Energy Status and an EmissionEnergy Status and an Emission Scenario of ChinaSce a o o C a

Chen Wenyingy gNiu Yujing

Cambridge December 11 2008Cambridge, December 11,2008

1

OUTLINEOUTLINE

• Summary of energy status and trend in China

• Policies and achievement to respond to climate change

• An energy development and carbon emission scenario

• Conclusion• Conclusion

2

Primary Energy Production and Consumption

1980 – 1984: low increasing of energy consumption due to decreasing proportion of secondary industry

1985 1996 l ti i i f ti d t1985 – 1996: accelerating increasing of energy consumption due to the light industry expansion

1996 – 2000: energy consumption increasing fluctuation1996 – 2000: energy consumption increasing fluctuation 2000– 2007: accelerating increasing of energy consumption 3

Energy Flowchart of China in 2005

4

China’s Power Sector Development

E d d 600 GW i 2006

Exceeded 700 GW in 2007

Exceeded 500 GW in 2005

Exceeded 600 GW in 2006

Exceeded 400 GW in 2004

Exceeded 300 GW in 2000

Exceeded 100 GW in 1987

Exceeded 200 GW in 1995

1 85 GW in 1949

57.12 GW in 1978

Exceeded 100 GW in 1987

1.85 GW in 1949

5

China’s Power Mix from 2003 to 2007

6

Unit Scale Mix and Energy Efficiency of Thermal Power

Coal consumption ofpower supply (gce/kWh)Unit Size (MW) Coal consumption ofpower supply (gce/kWh)Unit Size (MW)

Energy efficiency of different size of coal power unit in China in 2006

1000MW

Thermal Power Mix as of end 2007

50025550126006

power supply (gce/kWh)Unit Size (MW)

50025550126006

power supply (gce/kWh)Unit Size (MW)

0-99MW30%

500-990MW17%

2%

3403004101004405050025

3403004101004405050025

100 199MW

300-390MW32%

285.61000292600299600340300

285.61000292600299600340300

200-299MW10%

100-199MW9%

32%

399417

414412

410408420

450

357366

370376

380383

385392

399414 410 404

360

390

300

330

Coal Consumption of Power Supply（ gce/KWh)

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBSC), National Development and Reform Comission (NDRC), Asian Development Bank (ADB). 7

Unit Scale Mix of New Installed Capacity of Coal Power140 2007

2006 123.6GW

)140 2007

2006 123.6GW

)140 2007

200620072006 123.6GW

)

120 20052004

Pla

nt (

GW

)

USC Units: Zouxian 2×1000MW

120 20052004

Pla

nt (

GW

)

120 2005200420052004

Pla

nt (

GW

)

USC Units: Zouxian 2×1000MWUSC Units: Zouxian 2×1000MW

80

10089.5GW

al P

ower

Pl USC Units: Zouxian. 2×1000MW

Yuhuan. 4 ×1000MW80

10089.5GW

al P

ower

Pl

80

10089.5GW

al P

ower

Pl USC Units: Zouxian. 2×1000MW

Yuhuan. 4 ×1000MW

USC Units: Zouxian. 2×1000MW

Yuhuan. 4 ×1000MW

60

80

city

of C

oa

Yuhuan. 4 ×1000MW

Taizhou. 2×1000MW60

80

city

of C

oa

60

80

city

of C

oa

Yuhuan. 4 ×1000MW

Taizhou. 2×1000MW

Yuhuan. 4 ×1000MW

Taizhou. 2×1000MW

40

60

lled

Cap

ac

000 W

40

60

lled

Cap

ac

40

60

lled

Cap

ac

000 W000 W

20 16.9GW9 8GWN

ew I

nsta

ll

20 16.9GW9 8GWN

ew I

nsta

ll

20 16.9GW9 8GWN

ew I

nsta

ll

0100 200 300 600 1000

3.8GW9.8GW

7GWN

0100 200 300 600 1000

3.8GW9.8GW

7GWN

0100 200 300 600 1000

3.8GW9.8GW

7GWN

100 200 300 600 1000Unit Capacity (MW)

