applications as in automotive industry,

electronics, fabricated metals, plastics and packaging etc.

Power transmission and distribution control system works in multiple layers of

sensors from SCADA to ERP.

Industrial automation products largely include programmable logic controllers-human

machine interface (PLC-HMI), supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA),

distributed control system (DCS), and electrical drives (AC, DC and servo drives)

among others.

Key players in domestic automation market are

Process automation – Emerson, Honeywell Automation India, ABB India, Endress + Hauser, Yokogawa, Siemens India.

Discrete automation – Siemens India, Rockwell Automation, B&R Automation

(unlisted subsidiary of ABB global), Beckhoff, Mitsubishi Electric.

Table 1: Industry classification

Process Industries Hybrid Industries Discrete Industries

Oil and Gas Glass Automotive Chemicals Pharma Electronics Water and wastewater Food and Beverages Packaging machinery Cement Pulp & Paper Machine building Metals and Mining Fiber Additive manufacturing Power Generation Tire Robotics Refineries Batteries Machine tools Material handling equipment Aerospace Textile machinery

Source: I-Sec research

Table 2: Industrial automation equipment

Motor & Motor Automation Equipment Control Equipment

Motors & Generators Discrete Controllers & Visualization

Process Control

Fractional AC Motors Computer Numerical Controllers Distributed Controller Fractional Brushed DC Motors I/O Modules Process & Temperature Controllers Fractional Brushless DC Motors PLCs Process Instrumentation Devices Integral AC Motors (LV) Embedded Computer Process Safety Equipment Integral DC Motors (LV) Boards, Modules & Systems Low power Generators Networking Infrastructure Devices Switchgear Medium power Generators Industrial PCs MCB & RCDs High Power Generators Operator Terminals Electro-Mechanical Relays Medium Voltage Motors Position Control Hardware Solid State Relays Servo Motors Remote Terminal Units Electronic Control Relays Stepper DC Motors Machine Vision Hardware Industrial Pushbuttons Discrete Safety Equipment Air Circuit Breakers & Motor Controls Moulded Case Circuit Breakers AC Drives (LV) Brushed DC Drives Brushless DC Drives Medium Voltage Drives Servo Drives Stepper DC Drives Soft Starters & MCCs

Source: IHS Markit, I-Sec research

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Process automation

Process automation reduces the need for plant operators to physically monitor

performance values and the quality of outputs to determine the best settings on

which the production equipment can run.

Process automation involves using sensors, actuators, computer technology and

software engineering to help power plants and factories in oil & gas, chemicals,

paper, mining and cement operate more efficiently and safely.

Sensors are installed around the plant that collect data on variables such as

temperatures, pressures, flows, liquid analysis and gas analysis.

Chart 1: Yokogawa – Flow meter and vibration sensor

Chart 2: F&B sensor of Endress & Hauser

Chart 3: O&G sensors by Endress & Hauser

Source: Automation expo, I-Sec research

The information is stored and analysed and the entire plant or each piece of

production equipment can be monitored from a control room. A computer program

uses measurements to show not only how the plant is working but to simulate

different operating modes and find the optimal strategy for the plant.

The controls are done using PLC, SCADA or DCS and communication is done

either through wire or using wireless.

PLM software is used to automate the management of product-related data and

integrate the data with other business processes such as enterprise resource

planning (ERP) and manufacturing execution system (MES)

Indian public sector companies like to store data in their own servers rather than a

cloud given data protection-related risks.

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Discrete automation

Discrete automation is used for the process in which the finished component can be

measured and each process creates a quantifiable or countable part. It focuses on

assembling high-quality engineered components (sub-assemblies) into a more-

efficient final product. Materials are often moved manually in such a ‘high touch’ labour

environment. The main task in a continuous plant is process regulation, while for

discrete plants the main task is represented by plant command.

At the control level, different types of controllers/supervisors (such as IPCs or PLCs)

are connected together and the underlying sensor level provides the link with

individual devices.

As per independent analysis of certain consultants, the adaptation of smart factory in

the domestic market has increased from 48% in 2018 to 68% in 2019.

