Energy Security Fact Pack...EV sales displaces 8 Mbd over 2017 levels. Deloitte LLP [8] 2040 No information given. U.S. motor fuel consumption decreases by 2.9 Mbd over 2016 levels

Energy Security Fact PackQ4 2017

@Securing_Energy#SAFEenergyfacts

ENERGY SECURITY FACT PACK

Contents

SUMMARY

OPPORTUNITIES TO REDUCE OIL DEMAND

U.S. OIL SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND TRADE

GLOBAL OIL MARKET DYNAMICS

OIL DEPENDENCE AND ENERGY SECURITY

SOLUTIONS AND ALTERNATIVES

SAFE’s Energy Security Fact Pack provides a data-driven overview of the latest trends in U.S. energy security, including domestic and global oil production and consumption, oil market dynamics, energy prices, consumer spending on oil, fuel efficiency, and advanced fuel vehicles.

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

1

SUMMARY

Opportunities to Reduce Oil Demand

2

• Increasing domestic oil production could help the United States reclaim its status as the world’s second largest crude producer. New EIA data pegs December 2019 output at 11.2 million barrels per day (Mbd) [Pages 9 & 10]. At domestic oil prices of roughly $65 per barrel, shale production has become even more economical, leading producers to finish drilled but uncompleted wells, and growing overall U.S. liquids supply by 10% year-on-year (y/y) [Pages 9, 15 & 25]. Although these new supplies have helped reduce the nation’s oil import burden, the United States still relies on OPEC for 31% of its crude imports [Pages 12 & 13].

• Russia’s commitment to cooperate in oil market management with Saudi Arabia and other petro-states continues to create global supply uncertainties [Page 20]. Alongside rising non-OECD demand, market fundamentals remain in flux [Page 16]. SAFE spotlights China’s market as one important driver of this uncertainty. SUVs now represent approximately 40% of China’s new passenger vehicle sales, growing the country’s gasoline demand. However, Beijing’s electric vehicle (EV) mandate could help offset this increase [Pages 21 & 22].

• SAFE highlights opportunities for the United States transportation sector to reduce oil demand. Forecasting agencies have unveiled a wide-range of oil displacement scenarios, in part differentiated by varying fuel efficiency and EV market share expectations [Page 4]. EIA’s latest outlook shows substantial light-duty vehicle (LDV) fuel economy improvements through 2050 [Page 5]. Although tax credit availability has helped make EVs an affordable and viable option for consumers, a couple of automakers will soon hit the current tax threshold [Page 6]. EV and autonomous vehicle (AV) demand is nevertheless likely to pick up as auto and tech companies spend more on innovations that further increase affordability [Page 7].


Contents

3

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

SUMMARY






3


Oil Displacement Scenarios

8

Several oil companies including Shell, BP, ExxonMobil and Statoil foresee steady reductions in petroleum demand through 2040. To varying degrees, forecasts cite growing EV market share as a prominent driver for global oil demand reductions.

4

Source: [1] EIA. AEO. 2018. p. 116 [2] Statoil. Energy Perspectives 2017: Long-Term Macro and Market Outlook. 2017. Note: Uses Statoil’s “Reform” Case. [3] IEA. Global EV Outlook, 2017. [4] Ben Van Beurden quoted in Ambrose. Shell braces for ‘lower forever’ oil amid electric vehicle boom. The Telegraph. July 27, 2017. p. 3. [5] BP. Energy Outlook, 2018. [6] Exxon. Global Energy Outlook, 2017 [7] BNEF Electric Vehicle Outlook 2017, Executive Summary. p. 3. [8] Slaughter & Shattuck. The future of mobility: Impact on transportation fuel. Deloitte Insights. Nov. 15, 2016.

Company Year EV Total Fleet Transport Fuel Demand

EIA [1] 2025 and 2040

1.1 million EV sales by 2025 under reference case, or 7% of total sales. By 2040, U.S. BEV sales increase to

10% and PHEV sales increase to 1.8% of total sales.

