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Building Control and Automation Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topics Friday 12 April 2019 Dr. L. Andrew Bollinger [email protected] Urban Energy Systems Laboratory, Empa

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Page 1: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

Building Control and Automation

Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topics

Friday 12 April 2019

Dr. L. Andrew Bollinger [email protected]

Urban Energy Systems Laboratory, Empa

Page 2: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

Contents

2

1. Review of the last lecture

2. Advanced energy hub model formulations • Increasing model accuracy • Representing networks • Improving computational efficiency • Multi-objective optimization • Multi-stage optimization • Dealing with uncertainty

3. Applying energy hub modelling to real cases

Page 3: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

Review: Energy hub modelling

Page 4: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

Suurstoffi Areal, Risch-Rotkreuz, Switzerland (image source: ZugEstates.ch, Suurstoffi.ch)

4

For a given urban area/district/community…

Problem

In order to minimize costs and/or emissions, maximize autonomy, etc?

How should a distributed energy system for the site be optimally designed and operated…

4

Page 5: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

Suurstoffi Areal, Risch-Rotkreuz, Switzerland (image source: ZugEstates.ch, Suurstoffi.ch)

5

How should a distributed energy system for the site be optimally designed and operated…

Given complexities such as: • Time-varying resource availability • Multi-energy demand patterns • Technical & economic constraints • Regulatory/policy environment • Uncertainties regarding fuel prices, energy

demand, policy, etc. • Possibilities for electricity market participation

For a given urban area/district/community…

In order to minimize costs and/or emissions, maximize autonomy, etc?

Why optimization?

5

Page 6: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

6

What is an energy hub?

Grid

Gas

PV

Boiler

Electricity

Heat

Inverter

Heat pump

Hot water tank IN

PUTS

OU

TPU

TS

A system to convert between and store multiple energy streams

6

Page 7: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

7

What is an energy hub model?

Grid

Gas

PV

Boiler

Electricity

Heat

Inverter

Heat pump

Hot water tank IN

PUTS

OU

TPU

TS

A mathematical representation of an energy hub that enables optimization

What do we want to optimize?

The set of processes (energy & technological pathways) by which we transform energy inputs into outputs.

7

Page 8: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

8

What is an energy hub model?

Igrid(t)

IPV(t)

Igas(t)

Lelec(t)

Lheat(t)

Pelec(t)

PHP(t)

Pboiler(t)

Qheat(t)

Grid

Gas

PV

Boiler

Electricity

Heat

Inverter

Heat pump

Hot water tank IN

PUTS

OU

TPU

TS

A mathematical representation of an energy hub that enables optimization

Variable

Constant

Variables: Elements for which you want to identify an optimal value Constants: Elements for which you already know the value

8

Page 9: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

Energy hub formulation – typical equations

Objective function

Load balance constraint

Storage continuity constraint

Capacity constraints

Storage charge/discharge constraints

Part-load constraints

Sum of energy outputs from technologies must be sufficient to provide for demand at the given timestep

Storage inputs and outputs determine the state of charge at the next timestep.

Conversion technologies cannot produce more than their capacities. Storages must not be filled more than their capacities.

Storages can only be charged/discharged at a maximum rate.

Conversion technologies cannot produce below a given power level.

9

Page 10: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

Simulation versus Optimization

Simulation

Descriptive and aim to emulate actual energy system performance, and aid understanding. Can be developed in software programs like TRNSYS, EnergyPlus, etc. – used to simulate various types of energy systems in conjunction with energy demand modelling.

Optimization

Prescriptive and aim to provide outputs that indicate how to maximize system performance, thereby aiding decision making. Can reveal relationships, solutions, and pathways that were not obvious or initially considered.

Energy hub modeling

10

Page 11: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

Optimization Methods

11

Page 12: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

So what can we model with this approach?

12

Optimize operational variables - Conversions between different forms of energy - Storage dispatching (short-term and seasonal) - Grid interaction (peak shaving, grid services) Optimize technology selection and technology capacities - Storage and conversion selection and sizing - Initial and capacity-based costs - Energy prices & carbon factors

Represent single system bridging demand and supply - Local generation (considering renewables availability) - Time-varying loads & supply

Represent and optimize networks - Optimise the network configuration - Optimise the network type

Page 13: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

What are the limitations of this approach?

