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Energy retrofitting in Scotland: skills and the supply chain
Agenda
12.00 – 12.45:Lunch
12.45 – 13.00: Welcome & introductions
13.00 – 14.00: Session 1: what skills exist and what more will be needed?
14.00 – 14.15: Break
14.15 – 15.15: Session 2: who is part of retrofitting supply chains?
15.15 – 15.45: Discussion
15.45 – 16.00: Close
Session 1:
What skills exist and what more will be needed?
Exploring the requirements of skills and the supply chain for Energy Efficient Scotland
Recommendations from the Short Life Working Group
Ian Cuthbert
Quality, Skills & Consumer Protection
Short Life Working Group
Recommendations
Quality Skills & Capacity
Consumer Protection
Procurement Non-Domestic
Recommendations
QUALITY• Need to define what success looks like.
• Quality assurance criteria needs to be developed linked to new Quality Mark.
• Any criteria should be fair, proportionate and not cost prohibitive to SMEs.
• A new designer role should be considered.
• Independent inspections must be carried out
Recommendations
SKILLS AND CAPACITY• Suppliers must meet appropriate skills and
competency requirements with a skills matrix developed for the Programme.
• A mobilisation plan for developing skills should be developed and communicated to suppliers.
• The Programme should be well advertised to suppliers.
Recommendations
CONSUMER PROTECTION• There should be a clear, simple well defined
complaints process.
• There should be data sharing between key agencies.
• There should be an awareness raising campaign about the Programme.
Recommendations
PROCUREMENT• Scottish Government should work with partner
organisations to bolster existing guidance for SMEs.
• Scottish Government should consider developing guidance for buyers including local authorities.
Recommendations
NON-DOMESTIC• Work to identify improvement targets for non-
domestic buildings should be fed into ongoing supply chain activity.
• Examine the need for qualification and skill requirements for installers working on non-domestic buildings.
Consistency and quality of EPC ratings and future energy assessment
Dr David JenkinsUrban Energy Research Group
School of Energy, Geosciences, Infrastructure and Society,
Heriot-Watt University
An assessment of consistency� The “Performance Gap” of energy
assessments is well-documented� Modelled energy demand is rarely similar to
energy bills of buildings� Consistency is often assumed within a
standardised framework� But is that true?� And what happens when we ask for “more” of that
assessment (and assessors)?
“Mystery Shopper” exercise� Commissioned by Department of Energy and
Climate Change (DECC) ~2014� What happens when the same properties are
assessed by different assessors?� Householders sign up to receive multiple energy
assessments from different assessors� Investigate consistency of Green Deal (GD) and
EPC assessments across an identified sample� Indicate reasons for any identified variability by
looking at three stages of assessment
How GD assessments work(ed)� Energy Performance Certificate
� An assessor generates results of a standardised EPC for a “typical” occupancy (RdSAP model)
� Green Deal Occupancy Assessment� Results altered to account for specific occupancy
of that dwelling� Number of people� Showers/baths/fridges/freezers� Use of energy billing information
� Recommendations are provided following both analyses
Sample size� A relatively small sample of households took
part� Part of a slightly larger sample (48) involved in a
“customer journey” survey� 29 households assessed by four registered GD
assessors� A fifth assessment was carried out by an
independent assessor (CADS) as part of the project team
� Results must be placed in context of sample size� But 145 assessments still provided a revealing picture...
Data sources� Assessments registered on central GD
Oversight and Registration Body database, including:� EPC inputs and results � Occupancy Assessment (OA) inputs and outputs� Summed post-OA improvements
� Mystery Shopper questionnaires
Respondents satisfied...
Respondents satisfied...usually....
“He [the assessor] rushed through the assessment. He
started drilling holes in my outside wall without telling me he
was going to do that or why. The only recommendation he
made was the loft insulation, despite my boiler being 15 years
old and I did not have cavity wall insulation or energy saving
bulbs.”
-
Quote from householder
Format of quantitative results
0
MaximumValue
Minimum Value
MedianValue
CADsValue
DCBA
E
F
G
Variations in EPC results
Average range = 11.1ratings points
Nearly two thirds of households showed variation across two or more energy bands
Variations in EPC space heatingAverage range = £355/year
Older buildings more variable?
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
12 21 6 18 20 23 3 7 19 8 26 14 15 25 10 17 28 13 4 5 16 27 9 11 1 22 24 29 2
RangeofEPC
ratin
gs
DwellingID
Pre-1900
1900-1929
1930-1949
1950-1966
1967-1975
1976
-198
2 1983
-199
019
96-200
2
Occupancy Assessment – thermostat temperature
Mean range = 2.1°C
13 dwellings had a difference of 3°C or more
Other OA inputs – lack of agreement?
Num
ber o
f dw
ellin
gs w
here
all
asse
ssor
s ag
reed
Further signs of assessor interpretation becoming more of a factor
Are these important compared to other factors?
Crucial
Differences in type of measure (GD)
Improvements A1 A2 A3 A4 CADS
Loft insulationFloor insulation
Ground source heat pumpSolar water heating
Hot water cylinder insulation
Door insulationSolar PV
0
1
2
3
4
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
No.o
fassessorswho
asked
forb
ills
DwellingID
Source of disagreements – did they ask for energy bill data?
In 21 of the 116 assessments, bills were not asked for
Questions from study� Did errors occur due to lack of knowledge
rather than guidance?� Is the problem the methodology or those applying
the methodology?� Green Deal/OA required assessors to make
even greater level of judgement for inputs� Differences between OA and EPC approach might
have caused confusion� What level of building modelling expertise should
be required for this judgement?
� Assessor asked for depth of LI and CWI in a stone-walled house with no loft
� DG and SWI recommended for a house with DG and SWI already present
� Thermostats recorded in homes without thermostats� One assessor refused to use energy bill data provided
as it was “online”� Householder told that a technology was not possible
(e.g. SWI) but this was then included in the report� Building orientation repeatedly incorrect
Evidence of clear errors and mistakes....
What might we conclude?� Did GD push this form of modelling too far?
� Focussed on bill predictions rather than “energy compliance”
� This form of “steady-state” model has very little empirical validation even for standard EPCs
� More general problems with energy modelling are magnified by GD – but perhaps already existed?
� Assessors can become accredited after 7-9 days training� Is this sufficient? Does it explain variation in
quality/knowledge of assessors in the sample?