Efficiency is the main driver for decreases in motor gasoline consumption.

Statoil ASA [2] 2030 36 million BEV and 15 million PHEV sales, or 12% market share.

Demand falls from 23.6 Mbd in 2014 to 22.4 Mbd by 2030.

IEA [3] 2030 56 million under reference case or 14% of new LDV sales.

EV’s will have a limited impact on global fuel demand by 2022. Growth in Developing Countries will drive

demand increases. Oil demand does not peak until the 2040s.

Royal Dutch Shell PLC [4] 2030 No information given. Could peak in 2030s.

BP PLC [5] 2040 320 million or 16% global fleetRoughly flat (18.7 Mbd in 2016 versus 18.6 Mbd in

2040). EV fleet transition and fuel efficiency gains displace growth in travel demand.

ExxonMobil Oil Corp [6] 2040 10% EV (United States) More than 22 Mbd.

BNEF [7] 2040 EVs sales at 54% of new LDV sales and 33% of the global fleet. EV sales displaces 8 Mbd over 2017 levels.

Deloitte LLP [8] 2040 No information given. U.S. motor fuel consumption decreases by 2.9 Mbd over 2016 levels.


Fuel Economy Improvements

8

LDV fuel economy will save up to 2.6 Mbd in the coming decades as current rules boost efficiency over 2016 levels. Fleetwide miles per gallon (mpg) will improve from 22.4 mpg to 38.2 mpg by 2050 (+15.8 mpg over 2016 levels).

5

-18

-12

-6

0

6

12

18

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

2016 2022 2029 2036 2043 2050

Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Demand (Change, y/2016)

Light-Duty Vehicle Stock Fuel Economy (y/2016) (RHS)

Million Barrels of Oil Equivalent per Day (Change, 2016 baseline) Miles per Gallon (Change, 2016 baseline)

Source: SAFE analysis based on data from EIA


Federal EV Tax Credit

8

Several automakers are nearing the maximum 200,000 federal tax credits available for EVs. Roughly 32,000 and 37,000 tax credits remain for GM and Tesla, respectively. Popular 2018 model year vehicles will likely exhaust the availability of these consumer credits.

6

0

40,000

80,000

120,000

160,000

200,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

GM Tesla Nissan

Ford Toyota BMW

Note: Chart includes automakers with 50,000 or more cumulative EV sales. Source: SAFE analysis based on data from Hybridcars.com

Estimated Federal EV Tax Credits Consumed as of December 2017


Autonomous Vehicle Investments

8

As EV demand picks up, auto and tech companies are investing heavily in AVs. Alongside electrification, ridesharing and autonomy can catalyze fuel displacement. In H1 2017, tech firms announced $65 billion in AV spending and created 24 new partnerships.

7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

H2 H1 H2 H1

2015 2016 2017

Technology Investment

Auto Investment

Total Deals (RHS)

Source: SAFE analysis based on data provided by Brookings

Billion U.S. Dollars Cumulative Deals/Partnerships Announced


Contents

9

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

SUMMARY






8


U.S. Oil Rig Count Flat

8

The U.S. oil rig count remained roughly flat in Q4, falling to 747 by December 2017. The rig count ended Q4 down 3 rigs quarter-over-quarter (q/q). Crude oil production reached 9.8 Mbd (+0.2 Mbd q/q), partially as a result of producers finishing drilled but uncompleted wells.

9

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018

0

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

1,800

U.S. Crude Oil Production

Oil Rig Count (RHS)

Source: EIA and Baker Hughes

Rig CountThousand Barrels per Day

EIA's latest forecast shows U.S. crude oil production climbing to a high of 11.2 Mbd in December 2019.


U.S. Oil Production Rebound Continues

10

U.S. liquids production grew 0.72 Mbd q/q in Q4 2017 to 14.8 Mbd (+1.4 y/y). Inclusive of fuel ethanol and natural gas liquids, total U.S. liquids production is roughly 6.6 Mbd higher than in 2008. The United States is the world’s largest liquid fuels producer.

