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7/31/2019 Energy Landscape in 2020; Smart and Sustainable
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Energy Landscape in 2020:Smart and Sustainable?
Roberta Gamble, Director
Energy & Power Systems
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Focus Points
Context: Mega Trends Drive Change
Global Market Dynamics
The Energy Mix
Solar and Wind Forecasts
Smart Grid Advances to Meet the Challenge
Energy in 2020
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Mega Trends Impacting the Energy Industry
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Top Global Mega Trends
Mega City
SMART Cities and SMART Infrastructure
Mega City
SMART Cities and SMART Infrastructure
Growing Middle Class
Geo Socialization
Growing Middle ClassGeo Socialization
Beyond BRIC: The Next Game ChangersEmerging Outsourcing Hotspots
Beyond BRIC: The Next Game ChangersEmerging Outsourcing Hotspots
SMART CloudsVirtual WorldWireless Intelligence
SMART CloudsVirtual WorldWireless Intelligence
URBANIZATION
SOCIAL
ECONOMY
TECHNOLOGY
Power, Water, TransportPower, Water, Transport
New Business ModelsNew Business Models
Health , WellnessAging Populations
Health, WellnessAging Populations
INFRASTRUCTURE
BUSINESS
HEALTH &WELLNESS
SMART FACTORY
SMART and GREENSMART and GREEN
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Market Trends Driving Energy
Growing
Economies,Populations
Growing
Economies,Populations
InfrastructureInfrastructure Need to for GreenerEnergy solutions
Need to for GreenerEnergy solutions
EnergyEnergy
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BRIC, N-11 Among Fastest Growing Economies
2009$32
Growth
Rate(%)
3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 25000 35000 40000
-(3.0)
-(2.0)
-(1.0)
2.0
3.0
4.0
45000
5.0
BRIC6.0
GDP ($Trillion)
2030$42.8
G-7
2009$8.9
2030
$32
2009$4.3
2030
$9.9
N-11
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Chennai
Outsourcing Hotspots of 2020
BuenosAires
Bucharest
Mexico City
Moscow
Prague
St.Petersburg
Sao Paulo
ShenzhenCairo Kolkat
a
Krakow
Beijing
Shanghai
R&D Centres
Production Plants
Engineering Services Centres
Delhi
Singapore
Rio de Janeiro
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Rise of the Middle Class in 2020:Over 1 Billion from India and China Alone
700 Million
15 Million
120 Million
140 Million
400 Million
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Stimulus Packages Target Infrastructure, Energy
Canada $26 billion
UK $4.6 billion
Germany $32 billion
USA
Estimated that over $2.2trillion is needed over next5 years for i nfrastructure
Government stimuluspackages allocates $72billion
France Constructionstimulus $6.3 billion
Italy $5 billionSpain $10 Billion
China $333 billion
Indonesia $1.17 bi llion
Australia $16.2 billion
Russia Major share of the$20 bil lion stimulus package
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Shift in Energy Consumption
North Ameri ca
32%
Latin Am erica
4%
Europe
29%
Russia
9%
Middle East
2%
Africa
3%
India
3%
Rest of Asia
13%
China
5%
North America
28%
Latin America
6%
Europe
22%
Russia
6%
Middle Eas t
3%
Africa
3%
India
4%
Rest of Asia
15%
China
13%
North Amer ica
23%
Latin America
7%
Europe
18%
Russia
5%
Rest of Asia15%
China
20%
India
6%
Africa
3%
Middle East
3%
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The Energy Mix Today and in 2020
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Top 10 Energy Technologies to Watch For in 2020
Nuclear Power
Wind
Advanced Batteries and Storage
SMART Grid
Biofuels
Fuel cellsDistributed
Geothermal
Energy
Management
Solar PV, CSP
Carbon Capture
and Storage
Top 10 Energy Technologiesof the Future
Key technologies that are poisedto have a profound impact on the
global energy industry. Theseareas represent high potential
ROI.
Key technologies that are poisedto have a profound impact on the
global energy industry. Theseareas represent high potential
ROI.
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Fuel Balance Today and in 2020
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
Solar, OtherRenewables
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2010
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
Solar, OtherRenewables
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2010
3%3%
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Why Solar and Wind?
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Solar and Wind Market Growth
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Photovoltaic Market Global Growth
CAGR33.5%
CAGR33.5%
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan
Megawatts InstalledMegawatts Installed
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Concentrated Solar Power Global Market Growth
CAGR
49.6%
CAGR
49.6%
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan
Megawatts InstalledMegawatts Installed
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Concentrated Solar Power Global Market Growth
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan
Megawatts InstalledMegawatts Installed
43%
CAGRto 2016
43%
CAGRto 2016
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Wind Power Market Global Growth
GlobalCAGR22%
GlobalCAGR22%
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan
Megawatts InstalledMegawatts Installed
US: 24%
CAGR
US: 24%
CAGR
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Solar and Wind Power Market Drivers
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Solar and Wind Power Market Restraints
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Smart Grid Connection to the Future
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Primary Objectives for Utilities by 2020
1. Increase Power Availability
-by minimizing interruptions inpower delivery
2. Improve Energy Efficiency
-by reducing waste in power delivery andenergy losses
3. Accommodate Renewable Power
-Prevent congestion on thepower lines and interruptions
4. Preparing for Growing Power Load
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Driving the Market
Supply-Side Drivers Demand-Side Drivers
Source: Frost & Sullivan.
RenewableEnergy
Need for
PowerInformation
ElectricVehicles
NetMetering
Mitigate NewBuild T&D
Respond to
EnergyLegislation
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New Business Models for Utilities
Current flow
Information flow
Distribution
Future Business Model
Electric
appliances/
devices
Customer
service
Power
generation
Power
transmission
Monitoring
Powerdistribution
Power from utility
Power
generation
End User/
Grid
Power from Distributed Generation units
Monitoring
Metering andenergy
portal
Third-party
energymanagement
services
Energy InformationServices
Current Business Model
Power
generation
Power
transmission
Electric
appliances/
devices
Customer
serviceMeteringPower
distribution
Distribution
Electricityusage bill
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Energy in 2020
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Fuel Balance Today and in 2020
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
Solar, Other
Renewables
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2010
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
Solar, Other
Renewables
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2010
3%3%
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
HydroWind
Solar, Other
Renewables
2020
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
HydroWind
Solar, Other
Renewables
2020
7%7%
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Installations of renewable energy technologies will more thandouble
Government incentives will be a big driver
Wind and other technologies will achieve increasing price
parity
Current traditional power sources will evolve: more gas,cleaner coal, expanded nuclear
The grid will have to keep up and will be an increasing area ofinvestment
Installations of renewable energy technologies will more thandouble
Government incentives will be a big driver
Wind and other technologies will achieve increasing price
parity
Current traditional power sources will evolve: more gas,cleaner coal, expanded nuclear
The grid will have to keep up and will be an increasing area ofinvestment
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FROST.COM