State Energy Policy in Russia Rational market environment Advanced standards and regulations Subsoil resources management Development of home energy markets Formation of rational energy balance Social policy in the energy sector Regional energy policy External energy policy Scientific, technical and innovative policy Strategic initiatives Energy security Energy efficiency of economy Economic efficiency of FEC Ecological security of FEC Management of state property 3
Energy Strategy of Russia for the Year 2030 Oil & Gas
Outlook Russia 2009 December, 8, 2009 Moscow Alexey Gromov PhD in
Economic Geography Deputy General Director Institute for Energy
Strategy Energy Strategy 2030 in the System of Documents of the
Strategic Development Program of long-term development of the fuel
and energy complex of the Russian Far East Conception of the long-
term development of the Russian Federation for the year 2020
Strategy of development of the power generation in the Russian Far
East Long-term forecast of the development of Russian economy for
the years Eastern Gas Program General scheme of allocation of power
generating facilities for the year 2020 General scheme of
development of the oil industry for the year 2030 General scheme of
development of the gas industry for the year 2030 Conception of the
state program for exploration and exploitation of the continental
shelf of the Russian Federation ES-2030 State program of energy
saving Investment programs of energy companies 2 State Energy
Policy in Russia Rational market environment Advanced standards and
regulations Subsoil resources management Development of home energy
markets Formation of rational energy balance Social policy in the
energy sector Regional energy policy External energy policy
Scientific, technical and innovative policy Strategic initiatives
Energy security Energy efficiency of economy Economic efficiency of
FEC Ecological security of FEC Management of state property 3 Aim
and Goals of the ES-2030 Efficiency of reproduction, extraction and
processing of energy resources Modernization and construction of
new energy infrastructure Energy and ecological efficiency of the
national economy and energy sector Stable institutional environment
in the energy sector Further integration of the Russian energy
sector into the global energy system Aim Goals Innovative and
efficient energy development Aim of the ES-2030 remains stable
despite consequences of the global economic crisis 4 Forecasted
Change of the Fuel and Energy Complexs Role in the Russian economy
Energy sector in GDP Energy sectors export in GDP Energy resources
in export Investment in energy sector in total investment 5
Expected Dynamics of Specific Energy Intensity of GDP and Domestic
Demand for Primary Energy Resources 6 Efficient relationship
between government and energy business Perfection of state price
(tariff) regulations in the sphere of natural monopolies Completion
of liberalization processes in power generation Development of the
insurance system of long-term investments risks Perfection of
license policy, elimination of inadequate administrative barriers
Stimulation of modernization and innovative development of FEC
Organization and stimulation of raising the level of stuffs skills
in FEC Optimization of tax burden Rationalization of amortization
policy Formation of united leasing companies Support of small and
medium-scale business in FEC First stage ( )Second stage ( )Third
stage (2030) Formation of stable institutional and legal
environment in FEC Financial stability of FEC and national economy
7 Economic efficiency of the energy sector Strategic aim:
Principles and mechanisms of realization Creation of favorable
economic environment System of prospective regulations, standards
and norms Support of strategic initiatives Strategic indicators of
economic (budget) efficiency of FEC First stage ( )Second stage (
)Third stage (2030) Decrease in emission of pollutants into
atmosphere and hydrosphere by the FEC, % by the level of 2005: no
less than 15%no less than 30%no less than 50% Volume of greenhouse
gases emission, % of 1990 level: no more than 83%no more than 92%no
more than 105% Rate of APG utilization (in 2005 75%): 95%
Forecasted dynamics of 2-emissions 8 Ecological security of the
energy sector Strategic indicators Development of oil and gas
complexes in Eastern regions of Russia Exploitation of the oil and
gas potential of the Northern regions of Russia and Arctic
off-shore Energy infrastructure: deevelopment and diversification
Non-fuel energy Energy saving Key initiatives in the Russian energy
sector 9 OIL NATURAL GAS Baltic Pipeline System - 2 50 mln. /y
North Stream 55 bln. cub. m/y South Stream 30 bln. cub. m/y Eastern
Siberia-Pacific Ocean 80 mln. /y Energy infrastructure: development
and diversification 1010 Development of oil and gas complexes in
Eastern regions of Russia Exploration and exploitation of oil and
gas resources in Eastern regions of Russia will help to satisfy the
domestic demand for energy resources and diversify directions of
export 1 Exploitation of Oil and Gas Resources of New Regions
(including Arctic offshore) Shift in oil extraction in Russia new
regions 12 Shift in natural gas extraction in Russia Non-fuel
energy Priority development: Nuclear Hydro Renewable POWER
GENERATION Putting into operation installed capacity of GWt will
increase the share of renewable energy in power generation from 0,5
to 4,5% Forecasted development of renewable power generation 13
Energy Saving Saving of 240 bln. cub. m of natural gas, 340 bln.