‒ Mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) approach requires maintaining linearity of constraints

‒ Linear technology models

‒ Model size scales exponentially with the number of integer variables

‒ Critical to develop models that limit the number of integer variables by minimising

‒ Time intervals ‒ Distinct consumption/generation nodes

13

Page 14: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

Advanced energy hub modelling formulations

Page 15: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

To avoid “garbage models”, we need to augment the basic energy hub concept.

Research has moved past the basic energy hub problem, and has extended it with: More accurate technical representations Representation of uncertainty Multiple performance criteria Representation of networks

Com

putational burden

We need additional methods to improve computational efficiency

Building on the basic energy hub concept

15

Garbage in = Garbage out

Page 16: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

Advanced energy hub model formulations

1. Increasing model accuracy 2. Representing networks 3. Improving computational efficiency 4. Multi-objective optimization 5. Multi-stage optimization 6. Dealing with uncertainty

16

Page 17: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

1. Increasing model accuracy

What’s the problem? Basic energy hub formulations neglect to include a number of important technical/economic properties and constraints of conversion & storage technologies. What can we do? Add further variables and constraints that more accurately represent technology operation. Specifically: 1. Minimum part load constraint 2. Maximum activations constraint 3. Minimum run time constraint 4. Ramping constraint 5. Nonlinear conversion efficiencies

17

Page 18: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

1.1 Minimum part load constraint

18

Problem: Often, conversion technologies are not capable of operating below a certain minimum load level. Solution: Add an equation restricting the minimum output of the device

Page 19: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

1.1 Minimum part load constraint

19 19

PHeatPump

PBoiler

PBoiler + PHeatPump = Lheat

PHeatPump ≤ PmaxHeatPump

PHeatPump ≥ PminHeatPump

Capacity constraint

Minimum part-load constraint

Problem: Often, conversion technologies are not capable of operating below a certain minimum load level. Solution: Add an equation restricting the minimum output of the device

Page 20: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

Doesn’t allow for zero load! (i.e. your device is always forced to be operating)

Introduce binary variable bm which at each time step sets the device as on or off.

To formulate these constraints, we use big M method, where M is any sufficiently large number.

)(min tPP mm ≤

Basic minimum part-load constraint

Modified constraint formulation

If bm(t) = 0, then If bm(t) = 1, then

1.1 Minimum part load constraint

20

When the technology is operating, output must be <= Pmin

When the technology is not operating, output must = 0

Binding constraint

Binding constraint

Page 21: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

= 0 if state remains the same

= 1 if state changes

( -1 if shutdown) (+1 if start-up)

Now Previous timestep

Problem: Frequent start ups and shut downs of certain technologies can be damaging, so you sometimes need to limit the number of start ups and shut downs that are allowed in a given time period. Solution: Add 2 binary variables: • δon/off = status change in technology operation • δi,t,CHP = current status of technology operation

1.2 Maximum activations constraint

21

Page 22: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

Maximum 4 startup/shutdowns allowed over a 24-hour time horizon

Constraint:

No Violation:

Hour 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 State (δi,t,chp) 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 Transition (δon/off) 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0

Hour 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 State (δi,t,chp) 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 Transition (δon/off) 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0

Violation:

1.2 Maximum activations constraint – Example (CHP unit)

22

Page 23: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

1.3 Minimum run time constraint

Problem: Some equipment must run continuously for a minimum amount of time, due to the nature of the process, mechanical concerns or need to maintain a reasonable efficiency. • e.g.: CHP plants and heat pumps have poor efficiency for some time after starting. Solution: • Formulate the model such that a given device must operate for a minimum

run time of tm timesteps. • Create a variable z(t) that tells you the nature of change in the device’s

operation between timesteps.

if a=0.5 and b=1:

z(t) = 0; still off z(t) = -1; start-up z(t) = -0.5; still on z(t) = 0.5; shutdown 23

Operation previous timestep

Operation this timestep

Page 24: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

1.3 Minimum run time constraint

(a) Constraint maintained

(b) Constraint violated

t = 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

P z -4 -3 -3.5 0 -1 -0.25 0.25 0.251 -1 -4 -1 -1 -1 -0.5 0 0 0

1 -0.5 0 -2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.25 0 0

1 -0.5 0 0 -2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.25 0

0 0.5 0 0 0 2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.25

t = 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

P z 0 -4 -3 0.5 -1 -0.5 0.25 0.250 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 -1 0 -4 -1 -1 -1 -0.5 0 0

1 -0.5 0 0 -2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.25 0

0 0.5 0 0 0 2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.25

Constraint:

R. Evins, K. Orehounig, V. Dorer and J. Carmeliet (2014). New formulations of the ‘energy hub’ model to address operational constraints. Energy, 73, 387–398. 24

Page 25: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

Problem: Some conversion technologies are limited in how quickly they can ramp up or down their energy output. Solution: Add a set of constraints that control the difference in energy production levels between two consecutive time intervals.