Chart 4: Discrete automation process to create a cellphone

Source: I-Sec research

Chart 5: Discrete factory automation using Siemens components and mindsphere by Addverb Technologies

Chart 6: Discrete factory automation employing Siemens solutions conceptualised by Addverb Technologies used in logistics

Source: Elecrama, I-Sec research

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Chart 7: Home/Factory automation flow chart of Siemens

Source: Elecrama, I-Sec research

Chart 8: B&R factory automation chart Chart 9: B&R factory automation products

Source: Automation expo, I-Sec research

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6

Digital twin

Digital twin is the precise virtual model of a product or a production plant. It displays

their development throughout the entire lifecycle and allows operators to predict

behaviour, optimise performance and implement insights from previous design and

production experiences.

Chart 10: Real machine setup replicated on a virtual model using digital twin

Source: I-Sec research

Digital twin application based on Siemens product portfolio

a. Planning the production – With Line Designer, the entire production line can

be planned by selecting the production equipment like robots and conveyor

belts. Plant simulation enables to simulate and optimise material and energy

flows, while Tecnomatix Process Simulate allows simulating and optimising

of production process. With SIMOVE automatic guided vehicle (AGVs) can be

managed in order to set up a modular and more flexible production.

b. Validating and executing production – To engineer the production, PLC

code can be generated and transferred directly from the digital twin to the

Totally Integrated Automation (TIA) Portal. The overall result can then be

validated holistically by virtual commissioning in Tecnomatix Process Simulate.

c. Testing and commencing production – The virtual SIMATIC controller

PLCSIM Advanced can be utilised to test the production cell or machine in a

completely virtual environment. The real production can then be commenced

based on the observations.

Chart 11: Digital twin model-based approach by Siemens

Source: Siemens, I-Sec research

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Chart 12: Simulation using digital twin reduces time to market for a project

Source: B&R, I-Sec research

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Robotics

Indian market is currently ~4,000 units of robots per annum, of this, ~20% is the

market share of ABB India. ABB India robots, that are used, are imported from their

Chinese factory.

~50% of the demand for robots in the domestic market is driven by the auto sector.

The major players in domestic market are ABB India, Kuka, Fanuc, Brabo (a Tata

company).

Impact from Covid-19 pandemic requires companies to minimise human contact which

means improving the collaboration between man and machine by means of increasing

the flexibility of people and automation systems. Hence, we foresee an increased

demand for collaborative robots which shares the same work space with human, either

continuously or intermittently. While this unlocks new applications, balancing safety

with the need for productivity becomes crucial.

Different robots and safety strategy for different collaborative

application needs

Robots with low degree of collaboration (Co-existence) – Fenceless robot, no

workspace sharing

Robots with medium degree of collaboration (Intermittent Collaboration) –

Infrequent sharing of workspace

Robots with high degree of collaboration (Cooperation) – Continuous sharing of

workspace

Chart 13: Safety strategy based on robot type

Source: ABB, I-Sec research

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Chart 14: Industrial robot fulfilling one or more below safety concepts can be a collaborative robot

Source: ABB, I-Sec research

Chart 15: Brabo - Tata company (Made in India robot)

Chart 16: KEBA controllers used in Brabo

Chart 17: ABB force limiting robot – YuMi IRB14050

Source: Automation expo, company data, I-Sec research

Tata, in association with Melior Motion for Gears and Keba (German company) for controllers, is the first Indian company to manufacture robots. They target MSME market by supplying robots that are cost-competitive. With the adaptation of robotics by suppliers, the quality of automobiles manufactured by Tata Motors has improved.

Siemens India is not present in the manufacturing of robots; however, it is present in the supply of servo motors, drives and controllers. Hence, Siemens’ robotics solutions are agnostic to robot manufacturers.

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Penetration of drives to improve energy efficiency

Drives is another segment of the market witnessing strong penetration not only in the new motor, pump and fan installations, but also in older products. Energy consumption is expected to reduce by ~25% with the usage of drives as most of the power consumption in any factory is done by utilities like fans, motors, pumps, compressors etc. ABB, Siemens and Danfoss dominate the domestic drives market.

