Energy Monitor 2 - Boyden · 2 Executive Monitor Energy, Mining & Industrials Energy More than four in 10 U.S. CEOs and half of global CEOs say they are concerned about the cost of

Executive MonitorEnergy, Mining & Industrials

Volume 1 : Issue 2 : 2014

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Energy

More than four in 10 U.S. CEOs and half of global CEOs say they are concerned about the cost of energy and raw materials, and how it affects potential business, the economy and policy, according to PwC’s Global CEO Survey. The study also indicates that more than half of U.S. CEOs are planning to strengthen engagement with suppliers and with the energy, oil and gas industry in particular (79%).

Executive Summary

The energy, mining, industrials and manufacturing sectors currently stand at a crossroads. Impacted greatly by resource supply and demand and aging workforces, companies must transform their practices, innovating to succeed. Going forward, there is a critical need for agile leadership that possesses both overall operational expertise and sector-specific skills. Companies have already started to bring in new management as they face the challenges of a changing industry, a trend expected to continue in the near to long term.

Source: PwC Global CEO Survey 2013

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Industry Trends

According to the World Energy Issues Monitor, leaders and executives in the energy industry are paying attention to five global issues in 2014:

1. Energy prices and high associated volatility2. Lack of global agreement on climate change mitigation, future of CO2 prices3. Access to capital 4. Carbon capture, utilisation and storage5. Energy efficiency

Global energy demand is expected to grow by more than one third, a rate that is environmentally unsustainable, by the year 2035. This forecast has ushered in a number of changes in the industry, including companies securing their own natural resources, and a growing renewable/clean energy sector. Across other industries, CEOs have begun to invest more in natural resources, citing a lack of trust in governments to help companies secure access to raw materials, water, and energy. Companies are also investigating renewable and clean energy sources; in fact, over four in 10 U.S. CEOs plan to reduce their company’s environmental impact.

“Companies in the oil &

gas sector are growing

fast and it’s not unusual

for new multi-billion

dollar businesses to

be created in less than

three years. The result

is a spike in demand for

executives from more

mature industries who

are adept at managing in

global matrix structures

and bring leading-edge

skill sets in functional

areas outside of the

technical and operational

disciplines in which most

oil & gas businesses are

founded.”

Tom Zay, Managing Partner,

Boyden Houston

Source: PwC Global CEO Survey 2013

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Deep water and shale are primed to play a role in the next two decades; industry analysts expect offshore oil and gas production will equal on-shore production. With onshore fields tapped, players are taking note of the massive potential in the ocean. $27 billion is spent annually on subsea facilities. This figure is expected to increase to $130 billion by the year 2020. The growth in this sub-sector requires new talent and skills, not only for technicians but for upper management as well.

In addition to the availability of resources, technological advancements continue to impact the industry, as “supercomputers” make exploration much faster and easier. Supercomputers and seismic imaging data enable the pinpointing of “sweet spots” without much expensive and time-consuming drilling. By illustrating the changes in a reservoir in real time, 4D imaging technology allows companies to examine the geological characteristics of a region.

Regional Trends The U.S. is expected to produce more of its own liquid fuel in the next two decades, and import much less of its total consumption. This increase in domestic production makes the nation more independent, and enables the U.S. to export natural gas. In addition, the continued investments by the oil and natural gas industry are expected to lead to job creation in the U.S.

) )

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release Overview

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In Canada, employment in the energy sector comprises a very small portion of the country’s total employment (less than 2%), but has increased steadily in the 21st century and should continue to do so. 2014 has been a promising year for Canada, with strong commodity prices and a weak Canadian dollar. Solar energy is becoming a vital part of the energy industry in the Middle East and Africa. These areas have very high levels of solar radiation, making them ideal for solar energy harnessing and development. In addition, the Middle East has huge amounts of capital to invest into the solar industry, which would diversify local economies. In April 2014, the Sub-Saharan Africa Solar Conference convened in Accra, Ghana to discuss trends for the region and specific countries, as well as insights, case studies, best practices and risk mitigation. Clearly, the “solar revolution” is underway in this region.

