Excerpt from:

ii - EXCERPT FROM ENERGY BALANCES OF OECD COUNTRIES (2015 edition)

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

The following analysis is an excerpt from the publication Energy Balances of OECD Countries (2015 edition).

Please note that we strongly advise users to read definitions, detailed methodology and country specific notes which can be found either in our publication or in the on-line data service (http://www.iea.org/statistics/topics/energybalances/).

Please address your inquiries to balances@iea.org.

Please note that all IEA data is subject to the following Terms and Conditions found on the IEAs website: http://www.iea.org/t&c/termsandconditions/

EXCERPT FROM ENERGY BALANCES OF OECD COUNTRIES (2015 edition) - iii

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

RECENT ENERGY TRENDS IN OECD

Key supply trends in 2014

In 20141, the OECD produced over 4 000 Mtoe for the first time since the International Energy Agency (IEA) was founded in 1974. Also exports were the highest ever recorded (1 695 Mtoe), while imports, 2.5% below the 2013 level, were the lowest since 2004. Consistently, the OECD total primary energy supply (TPES) provisionally decreased by 1% (Fig-ure 1).

Figure 1. OECD energy supply: 2013-2014 changes

*Total Primary Energy Supply

After the 2008-2009 economic downturn the OECD TPES tended to level out around levels comparable to those of the year 2000. This occurred after about 25 years of relatively steady growth (1.4% per year on average between 1984 and 2007). The 2014 TPES level, 5 238 Mtoe, was 4% lower than in 2004 but 16% higher than in 1990 and 55% higher than in 1971 (Figure 2).

1. All the energy supply data for 2014 described in this chapter are provisional.

The 2014 increase in production (3%), similar to that observed in 2013, was driven by significant increases in the United States (12% oil and 5% natural gas), in Canada (9% oil) and Australia (9% coal). The 2014 total net import level (1 324 Mtoe) was the lowest recorded in the OECD since 1995.

Figure 2. OECD energy supply 1971-2014

Mtoe

*Total Primary Energy Supply

With production increasing more than energy use, the level of self-sufficiency (defined as production/TPES) increased to 78% in 2014 in the region as a whole, which is comparable to the high levels observed around 1985, after the responses to the oil crises of the previous decade. In 2014, OECD Americas was very close to being self-sufficient (with a ratio of 99%, the highest level since the founding of the IEA) (Figure 3).

The overall drop in TPES in 2014 was driven by a 4% decrease in OECD Europe, where natural gas supply was about 10% lower than in 2013, generally due to a milder winter. For gas, reductions larger than 10% were observed in several major consuming countries,

-1.2%

3.0%

-2.5%

2.3%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

TPES* Production Imports Exports

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1971 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014

TPES* Production Net imports

iv - ENERGY BALANCES OF OECD COUNTRIES (2015 edition)

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

like Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and Belgium. In the Slovak Republic, the decrease was almost of one-third.

The reduction in Asia-Oceania was driven by a 3% decrease for Japan, where oil supply was about 5% (10 Mtoe) lower than in 2013, due to lower levels of electricity generation from oil. OECD Americas showed instead a 0.8% year-on-year increase (Figure 4).

Figure 4. OECD Total Primary Energy Supply: 2013-2014 change

More generally, in OECD, TPES for all fossil fuel decreased between 2013 and 2014, with gas reduced by 2.3%, coal by 1.9% and oil by 0.9% (Figure 5).

The reduction of fossil fuels was also pronounced in use for electricity generation (-160 TWh). For electricity, other sources, mainly solar PV, wind and

biofuels, increased by 8%, providing in 2014 over 1 000 TWh in OECD (Figure 6).

Figure 5. OECD Total Primary Energy Supply: 2013-2014 change by source

Mtoe

*Other includes hydro, geothermal, solar, wind, biofuels, waste as well as electricity and heat trade.

Figure 6. OECD electricity generation: 2013-2014 change

*Fossil includes coal, peat, oil shale, oil and gas. **Other includes geothermal, solar, wind, biofuels, waste and heat.

Non-hydro renewable electricity generation rose very fast over the last ten years, bringing its contribution to 9% of total generation in 2014, comparable with the 13% of conventional hydro. Total renewable sources (hydro and non-hydro) provisionally accounted for 2 355 TWh electricity generation across the OECD in 2014 (Figure 7).

In Europe alone, where development of renewable generation was more pronounced, wind accounted in 2014 for 7% of total generation, biofuels for 4% and solar PV for 3% (Figure 8).

-1.2%

0.8%

-1.4%

-4.0%-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

Total Americas AsiaOceania

Europe

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

Total Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Other*

-3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

Total Fossil* Nuclear Hydro Other**

Figure 3. OECD energy self-sufficiency 1971-2014

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

1971 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014

Total AmericasAsia Oceania Europe

EXCERPT FROM ENERGY BALANCES OF OECD COUNTRIES (2015 edition) - v

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

Figure 7. OECD renewable electricity generation 1971-2014

TWh

Figure 8. OECD electricity generation in 2014: shares of non-hydro renewable sources

*Other includes geothermal, solar thermal, tide and renewable municipal waste,

The share of renewable sources in electricity became larger than that of nuclear in 2011, with the gap con-tinuing to grow (Figure 9), partly as a consequence of the progressive closure of nuclear plants in Japan following the Fukushima events - nuclear generation in Japan was zero in 2014.

