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ENERGY SECTOR STOCK PRESENTATION. Janelle R. Courtright John C. Williams Summer Quarter, 2007. SECTOR RECOMMENDATION. Continue to underweight to S&P 500 Recommend to keep holdings at 270 basis points below S&P Look to underweight in the next 6 months - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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ENERGY SECTOR STOCK
PRESENTATIONJanelle R. Courtright
John C. Williams
Summer Quarter, 2007
SECTOR RECOMMENDATION
Continue to underweight to S&P 500
Recommend to keep holdings at 270 basis points below S&P
Look to underweight in the next 6 months− Short-term returns to outperform S&P
500− Long-term returns will under perform
Drop in oil prices, cheaper alternatives becoming more available
CRUDE OIL PRICES
Recommendation Sell all of Schlumberger, Ltd.
− 308 basis points
Buy 308 basis points of BP ADS
Hold Exxon (XOM) and Peabody (BTU)
Remain at 270 basis points below S&P 500
Schlumberger, Ltd.
SLB Profile World’s leading oilfield services
provider
Been in business since 1926
Mature company
Cyclical company
Main driver: OIL PRICES
DCF Valuation
SLB Absolute Valuations
StockVal®SCHLUMBERGER LIMITED (SLB) Price 87.741997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
PRICE / YEAR-FORWARD EARNINGS0
20
40
60 HI 69.4 LO 13.7 ME 30.4 CU 18.4
08-01-199708-03-2007
PRICE / SALES2
4
6HI 6.09 LO 2.05 ME 3.75 CU 5.08
08-01-199708-03-2007
PRICE / EBITDA5
10
15
20 HI 99.9 +LO 6.5 ME 14.3 CU 13.9
08-01-199708-03-2007
PRICE / CASH FLOW ADJUSTED6
12
18
24 HI 27.8 LO 7.6 ME 16.6 CU 17.7
08-01-199708-03-2007
SLB Absolute Valuations
StockVal®SCHLUMBERGER LIMITED (SLB) Price 87.742002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20072002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
PRICE / YEAR-FORWARD EARNINGS RELATIVE TO S&P ENERGY SECTOR COMPOSITE ADJ (SP-10) M-Wtd1
2
3HI 3.15 LO 1.49 ME 2.16 CU 1.74
08-02-200208-03-2007
PRICE / EBITDA RELATIVE TO S&P ENERGY SECTOR COMPOSITE ADJ (SP-10) M-Wtd0.8
1.2
1.6
2.4HI 99.90 +LO 0.91 ME 2.58 CU 2.64
08-02-200208-03-2007
PRICE / SALES RELATIVE TO S&P ENERGY SECTOR COMPOSITE ADJ (SP-10) M-Wtd2
3
4
5 HI 5.19 LO 2.06 ME 3.61 CU 4.21
08-02-200208-03-2007
PRICE / CASH FLOW ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO S&P ENERGY SECTOR COMPOSITE ADJ (SP-10) M-Wtd0
1
2HI 2.72 LO 0.88 ME 1.88 CU 2.17
08-02-200208-03-2007
SLB Multiple Valuations
Absolute Valuation High Low Mean Current #Your Target Multiple
*Your Target E,S, B, etc/Share
Your Target Price (FxG)
A. B. C. D. E. F. G. H.P/Forward E 69.4 14.3 30.6 20 30.6 3.01 92.106P/S 6.09 2.05 3.75 5.44 3.75 16.32 61.2P/B 10.9 2.5 5.5 9.8 5.5 8.39 46.145P/EBITDA 99.9 6.5 14.4 15.2 14.4 3.98 57.312P/CF 27.8 7.6 16.6 19.2 16.6 3 49.8
Market Price 87.74
Avg $61.31
SLB OVERVALUED DCF Value is lower than market price
Target price is below current market price
Market Price of stock is too expensive based on valuations
Cyclical stock will fluctuate with the price of oil
Recommend: Sell
BP Profile Top 5 Energy Company
Mature company
Investing in and applying new, rapidly evolving technologies from new sources of energy that are low carbon and renewable
During 2006 renewable energy portfolio maintained a profit
Main driver: OIL PRICES
BP DCF
BP – Absolute Valuations
BP – Absolute Valuations
StockVal®BP PLC ADS (BP) Price 66.501997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
PRICE / YEAR-FORWARD EARNINGS RELATIVE TO S&P ENERGY SECTOR COMPOSITE ADJ (SP-10) M-Wtd0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2 HI 1.23 LO 0.77 ME 1.01 CU 0.92
08-01-199708-03-2007
PRICE / EBITDA RELATIVE TO S&P ENERGY SECTOR COMPOSITE ADJ (SP-10) M-Wtd0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2HI 1.55 LO 0.80 ME 1.12 CU 0.89
08-01-199708-03-2007
PRICE / SALES RELATIVE TO S&P ENERGY SECTOR COMPOSITE ADJ (SP-10) M-Wtd0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6 HI 1.82 LO 0.65 ME 1.04 CU 0.68
08-01-199708-03-2007
PRICE / CASH FLOW ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO S&P ENERGY SECTOR COMPOSITE ADJ (SP-10) M-Wtd0.8
1.0
1.2HI 1.35 LO 0.80 ME 1.01 CU 0.86
08-01-199708-03-2007
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
BP PLC ADS (BP)PRICE 66.50 DATE 08-03-2007PRICE 66.50 DATE 08-03-2007StockVal®
2727
2929
3232
3535
3838
4242
4646
5050
5555
6060
6565
7171
78
85
93
The Ohio State UniversityFisher College of Business
Price Change % Diff SP5
1-Day -3.60 -0.94
1-Week -4.25 -2.47
4-Weeks -9.52 -3.16
QTD -7.82 -3.14
YTD -0.89 -1.93
2006 4.48 -9.13
2005 9.97 6.96
2004 18.34 9.34 FYE Dec 2006 EPS 6.54
First Call Data 2007 2008 2009
Mean Estimate 6.20 6.61 7.16Change -5% +7% +8%
High 6.89 8.78 9.42
Low 5.75 5.35 6.15
Total 15 15 6
# Up 7 9 3
# Down 7 4 3
House Estimate
PE Ratio 10.7 10.1 9.3
Revenues ($Mil) 262,933
Market Value ($Mil) 237,818
Shares Out (Mil) 3,576.2
Volume 60-Day Avg (Th) 4,107
Volume 60-Day Avg ($M) 273.1
Dividend Estimate 2.48
Payout Ratio 40%
Retention Rate 60%
Dividend Yield 3.73%
Data Page # 1
BP UNDERVALUED DCF Value is higher than market
price
Absolute valuation shows value in stock
Company investing in future beyond petroleum
Recommend: Buy
Recommendation Sell all of Schlumberger, Ltd.
− 308 basis points
Buy 308 basis points of BP ADS
Hold Exxon (XOM) and Peabody (BTU)
Remain at 270 basis points below S&P 500
ANY QUESTIONS????
SLB DCF
BP DCF