Change will take root in other regions as well. Among the elemental transformations: North Africa’s “shale revolution” is expected to explode. China, India and Brazil, the first emerging markets to focus on renewable energy, will fall behind other nations in the next five years. Countries to monitor include: Saudi Arabia, which has invested $100 billion in its solar development plan; South Africa, which has committed to developing 42% of new additional capacity in renewables by 2030; Japan, which has committed to phasing out nuclear by 2040. In the next decade, countries such as Morocco, Chile, Thailand, Jordan, Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates will likely begin to focus on renewable energy, addressing resource scarcity, job creation, and national competitiveness. China and Russia, already in an “energy alliance”, are expected to strike a deal to build a natural gas pipeline between the two nations.

Clean Energy

Climate change is one of the ubiquitous topics of the past decade, and energy companies are considered the progenitors of environmental deterioration. The industry has begun to embrace renewable/clean energy development, indicating its criticalness to the industry’s future. The transition to a cleaner and more efficient energy system will be a challenge, but will save the global economy trillions in avoided fuel costs.

“Prime Minister Steven

Harper’s declaration

in 2006 that Canada

will soon become an

‘energy superpower’

with its abundance of

oil, gas and uranium is

still a work in progress.

Notwithstanding delays

as a result of emotional

pipeline debates, energy

is becoming the economic

engine of the Canadian

economy. Oil sands

investments alone will

total close to $20 billion in

2014.”

Tim Hamilton, Partner,

Boyden Canada

Source: Clean Edge, Clean Energy Trends 2014

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The call to action by the International Energy Agency has the industry on alert, and both governments and energy corporations will need to adapt accordingly. IEA Executive Director Maria Van der Hoeven has stated that electricity will play a defining role as the energy carrier that powers economic growth and development, creating many new challenges. Hiring Trends

Most executives in the energy/natural resources sector (over two thirds) express positive views about the executive job market in 2014. This sentiment is more optimistic than most other industries and is surpassed only by executives in the insurance sector. In addition, executives in the energy/natural resources sector are the most willing group to make a career move in 2014, with over nine in 10 more willing to transition to other opportunities. Regarding compensation, nearly two thirds of executives in energy/natural resources expect an increase in their total compensation in 2014, making them one of the highest groups, second only to hospitality/tourism. Remarkably, not one of the executives in energy/natural resources expects to see any decrease in their compensation. In the Middle East especially, employment and wages in the energy sector will continue to increase in 2014. “Rising levels of demand within both the green and traditional energy sectors also mean a growth in opportunities for power generation professionals…there is a significant demand for professionals in the construction and oil and gas industries”, according to Trefor Murphy of Morgan McKinley UAE.

The new focus on the clean energy sector has given emerging economies an opportunity to advance their own markets and workforce. According to E&Y, the development of different renewable technologies can be a means for creating high quality jobs and a diverse set of employment skills. This is critical for countries with a younger workforce and a rising middle class.

Mining Industry Trends A number of significant shifts in the mining industry in 2013 will shape the remainder of 2014. In general, mining companies are entering a period of change due to unstable commodity prices and shifting demand. Companies are making cost efficiency a main priority, and shareholder activism is on the rise in the sector. Company boards are seeing significant shifts and taking this as an opportunity to bring in new leaders, hoping a change in management could be a solution to potential problems. Shareholders are also calling for new management in the industry, indicating the potential for transitions at the executive level this year and beyond.

The industry saw a decreased number of deals, hitting a record low since the year 2000. The value of deals also hit a low and has been on a three-year decline since 2011. The chart on page 7 further illustrates that the mining industry has faced some significant challenges, and change is evidently necessary.

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Several related issues will continue to affect the overall business in the near term. Experts indicate that:

• Mining productivity will hit new lows• Market imbalances will wreak commodity price havoc• Companies must explore an innovation imperative• Debt will increase, deals will decrease and juniors will fight for survival• Record impairments will call capital allocation practices into question • Local community demands will ramp up • Government relations will be marked by rising hostility• A zero-tolerance regulatory environment will complicate compliance• The talent gap will sink into executive suites

Source: Automated Systems Alliance

Source: Deloitte, Tracking the Trends 2014

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Mining companies will be forced to implement significant structural changes, transforming the way they do business in general. The market is expected to rebound, but the companies that succeed in the future will accommodate this “new operational reality” and pursue innovative approaches. Again, this paves the way for executive transition and movement in upper management to facilitate the necessary changes.

