Upload
others
View
2
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Towards Energy Security in ASEAN: Impact of Regional Trade, Renewables and Energy Efficiency
Liu Yang, Zhong Sheng & Dina Azhgaliyeva Energy Studies Institute
National University of Singapore
Baku, March 12, 2018
Changing dynamics of global energy demand
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook (2015)
Primary energy demand and GDP by selected region in IEA New Policies Scenario (1990-2040)
Primary energy demand, 2035 (Mtoe)
4%
65%
10%
8%
8% 5%
OECD
Non-OECD Asia
Middle East
Africa
Latin America
Eurasia
Share of global growth 2012-2035
480
Brazil 1 540
India
1 000 Southeast
Asia
4 060
China
1 030
Africa
2 240 United States 440
Japan
1 710
Europe 1 370
Eurasia
1 050 Middle East
Changing dynamics of global demand
Global energy demand increases by one-third over the period to 2035. Countries from the OECD make only a marginal
contribution to this growth – only 4%.
Source: IEA,2013
2nd Asian Energy Modelling Workshop on Climate Change and Sustainable Development Singapore, July 2015
3
• ASEAN is 9 times population intensive than Central Asia • But the latter has much richer energy endowment, in particular natural
gas.
4
Central Asia ASEAN
Countries Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, &
Uzbekistan,
Thailand, Indonesia,
Vietnam, Philippines,
Malaysia, Singapore,
Myanmar (Burma),
Cambodia, Laos, Brunei
Population (2016, million) 70 639
GDP, billion USD (2016) 306.8 2595
Reserves (2016)
Crude oil, billion bbl 31.25 13.39
Natural gas,tln cubic feet 415.4 200.24
Energy productivity in ASEAN over 1971-2015
▫ Increase in energy use by a factor of 4.5
▫ Increase in GDP by a factor of 10.36
▫ Double energy productivity
▫ Increase in GDP per capita by a factor of 4.2
5
6
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
GD
P p
er c
ap
ita
(U
S$
)
En
ery
pro
du
ctiv
ity
(10
00
US
$ /
kto
e)
Energy productivity and GDP per capita in ASEAN
Energy productivity GDP per capita (constant 2010 US$)
• Energy productivity growth ▫ 105% during 1971 –
2015
• Growth of GDP per capita: ▫ 421% during 1971 –
2015
7
• Growth of total energy use ▫ 454% during 1971 –
2015
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Kto
e
Total final energy use in ASEAN, 1971 – 2015
However, challenges remain
Energy consumption structure
High dependence on fossil fuels
Limited shares of geothermal, hydro, solar and wind energy
Energy trade
8
9
10
• Renewable energy structure ▫ Geothermal: around 5%
▫ Hydro, solar and wind energy: below 5%
▫ Biofuels:
Provided directly by forestry and agriculture e.g., firewood, wood chips
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
%
Share of renewable energy in total energy use in ASEAN
Biofuels Geothermal Hydro Solar and wind
11
• Major active countries in renewable energy production in ASEAN ▫ Geothermal energy:
Philippines and Indonesia
▫ Hydro energy: Viet Nam, Indonesia and Malaysia
▫ Biofuels energy: Indonesia, Thailand and Viet Nam
▫ Solar and wind energy: Thailand and Philippines
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
MW
Example: Cumulative net capacity of solar power plants in ASEAN
Vietnam
Thailand
Singapore
Philippines
Myanmar
Malaysia
Indonesia
Cambodia
12
• Energy use > energy production ▫ Cambodia ▫ Thailand ▫ Philippines
• Energy use < energy production ▫ Brunei Darussalam ▫ Indonesia ▫ Laos ▫ Malaysia ▫ Myanmar ▫ Viet Nam
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Share of energy use to energy production in ASEAN
Brunei Darussalam Cambodia
Indonesia Lao People's Dem. Rep.
Malaysia Myanmar
Philippines Thailand
Viet Nam
13
• Example of Singapore: ▫ Energy use is more
than 20 times energy production
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Singapore: share of energy use to energy production
14
• What drives growth in energy use?
• With latest data from IEA and ADB Input-Output tables, we decompose increase in global energy use into three factors:
▫ Activity effect : 64%
▫ Economic structural change effect: 20%
▫ Energy efficiency effect: 28%
1.41
1.64
1.20
0.72
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2000 2005 2010 2015
Global energy use decomposition between 2000 and 2015
Energy use
Activity effect
Economic structural change effect
Energy efficiency effect
15
• Example of Indonesia
1.64
2.40
1.11
0.61
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2000 2005 2010 2015
Indonesia: energy use decomposition between 2000 and 2015
Energy use
Activity effect
Economic structural change effect
Energy efficiency effect
What drives growth in energy use?