� A common (and intuitive) argument:� Retrofits must be justified by projected future
energy savings� Energy savings have to be tailored to households
(i.e. reflecting real behaviour)� Energy assessments (e.g. RdSAP) must account
for occupancy parameters� This will provide more accurate energy bill
estimations and more reliable savings projections for the occupant
Why is this still important?
Do they?
But we want to upgrade our building stock regardless of who ends up living there?
Shouldn’t we firstly judge whether those models are suitable for using those “new” inputs?
There is very little evidence of this – yet we might give the households a false impression of this
The role of EPC assessments for retrofit� What are we trying to promote and do we need
EPCs to do that?� e.g. loft insulation can be recommended on the
back of ~3 questions� What measures require more robust modelling?
� But which of these are not reliably modelled by current compliance modelling?
� What skills do we need for all of the above?� “Tailored” does not mean more accurate, and this
is not likely to be understood by a householder
Understanding Local Supply Chains
Louise Cox
Economic Development
Scottish Borders Council
Welcome to Scottish Borders Council
Key Energy Issues – large area, very rural • Housing stock – largest town 15,000 residents, older
properties, stone built, significant off-gas, 31% fuel poverty, huge need for very costly upgrades
• Business premises very varied – some modern purpose built, lots of small workshops, town centre retail, increasing home based businesses
• Local home insulation programme – HEEPS:ABS across the Scottish Borders
• No ability to engage with local contractors • No business need to increase skills/diversify – unclear,
limited market
• Feed-in Tariff – focus on PV/biomass, unclear limited market
scotborders.gov.uk
Welcome to Scottish Borders Council
Early Actions 2006 - Scottish Borders Sustainable Energy Association/Borders Energy Agency • Network of local energy businesses and public bodies
• Engagement and awareness of opportunities
• Open events inc. annual conference
• Identification of issues/barriers and lobbying
www.scotborders.gov.uk
Welcome to Scottish Borders Council
Early Actions Scottish Borders Low Carbon Economic Strategy – ‘To develop a
workforce equipped with low carbon skills and awareness’
• Assess Energy Skills Gap - Skills Development Scotland/Borders College
• Business engagement – suppliers, installation & maintenance
• Registered Social Landlords – key clients, EESSH targets
• Identify training need - Low Carbon Skills Fund/ Individual Learning Accounts
www.scotborders.gov.uk
Welcome to Scottish Borders Council
Peebles Scotland's Energy Efficiency Strategy Pilot –Non-domestic support • Awareness and Engagement focus - domestic and non-
domestic properties
• Business Referrals to Resource Efficient Scotland
• Supply Chain study – Nautilus consultants – individual interviews with construction sector businesses in Peebles, compiled business listing, survey and workshop
• Key findings – limited engagement in energy efficiency works, word of mouth recommendations, restricted up take of training
scotborders.gov.uk
Welcome to Scottish Borders Council
Challenges and Barriers
• Communication is primarily word of mouth for local trades
• Clients demand for energy efficiency is not clear
• Lack of scale, time and finance to invest in energy efficiency
• Red tape and administrative burden are a disincentive
• Lack of information on energy efficiency for local small businesses
• Energy efficiency is part of what tradespeople do, and is not the specific focus
• Impractical building standard regulations concerning energy efficiency for older buildings
scotborders.gov.uk
Welcome to Scottish Borders CouncilRecommendations
• Minimise red tape and administrative burden for small businesses
- streamline procurement procedures - reduce administrative burden of frameworks- Green Deal and Constructionline review
• Strengthening capacity of the local businesses- improve communications/relationships - support access to training/upskilling - identify business devt. needs for construction- support for administration & accreditation
• Specify the scope of the market for energy efficiency upgrades
- Affordable Warmth Strategy- EESSH, PRS, Self-funded
scotborders.gov.uk
Welcome to Scottish Borders Council
Recommendations
• Better information and finance for end users - strengthen and simplify the messages- increase understanding of benefits - improve awareness of routes and costs- ease access to support – local trades - ‘Trusted Traders’ schemes
• Specific messages for consumer groups - identify key drivers for different groups- engage through local & social networks - embed energy issues in wider service delivery - Changeworks in Peebles pilot findings
scotborders.gov.uk
BREAK
Session 2:
Who is part of retrofitting supply chains?
NetworkBrokerageinSupplyChains
Implicationsofoutsourcingforinnovativeenergyretrofit
Henry Myers & Dr Faye WadeHeat and the City Team, University of
Edinburgh
EnergyEfficientScotland• LathamandEganreports:needtodevelop
supplychainintegrationandinnovation
• Supplier-sidecomplexity:• whole-houseapproachesrequirecooperationof
specialists• unclearaboutthepresenceofskillsand
expertiseinmarkettodeliverenergyefficienttechnologiesinolderbuildings
• partneringstrategiesstillemerging
• Client-sidecomplexity:• residentialandnon-residential• multi-ownershipbuildings• historicallylistedstock;thirdsectorinvolvement• diversedemandsandinterests
EnergyEfficientScotland:supplychainchallenges
• Uncertaintyandcomplexity inthesupplychaincanmeanunforeseenrisksandcosts
– Hiddentransactioncostscanmakeupto30%totalcostsinEnergyEfficientRetrofittingprojects(Mooreetal,2018)
– Complexitycanaccountfor25%ofmanufacturingexpenditures(Aelker etal.,2013)– Hiddenrisks/costsdifficulttomanagethroughcontractualmechanisms– Certainactorsbearhigherriskofincurringsuchcosts(NetworkBrokers,ProjectLeads,
SMEs)
• Suchrisks/costsmaydiscourageSMEsfromparticipating inEnergyEfficientScotland
• SocialCapital helpsmitigatetheriskofhiddencosts.
Method:SocialNetworkAnalysis(SNA)
• SocialCapital– Thecapacityforcooperation,power,&influenceinsocialnetworks– Formedthrough iterativecommunication,sharedvaluesandgoals,and
trust
• SocialNetworkAnalysis(SNA) isatoolforanalysingsocialcapitalbymeasuringtherelationshipsandstructureofanetwork
• Constructionsupplychainsaretemporarynetworks– Differenttypesofties:contracts;communication;sharedinterest;trust– Differenttypes ofactors:Contractors,clients,consultants,government– Highinterdependence: ineffectivecooperationmayaffectwholenetwork– Howdoeseffectivecommunicationandcoordinationoccur? Brokers!