Regionally, China saw a decrease in demand in 2013. However, the economic weakness in China and other parts of the world resulted in a decrease in commodity prices and pushed some into over-supply. Costs continued to rise, companies struggled with the risk of mining in more remote regions, and share prices, revenues and profits were negatively impacted. Canada saw a bad year, as did the industry overall, as metal prices fell, projects were suspended, and senior executives lost their jobs.

Latin America is a prime destination for expansion in the mining industry, as many countries are rich in mineral resources and attracting investment from many different countries. Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Chile, Venezuela, Colombia and Peru are particularly rich in mineral reserves. The industry has been very important to the region’s economic development, and this is expected to continue in the future. Further, strong demand for metals has contributed to growth in the mining industry. Because of the influx of foreign investment, companies in Latin America face a growing need for senior management more in line with new strategic and operational models. Recruiting local talent is also important as global companies expand abroad.

In the U.S., skilled mining labour is lacking and unlikely to satisfy demand over the next two decades. The workforce will be composed of both very young and very senior workers for some time. The challenge of finding and retaining skilled labour could become a problem, and may force companies to develop process improvements and new automation solutions.The Australian mining industry is significant to the country’s economy. However, this year saw an increase in job losses due to unstable commodity prices and a slowdown following

“Despite economic

uncertainty and volatile

commodity prices, mining

and metals remains a

high-performing sector

in Africa. Executive

shortages are apparent

across all levels in

the industry including

management and

technical specialists.

A key challenge is to

balance the need to

create employment,

in an era where

labour is increasingly

challenging the status

quo, with increased

margin gain through

mechanisation. Margins

continue to be squeezed,

putting innovation

and productivity

improvement high on

the agenda. Infrastructure

needs are a major

challenge, with funding

constraints resulting in

strategic realignment and

selective capital allocation

as well as collaboration in

the junior mining space.”

Fay Voysey-Smit, Managing

Partner, Boyden Sub-Saharan

Africa

Source: Deloitte, Tracking the Trends 2014

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a boom. Some companies have cut jobs only slightly, whereas other firms have completely shut down. For example, Forge Group folded earlier this year, leaving 1,300 employees jobless. In addition, the value of both coal and iron has decreased due to global oversupply. Going forward, companies will have to make difficult decisions in order to survive. A market turnaround will take a few years.

Hiring Trends

The talent gap in executive positions was cited as one of the mining industry’s major challenges in 2014. Going forward, there is a critical need for leadership to possess operational expertise and sector-specific skills. Companies have already started to bring in new management as they face the challenges of a changing industry. There are new CEOs at five of the Top 10 mining companies, and as the chart below indicates, there has been a spike in transitions overall among the Top 40 companies. With so many companies expanding into different markets, corporations need boards that are more representative of the global mining market. There is an opportunity for global companies to provide international insight and diverse perspectives from leadership that will drive international expansion strategies forward. Recruiting local talent will also be critical.

“The top echelon

of executives in the

resources sector remains

tight and those who

rank highly are often the

hardest to move. The

‘war for talent’ continues

despite the slowing of

the investment boom.

As a result, we have

not seen a significant

reduction in remuneration

levels for top performing

executives.”

Michael Catlow, Managing Partner,

Boyden Australia & New Zealand

“In addition to the

strong focus on costs,

a very important

change taking place in

the mining industry is

the need to increase

environmental awareness

and investment, including

the escalation in cost

for this requirement.

Communities are

significantly more vocal

and they are taking many

projects to court. This

has increased legal costs

and pre-approvals, which

requires a different type

of executive who now

must not only be focused

on the project and its

technical difficulties, but

also on bonding with the

local stakeholders. This

is a major change in the

executive profiles.”

John Byrne, Managing Partner,

Boyden Chile Source: PwC, Mine - A Confidence Crisis 2013

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In Canada, about 40% of the workforce is 50 years old or older, and one third of the workforce is expected to retire by the year 2022. This means that even if some older workers transition into executive positions, “the pace of worker attrition threatens both operational productivity and the leadership pipeline.” This trend is true for other countries as well.