kilowatt-hour of electric power, 90 mln t of coal and 45 mln t of
oil and oil products Expected results of energy saving and increase
in energy efficiency in Russia Improvement in competitiveness of
national economy under conditions of growing tariffs for energy
resources Increase in revenues from extra export of oil and natural
gas: bln. USD Decrease in governmental expanses: 3-5 bln. USD
Reduction in CO 2 emissions: 790 mln t/y Improvement in ecological
situation in the country Consumption of energy resources can be
reduced by: 20% in heat supply 30% in power generation 40% in
industry and transportation 50% in living apartments Potential of
energy saving in Russia is estimated at level of 45% of the current
consumption of energy resources 14 Export of primary energy
resources up to Strategic indicators of Russian oil industry
Indicators/directions20081 st Stage2 nd Stage3 rd Stage Efficiency
of land use Recovery ratio Production Share of Eastern Siberia and
Far East in total production, % Transportation Growth in capacity
of arterial pipelines and export maritime-terminals, mln. t (basic
year 2005) Proficit of export capacities (including those for
transit purposes), mln. t Refining Average processing depth Ratio
of light oil products Nelson index of complexity 4,36,06,58,5
Consumption of oil products per capita, t 0,51,01,1-1,31,3-1,6
Export of oil and oil products Share of Eastern vector in the total
volume of oil and oil products export, % 17 Oil production by
region up to 2030 Oil export up to 2030 Oil refining up to 2030 Oil
Sector: Forecast up to Indicators/directions20081 st Stage2 nd
Stage3 rd Stage Production Share of new region in total production,
%, including Yamal Eastern Siberia and Far East Share of
independent producers in total production, % Transportation Growth
of arterial pipelines length, % by the level of Share of
reconstructed pipelines, % of the total length of United System of
Gas Supply Export Share of the Asia-Pacific in total export, %
Share of LNG in total export, % Strategic indicators of Russian gas
industry 19 Gas production by region up to 2030 Gas export up to
2030 Gas Sector: Forecast up to Forecast of investment in energy
sector and energy supply of the national economy for the year of %
of investment in FEC will be directed in power generation, 22-26% -
in oil industry, 21-24% - in gas industry and 3% - in coal
industry. The sphere of energy supply will receive 22-23% of
investment, forecasted in ES Expected results of ES )Guaranteed
energy security of Russia and its regions 2)Competent participation
of Russia in ensuring global energy security, partly by means of
diversification of export 3)Gradual decrease in dependency of
national economy from oil and gas sector and respective decline of
FECs share in the structure of GDP from 30 to 18% 4)Decrease in
specific energy intensity of GDP by 2,1-2,3 times 5)Optimization of
fuel and energy balance, decline in the share of natural gas in
energy consumption from 52 to 46-47% and increase in the share of
non-fuel energetics from 11 to 13-14% 6)Exploration and
exploitation of new oil and gas producing regions 7)Development of
the social partnership between energy companies and society 8)
Improvement in financial stability, budget efficiency and
investment prosperity of energy companies 9)Innovative renovation
of production assets and energy infrastructure, development of new
energy technologies 10)Ecological security and efficiency of FEC,
limitation of greenhouse gases emissions (up to % by the level of
1990) owing to realization of the potential for energy saving 21
Thank you for your attention! 22