SupplyChainBrokerage
• DefinitionofBrokers:
– Position:Actorsthatconnectotherwiseunconnectedactorsinanetwork– Role:Crucialforfacilitatinginformationexchangeandcoordination
• Theirroleispronouncedwhenmediatingbetweendifferentgroups,suchaspublic,private,&thirdsectororganisationsorclientsandcontractors.Theyactas“translators”tomakedifferentinterestsandmeaningsmutuallyintelligible.
– Theybearsignificantriskofincurringtransactioncosts.Onthefrontlineofconflicts.
• SupplyChainBrokerscomeindifferentforms(GouldandFernandez,1989):
• WedonotknowtheimpactthatBrokershaveonsupplychainsforenergyefficientretrofitting– Helpful?Facilitatingcommunication,coordination,innovation,andintegration?– Harmful?Bottleneckingandcontrollingcommunication,engaginginopportunisticbehaviour?
Method:DataCollection
• Semi-structuredinterviews:– Snowballsamplingapproachtounderstandshapeofnetwork
• Emergentthemesandquestions:– Howdodifferenttypesofcommunicationbrokerageresultinexperiencesoftrustandsocialcapital?– Howdo thesedifferentexperiencesofsocialcapitalaffecttransactioncostrisksandcoordination?
• Interviewscodedand“translated”intoSNAmeasures:– 3typesofties:Contracts;Communication;Trust;– NetworkDensity:Levelofsupplychaincohesion/fracturing– BetweennessCentrality(allties):Measuresbrokeringactivity– DegreeCentrality(Trust):Whoismosttrustworthy
CommunicationNetwork
Actor Betweenness
ProjectLead 69.357
GrantAdministrator 6.458
Client 5.306Communication Betweenness = Brokerage
TrustNetwork
Trust = Social Capital
Actor TrustCentrality
ProjectLead 9
Client 1
Grant Administrator 2
NetworkExperiences• “[ProjectLead]I’mentirelycomfortablewith.[TheGrantAdministrator]Irecognisethey’vegot,
it’sallaboutwhatpeople’sinterestis.Irecognisethey’vegotavestedinterestincertainaspectsofthis.Theirpriorityisnotus….SoitjustgoesbacktowhatIwassayingearlier,Ithink[ProjectLead]gotsuchahugestakeinthisintermsoffuturebusinessandpotentialbadreputationifitdoesn’tgowellsoIcouldrelaxandI’mconfident….[TheGrantAdministrator]isadifferentkindofbeastandsoithastobetreateddifferently.soI’mabitlesscomfortablewiththem…”(TheClient)
• “[theGrantAdministrator]holdsthebudgetsoforsomereasonwe’veneverbeentoldwhatitis…We’veneverseenorwe’veneverbeeninvolvedinanydiscussionswithScottishGovernmentor[LocalAuthority]…buttheyalwayskindofkept[programspecifics]tothemselvesandwehaven’tseentheiroriginalfundingapplicationso…sometimeswe’lltakethingsoutoftheprojectfromafundingpointofviewor[Client]interestpointofview…butthenitwasfedbackthatactuallythatwaspartoftheoriginalfundingapplicationandsoourabilitytodomuchto…managethatwas[affected],”(ProjectLead)
Discussion:BrokerageandSocialCapital
• Whenbrokersshareriskandhavealignedinterestswithotheractors,theserelationshipsgiverisetotrust,confidence,andmutualunderstanding.Theseformssocialcapitalhaveknock-oneffectsforretrofittingsupplychains.
• Whenbrokersdonotshareinrisk(don’thaveskininthegame)orhaveunalignedinterests,theycandeterioratetrust,generatesignificanttransactioncosts,reducenetworkperformance,anddiscouragerisk-averseSMEsfromenteringtheenergyefficientretrofittingmarket.
• Greatertransparencyincommunicationplaysanimportantroleinbuildingsocialcapitalandtransformingbrokerswhopreventsupplychaincohesionintobrokerswhofacilitateit.
• Whenprocuringsupplychain,attentionshouldbepaidtotheeffectthatanincreasednumberofclient-sidestakeholdershasonthelevelofuncertaintyandriskinaproject.Theimportanceoffindingbrokerswhohaveavestedinterestinaprojectandwhocancommunicateeffectivelywithbothindustryorganisationsandclientsshouldnotbeoverlooked.
Developingatrustedtraderlisttoengageprivateowners&businessesinretrofit.
DiarmidTurnbull
20th June2019
Contents
Ø BackgroundØ EnergyAgencyØ EESPilotProgramme
Ø DevelopmentofAccreditedInstallerListØ Research,vetting&marketing
Ø Resultssofar
Ø Barriersandchallengesfaced
Ø Lessonslearned&futuredevelopment
The Energy Agency
Ø Registeredenergyefficiencycharity.
Ø OperateacrosstheSouthWestScotland.
Ø Aimtoreduceenergyconsumptionandpromotesustainabilitytoreducecarbonemissions.Ø Freeandimpartialadvicetohouseholders, businesses, communitygroups.Ø EnergyEfficiency, renewabletechnology, sustainabletransport.
LocalAuthorityPartnership
Ø ManageScottishGovernment-fundedprogrammes&contracts.Ø HomeEnergyScotland.Ø LocalAuthority partnership.
Ø HEEPSABSØ ManageonbehalfofSouthAyrshire,EastAyrshireandDumfries&Galloway
councils.Ø Solidwallinsulation installedinover6000hard-to-treatproperties.Ø Skill&experienceofsupplychainhasamajorimpactonsuccess.
EESPilotOverview
Ø ManagementoftwoEESpilotprogrammes:Ø EastAyrshireandDumfries&Galloway.Ø SouthAyrshire.
Ø AimsofEESpilotprogrammes:Ø Testappetitewithinself-funding sectortoinvestinenergyefficiency.Ø Provideabespoke ‘handholding’ adviceserviceinpartnership withHES&RES.Ø Developanaccreditedinstallerslistforhouseholders/SMEs.
EESJourney
IdentifyTarget
Engagement
Pre-InstallEPC
AdviceVisit
HESCall
PostEPC
PostInstallVisit
PurposeofAccreditedInstallerNetwork
Ø Providealevelofqualityassuranceandconsumerprotection.Ø Throughdelivering anetworkof trustedandreliableinstallers.