10

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Crude Oil Fuel Ethanol NGLs

Million Barrels per Day



Transportation Fuel Demand Growth is Steady

11

U.S. demand for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel averaged 14.5 Mbd in Q4 2017, roughly on par with Q4 2016. Total vehicle miles traveled (VMT) increased 85 million miles y/y (+1.0%), continuing 15 consecutive quarters of growth.

11

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

-1.2

-0.9

-0.6

-0.3

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Transport Fuels VMT (RHS)

Million Barrels per Day (Change, y/y)


Million Miles per Day (Change, y/y)


Imports Continue to Fall on OPEC Cutbacks

11

Gross U.S. crude oil and petroleum product imports fell to 9.7 Mbd in Q4 2017 (-0.2 Mbd y/y). Imports from Saudi Arabia and Venezuela fell by 0.6 Mbd y/y. OPEC accounted for roughly 31% of total Q4 U.S. imports.

12

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Saudi Arabia Venezuela Other OPEC

Canada Mexico Other Non-OPEC


SAFE



U.S. Net Imports Fall Sharply

13

Although net imports have fallen by about two-thirds since 2005, the United States continues to rely on imported crude oil. Total net imports of petroleum products fell to a 3.1 Mbd in Q4 (-1.8 Mbd y/y). Petroleum product exports increased 0.9 Mbd y/y to 3.6 Mbd.

13

-4

0

4

8

12

16

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Crude Oil and Petroleum Product Exports Crude Oil and Petroleum Product Imports

Net Imports




Contents

14

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

SUMMARY






14


Global Oil Supplies Rise on U.S. Liquids Growth

15

Global oil production increased in Q4 2017 to 98.6 Mbd as OPEC’s cuts were offset by resurgent production elsewhere. The United States has contributed approximately 61% of net global supply growth between 2012 and 2017.

15

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

United States Liquids Other non-OPEC

Saudi Arabia Crude Other OPEC Crude

OPEC NGLs Total


Million Barrels per Day (Change, Y-o-Y)United States liquids production continues to grow, increasing 10% year-over-year in Q4 2017.


Global Oil Demand Growth Keeps Steady

16

Global oil demand grew 1.5 Mbd y/y in Q4 2017, driven by growth in non-OECD countries (+1.4 Mbd y/y). Demand in OECD countries was roughly flat at 47.3 Mbd (+0.08 Mbd y/y). Global oil demand reached approximately 99.0 Mbd in Q4.

16

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

United States Other OECD China

Other non-OECD Total

Million Barrels per Day (Change, Y-o-Y)

China’s oil demand growth slowed to 3.1% in 2017 (-3.2% percentage points below 2015 levels).



Non-OPEC Supply Continues Resurgence

Non-OPEC supply increased for a fourth consecutive quarter after seeing declines in 2016. Global oil demand growth has outpaced non-OPEC liquids supply for the last 11 quarters, rising 1.2 Mbd above non-OPEC liquids supply in Q4.

17

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Global Demand Non-OPEC Liquids

Million Barrels per Day (Change, y/y)

Non-OPEC liquids supply grew 2.7 Mbd in 2017.



Unplanned Crude Oil Outages Rise

Global unplanned outages rose to 1.6 Mbd in Q4 2017 (+0.2 Mbd q/q) as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait each experienced 0.25 Mbd in outages. OPEC outages increased 0.35 Mbd q/q to 1.2 Mbd, and non-OPEC outages decreased 0.2 Mbd to 0.4 Mbd q/q.

18

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Non-OPEC Saudi Arabia Kuwait Iraq

Libya Nigeria Iran




OPEC Spare Crude Oil Production Capacity Holds Steady

21

OPEC spare crude oil production capacity was 1.3 Mbd in Q4 2017 (-0.4 Mbd y/y), equivalent to 1.2% of global consumption. The majority of OPEC’s spare production capacity is held by Saudi Arabia.