Chart 18: Siemens compact drive with remote monitoring using cloud-based IoT

Chart 19: The most compact IGBT based MV driver by Siemens (reduces space by 20-25% vs competitors)

Source: Elecrama, I-Sec research Chart 20: Display of LV drives by Siemens at Elecrama Jan’2020

Source: Elecrama, I-Sec research

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Building automation

Building automation largely includes electronic security & safety, heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) and lighting control equipment, home comfort solutions and fire safety. The market can be segmented in four categories: i) Building automation & control system (BACS), ii) heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC), iii) lighting control solutions and iv) home control solutions.

A building automation & control system (BACS) plays a vital role in integrated building planning. The system provides energy savings, greater comfort, safety and better operational efficiency. In India, the rising concern for greenhouse gases along with rapidly increasing power demand-supply gap are contributing to the growing adoption of the automation & control systems in the buildings. The demand for BACS is majorly driven by commercial building segment, due to increasing number of shopping malls, office buildings, educational institutes, hotels, hospitals, etc. The market is further supported by mandatory regulation of energy efficiency in commercial buildings in cities such as Delhi. The policy & regulatory support such as building codes, incentive schemes and labeling schemes such as LEED rating scheme and BEE star rating scheme are expected to continue driving the BACS market over the next five years. In HVAC building automation & control systems market, thermostat, zone and climate control, sensors and keypads are spurring the demand for HVAC building automation systems, while emerging carbon dioxide & combine sensors segment is projected to further boost market growth over the next five years. The lighting control building automation & control systems market in India is witnessing increasing demand for relay systems, controllable breakers, dimming systems, switching solutions and sensors. Key players in domestic automation market are – Siemens India, Honeywell Automation India, Johnson Controls, Carrier.

Chart 21: Yokogawa’s thermal sensors used in building automation

Source: Elecrama, I-Sec research

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Siemens (BUY – TP: Rs1,383)

Siemens is the global leader in digitalisation and automation segment. Leveraging on

the global knowledge pool, the customisation towards domestic needs will place

Siemens India as a key player in the domestic automation market. The outlook on

large orders and private capex remains challenging in the near term, and we believe

Siemens will be able to tide over with its focus on short cycle and digitisation orders.

We marginally raise FY21E earnings by 2.6% and maintain BUY with a revised target

price of Rs1,383 (previously: Rs1,343).

We value the company’s core earnings at 50x FY21E P/E, assume 20x FY21E

multiple for the C&S Electric business, and add back the cash. This works out to an

SoTP-based target price of Rs1,383. The stock currently trades at 36.4x FY21E P/E,

lower than (-1) standard deviation, providing comfort from a valuation perspective.

Given the benign valuation, we maintain BUY with a target price of Rs1,383. Focus on

margins, predictable cashflows from digitisation and short-cycle demand is expected

to support medium- to long-term growth.

Siemens has provided clarity regarding the restructuring of its mobility and mechanical

drives business: (i) Currently, it will not sell its mobility business and the wholly-owned

subsidiary, Siemens Rail Automation Private Limited, to Siemens AG or its global

subsidiary; (ii) currently, the company has also withheld the decision to sell its

mechanical drives business (included in POC) to Siemens AG or its global

subsidiaries. Management will also try not to sever its gas & power segment mirroring

what the parent is doing as they are relatively self-sustaining in terms of operations.

Hence, we don’t foresee any near- to medium-term risks from restructuring.

Chart 22: One-year forward P/E chart

50

62

39

30

40

50

60

70

80

Ap

r-1

4

Jul-1

4

Nov-1

4

Ma

r-15

Jun

-15

Oct-

15

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

y-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Dec-1

6

Ap

r-1

7

Au

g-1

7

Nov-1

7

Mar-

18

Jul-1

8

Oct-

18

Fe

b-1

9

Jun

-19

Se

p-1

9

Jan

-20

1-yr fwd. P/E (x) Mean +1 S.D. -1 S.D.