Ø Markethasbeenbadlyaffectedbycoldcalling,misinformation andpoorworkmanship.Ø Thereforenetworkshould givehouseholders confidencewhenselectinganinstaller.
Ø Provideamatrixallowinghouseholdertoselectaninstallerbasedonpersonalrequirements.Ø Pilotprogramme– testandevaluatewhattypesofinstallersarepopular–
smalllocalserviceorlargewell-knownbrand.Ø Displayedasasearchtool– allowhouseholder tosearchbasedontheir
personalrequirements.
Accreditations
Ø Firstlevelofqualityassurance– ensurecontractorisaccredited/qualified tocarryoutwork.
Ø Challenge:Largenumberofdifferentaccreditationandtradebodies.Ø Eachprovidingvaryinglevelsofvetting&consumerprotection.Ø E.g GasSafe legal requirement,othersbeneficial butnotessential.
Ø Requirement: Installerrequiredtoholdatleastonerelevantaccreditation.
Ø Followingaccreditationsessential:Ø Gascondensingboiler– GasSafe.Ø Complexinsulationmeasure– PAS2030:17.Ø Renewable technology– MicrogenerationCertification Scheme.Ø CloselyalignedwithHEEPSloaninstallercriteria.
Ø Mostbodieshavecomplaintsprocedureorarbitrationservicefordisputes.
InstallerResearch
Ø ResearchedInstallersthroughfollowingchannels:Ø Accreditationwebsites.Ø Tradebodymemberships.Ø Existinginstallerrelationships.
Ø Vetting:Ø Around300AccreditedInstallersscoped– then filteredbycustomerreviews.Ø Installermusthave90%positivereviewstobeconsidered.Ø Holdatleast3customerreviewsleftacrossdifferent reviewsites.
Ø AccreditationSitesØ TradebodymembershipsØ Existinginstallerrelationships
Accreditation SourcedFrom Comments ReviewSitescheckedGasSafe,TrustMark GasSafe Largecompany,mainlypositivereviews. GooglereviewsGasSafe,Trustedtrader, OFTEC,SNIPEF GasSafe Lotsofpositiveratings- trusted trader Reference line,facebook.GasSafe GasSafe Mainlynegativereviews Yell,googlereviewsGasSafe GasSafe MixedReviews Yell,GoogleGasSafe,SNIPEF,OFTEC,Trusted Trader TrustedTrader Mainlypositive,trusted trader Referenceline, yellGasSafe GasSafe Verypositivereviews- including forinstalls Boiler guide,mybuilder, facebookGasSafe GasSafe Positivereviews Facebook,googlereviewGasSafe GasSfe Only1Reviewbutpositive. YellGasSafe GasSafe Only2Reviewsbutpostitive GoogleGasSafe,SNIPEF,OFTEC,Trusted Trader GasSafe Excellent reviews. Referenceline, Google,YellGasSafe,Trusted Trader GasSafe Workswith Anne- positivereviews,trusted trader. Reference line,trust pilot, googlereviews.GasSafe,OFTEC,Trusted Trader TrustedTrader Workswith Anne- Positivereviews,trusted trader. Reference line,Yell
GasSafe,Trusted Trader TrustedTraderQuiteabitofworkwithAnne,sherates,positivereviews,trusted trader. Facebook,Yell,referenceline
Vetting- TradingStandards
Ø Potentialfurthervettingmethodsofapplicants:Ø Financialhistory,consumercomplaints, interviews.
Ø Barriers:Ø Resource&timetoinvestigateeachinstaller.Ø Accesstodatabase&recordstocarryoutthislevelofvetting.Ø Complexapplicationprocesscouldbeprohibitive toqualityinstallers.
Ø TradingStandards:Ø Looked toenlistthehelpofTradingStandards– haveexperienceofcarrying
outthislevelofvettingandhaveaccesstorecords.Ø TradingStandardsmanageTrustedTradersSchemeineachLocalAuthority–
verylimitednumberofenergyefficientinstallersregisteredasTrustedTraders.Ø Sharedgoals– consumerprotection,promotion ofreputabletraders.
Vetting- TradingStandards
Ø Proposal:WorkinpartnershipwithTradingStandards.Ø TradingStandardsassistwithvettingprocessandwewouldcrosspromote
installerstoboosttheirnumbers.
Ø Issues:Ø AdditionaltimeandpressureonTradingStandardsresources.Ø TrustedTradersSchemeinEast/SouthAyrshirehadpaidmembership– couldcause
dissatisfactionwithexistingtradersasournetworkisfree.
Ø Workaround:Ø EncourageapplicantstoAccreditedInstallerlisttomakeaseparateapplicationto
TrustedTradersscheme.Ø Workedwell inD&Gwherenomembershipfee, lesssuccessful inotherLA’swherethereisafee.
Ø VettinginabsenceofTradingStandards:Ø Publicliabilityinsurancechecks,tradingforatleast6months&CompanyHouse
checkonfinancialinformation.
MarketingtoInstaller
Ø Promotedbenefits– whywouldinstallerswanttojoin:Ø Promote reputablebrandimage&boostcompanyprofile.Ø Specialisedandspecifictoenergyefficiencymeasures.Ø Opportunity toberetainedforfutureprogrammes.
Ø BarriersØ Highqualityinstallersareoftenalreadyverybusyanddon’t alwayshaveneed
foradditionalworks.Ø Installersusedtoworkingonlarge‘wholestreet’projectslessinterestedin
quoting forindividual jobs.
PresentingtoHouseholder
PresentingtoHouseholder
ResultssoFar
Ø 44installersregisteredforAccreditedInstallernetworksofar.Ø 24HeatingEngineers,16InsulationInstallers,2RenewablesTechnology
Installers,2EfficientGlazingInstallers.Ø Around20%ofinstallersinvitedtoapplymadeanapplication.
Ø 27householdersrequestedaccesstoAccreditedInstallerNetworkØ 65%ofhouseholders whohavereceivedadvicevisithaveaccessednetwork.
Ø 20%ofregisteredinstallersarenowmembersofTrustedTradersSchemesandhavebeenvettedbyTradingStandards.
Barriers&Challenges
Ø Resourceandexperiencerequiredtocarryoutrelevantvetting.
Ø Qualitycontrolatinstallationstage:Ø Contractbetweenhouseholder andinstaller.Ø InstallationstagenotmanageddirectlybyLocalAuthority ormanagingagentinsamewayasHEEPSABS.