Figure 9. OECD electricity generation mix 1971-2014

Despite the growth in renewable, the share of electric-ity from fossil fuels has not varied much since 1985, after the major introduction of nuclear capacity. The electricity generation mix in the OECD in 2014 re-mained dominated by fossil fuels (59%), mainly coal and gas (Figure 10).

Figure 10. OECD electricity generation mix 2014

*Other includes geothermal, solar, wind, tide, biofuels, waste and heat.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1971 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014

Total Hydro Other renewables

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Total Americas Asia Oceania Europe

Wind Solar PV Biofuel Other*

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

1971 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014

Nuclear Total renewables Fossil

Coal 32%

Oil 3%

Gas 24%

Nuclear 19%

Hydro 13%

Other*9%

vi - EXCERPT FROM ENERGY BALANCES OF OECD COUNTRIES (2015 edition)

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

Key demand trends in 2013

In 2013, total final consumption in the OECD in-creased by 2%, although there were differences across the three areas (Figure 11). With Europe and Asia-Oceania on average changing little, the OECD growth was driven by the 3.5% growth of OECD Americas, occurring across the various end-use sectors: industry (6%), residential and services (4%), transport (2%).

Figure 11. OECD Total Final Consumption: 2012-2013 change

At the country-level, significant reductions were ob-served in Greece (-11%), Spain and Italy (-4%), all of which also experienced decreases in GDP levels in 2013.

Across the regions, 2013 TFC levels were broadly comparable to those of the early 2000s with the an-nual rate of growth declining (Figure 12).

Figure 12. OECD Total Final Consumption by region 1971-2013

Mtoe

Trends in TFC continued to show the general decou-pling of economic growth from energy consumption

observed over the years. In the OECD region, the final energy intensity (TFC/GDP) in 2013 was less than half that of 1971 (Figure 13).

Figure 13. Final energy intensity in OECD 1971-2013

1971=100

*GDP based on 2005 USD PPP.

Changes in final energy intensities are very different across countries, depending on changes in economic structures and on efficiency improvements. Sectoral energy intensities (defined based on the national GDP) also show decreasing trends and levels, although more detailed analysis at national level would be needed to assess reasons (Figure 14).

Figure 14. Sectoral energy intensities* in OECD 1971-2013

toe/million USD PPP

*Defined as sectoral final consumption/GDP PPP.

The structure of the OECD TFC shows that transport was the largest energy consuming sector in 2013, accounting for a third of final energy consumption, followed by industry with 31% (Figure 15). Such shares have reversed since 1971, when industry ac-counted for 41% of TFC and transport for 24%.

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

Total Americas Asia Oceania Europe

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1971 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Americas Asia Oceania Europe

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1971 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

GDP* Total Final Consumption (TFC) TFC/GDP*

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1971 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Industry Transport Residential Services

EXCERPT FROM ENERGY BALANCES OF OECD COUNTRIES (2015 edition) - vii

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

Of course, there are large variations across the region. The share of transport in 2013 was largest in very large countries, like the United States, Mexico and Australia, all with values around 40%; as well as in Luxembourg (57%), in this case due to price-driven fuel tourism. It was much lower in smaller countries with a strong industrial sector (for example Korea, Iceland, Finland, Belgium, the Netherlands).

Figure 15. OECD Total Final Consumption by sector 2013

*Other includes agriculture, forestry, fishing and non-specified.

Differences in economic structure affect the energy mix at national level, as different sectors tend to use fuels differently. In particular, transport almost com-pletely relies on oil, while residential and services in the OECD make large use of electricity and gas. Coal, heavily used for electricity generation, is used very little in TFC (Figure 16).

Figure 16. Total Final Consumption by sector: shares by energy source (2013)

*Other includes biofuels and waste, direct use of geothermal/solar thermal and heat.

The OECD in the world

In 2013, the OECD accounted for 18% of global pop-ulation, 47% of GDP and 40% of TPES (Figure 17). The OECD has progressively reduced its relative importance within the global context. These shares have significantly changed since 1971, when the re-gion accounted for 61% of the global energy supply.

Figure 17. OECD in the world, 2013

*GDP based on 2005 USD PPP.

However, with 4.2 toe per capita (compared to a world average of 1.9 toe per capita), the OECD is the most energy-intensive region, in terms of TPES/population. Several factors explain these high levels: an electrifica-tion rate of almost 100%, a high rate of cars per household, large industry and service sectors, high heating degree-days and a high GDP per capita.

Figure 18. OECD energy indicators by region, 2013

World average=1

*GDP based on 2005 USD PPP.

Industry31%

Transport33%

Residential20%

Services13%

Other*3%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Industry Transport Residential Services

Coal Oil Gas Electricity Other*

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Population GDP* TPES Production

OECD Non-OECD

0

1

2

3

Total Americas Asia Oceania Europe

TPES/capita TPES/GDP*

viii - EXCERPT FROM ENERGY BALANCES OF OECD COUNTRIES (2015 edition)

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

While OECD levels of energy/capita are generally larger than the world average by a factor of two, with some regional variations, OECD levels of energy intensity of the economy (TPES/GDP, based on PPP) tend to be slightly lower than the world average, pos-sibly reflecting a less energy-intensive economic structure and a generally more advanced development

in efficient use of energy, with high efficiency in transformation and some final consumption sectors (Figure 18).

For a more detailed assessment of global trends, data for non-OECD countries and regions are available in the publication and databases Energy Balances of non-OECD countries.

RECENT ENERGY TRENDS IN OECD