Source: I-Sec research

Table 3: Change in estimates (consolidated)

(Rs mn)

Rs mn

FY20E FY21E

Earlier Revised YoY (%) Earlier Revised YoY (%)

Revenue 1,19,227 1,19,227 0.0 1,24,743 1,28,943 3.4 EBIDTA 12,300 12,300 0.0 13,983 14,385 2.9 PAT 10,068 10,068 0.0 11,445 11,746 2.6

Source: I-Sec research

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Table 4: Valuation summary

FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

PAT 7,079 8,939 10,869 10,068 11,746 Tax rate 32.1 32.0 33.8 25.2 25.2 Other income 2,547 2,800 3,946 3,791 4,170 Operating PAT 5,349 7,035 8,256 7,233 8,627

P/E (x)

50 Value

4,31,337

Cash & Cash Equivalent (excl DDT)

42,365 Gross value

4,73,702

Value per share

1,330 C&S electric PAT

948

P/E (x)

20 Value

18,963

Value per share (Rs) 53 Total Value per share (Rs)

1,383

Source: I-Sec research

Table 5: Segment-wise revenue estimates

September ending (Rs mn) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Gas and Power 48,258 50,559 41,964 44,062 YoY Growth (%)

4.8 -17.0 5.0

Smart Infrastructure 37,962 37,950 34,155 37,571 YoY Growth (%)

-0.0 -10.0 10.0

Mobility 9,814 11,203 10,643 11,175 YoY Growth (%)

14.2 -5.0 5.0

Digital Industries 23,699 26,874 24,187 27,089 YoY Growth (%)

13.4 -10.0 12.0

Portfolio of Companies 9,335 12,042 9,634 10,597 YoY Growth (%)

29.0 -20.0 10.0

Others 1,336 1,191 1,203 1,215 YoY Growth (%)

-10.9 1.0 1.0

Total Segmental 1,30,404 1,39,819 1,21,785 1,31,709 YoY Growth (%)

7.2 -12.9 8.1

Less : Inter segment revenue 3,153 2,981 2,557 2,766 as % of total Segmental 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.1

Total Income from operations 1,27,251 1,36,838 1,19,227 1,28,943 YoY Growth (%)

7.5 -12.9 8.1

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Table 6: Segment-wise order intake

(Rs mn) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Gas and Power 42,200 45,100 31,570 37,884 YoY Growth (%)

6.9 -30.0 20.0

Smart Infrastructure 36,500 39,200 23,520 30,576 YoY Growth (%)

7.4 -40.0 30.0

Mobility 14,900 8,600 5,160 6,863 YoY Growth (%)

-42.3 -40.0 33.0

Digital Industries 24,000 26,500 23,850 31,005 YoY Growth (%)

10.4 -10.0 30.0

Portfolio of Companies 9,900 13,000 10,400 13,000 YoY Growth (%)

31.3 -20.0 25.0

Total Order Intake 1,27,500 1,32,400 94,500 1,19,328 YoY Growth (%)

3.8 -28.6 26.3

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

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Table 7: Division wise portfolio

GP – Gas & Power (36% of Revenue) SI - Smart Infrastructure (27% of Revenue)

Power Generation Operations Regional Solutions & Services Service & Digital Digital Grid Power Generation Distribution Systems Transmission Medium Voltage & Systems, Low Voltage Products EPC Projects Control Products HV Products Building Products DI - Digital Industries (19% of Revenue) POC - Portfolio of Companies (9% of Revenue)

Factory Automation Mechanical Drives Process Automation Large Drives Customer Services Process Solutions Motion Control

MO – Mobility (8% of Revenue)

Mobility Management Turnkey Projects & Electrification Rolling Stocks Customer Services

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Table 8: Siemens’ automation product portfolio

Application Product type Product name

Automation Systems

Industrial Automation Systems SIMATIC

Motion control system SIMOTION

System cabling for control cabinet - SIMATIC TOP connect

CNC automation system SINUMERIK ONE

Industrial identification Systems

RFID SIMATIC RF

Optical identification SIMATIC MV

Industrial Communication

Ethernet, IoT gateways, routers, data storage media,

AS-interface, Communications processors

SCALANCE, SIMATIC series,

Networking software SINEMA, SOFTNET, SINEC

Industrial Controls

Circuit breakers, starters, Load feeders, contractors

and assemblies, relays, switching devices,

Signalling lamps

SIRIUS series

Industrial Software

Automation Software TIA portal, SIMATIC Mindapps, SCADA

software

PLM NX, Temcentre, Simcenter, Opcenter,

Tecnomatix

Manufacturing Operations Management (MOM) Opcenter

Simulation platform SIMIT

Plant Engineering software COSMOS

Others PlantSight, XHQ, CNC Shopfloor mgmt.