ØMeasurespecific:Ø Lessinterestfrominstallersofcertainmeasurestojoinscheme.
Ø 24HeatingEngineersregisteredbutonly2renewablesandglazinginstallersregistered.Ø Lackoflocalinstallerswhoholdaccreditationtoinstallcertainmeasures:
Ø e.g.mostinstallerswhoholdPAS2030:17 forcertaininsulationmeasuresarebasedinthecentralbelt.
Lessons&ThoughtsforFuture
Ø Possibilityofastandardisedvettingprocess:Ø RelationshipwithTradingStandardsatnationallevel?
Ø QualityvsChoice:Ø Thoroughvettingprocesstoensurequalitywithoutbeingexcessive/timeconsumingandprohibitivetoapplicants.
Ø Experiencehasbeenpositive:Ø Installersandhouseholdersarereceptiveandenthusiastic.Ø Bodeswellfordevelopmentoffutureenergyefficientsupplychains.
DrKeithBakerBuiltEnvironmentAssetManagement(BEAM)Centre,GlasgowCaledonianUniversity,TheEnergyPovertyResearchinitiative,&CommonWeal
T.+44(0)7884125540E.keith.baker@gcu.ac.ukW.www.energypovertyresearch.orgTwitter:@Stumpysheep
EnergyPerformanceCertificates:AnAlternativeApproach
Outline
• Averybriefintroduction totheEnergyPerformanceofBuildingsDirective
• What’swrongwithusingEnergyPerformanceCertificates?
• Usingrealdata
• AnalternativeEnergyPerformanceCertificate
• Rethinkingfuelpovertyasacomplexproblem
• Furtherreadingonfuelpovertyandsupplychains
AverybriefintroductiontotheimplementationoftheEnergyPerformanceofBuildingsDirective(EPBD)
• EPBDrequiresEPCstobeproducedforallnewbuildingsandthosebeingsoldorrented,asofAugust2007
• IntheUK,EPCsareproducedusingtheBREDEM12modelfordwellingsandtheSBEMmodelfornon-domesticbuildingshowever,thisisadevolved responsibility,soScotlandcouldchoosetoadoptanalternativeapproach
• TheScottishGovernment’sOperatingFrameworkrequiresonly2%ofdomesticEPCstobesampled,andtheir‘validity’ischeckedagainstthe(modelled)SAPrating,notactual(measured)energyperformance
KeyquotesfromtheEPBD“Theprospectivebuyerandtenantofabuildingorbuildingunitshould, intheenergyperformancecertificate,begivencorrect information abouttheenergyperformanceofthebuilding andpracticaladviceonimproving suchperformance.”
“Theenergyperformanceofabuildingshallbedeterminedonthebasisofthecalculatedoractualannualenergy thatisconsumed inordertomeetthedifferentneedsassociatedwith itstypicaluse”
“Whensettingenergyperformancerequirements fortechnical buildingsystems,MemberStatesshoulduse,whereavailableandappropriate,harmonised instruments,”
What’swrongwithusingEPCs?
“ThecurrentEPCprocesswasdesigned toproducean
assetratingtocomplywiththerequirementsoftheEPBD.
Whatmayhavebeensufficientasageneralmeasureof
energyperformance,usingasimplifiedenergymodeland
anAtoGbandingmaynotbeappropriate ifthesame
systemisutilisedtoregulatecompliancewithenergy
efficiencystandards inexistingbuildings”.
AlembicResearch,EnergyActionScotland,&DrPatrickWaterfield,2019.AReviewofDomesticandNon-DomesticEnergyPerformanceCertificatesinScotland.ReportfortheScottishGovernment.
ButusingEnergyPerformanceCertificatestodrive
mandatoryimprovementstodwellingsisakey
partoftheScottishGovernment’sEnergy
EfficiencyStrategy,whichaimstoeliminate
energyinefficiencyasadriverforfuelpoverty,so
surelytheymustbeareasonablemeasureof
success?
Sorry….
Real dataversusEnergyPerformanceCertificates
“FutureFit hasfoundthatSAPisnotanaccuratemodellingtoolforexistinghomes”
Studybasedon150homesacrossEngland,meteredenergydataandmonitoredinternalandexternaltemperatures,preandpost-intervention.
Source: JonesLangLaSalle,2012.ATaleofTwoBuildings:AreEPCsatrueindicatorofenergyefficiency?.BetterBuildingsPartnership.
It’sonlyamodel!!!!
Modelsarebuiltonassumptions
“Realdatamayalsoenablemoreextensive
validity-testingofsomekeyassumptions made
inestimations offuelpovertyprevalencewhich
derivefromtheUK’sapplicationofthe
BREDEMmodel.”
Bramley,G.,Fitzpatrick,S.,Liddell,C.,&Webb,J.,2017.AnewdefinitionoffuelpovertyinScotland:Areviewofrecentevidence.ReportfortheScottishGovernment.
Modelsareinsensitive“WhileakeystrengthofBoardman’sdefinition isitsrootedness in
robustevidencefrombuildingscience,anunintendedconsequence is
thatthedefinition isinsensitive tothehumanrealitiesofbeingfuel
poor,whicharediverseinbothoriginandsolution (Mould&Baker,
2017a).Consequently,Scottish discourse relatedtoenergy
vulnerability focusesonalternativeconcepts suchasexposuretofuel
poverty,sensitivity toitsimpacts,andahousehold’sadaptive
capacitiesforcopingwith it(e.g.MouldandBaker,2017b).”
Bramley,G.,Fitzpatrick,S.,Liddell,C.,&Webb,J.,2017.AnewdefinitionoffuelpovertyinScotland:Areviewofrecentevidence.ReportfortheScottishGovernment.
Usingrealdata
• Todate,8studiesofsocio-economicinfluencesonhouseholdenergyconsumption/expenditureusingreal datahavebeenconductedintheUK
• Weclaimthefirst(LeicesterandSheffield), thefirstinScotland(theRenfrewshirestudy),andthefirsttolookspecificallyattheimpactoftheurban/ruraldivide(ProiseactSpéird).
• Themethodologies forallthreestudiesweredeliberatelydesigned toavoidtheneedforadditionaldatacollectionbeyond thatalreadyavailabletocentralandlocalgovernment, and(whereverpossible) toeliminatetheuseofassumptionsandproxydata.