19

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

OPEC Spare Crude Oil Production Capacity




Barrels at Risk Map

20

Russia’s commitment to coordinate with Saudi Arabia on oil market management continues toundercut global supply. Deteriorating political conditions in Venezuela, Colombia, and Iran also threaten to further undermine output.

20

GLOBAL OIL MARKET DYNAMICS: CHINA SPOTLIGHT

China’s SUV Sales Lift Off

21

China’s passenger vehicle sales increased to 24.7 million units in Q4 2017 (+8% or 1.9 million cars y/y). Meanwhile, gasoline demand held steady y/y at 2.9 Mbd. Growing consumer interest in SUVs could fuel future demand. Nearly 40% of Q4 2017 passenger vehicle sales were SUVs.

21

0

5

10

15

20

25

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

China Passenger Vehicle Sales

U.S. Passenger Vehicle Sales

China Sports Utility Vehicle Sales

Million Units (Annualized)

Source: SAFE analysis based on data from BEA and Bloomberg, LP.

GLOBAL OIL MARKET DYNAMICS: CHINA SPOTLIGHT

China’s Electric Vehicle Sales Rise Sharply

21

China’s EV sales continue to grow as the government expands incentives for consumer adoption. EV sales increased roughly 243,000 units y/y to 581,000 vehicles in 2017 (+71% y/y). Beijing recently pushed forward its ambitious 8% EV mandate to 2019.

22

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2015 2016 2017

China BEV sales China PHEV sales

United States BEV sales United States PHEV

Note: In September 2017, China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced an 8% EV mandate on new passenger vehicles to start this year. The plan, a component of the “Made in China” 2025 initiative, was recently delayed until 2019. Source: SAFE analysis based on data from Bloomberg, LP.

Units Sold


Contents

22

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

SUMMARY






23


Light Truck Sales Continue on Record Surge

24

New light truck sales averaged 11.7 million units in Q4 2017, increasing by approximately 0.65 million units y/y. Light trucks now account for roughly 66% of new light-duty vehicle sales, a 5.9 percentage point increase y/y.

24

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Light Truck Sales Car Sales Light Truck Share (RHS)

Source: SAFE analysis based on data from BEA

Million Units Percent

New light truck sales grew 4.5% y/y in 2017, a deceleration versus 2015 and 2016 when sales grew 13% and 7.2% y/y, respectively.


Brent and WTI Prices Continue to Spread

23

Oil and product prices saw moderate increases in Q4. Average December Brent was $64.37/bbland WTI was $57.88/bbl. Relatively lower domestic prices have made U.S. crude oil more competitive in international markets, supporting record exports.

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Price of WTI Crude Oil Price of Brent Crude Oil


Dollars per Barrel


Oil Price Volatility Remains Low

24

Oil price volatility was relatively low throughout 2017, averaging 25 percent for the year. Volatility across all asset classes has declined due to the end of quantitative easing. Thirty-day WTI crude oil volatility averaged 21% in Q4.

26

0

25

50

75

100

125

0

30

60

90

120

150

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Percent VolatilityDollars per Barrel

Monthly Volatility (Annualized) (RHS) Oil Price



Household Gasoline Expenditures Rise

8

Household expenditures rose to their highest level since 2014 as consumers spent $296 billion on gasoline and other petroleum products (+$31 billion y/y and +$30 billion q/q). Expenditures continue to rise following steady increases in U.S. gasoline prices.

27

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Gasoline and Other Motor Fuels (RHS) Fuel Oil and Other Fuels (RHS) Other (RHS)

Source: SAFE analysis based on data from EIA and BEA

Billion Dollars (Annualized)


Contents

25

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

SUMMARY






28


Patchwork of AV Legislation

26

Thirty-eight states have considered regulating autonomous vehicle (AV) technologies, of which 14 states have passed such measures. In the absence of a uniform federal framework, a jumble of state legislation impedes AV testing and deployment.