In 2002, the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics recorded 512,300 jobs in the mining industry, which increased to 800,500 jobs by 2012. The Bureau predicts another increase to 921,700 jobs by the year 2022. While this represents a smaller increase than the previous decade, the job market will have nearly doubled in 20 years.

“Miners continue to struggle with a pronounced, sector-wide skills shortage – one that now

extends beyond traditional talent gaps. As we enter what may be a prolonged period of

commodity price volatility, the industry needs to develop different leadership skills as well

and bring in management capable of improving productivity, controlling costs and maximizing

operation returns.”

According to the SWOT analysis (below) of the U.S. mining workforce, the U.S.’s strengths include wages, security and labour. Jobs are steady and employees are paid well. However, weaknesses encompass a number of issues centring on the inability to maintain talent in the sector. These include an aging labour force, a labour gap with a lack of skilled workers, and difficulty attracting labour. Threats to the sector consist mainly of competition with other countries for skilled labour, as the Canadian and Australian sectors are set to grow by 2020, and a need for foreign labour. As many workers are nearing retirement, the industry could retain a portion of these people as instructors, to educate the future labour force and develop more skilled workers.

Helpful Harmful

Internal • Wages: Industry Top 3 in average weekly pay

• Security: Mining jobs are usually considered to be long-term and steady

• Labor: Increase in metals mining labor projected through 2022 (11K – 13K new positions per year)

• Aging Workforce: 21% gone by 2019 and 52% gone by 2029

• Labor Gap: Lack of available skilled and professional labor to fill the retirement gap

• Attracting Labor: Remote locations, dangerous work, long hours, changing work values

• Labor Fungibility: While skill sets are often similar, movement between mining sectors is infrequent

• Education: Specialty mining programs in decline since the early 1980s

External • Contractors: Contracting may buffer the mining workforce (reduce labor expansion/contraction risk, fungibility, etc.)

• Education: A portion of the retiring workforce may be available to enter the education system as instructors

• Labor Competition: By 2020, Canada will need 100K new hires and Australia will need 85K

• Contractors: A mine’s knowledge base and experience may lie outside the company

• Foreign Labor: Mining companies are considering expanding their labor pools by hiring outside the U.S.

• Health & Safety: Trying to ramp up a new mining labor force poses health and safety risks due to lack of experience

Deloitte, Tracking the Trends 2014

Source: Automated Systems Alliance, Emerging Workforce Trends in the U.S. Mining Industry

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Industrials and Manufacturing Industry Trends The industrial and manufacturing sector is seeing a slower expansion when compared with the overall economy. In the United States, the sector evidences healthy demand in 2014 - though at a slower pace than 2013. Manufacturing and construction projects were delayed because of severe weather at the start of the year, but new construction is heating up in the South. In addition, as wages rise in emerging countries where there once was cheap labour, manufacturing jobs are returning to the U.S. Lower energy prices are also luring companies to the U.S.

According to a survey of senior global industrial sector executives, the global industrial sector is “undergoing resurgence despite ongoing financial and economic uncertainty and intense global competition.” They are optimistic, and the survey results identified new strategic directions for firms:

• Less growth by acquisition; more organic growth driven by investment in core business• Investments in technology • Trend to re-shoring, with companies moving manufacturing to domestic locations

The survey also indicates a leadership shortage in the industry, which must be addressed before it has an effect on growth and profitability.

Industrial manufacturing CEOs are more optimistic in 2014, according to PwC’s annual Global CEO Survey. They worry less about the global economy now, but are still concerned about energy. In fact, seven in 10 CEOs in this industry are worried about the high or unstable costs of energy. Industrial manufacturing CEOs are also more conscious of resource scarcity and climate change, and the role these will play in the near future; six in 10 see this as a “transformative trend”, compared with just 46% of the total CEO sample.

