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Energy Security; Qatar Crisis and Global Gas Security
LNG MARKET IN 2022
MarketDynamics
Long-term commitment/ less flexibility
Production capacity higher
than trade volumes
Regionalprices
Market balance by 2020-2024:not much new
capacity
Cash cost vs. capital cost
Japan upcoming capacity for
re-contracting (2019-2025)
Hard to find buyers for 2024-2026
delivery
[email protected] 1629 K St NW, Suite 300, Washington, DC 20006 +1 202 600 7831 Fax: +1 202 331 3759
Supply DemandGlobal LNG export capacity:650 bcm/y (452 bcm/y in 2016)
US will account for 40%of the production growth
Top exporters’ capacity:
Australia: 117.8 bcm/y(additional 30 bcm/y)
United States: 106.7 bcm/y(additional 90 bcm/y)
Qatar: 104.9 bcm/y(additional 30 bcm/y)
Global gas demand willgrow 1.6%/Y until 2022
Demand will reach almost 4,000 bcm(from 3,630 bcm in 2016)
China will account for 40%of demand growth
Industrial demand willreplace power sector demand(rivals: renewables & coal)
MARKET SHARE OF THE TOP LNG EXPORTERS IN 2016 (MTPA)
MARKET SHARE OF THE TOP LNG IMPORTERS IN 2016 (MTPA)
Japan32,30%
Taiwan5,80%
India7,40%
China10,40%
Korea13,10%
Qatar29,90
Indonesia6,40%
Nigeria7,20%
Australia17,20%
Malaysia9,70%
Energy Security; Qatar Crisis and Global Gas Security
ROLE OF US LNG IN 2022
QATAR CRISIS
Currently US LNG pricesare high at the delivery point
At the current prices, US LNG can’t compete with “oil-indexed” prices & spot prices in Asia
Russian providers in EUand price risk for US
Huge capacity under construction.
Most of the upcoming capacity is sold to middle men & not the end users
US LNG supply crucial for bunkering (2025-2030
US LPG export growth: Largest in the market (low oil prices restraining profitability
Flexible contracts: crucialfor security of supply atthe time of crisis
[email protected] 1629 K St NW, Suite 300, Washington, DC 20006 +1 202 600 7831 Fax: +1 202 331 3759
US Production and Export US Market Advantages
The world’s largest gasconsumer and producer
Production by 2022: 890 bcm(more than a fifth of global gas output).
Production from the Marcelluswill increase by 45% between2016 and 2022
Export capacity will raise to to 9.2 bcf (equal to Japan's LNG imports in 2015)
Second largest LNG exporter
No impact to Qatar’s LNG supplies
No interruption since 1997 due to political issues
2016 Qatar exports: 77mtpa
12% of 2016 exports sold to ME(Pakistan, Egypt, UAE, Kuwait & Jordan)
No supply interruption in Dolphinpipeline between Abu Dhabi & Qatar
LNG cargoes still loading from Ras Laffan
Qatari cargoes continue totransit through the Suez Canal
Qatari LNG export to Egyptis delivered by traders not directly
Impact on LNG supplies
Japan reviewing long-term LNG contractswith Qatar & pushing for flexible terms
Buyers shifting to a more openlytraded global market for the LNG.
Impact on LNG supplies
Challenges Aheadfor US LNG Export
890bcm
12%
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