s/w

Operator Control and Monitoring

Systems

Human machine interface (HMI) software SIMATIC HMI, SIMATIC WinCC

PC-based automation

Rack PCs, BOX PCs, Panel PCs, Tablet PCs,

Industrial IoT Gateway, Software Controllers

SIMATIC series

Power supplies

Power supply, UPS modules, DC/DC convertors SITOP

Process Instrumentation

Sensors, transmitters, flow systems, verificators,

load cells, level switches, Pressure Measurement,

Temperature Measurement, Flow Measurement,

Level Measurement, Positioners, Weight

Measurement

SITRAN, SIPART, PIA Life Cycle Portal

Process Control System

Distributed Control System SIMATIC PCS 7, SIMATIC PCS neo

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

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Chart 23: Revenue share of digital industries to increase from 19% in FY19 to 21% in FY21E

Chart 24: Segment wise order intake (Rs bn)

37.0 36.2 34.5 33.5

29.1 27.1 28.0 28.5

7.5 8.0 8.7 8.5

18.2 19.2 19.9 20.6

7.2 8.6 7.9 8.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

PoC DI Mobility SI GP

42.2 45.131.6 37.9

36.539.2

23.5

30.6

14.9 8.6

5.2

6.9

24.0 26.5

23.9

31.0

9.9 13.0

10.4

13.0

127.4132.4

94.5

119.3

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

PoC DI Mobility SI GP

Note: Gas and Power – GP, Smart Infrastructure – SI, Digital Industries – DI, Portfolio of Companies – PoC Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Chart 25: Momentum from base orders to support overall orderbook

Chart 26: Revenue and order intake projection for digital industries segment

103 101 107 136 127 132 95 119

-5.8-1.8

5.4

27.1

-6.1

3.9

-28.6

26.3

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

FY

14

FY

15

FY

16

FY

17

FY

18

FY

19

FY

20E

FY

21E

(%)

(Rs b

n)

Order intake (Rs bn) - LHS Growth YoY (%) - RHS

24 27 24 2724 27 24 31

6.46.1

6.5

8.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

(%)

(Rs b

n)

Revenue - LHS Order Intake - LHS

EBIT Margin (%) - RHS

Chart 27: Revenues supported by base order execution

Chart 28: EBITDA margin to improve gradually

105 103 108 111 123 133 119 129

-6.1

-1.7

5.1

2.3

11.1

8.4

-10.5

8.1

(15)

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

FY

14

FY

15

FY

16

FY

17

FY

18

FY

19

FY

20E

FY

21E

(%)

(Rs b

n)

Revenues (LHS) Growth YoY (%) - RHS

5.9 9.7 10.2 10.5 13.2 14.8 12.3 14.4

5.6

9.3 9.4 9.3

10.310.8

10.311.2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

FY

14

FY

15

FY

16

FY

17

FY

18

FY

19

FY

20E

FY

21E

(%)

(Rs b

n)

EBITDA (LHS) EBITDA Margin (%) - RHS

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

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Financial summary

Table 9: Profit & loss statement

(Rs mn, year ending Sep 30)

FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Total Income 1,27,251 1,36,838 1,19,227 1,28,943 Operating Expenses 1,14,090 1,22,081 1,06,927 1,14,557 EBITDA 13,161 14,757 12,300 14,385 % margins 10.3 10.8 10.3 11.2 Depreciation & Amortisation 1,967 2,173 2,510 2,752 EBIT 11,194 12,584 9,790 11,633 Gross Interest 82 114 120 100 Other Income 2,800 3,946 3,791 4,170 PBT before exceptionals 13,912 16,416 13,460 15,703 Add: Extraordinaries/Exceptionals - - - - Add: Share in associates - - - - PBT 13,912 16,416 13,460 15,703 Less: Taxes 4,973 5,547 3,392 3,957 Less: Minority Interests - - - - Net Income (Reported) 8,939 10,869 10,068 11,746 Adjusted Net Income 8,939 10,869 10,068 11,746