Innovation is imperative to the growth of the industrial and manufacturing industry. The innovations in this industry have been significant over the years, in turn affecting a number of other sectors as well. This trend will continue going forward, especially since a correlation between innovation and revenue growth has been identified, providing another incentive for companies to make necessary changes. Furthermore, over nine in 10 industrial manufacturing executives agree that innovation is important to revenue growth. Executives must focus on their innovation strategy and portfolio, attract and retain top talent, be open to collaboration, and measure the return on the “innovation investment”.

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Industrial and manufacturing executives make additional predictions for this year. They believe that the top five most influential factors will include cost reduction, human resources, on-shoring, energy efficiency, and automation.

Regional Trends

The cost of manufacturing has shifted over the past decade. Until very recently, emerging markets in Latin America, Eastern Europe and Asia were considered low-cost. Now, Brazil is one of the most expensive countries, and the United Kingdom is the lowest-cost location in all of Western Europe. Mexico is now less expensive than China, and the United States and Eastern Europe have similar costs. These global shifts will affect how companies do business, where they attract labour, and where they expand in the future.

The manufacturing sector in the UK saw a good start in 2014, as increase in demand positively impacted employment levels. Activity remained solid through the spring, and output is expected to rise in the next quarter. In addition, nearly three quarters of UK-listed industrials said they expect increased M&A activity over the next year; six in 10 said they were looking at emerging markets.

“The biggest growth

sectors in our region

are manufacturing and

medical devices. In

the last decade these

companies focused their

expansion and sourcing

strategies in Asia/Pacific,

but more recently this

has shifted to Central

and Eastern Europe and

to the Americas. In this

context, executives who

can maximise operational

efficiency and seamless

processing and also meet

compliance standards are

in high demand.”

Rainer Faistauer, Partner,

Boyden Switzerland

Source: PwC, Rethinking Innovation in Industrial Manufacturing

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In India, profits and wages in the industrial sector improved since liberalization, but saw a recent drop after 2012. The industry is expected to grow by over 4% through 2015, driven by better performance in the mining and electricity sectors. China’s industrial sector growth has slowed, indicating the country’s economy is stabilizing.

The World Bank issued a $250 million loan to Ethiopia to finance the implementation of a competitiveness and job creation project. The country’s manufacturing sector is growing due to the development of industrial zones. Hiring Trends

Executives in the industrial manufacturing industry indicate that finding and retaining talent, specifically related to pushing forward innovations, is a significant challenge. As innovation is critical to the growth of this industry, recruiting the suitable talent to support transformative changes is one of the first steps to success. Executives must recognise, embrace and deliver on the requirements of “breakthrough innovators”. CEOs must reconsider the culture of their organisations and create places that attract and retain talented individuals.

“More and more companies

are finding the need to go

outside their own sectors

in order to recruit the talent

they need to successfully

navigate growth going

forward. In the energy

industry, E&P companies

are recruiting from service

companies, and service

companies are recruiting

from EPC companies

[Engineering/Procurement/

Construction]. This industry

needs a massive investment

in education of STEM

studies.”

Alicia Hasell, Managing Partner,

Boyden Houston

Source: PwC, Rethinking Innovation in Industrial Manufacturing

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In terms of their own career, many executives in the industrial and manufacturing industry express concern about finding new opportunities, as well as career growth/stagnation and staying innovative. They rank the top skills for executive success as management/motivation of people (33%), leadership (22%) and strategic thinking (21%), with sector knowledge farther behind (14%).

In the United States, employment in industrials increased by 176,000 in the first quarter of 2014, which is a 14.1% improvement since the first quarter of 2013. This upward trend began in 2011, and has been strong and steady in the U.S. Some sub-industries have seen declines, such as manufacturing employment, which can be attributed to harsh weather conditions. Still, overall, employment is growing at an above-average rate, and is expected to continue.

In the United Kingdom, the temporary/part-time labour force increased during the 2013-2014 fiscal year, which was mainly influenced by increases in light industrial, construction and office job classes.

Conclusion

Innovation will be a key word for all three industries as companies find new and strategic ways to grow, develop cleaner practices, and increase profits in the future. Executives and CEOs will play a huge role, as they guide and lead their companies through changing times. Clean and renewable energy is something to take note of, and changing geographical markets will force companies to rethink traditional outsourcing.

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