Maximum allowable amount of ramping up

Maximum allowable amount of ramping down

1.4 Ramping constraint

25

Power output this timestep

Power output previous timestep

Power output previous timestep

Power output this timestep

Page 26: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

1.5 Nonlinear conversion efficiencies

Problem: Many technologies have efficiencies that depend nonlinearly on the power output.

Solution: Linearization of the efficiency curve: 1. Define the number/ranges of segments/steps into which to divide the original curve. 2. Define a virtual “bin” for each load segment, and add a binary variable for each bin. 3. Add a constraint that says that only one bin can be active at a time. 4. Add power output constraints for each bin & set the efficiency according to the bin.

Possibilities for stepwise linearization of conversion efficiency

26

Why is this a problem?

Page 27: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

1.5 Stepwise linearization of conversion efficiencies Example: Microturbine part load curve

L1 L2 L3 L4

ηL1

ηL2 ηL3

ηL4

Binary variables: yL(t) Bins: L = {L1, L2, L3, L4}

27

“knapsack” constraint Power output constraints

Efficiency changes nonlinearly with percent load

Page 28: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

Summary - increasing model accuracy

• Minimum part load constraint

• Maximum activations constraint

• Minimum run time constraint

• Ramping constraint

• Nonlinear conversion efficiencies

28

General solution: It’s all about creating clever constraints that force your technologies to behave the way they’re supposed to

General problem: This tends to create a lot of new binary variables

Page 29: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

2. Representing networks

What’s the problem? Basic energy hub formulations aggregate all components/buildings into a single “node”, thus neglecting the influence of networks. • Networks constrain how we can move energy between buildings What can we do? Model the system as being composed of multiple hubs with network elements (links) connecting them.

29

Why is it important to consider networks?

Page 30: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

- Nodes: Sites of energy generation/consumption (e.g. buildings or groups of buildings) - Links: Flow of energy between the nodes (e.g. electricity, heat)

Representing networks – multi-hub system

30

Represent your system as a set of nodes connected by links

Each node is an energy hub in itself

The full system is represented as a multi-hub network

Page 31: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

Objective function

Load balance constraint

Storage continuity constraint

Capacity constraints

Storage charge/discharge constraints

Part-load constraints

Sum of energy outputs from technologies must be sufficient to provide for demand at the given timestep

Storage inputs and outputs determine the state of charge at the next timestep.

Conversion technologies cannot produce more than their capacities. Storages must not be filled more than their capacities.

Storages can only be charged/discharged at a maximum rate.

Conversion technologies cannot produce below a given power level.

31

Energy hub model formulation – typical constraints

Page 32: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

Modified load balance constraint:

32

Energy flowing into the node

(from node i to j)

Energy flowing out of the node

(from node j to i)

Equation to account for network losses:

Representing networks

Page 33: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

Variable: Binary variable for each possible link indicating the installation of that link

Optimizing network layout

33

Constraint: If a link is installed, then energy can be transferred via that link

Optimization problem decides which of the possible links it is optimal to install

Page 34: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

Modelling district heating networks

Network layout

List of possible connections and network layout constraints

Investment costs related to distances

Represented by binaries

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0 50 100 150 200 250

Heat

loss

(W/m

)

Cost

(EUR

/m)

Capacity (kW)

Pipe size cost

Heat losses

Operation

Pipe size correlated to the maxium heat transfer

Heat losses correlated to the distance

High temperature DH network

Sour

ce: A

rup

B. Morvaj, R. Evins, J. Carmeliet (2016) Optimising urban energy systems: simultaneous system sizing, operation and district heating network layout, Energy

34

Page 35: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

Modelling electricity distribution networks

Requires solving of power flow equations (which are nonlinear):

3 possible methods:

Linearised AC power flow

Energy hub (design +

operation)Genetic Algorithm (design)

Energy hub (operation)

Non-linear power flow

Genetic Algorithm (design)

Non-linear power flow

Energy hub (operation)

Linearised AC power flow

(a) Bi-level method (b) Linearised (c) Combined method

B. Morvaj, R. Evins, J. Carmeliet (2016) Optimisation framework for distributed energy systems with integrated electrical grid constraints, Applied Energy 35

Page 36: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

Exercise

Thermal pipe

Building 1

Building 2

• Small neighborhood with 2 buildings

• There is a 2-way thermal pipe connecting buildings 1&2

• Excess heat energy from building 1 can feed into building 2, and vice versa

• You want to represent this as a multi-hub system

• What is the heat balance equation for building 1?