Source: Tsinghua-BP Clean Energy Research & Education Centre. Note: USC, Ultra-supercritical

100 200 300 600 1000Unit Capacity (MW)

100 200 300 600 1000Unit Capacity (MW)

Source: Tsinghua-BP Clean Energy Research & Education Centre. Note: USC, Ultra-supercritical8

St t i Obj ti t R d t Cli t ChStrategic Objectives to Respond to Climate Change

China’s National Climate Change Programme (June 2007)• to make significant achievements in controlling greenhouse• to make significant achievements in controlling greenhouse

gas emissions• to enhance the capability of continuous adaptation to• to enhance the capability of continuous adaptation to

climate changet t li t h l t d i t h l d• to promote climate change related science, technology and R&D to a new level

• to remarkably raise public awareness on climate change• and to further strengthen the institutions and mechanisms

on climate change

9

Policies and Objectives to Respond to Climate ChangeAccelerating the transformation of economic growth pattern:

about 20% reduction of energy consumption per unit GDP by 2010

Optimizing energy consumption structure: Op g e e gy co su p o s uc u e

to raise the proportion of renewable energy (including large-scale hydropower)

i i l t 10% b 2010in primary energy supply up to 10% by 2010

Developing a recycling economy, raising resources utilization efficiency

By 2010, the emissions of nitrous oxide from industrial production should be no

higher than in 2005.g e t a 005

Carrying out the policies and measures on forestation, returning

farmland to forest and grassland, natural forest protection and so on:

Increasing the forest coverage rate to 20% and realizing the increase of carbon

sink by 50 million tons over the level of 2005 by 2010. 10

Achievement in 2007

• Energy intensity per GDP reductionEnergy intensity per GDP reduction

– 1.79%(2006) 3.66%(2007)

• Development and application of advance technology

• Accelerating the pace of eliminating backward production capacityAccelerating the pace of eliminating backward production capacity

14.38 million kW of small thermal power units (37.6 million tons CO2 annually)

46.59 million tons of iron-smelting capacity

37.47 million tons of steelmaking capacity

52 million tons of cement production capacity

More than 2 000 heavily polluting papermaking plantsMore than 2,000 heavily polluting papermaking plants,

chemical plants, and printing and dyeing mills

About 11,200 small coal mines. 11

Assumption on Future Economic Development p p

12

Assumption on Populationp p

1500

700

13

Assumption on Industry Structure Adjustment

14

Compare of GDP Assumptions

30000

25000

0$

15000

20000

llion

200

0

10000

GD

P/ b

il

0

5000

02000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TU2008 ERI ESR NIC DRC TU2005

15

Compare of Population Assumptionsp p p

15.516.0

14 515.0

08 )

13 514.014.5

OP(

10

13.013.5PO

12.012.5

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050TU2008 TU2005 ERI ESREIA IEA APERCEIA IEA APERC

16

A Scenario of Energy DevelopmentA Scenario of Energy Development

17

A Scenario of Carbon EmissionA Scenario of Carbon Emission

CO2 Emission (billion t CO2)

Energy Consumption

CO2 Emission per unit Energy Consumption

Energy Consumption /Population

CO2 /Population(t CO2 per capital)

CO2/GDP(kg CO2/$)(billion t CO2)Consumption

(billion tce)Energy Consumption (kgCO2/kgce)

/Population(tce per capital)

(t CO2 per capital) (kg CO2/$)

18

C f C b E i i C it l (2005)Compare of Carbon Emission per Capital (2005)

19

Conclusion

• As a developing country with a coal dominated energy mix, China faces severe challenges when coping with climateChina faces severe challenges when coping with climate change along with the acceleration of urbanization and industrializationindustrialization.

• China has made great efforts to mitigate carbon emission within the framework of sustainable developmentwithin the framework of sustainable development.

• Developing countries should have room of carbon emission th t f th d l th i d i li igrowth to further develop their economy and improve living

standard.Fi i l t d t h l t f f d l d• Financial support and technology transfer from developed to developing countries should be encouraged to allow d l i t i k t t ib ti t iti tdeveloping countries make greater contribution to mitigate GHG emissions.

20

21