• Makinggreateruseofrealdataisoneoftherecommendationsmadeinthe2017academicpanelreviewofthefuelpovertydefinition commissionedbytheScottishGovernment.Sofar,ithasbeenrejected.
Whatdoesreal datatellus?
Totalfloorareaisastrongpredictorofenergyconsumption
Datafor154householdsacrossthreegroupsofhomogenous(enough)dwellings inLeicester andSheffield.Thethreeclustersarestatistically significantgroupsofhigh,mediumandlowenergyusers(note:inreverse order).InthisstudyTFA(evengroupedto20%bands)wasfoundtoexplain~49%ofthevariationinenergyconsumption.
Source:Baker,K.J.,2007.SustainableCities:Determiningindicatorsofdomesticenergyconsumption.PhDthesis.InstituteforEnergyandSustainableDevelopment(IESD),DeMontfortUniversity,Leicester,UK.
321
ElecAndGasClusters
20
15
10
5
0
Count
54321
TotFloorArea (Banded)
Whatdoesreal datatellus?
Builtformisapoor(ish)predictorofenergyconsumption
Datafor154householdsacrossthreegroupsofhomogenous(enough)dwellings inLeicester andSheffield.Thethreeclustersarestatistically significantgroupsofhigh,mediumandlowenergyusers.
Source:Baker,K.J.,2007.SustainableCities:Determiningindicatorsofdomesticenergyconsumption.PhDthesis.InstituteforEnergyandSustainableDevelopment(IESD),DeMontfortUniversity,Leicester,UK.
321
ElecAndGasClusters
25
20
15
10
5
0
Cou
nt
Bar Chart
End-terrace with passageway
End-terrace
Mid-terrace with passageway
Mid-terraceSemi-detachedDetachedHouse type
Whatdoesreal datatellus?
Thenumberofbedroomsisastrongpredictorofenergyconsumption- ?
Forthosesameclusterstherewasastrongcorrelationbetween thenumberofbedroomsandhouseholdenergyconsumption– oratleastthat’swhatwethoughtbackin2007.
Source:Baker,K.J.,2007.SustainableCities:Determining indicatorsofdomesticenergyconsumption.PhDthesis.InstituteforEnergyandSustainableDevelopment (IESD),DeMontfortUniversity,Leicester, UK.
Whatdoesreal datatellus?
Thenumberofbedroomsisapoor predictorofenergyconsumption- ?
ProiseactSpéird- Datafortotalannualenergycosts(alluses)for515householdsinheterogeneousdwellings intheOrkneyIsles(mixedfuel– includesmainsgas,mainelectricity, oil,LPG,coal,biomass,andsomemicro-renewables).
Interjection!
Butthenumberofbedroomsisonlyaproxyforoccupancy,andtheOrkneyhouseholdsarehighlyheterogeneous,soifweuseactualoccupancyandnormalisealoadofthevariablesthecorrelationwillbestronger,right?
Sorryagain….
Whatdoesreal datatellus?
Occupancy isapoor(ish)predictorofenergyconsumption
Althoughcommonlyassumedtobeastrongpredictorofhouseholdenergyconsumption,ananalysisofrealheatingcostdataforahighlyhomogeneousgroupofdwellings illustrates thedangersofassumingcorrelation meanscausation.
ProiseactSpéird- Dataformeanannualheating(only)fuelcostsfor128householdsinhighlyhomogeneousdwellingsnearPortree,Skye(metereddata,biomassDHS).
Whatdoesreal datatellus?
Ruralandislandhouseholdsnotonlyspendsignificantlymore onenergyforheating,butthedistributions ofexpenditureacrosstheurban-ruraldividearedifferenttoo
ProiseactSpéird– Dataonheatingenergyexpenditure for1,015householdsacrossAberdeenshire,ArgyllandBute,Lochaber,theOrkneyIsles,RenfrewshireandSkye
Buildingscientistshavebeentellinggovernmentsaboutthelimitationsofenergymodelsfordecades….
Forexample….AffinitySutton,2013.FutureFit:FinalReportPart2.AffinitySuttonJuly2013.Availableat:http://www.affinitysutton.com/media/364652/futurefit-quick-links-PDF-1.pdfBaker,K.J.,Mould,R.,&Restrick,S.,2018.Rethinkfuelpovertyasacomplexproblem.NatureEnergy,2ndJuly2018.DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0204-2Availableat:https://rdcu.be/2j8EBaker,K.J.,2017.RenewableHeat:Theperfectstorm?In:Wood,G.,&Baker,K.J.(eds),2017.ACriticalReviewofScottishRenewableandLowCarbonEnergyPolicy.PalgraveMacmillan,Aug2017.Baker,K.J.,Emmanuel,R.,&Phillipson,M.,2012.SupportforRPP2-HousingFutures.ReportforClimateXChangeScotland.Availableat:http://www.scotland.gov.uk/resource/0038/00389071.pdfBakerK.J.,&RylattM.,2008.ImprovingthepredictionofUKdomesticenergydemandusingannualconsumptiondata.AppliedEnergy,85,pp475-482.Beckmann,K.,&Roaf.,S.,2013.WorkshopReport:ClimateResiliencefortheScottishBuiltEnvironment.ClimateXChangeScotland.Availableat:http://www.climatexchange.org.uk/files/6113/7356/2210/CXC_Built_Env_EnablEnv_WorkshopRecommendationsReport.pdfBruhns H,SteadmanP,HerringH.2000.Adatabaseformodellingenergyuseinthenon-domesticbuildingstockofEnglandandWales.AppliedEnergy,66,pp.277-297.CAR,2009,ModellingGreenhouseGasEmissionsfromScottishHousing:FinalReport.CambridgeArchitecturalResearchreportfortheScottishGovernment.Availableat:http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2009/10/08143041/0CFS,2012.ConsumerFocusScotland’sresponsetotheScottishGovernmentBuildingStandardsDivisionConsultationson:Section63:EnergyPerformanceofNon-DomesticBuildings;andEnergyPerformanceofBuildingDirective–Recast.ConsumerFocusScotland.Availableat:http://www.consumerfocus.org.uk/scotland/files/2012/01/Consumer-Focus-Scotland-response-to-SG-Building-Stds-Consultations.pdf
Forexample….IMechE,2011.ScottishEnergy2020?InstitutionofMechanicalEngineers,London,UK.Availableat:http://www.imeche.org/docs/default-source/2011-press-releases/IMechE_Scottish_Energy_Report.pdf?sfvrsn=0Jenkins,D.,Simpson,S.,&Peacock,A.,2017.InvestigatingtheconsistencyandqualityofEPCratingsandassessments.Energy,Vol.138,1November2017,pp.480-489.Kelly,S.,Crawford-Brown,D.,Pollitt,M.G.,2012.BuildingperformanceevaluationandcertificationintheUK:IsSAPfitforpurpose?RenewableandSustainableEnergyReviews,Vol.16,Issue9,December2012,pp.6861-6878.KellyS.2011.Dohomesthataremoreenergyefficientconsumelessenergy?:AstructuralequationmodeloftheEnglishresidentialsector,Energy,36,pp.5610-5620SandersC,PhillipsonM.2006.ReviewofDifferencesbetweenMeasuredandTheoreticalEnergySavingsforInsulationMeasures.PublishedbyDEFRA,availableat:http://www.decc.gov.uk/assets/decc/what%20we%20do/supporting%20consumers/saving_energy/analysis/insulationmeasures-review.pdfUKGBC,2010.Zero-CarbonNon-DomesticBuildings.UKGreenBuildingCouncil,March2010.Watts,C.,Jentsch,M.F.,&James,P.A.B.,2011.ImplicationsofEnergyPerformanceCertificatesfortheUKdomesticbuildingstock– FeedbackfromaSouthamptonhomeownersurvey.CIBSETechnicalSymposium,DeMontfortUniversity,Leicester,UK– 6thand7thSeptember2011.Wright,A.,2008.Whatistherelationshipbetweenbuiltformandenergyuseindwellings?EnergyPolicy,Vol.36,Issue12,December2008,pp.4544-4547.