• Decompositions of energy use in selected economies between 2000 and 2015
16
Energy use Activity effect
Energy efficiency effect
Economic structural change effect
Philippines 1.41 1.98 0.65 1.10
Thailand 1.69 1.67 0.79 1.28
Malaysia 1.67 2.41 0.90 0.77
Indonesia 1.64 2.40 0.61 1.11
Viet Nam 2.83 2.06 1.03 1.34
Russia 1.06 1.57 0.71 0.94
Mongolia 2.07 4.39 0.52 0.90
China 3.23 4.86 0.64 1.05
India 2.33 2.67 0.65 1.33
Energy trade
• Data: UNCTAD
• Trade of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC 3) in thousands of US dollars, including:
▫ Coal, coke and briquettes
▫ Petroleum, petroleum products and related materials
▫ Gas, natural and manufactured
▫ Electric current
• Regional concentration of energy trade ▫ Destinations of energy exports from ASEAN: mostly Asia-Pacific region
▫ Home economies of energy exports to ASEAN: Middle East & Asia-Pacific region
17
Energy trade
• Who buys energy products from ASEAN? ▫ Japan
▫ China
▫ Australia
▫ South Korea
▫ Hong Kong
▫ India
▫ Taiwan
▫ United States
▫ New Zealand
▫ Bangladesh
18
• Who sells energy products to ASEAN?
▫ United Arab Emirates
▫ Saudi Arabia
▫ South Korea
▫ Qatar
▫ Taiwan
▫ Kuwait
▫ China
▫ India
▫ Australia
▫ Oman
▫ United States
▫ Iran
▫ Russia
19
Determinants of energy trade 1995 – 2016
• Findings based on trade gravity model:
▫ Distance matters: Longer distance lowers energy exports
▫ Economic size
Larger GDP producer tends to have more energy trade
▫ Energy intensity
Higher energy intensity in an exporter tends to reduce its energy exports
Higher energy intensity in an importer tends to increase its energy imports
▫ Share of renewables in energy mix
Economies with larger share of renewables tend to import more energy
▫ Regional trade agreement: correlated with increasing energy trade
▫ Oil reserves
Exporters with more oil reserves tend to export more energy
Importers with more oil reserves tend to import less energy
• Energy trade within Central Asia is 2 times larger than the trade within ASEAN
20
Determinants of energy trade (* p<.05, ** p<.01, *** p<.001) 21
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5
Distance -1.501*** -1.629*** -1.717*** -2.083*** -2.012***
(0.0308) (0.0388) (0.0409) (0.0609) (0.0602)
GDP of exporters 0.947*** 1.075*** 1.086*** 0.874*** 0.879***
(0.0147) (0.0228) (0.0228) (0.0397) (0.0396)
GDP of importers 0.764*** 1.025*** 0.935*** 1.348*** 1.353***
(0.0136) (0.0226) (0.0227) (0.0379) (0.0378) Energy intensity of exporters -0.0673 -0.0863 -0.345*** -0.375***
(0.0569) (0.0581) (0.0948) (0.0945)
Energy intensity of importers -0.0213 -0.167** 0.210* 0.181*
(0.0515) (0.0523) (0.0847) (0.0845)
Regional trade agreement 0.481*** 0.450*** 0.403*** 0.375***
(0.052) (0.0564) (0.0865) (0.0869)
Share of renewables in exporters
0.0202 -0.0359 -0.0434
(0.0151) (0.0241) (0.0238)
Share of renewables in importers
0.0795*** 0.186*** 0.178***
(0.0157) (0.0263) (0.0261)
Oil reserves of exporters 0.308*** 0.305***
(0.0194) (0.0193)
Oil reserves of importers -0.0635** -0.0669***
(0.0201) (0.0201)
Exporters and importers within Central Asia
5.538***
(0.451)
Exporters and importers within ASEAN
2.073***
(0.417)
Constant -25.41*** -35.98*** -35.60*** -35.46*** -37.36***
(0.571) (1.06) (1.165) (1.81) (1.81)
Number of observations 162943 125827 103133 51711 51711
22
• Renewable energy structure ▫ Hydro energy is the
major renewable source in Central Asia, in particular Tajikistan.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
kto
e
Renewable energy production in Central Asia
Biofuels Geothermal Hydro Solar and wind
23
• Energy use> energy production ▫ Kyrgyzstan
▫ Tajikistan
• Energy use< energy production ▫ Kazakhstan
▫ Turkmenistan
▫ Uzbekistan
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Share of energy use to energy production in Central Asia
Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan
Turkmenistan Uzbekistan
Energy trade
• Who buys energy products from Central Asia? ▫ Italy
▫ China
▫ Ukraine
▫ Switzerland
▫ Netherlands
▫ France
▫ Russia
▫ Romania
▫ Austria
▫ Canada
▫ Israel
▫ Spain
24
• Who sells energy products to Central Asia?
▫ Most from Russia
25
Selected home economies of energy exports to Central Asia, 1995 – 2016
Russian Federation
China
Algeria
Finland
Turkey
Germany
Belarus
Azerbaijan
Lithuania
Iran
Ukraine
Conclusions
• Development in renewables has not significantly contributed to improving energy security so far
• Progress in energy intensity tends to reduce reliance on energy imports
• Energy efficiency progress contributed to reducing energy demand, but largely offset by economic structural change in part of ASEAN countries
• Regional economic integration has a significant role in promoting energy trade
26
Policy implications
• Countries need to enhance the role of renewables in long term energy strategy
• Energy saving gains must be enabled by technological change and economic structure change
• Regional trade help improve energy security
• Central Asia faces serious infrastructure bottleneck to realize energy bonus due to lack of maritime transport facilities
27
Thank you!
Contact: Dr. Liu Yang [email protected] Dr. Zhong Sheng [email protected] Dr. Dina Azhgaliyeva [email protected]