Energy  outlook  and  opportuni1es  in  I.R.IRAN        By:                                          2  June  2016    

Mohsen Pakparvar/Dr. Asali / Dr Modir (OPEC division in ministry of Petroleum) Senior  Expert  Head  of  Energy  &  Interna0onal  Economics  studies  group    Ins1tute  for  Poli1cal  and  Interna1onal  Studies  (IPIS)  Ministry  of  foreign  affairs  Islamic  Republic  of  IRAN  E-­‐mail:  pakparvar@yahoo.com  

Investment  in  energy  supply

OIL  &  Gas  resources  developed  to  2035  Cost  of  produc@on  

IKCO  Vs.  ISAIPA  Group

New  Policies  on  Oil  and  Gas  Sector

Content

Oil  &  gas  price  decline  and  its  effect

Oil  and  Gas  outlook

EU  scenarios  for  secure  Energy

Cumulative global energy supply investment by type in the New Policies Scenario, 2014-2035

Cumulative investment in energy supply and energy efficiency in the 450 Scenario, 2014-2035 ($2012 billion)

Evolution of global average annual energy investment in the New Policies Scenario ($2012 billion)

مديريت كل اوپك و روابط با مجامع انرژي 5

Source  :  IEA  

Global investment in fossil fuel supply

Change in average annual upstream oil and gas investment by region in the New Policies Scenario

Breakdown of cumulative world upstream investment by resource type in the New Policies Scenario, 2014-2035

Oil resources developed to 2035 in the New Policies Scenario

Gas resources developed to 2035 in the New Policies Scenario

The cost of producing a barrel in oil-producing countries

مديريت كل اوپك و روابط با مجامع انرژي 11

Source:  Rystad  Energy  

The cost of producing a barrel in oil-producing countries

مديريت كل اوپك و روابط با مجامع انرژي 12

Source:  Rystad  Energy  

Estimated oil development and production costs

مديريت كل اوپك و روابط با مجامع انرژي 13Source  :  IEA  

Global exploration & production spending

مديريت كل اوپك و روابط با مجامع انرژي 14

Source:  OPEC  

Projects Deferred Due to Fall in Oil Price

مديريت كل اوپك و روابط با مجامع انرژي 15Source  :  Rystad  Energy  

Projects Deferred for Other Political/Technical Reasons

مديريت كل اوپك و روابط با مجامع انرژي 16

Source  :  Rystad  Energy  

General Policies of the Resilient Economy: New Policies on Oil and Gas Sector

•  Increasing  the  country’s  oil  &  gas  strategic   reserves  in  order  to  influence  the  global  oil  &  gas  markets;    

• Suppor1ng   private   companies   for   investment   in  explora1on   (not   ownership),   exploi1ng   and  developing   the   country’s   oil   &   gas   fields   especially  the  joint  fields;  

New Policies on Oil and Gas Sector (Continued)

• Enhancing  recovery  factor  and  ul1mate  recovery  from  oil  &  gas  reservoirs;  

• Promo1ng  foreign  investment;  

• Revising  contractual  frameworks  to  allow  IOCs  to  par1cipate  in  all  phases  of  an  upstream  project,  including  produc1on;    

Oil and Gas Projects

29    Oil  Projects  

8  Onshore  

21  Offshore  

23    Gas  Projects  

8  Onshore  

15  Offshore  

Onshore  

3  Undeveloped  

5  Developed  

Offshore  

9  Undeveloped  

12  developed  

Onshore  

8  Undeveloped  

Offshore  

13  Undeveloped  

2  Undeveloped  

Source: MEES

Green-­‐Fields   Brown-­‐Fields  

Oil  Projects     Gas  Projects   Oil  Projects   Gas  Projects  

South  Azadegan   South  Pars  (phase  11)   Ab-­‐Teymour   Ilam  Refinery  

South  Pars  Oil  Layer   Farzad-­‐A   Ahwaz  -­‐Bangestan  

Changuleh   Balal     Mansuri-­‐Bangestan  

Darquain  -­‐3rd  Phase   Kish   Foroozan  

Golshan  &  Ferdowsi   North  Pars   Soroosh  

Jufair  ,  Sepehr,  Susangerd,  Sohrab,  Bande-­‐  karkheh  ,  Arvand  

Golshan  &  Ferdowsi   Norooz  

Khami  Fields   Dorood  

Sefied-­‐Baghoun  ,  Sefied-­‐Zokhour  and  Dey  

Salman  

Karun-­‐Bangetan  &  NGL-­‐1700  

Aban  ,  Paydar  ,  West  Paydar  ,  Danan,  Cheshmeh-­‐Khosh,  Dalpari  ,  Naf  Shahr,  Sumar,  Dehloran  Source: MEES

Oil and Gas Projects

Oil Production Outlook (2016-2020)

(Tbbl/d)   2015   2016   2020  Crude  Oil   2850   3860   4700  Condensate   560   680   1000  Total   3410   4540   5700  

Gas Production Outlook (2016-2020)

MCM/d   2015   2016   2020  Gas  produc1on   548   644   1000  Gas  processing  plant  

580   680   1100  

EU scenarios for Secure Energy

• Reduc@on  of  import  from  Russia  •  Expand  it’s  capacity  {more  Expensive)    • Using  of  other  transfer  energy  pipelines  (CIS  &  Qatar,..){not  fusible}  •   Import  of  Oil  &Gas  from  USA  (shale  oil  and  shale  gas,  at  the  moment  is  not  fusible)  

•  Increasing  of  LNG  import  (Australia  ,  Qatar  ,Africa  ,..)  need  more  investment  and  capacity  building  

•  Import  from  Iran,  more  reliable  and  Fusible  (Why)      All  right  reserved  for  IPIS,  for  more  informa0on  ask:  pakparvar@yahoo.com