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Energy Sustainability
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Energy sustainability
What is sustainability?1
Replenishment at the rate of consumption
Environment friendly
Increasing energy demand2
Population growth
Income growth Increasing economic activity
Then what? Catch up with it??3
Issues4
Exhaustion of resources
Environmental Effects
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88% of world energy supply is
currently met by these fuels
12% of world energy supply is
currently met by these fuels
Fossil
Fuel
World
Reserves
Current
yearly world
consumption
Reserve life
at current
constant rate
Coal 540 2.4 225Oil 170 3.8 45
Gas 140 2.2 65
Total 850 8.4 100
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Supply Security
Energy Sources
Fossil Fuels(Oil, Gas and Coal)
Non-Fossil Fuels(Hydro, Nuclear, Solar and Wind)
Upside
Provide clean and sustainable
energy
IssueCurrently difficult to harness
large scale energy production
How much of Fossil Fuel do we have?
side - New E and P technologies, Enhanced Oil Recovery
Issues - Concentration of reserves in a particular region
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Environmental Effects
Emission of greenhouse gases causes global warming
The average earths surface temperature has increased by 0.6C
from 1800
By 2100, the temperature expected to go up by 1.4 to 5.8C.
Energy sector accounts for 75% of worlds carbon emissions
Steps Taken to control Climate Change
In 1988, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)was
formed. By 1992,
the panel created the United Nations Framework on Climate
Change
Kyoto Protocol entered into force in February 2005
Reduction of worldwide emission of GHG during 2008-2012 to bring
emission levels down by about
5% from 1990 levels
Post 2012 norms to be decided by discussion
Mechanisms evolved Clean Development Mechanism, Emission trading
and Joint Implementation
USA emits about 20% of the worlds total carbon emissions.
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Options & Solutions
Wishful thinking Total energy generation by renewable
Fact - By 2050, wind, solar and other renewable will provide 30%
of the worlds energy
Natural gas will play an increasingly important role toward a
low carbon future
Replacing coal with Natural gas in power plants can cut their
carbon emissions by 70%
Development of LNG industry and unconventional gas sources like
shale gas
Oil and coal are there to stay, but focus will be on improvement
in energyefficiency
Application of Carbon Capture and storage techniques
Increase in share of biofuels for transport . Currently make up
for 1% oftransportation fuels. Have the potential to go upto 10% by
2030
Increasing prevalence of electric cars
Coal and biomass gasification technologies to intensify in scale
Other upcoming sources like hydrogen technology etc
It takes a new technology 30 years to capture 1% of market share
of global energy
CDM funding to boost cleaner technologies by making them more
effective
Probable game changer Nuclear Energy
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Energy Mix 2030 (Statistical scenario)
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Oil27%
Natural
Gas
27%
Coal
27%
Nuclear
energy
7%
Hydro
electricity
7%
Renewables
5%
Other
19%
Global Energy mix - 2030
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Oil Natural Gas Coal
Nuclear Energy Hydroelectricity Renewables
Energy Demand Growth
Population expected to rise by 1.4 billionand income levels by
100% in next 20
years. Energy demand will increase from
11 btoe in 2010 to 16 btoe in 2030.
Global energy consumption to grow at an
average rate of 1.7% between 2010 and
2030. Growth to decelerate gently beyond
2020
Energy mix change
Fuel mix to change relatively slowly
Gas and non-fossil fuels gain share at the
expense of coal and oil
Fastest growing fuels renewable-growth
rate 8.2% p.a. Among fossil fuels, gas to
grow fastest at 2.1% p.a.
Carbon emissions to grow at 1.2% p.a,leading to emissions in
2030 at 27%
higher than 2010
Possible forecast changers
Future of economic growth, Policy action
on climate change, Chinas Pathway,
Energy security
Energy production by source (mtoe)
Total Energy Production 16 btoe
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Thank you
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