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Table 10: Balance sheet

(Rs mn, year ending Sep 30)

FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Assets Total Current Assets 1,10,744 1,24,089 1,27,352 1,19,378 of which cash & cash eqv. 36,457 48,913 48,956 42,365 Total Current Liabilities & Provisions 59,438 61,668 58,241 63,426 Net Current Assets 14,849 13,508 20,156 13,586 Investments 1,042 1 1 20,001 Other Non-Current Assets 17,610 15,528 14,169 15,128 Net Fixed Assets 13,096 12,486 12,723 12,171 Goodwill - - - - Total Assets 83,054 90,436 96,005 1,03,251 Liabilities Borrowings - - - - Deferred Tax Liability - - - - Minority Interest - - - - Equity Share Capital 712 712 712 712 Face Value per share (Rs) 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 Reserves & Surplus 82,342 89,724 95,293 1,02,539 Net Worth 83,054 90,436 96,005 1,03,251 Total Liabilities 83,054 90,436 96,005 1,03,251

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Table 11: Cashflow statement

(Rs mn, year ending Sep 30)

FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Operating Cashflow 7,965 9,465 8,908 10,428 Working Capital Changes (7,274) 983 (6,648) 6,569 Capital Commitments (1,368) (1,563) (2,747) (2,200) Free Cashflow (677) 8,885 (487) 14,797 Cashflow from Investing Activities (144) 4,802 5,149 (16,789) Issue of Share Capital - - - - Buyback of shares - - - - Inc (Dec) in Borrowings - - - - Interest paid (82) (114) (120) (100) Dividend paid (2,493) (2,493) (3,739) (3,739) Extraordinary Items/Others (860) 1,376 (760) (760) Chg. in Cash & Bank balance (4,256) 12,456 43 (6,591)

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Table 12: Key ratios

(Year ending Sep 30)

FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Per Share Data (in Rs.) Diluted adjusted EPS 25.1 30.5 28.3 33.0 Recurring Cash EPS 30.6 36.6 35.3 40.7 Dividend per share (DPS) 7.0 7.0 10.5 10.5 Book Value per share (BV) 233.2 253.9 269.6 289.9 Growth Ratios (%) Operating Income 12.1 7.5 (12.9) 8.1 EBITDA 25.2 12.1 (16.6) 17.0 Recurring Net Income 26.3 21.6 (7.4) 16.7 Diluted adjusted EPS 26.3 21.6 (7.4) 16.7 Diluted Recurring CEPS 20.6 19.6 (3.6) 15.3 Valuation Ratios P/E 47.8 39.3 42.4 36.4 P/CEPS 39.2 32.8 34.0 29.5 P/BV 5.1 4.7 4.5 4.1 EV / EBITDA 29.7 25.6 30.8 26.8 EV / Operating Income 3.2 2.8 3.2 3.0 EV / Operating FCF (pre -Capex) 926.3 30.8 167.4 22.6 Operating Ratios Raw Material/Sales (%) 67.5 68.1 68.0 68.0 SG&A/Sales (%) 10.8 9.4 8.7 8.2 Other Income / PBT (%) 20.1 24.0 28.2 26.6 Effective Tax Rate (%) 35.7 33.8 25.2 25.2 NWC / Total Assets (%) 12.4 10.9 15.1 10.0 Inventory Turnover (days) 32.7 29.2 40.0 38.0 Receivables (days) 104.7 101.6 120.0 115.0 Payables (days) 96.9 98.3 94.8 99.1 Net D/E Ratio (x) (0.4) (0.5) (0.5) (0.4) Return/Profitability Ratios (%) Recurring Net Income Margins 7.0 7.9 8.4 9.1 RoCE 11.2 12.6 10.9 11.9 RoNW 11.2 12.5 10.8 11.8 Dividend Payout Ratio 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 Dividend Yield (%) 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 EBITDA Margins 10.3 10.8 10.3 11.2

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

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