29


Electricity and Natural Gas Prices Remain Stable

26

Liquid fuel prices have experienced substantial volatility since 2000. The prices of compressed natural gas (CNG) and electricity, however, have remained relatively stable during the same time period.

30

0

1

2

3

4

5

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Gasoline CNG Propane Diesel Electricity

Dollars per Gasoline Gallon Equivalent

Source: SAFE analysis based on data from Clean Cities Alternative Fuel Price Reports


New Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy Ratings Stable

27

The average fuel economy rating of new light-duty vehicles fell slightly in Q4 2017 to 25.2 mpg (-0.1 mpg q/q), continuing a two-year trend. MY 2018 fuel economy is 25.2 mpg, approximately 12% higher than 2010 levels.

31

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Model Year Average

Monthly Average

Note: Average sales-weighted fuel-economy rating of purchased new light-duty vehicles.Source: SAFE analysis based on data from Michael Sivak and Brandon Schoettle, University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute

MY 2008

MY 2009

MY 2010MY 2011

MY 2012

MY 2013

MY 2014

Miles per Gallon

MY 2015 MY 2016 MY 2017


Plug-in Electric Vehicle Sales Reach New Heights

27

Over 53,000 plug-in electric vehicles were sold in Q4 2017 (+8.9% y/y and +0.6% q/q). The outlook for EVs in 2018 is positive because of the extension of the $7,500 federal tax credit, competitive pricing among EV models, improvements in range, and rising gasoline costs.

32

0

7

14

21

28

35

42

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

GM Nissan

Ford Tesla

Toyota BMW

Others Volkswagen

Fiat Daimler

Kia EV and PHEV Models Available (RHS)

Source: SAFE analysis based on data from HybridCars.com

Units Sold Models2017

Automakers sold more than 193,000 electric vehicles in 2017 (+22% y/y).


Advanced Fueling Stations Continue to Climb

31

The number of advanced fueling stations nationwide increased 131% between 2013 and 2017, a net addition of approximately 35,600 stations. The vast majority of these new additions (95%) were for electric charging.

33

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017

Propane LNG Hydrogen CNG Biodiesel E85 Electric

Note: Starting in 2011, electric charge equipment was counted by the plug rather than by the geographic location. This is different than other fuels, which only count the geographic location regardless of how many dispensers or nozzles are on site.Source: Alternative Fuels Data Center

Count at End of Period (Thousands)


About, Links, and Contact

32

ABOUT

Securing America’s Future Energy (SAFE) is an action-oriented, nonpartisan organization that aims to reduce America’s dependence on oil. Near-total dependence on petroleum in the transportation sector undermines the nation’s economic and national security, and constrains U.S. foreign policy. To combat these threats, SAFE advocates for expanded domestic production of U.S. oil and gas resources, continued improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency, and transportation sector innovations including electric vehicles, natural gas trucks, and autonomous vehicles.

SAFE’s Energy Security Fact Pack, launched in 2014, provides a data-driven overview of the latest trends in U.S. energy security, including domestic and global oil production and consumption, oil market dynamics, energy prices, consumer spending on oil, fuel efficiency, and advanced fuel vehicles.

LINKS

SAFE: www.secureenergy.orgElectrification Coalition: www.electrificationcoalition.orgThe Fuse: www.energyfuse.org

CONTRIBUTORS

Paul Ruiz, Policy AnalystJeff Gerlach, Senior Policy Analyst

MEDIA CONTACT

For media inquires please contact Bridget Bartol, [email protected] or (202) 461-2361.

@Securing_Energy#SAFEenergyfacts

34

1111 19th St. NW, Suite 406, Washington, DC 20036 | (202) 461-2360

Documents

Energy Security Fact Pack...EV sales displaces 8 Mbd over 2017 levels. Deloitte LLP [8] 2040 No information given. U.S. motor fuel consumption decreases by 2.9 Mbd over 2016 levels