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Energy Sector Company ProfilesLarge-Cap Integrates, Mid-Cap Producers, Pipelines
November 11, 2012
Matthew O’Regan | Energy Portfolio ManagerAlexander Banh | Energy Portfolio ManagerRahim Kara | Energy AnalystAttiq Rehman | Energy AnalystBrendon Skingle | Energy Analyst (Engineer)
This presentation is for informational purposes only, and is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, investment products or other financial product or service, an official confirmation of any transaction, or an official statement of Limestone Capital Investment Club. Any views or opinions presented are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of Limestone Capital.
2Large Cap Integrates Mid Cap Producers Midstream/Pipelines
Overview
• Royal Dutch Shell, through subsidiaries, explores for, produces, and refines petroleum, covering all segments
• Good exposure to liquified natural gas (LNG), historical strong performance in integrated gas and oil products
• Exports: Oil major BP has secured U.S. government permission to ship U.S. crude to Canada, RDS has applied for export license
• Early adopter of technology in peer group: Quest carbon capture project, construction on floating LNG project
• Diversified portfolio of products as an integrate minimizes segment-specific risk
YTD Stock Price Chart
Production News & Market Sentiment
• 2012 Q3 Financial Results:• Sales down 8.9% to $112b• Earnings $6.12b compared to $7.2b last year• Lower oil and gas prices and falling margins in
chemicals, weak demand for oil as a result of global economic slowdown
• Production: Not much growth in last 2 years, production hurt by theft, flooding & political instability in Nigeria
• 11/05/2012: Shell has sealed a two-year deal worth up to $4 billion to supply oil to mid-sized Russian refiner and retailer Bashneft
• Analysts Recommendations: $69 - $85
Royal Dutch Shell S.A. Profile
Large Cap Integrates Mid Cap Producers Midstream/Pipelines 3
Overview
• Exxon Mobil Corporation operates petroleum and petrochemicals businesses on a worldwide basis.
• Largest American oil company• Became country’s biggest gas producer three years
ago upon acquisition of XTO Energy, with specialization in shale gas drilling/exploration
• Operations include E&P of O&G, electric power generation, and coal and minerals operations, manufactures and markets fuels, lubricants, and chemicals.
• ~6.2 mmbpd of refining capacity makes XOM the world’s largest refiner
Operating Highlights: Upstream
News & Market Sentiment
• Earnings up 10% for past 9 months, but 2012 Q3 earnings still 8% lower than 2011 Q3
• Net income that topped highest forecasts from analysts as U.S. refineries diminished the impact of lower oil production and prices.
• Production problems in Kazakhstan and North Sea, upstream operations falling short of analyst estimates
• Downstream compensates for upstream weakness• Chemicals and R&M results strong• Heavy exposure to N.A. natural gas makes it sensitive
to weak domestic gas prices
ExxonMobil Profile
Crude & NGL production very stable, fluctuation in production mostly from natural gas. Declining production in all segments YTD 2012.
Downstream Segment Highlight
Percentage of earnings contributed by the refining business growing rapidly
Overview
• I’m probably not going to do this one.
Stock Price Chart
• Banh
Operating Highlights News & Market Sentiment
• Banh• Banh
Large Cap Integrates Mid Cap Producers Midstream/Pipelines 4
Total S.A. Profile
Overview
• SKINGLE
Stock Price Chart
• SKINGLE
Operating Highlights News & Market Sentiment
• SKINGLE• SKINGLE
5Large Cap Integrates Mid Cap Producers Midstream/Pipelines
Cenovus Energy Inc. (TSE:CVE)
Relative Stock Price Chart
Comparables Table
• O’Regan
• O’RaCVE, HES SU XOM HSE CVXegan
Large Cap Integrates Mid Cap Producers Midstream/Pipelines 6
Large-Cap Integrates Comparables
7
Overview
• SKINGLE
Stock Price Chart
• SKINGLE
Operating Highlights News & Market Sentiment
• SKINGLE• SKINGLE
Large Cap Integrates Mid Cap Producers Midstream/Pipelines
MEG Energy Corp
8
Overview
• SKINGLE
Stock Price Chart
• SKINGLE
Operating Highlights News & Market Sentiment
• SKINGLE• SKINGLE
Large Cap Integrates Mid Cap Producers Midstream/Pipelines
Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TSE:TOU)
9
Overview
• Rahim
Stock Price Chart
• Rahim
Operating Highlights News & Market Sentiment
• Rahim• Rahim
Large Cap Integrates Mid Cap Producers Midstream/Pipelines
Rahim 1
10
Overview
• Rahim
Stock Price Chart
• Rahim
Operating Highlights News & Market Sentiment
• Rahim• Rahim
Large Cap Integrates Mid Cap Producers Midstream/Pipelines
Rahim 2
Relative Stock Price Chart
Comparables Table
• O’Regan
• O’Regan
Large Cap Integrates Mid Cap Producers Midstream/Pipelines 11
Mid-Cap Producers Comparables
12
Overview
• Attiq
Stock Price Chart
• Attiq
Operating Highlights News & Market Sentiment
• Attiq• Attiq
Large Cap Integrates Mid Cap Producers Midstream/Pipelines
Attiq 1 (TRP?)
13
Overview
• Attiq
Stock Price Chart
• Attiq
Operating Highlights News & Market Sentiment
• Attiq• Attiq
Large Cap Integrates Mid Cap Producers Midstream/Pipelines
Attiq 2 (ENB?)
Relative Stock Price Chart
Comparables Table
• O’Regan
• O’Regan
14Large Cap Integrates Mid Cap Producers Midstream/Pipelines
Pipeline Comparables