Arewehavingfunyet?
Realdata– greatfunforresearchers,butnotsomuchfunforpolicymakers
SowhatcanwedoaboutEPCs?
• Businessasusual- carryonbelievinginthevalidityofEPCsintheircurrentform,failthefuelpoor,andgetreadyforlegalactionwhenmandatoryupgradingisbroughtin(asitshouldbe)
• Keeppluggingawayatimprovingtheexistingmodelling– andwatchthosecostssteadilyaddupwhilstgettingonlyincrementallyclosertowhatrealdatacantellustoday
• DevelopbespokeScottishdomesticandnon-domesticbuildingmodels– atahuge(prohibitive)costtothepublicpurse
• Ormaybeit’stimetorethinktheapproach?
Inlate2018wepublishedafullcritiqueofEPCsandourproposalsforanalternativeapproachthatisbetteralignedwiththerequirementsoftheEU’sEnergyPerformanceofBuildingsDirective.
See:https://commonweal.scot/library/energy-performance-certificates-an-alternative-approach/
AnAlternativeDomesticEPC
• ItisentirelypossibletoconstructanalternativeEPCthatmeetstheboththerequirementsandtheintentionsoftheEPBDwithoutresortingtomodelleddataontheenergyconsumptionofanexistingbuilding.
• Foradomesticdwellingthiswouldreplacethismodelleddatawithmeasuredenergyconsumption(and,notingthetariff,cost)asanannualfigure,andpersquaremetre,andbeforthepreviousyearasofthedateoftheinspectionunlessthepropertyhasbeenvoidforasignificantperiodoftime.ThiswouldmeettheEPBDcriterionfor‘correctinformation’.
• Inordertobe‘practical’andreflect‘typicaluse’someadditional,andsuitablyanonymised,contextualinformationonthepreviousoccupantswouldbeaddedasregardstheirhouseholdtypeandoccupancyregime,sufficientforapotentialbuyerortenanttorelatethesetotheirowncircumstances,andthereforeinferhowmuchtheirownenergyusemaydiffer.(Inreality,asmanybuyersandtenantsalreadymeetthepreviousoccupantsthismerelyformalisesanotherwisecommoninformalexchangeofinformation.)
AnAlternativeDomesticEPC
• Theproliferationofsmarttechnologiesshouldultimatelymeaninternaltemperatureswillbemonitoredbyheatingandcoolingsystems,andthedatareportedaspartofanEPC.However,inthemeantime,ownersandlandlordswouldbeencouragedtorecord,oratleastreport,thesevoluntarilyforinclusioninanEPCasafurthersteerforbuyersandtenants.
• Fornewbuild,itisinevitablethattheinitialEPCwillbebasedonmodelleddataduetotheneedforproductionpre-occupation.However,thiswouldbereplacedbyasecondEPConeyearpost-occupation,withfinancialpenaltiesappliedwheremodelledenergyconsumptionissignificantlylowerthanactualconsumption.
• The‘recommendedmeasures’sectionofanEPCwouldbesplitintotwosections,onecoveringsimplemeasures(e.g.insulation)forwhichgood(enough)Scottishdataisavailable,andtheothercoveringmorecomplexmeasures(e.g.renewableenergytechnologies)forwhichadditionalon-siteassessmentsareneeded,andwhichwouldbefilteredbyanassessor.ThedatagatheredaspartofthiscouldalsoformthebasisofaScottishforkforBREDEM/SAP.
AnAlternativeDomesticEPC
• TheapproachalsoprovidesanopportunitytomergetheScottishSustainabilityLabelwithEPCstoprovideamoreholisticsetofrecommendations(theresourceusesectionofanSSLalreadyreplicatespartofanEPCandSSLcriteriarelatedirectlytotheBuildingStandards).Thecostsofthiswouldbepartiallyoffsetbyownersself-reportingagainsttheadditionalSSLcriteria,whichwouldthenbeverifiedbyanassessoraspartofproducinganewEPC.
• NewEPCswouldberequiredforallpropertiesperiodically(e.g.every10years)shouldanassessmentnotbetriggeredbysale,rentalorextension.
• ThisalternativeapproachwouldleavethegeneralappearanceofEPCsunchangedandmeetwiththerequirementsoftheEPBD,andwouldprovideamuchmorerealisticandtangibleassessmentofenergyuseandgeneralbuildingperformancetopotentialbuyersandtenants.Itwouldalsointroduceanelementofenforcementanddiscourage‘optimistic’assessmentsofenergyperformance.
• ItisentirelywithinthepowersoftheScottishGovernmenttodothis.
AnAlternativeNon-DomesticEPC
• EssentiallythesameapproachasforalternativedomesticEPCs.
• Theavailabilityofhalf-hourlydatawouldbeusedtoprovidefullloadprofilestobuyersandtenants(wherenotdeemedcommerciallyconfidential).
• Adoptingthe‘softlandings’approachtopost-occupancyevaluationofnewbuildwouldbecomemandatory,withfullsecondassessmentsrequiredat3-5yearspost-occupation.
• AlthoughtheScottishSustainabilityLabelisnotfullydevelopedfornon-domesticbuildingsthiscouldbefinishedinparallelwithpreparingtoimplementalternativeEPCs,andifnecessarynon-domesticEPCscouldbeextendedtoincludethefullSSLcriteriaaspartoffuturerevisions.
• Again,itisentirelywithinthepowersoftheScottishGovernmenttodothis.
AndEPCsareonlyonebarrier(albeitasubstantialone)totacklingfuelpoverty
“Asacademicsandpractitionerswesharetheviewthatinanenergyrichnationitisnotacceptablethatsuchalargeproportionofhouseholdssufferdailythedeleteriouseffectsofenergyrationing,orthattheyareforcedtomanagedebtsjusttomaintainareasonablemodernstandardofliving.
Webelievewehaveadutytocontinuallyquestionourunderstandingofthismodernsocietalinequality,andthemethodsandapproacheswetaketoidentifyingandtacklingit.”
FoundingstatementoftheEnergyPovertyResearchinitiative,August2017.
ReconceptualisingFuelPovertyasaComplexProblemOurresearchhasshownhowitisentirelypossible,andsociallydesirable,toreconciletheBoardman-based(‘10%ofincome’)definitionoffuelpovertywithawidercomplexityandrisk-basedassessmentofhouseholdervulnerability.
Source:Mould,R.,&Baker,K.J.,2017.Documentingfuelpovertyfromthehouseholders’perspective.EnergyResearch&SocialScience,31,(2017),pp.21–31.
Reproducedin:Baker,K.J.,Mould,R.,&Restrick,S.,2018.Rethinkfuelpovertyasacomplexproblem.NatureEnergy,NatureEnergy,2ndJuly2018.Availableat:https://rdcu.be/2j8E
DidwementionmakingNatureEnergy?
Invitedarticle.
Baker,K.J.,Mould,R.,&Restrick,S.,2018.Rethinkfuelpovertyasacomplexproblem.NatureEnergy,2ndJuly2018.
Availableat:https://rdcu.be/2j8E
RethinkingFuelPovertyasaComplexProblem
“Fuelpovertyisahighlycomplexsocialproblemthatiscurrentlydefinedintechnicalandeconomictermsthatprioritiseenergyperformancemeasuresassolutions.Yetconsideringthewidersocietalaspectsoftheconditiondemonstrateshowadoptingdynamicrisk-basedmetricscandrivetailoredandholisticfolk-firstoutcomes.”
Source:Baker,K.J.,Mould,R.,&Restrick,S.,2018.Rethinkfuelpovertyasacomplexproblem.NatureEnergy,2ndJuly2018.Availableat:https://rdcu.be/2j8E
Redefiningsuccess
“Aneffectivepolicyorinterventionisonewhichnotonlyservestoliftahouseholdoutoffuelpovertybutwhichalsoservestoincreasetheirresiliencetothefuelpovertycondition”.
Source:Baker,K.J.,Mould,R.,&Restrick,S.,2018.Rethinkfuelpovertyasacomplexproblem.NatureEnergy,2ndJuly2018.Availableat:https://rdcu.be/2j8E
Furtherreadingonsupplychains
Tacklingfuelpovertyanddeprivationbyenablingsustainabledistrictheatingandsupplychains“Thedevelopmentoflocal,sustainablebiomasssupplychainstoprovidefuelfor
new‘Danishmodel’multi-technologydistrictheatingschemespresents
significantopportunitiestoleveragedirectandco-benefitsforjobcreation,
recreation,tourism,enhancingbiodiversity,tacklingclimatechangeandfuel
poverty,andregeneratingdeprivedruralandremoteareasofScotland.Thisis
anopportunityScotlandcannotaffordtomiss.”
JustWarmth:DevelopingequitableandsustainabledistrictheatingsystemsinScotland
Availableat:https://commonweal.scot/policy-library/just-warmth
Tacklingfuelpovertyanddecarbonisingoff-gashouseholds“Werecommendthatabanonthesaleofallnewoilandcoalboilersbe
implementedalongsidetheintroductionoftherevisedScottishBuilding
Standardsin2021.
Inordertodevelopthenecessaryinfrastructureandfuelsupplychainsnecessary
tomaximisethebenefitsofheatnetworkswerecommendtheurgentadoption
ofaDanish-styleHeatSupplyAct,whichshouldalsobeintroducedalongsidethe
revisedScottishBuildingStandardsin2021.”
Newpaper: Carbon-free,Poverty-free:HeatingoptionsforruralScotland
Availableat:https://commonweal.scot/policy-library
ThecaseforaScottishEnergyDevelopmentAgency“TheScottishEnergyDevelopmentAgencyshouldcoordinatethedistributionof
R&Dfundingandanyfundsassociatedwithstrategicplanningandovercoming
therural/urbanfueldivide,coordinateandprioritisethetrainingoftechnology
expertsinvariousdistrictheatingtechnologiesandenablewidersocialand
economicvaluethroughidentifyingprojectsthatmayofferpoorcommercial
returnsbutwoulddeliverindirectbenefits(co-benefits)totheeconomy,society,
andtheenvironment.”
PoweringOurAmbitions:TheroleofScotland’sPubliclyOwnedEnergyCompanyandthecaseforaScottishEnergyDevelopmentAgency
Availableat:https://commonweal.scot/policy-library/powering-our-ambitions
AndcomingfromCommonWealandEPRi inautumn2019….
Thecaseforapublicly-ownedScottishNationalEnergyService
Andfinally….theinevitableplugJ
Managingthedeclineoffossilfuels:TheLongGoodbye?
DrGeoffWood&DrKeithBaker(eds).PalgraveMacmillan,Oct2019.
Contributionsbyover20internationalexpertsincluding:OlafurGrimsson,formerPresidentofIceland;DrPaulDorfmanonnuclear;ProfDavidElliottoncarboncaptureandstorage;andspecialguestauthorsonRussiaandgas.
Discussion