Page 37: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

3. Improving computational efficiency

What’s the problem? Complex energy hub model formulations – especially with many discrete variables – become very difficult to solve using conventional MILP solvers. • MILP model size scales exponentially with the number of integer variables What can we do? Develop models that limit the number of integer variables by minimizing the number of: (1) time intervals, (2) distinct consumption/generation nodes Specifically: 1. Temporal discretization 2. Temporal decomposition 3. Spatial clustering 4. Bi-level optimization

37

Why?

Page 38: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

3.1 Temporal discretization • What time period are we interested in optimizing? • Into how many discrete time periods to we divide the

overall time period? • Every minute, hour, day, week? • Every day in the year, or just “representative” days? • How do we choose days which are sufficiently

representative?

The fewer discrete time periods you have, the simpler/quicker your optimization problem will be.

38

Page 39: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

Rolling horizon approach: • Rather than considering the whole time horizon, solve the problem for successive

planning intervals, each representing a small part of the horizon. • Reduces the size of the problem per interval, breaking down one large problem into

easily solved sub-problems.

3.2 Temporal decomposition

(a) Interval length Lint characterizes the length of one sub-problem (b) Step size Lstep is the number of periods before rolling to another planning interval (c) overlap Loverlap is the number of periods from the past interval reconsidered in the present interval (d) number of planning intervals n describes the number of sub-problems to be solved

J. Marquant, R. Evins and J. Carmeliet (2015). Reducing Computation Time with a Rolling Horizon Approach Applied to a MILP Formulation of Multiple Urban Energy Hub System. Procedia Computer Science, 51: 2137–2146

39

• Divides the problem into multiple overlapping intervals, through which the solver iterates.

• Disadvantage: Causes problems for seasonal storage scheduling.

Page 40: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

3.3 Spatial clustering & multi-scale systems

Interactions

How can the interactions between these scales be coordinated to improve overall energy performance?

• Where should energy be produced/stored and in what quantities?

• How should transactions be coordinated?

Source: Marquant, 2014

40

Computationally expensive

Page 41: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

3.3 Spatial clustering

Because: Modelling a 6 building system as 6 nodes is as computationally expensive as modelling a 36 building system clustered into 6 nodes. How to define clusters? ‒ Distance based? Or also consider load

magnitudes & patterns ‒ Which clustering algorithm? K-means

method? K-medoids method? Other method?

Disadvantage: Lose any ability to optimize within clusters.

Instead of representing each building individually, we aggregate buildings into clusters.

41

Page 42: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

3.3 Spatial clustering Example – Case study Baden Nord

42

• Which supply technologies should optimally be installed per cluster?

• How should these clusters be linked with one another?

Page 43: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

Marquant et al. (2018). A new combined clustering method to analyse the potential of district heating networks at large-scale. Energy, 156, 73-83.

3.3 Spatial clustering for optimizing DES in large urban areas

43

Identifying optimal energy hub designs and district heating network layouts in a large urban area

Page 44: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

Level of discretisationCost function:o Installation costso £ per kW / kWh / m2

Design constraints:o Maximum capacitieso PV+ST < roof area

Demand profilesSolar availabilityPlant efficienciesCarbon factorsStorage lossesOperational constraints:o Fuel cell only on/offo CHP min load 50%o HP min load 10%

Genetic Algorithm

Energy Hub

Evaluation

Inputs

Initialise

Crossover & Mutation

Selection

Capacities Emissions

Optimised population

Variables:Plant, storage and renewables capacities

Mixed Integer Linear Programme:Ax = bCx ≤ d

lb ≤ x ≤ ub

Emissions

Costs

Variables:Operational schedules

3.4 Bi-level optimization

44

• Use GA or other metaheuristic for optimizing system design; use MILP to optimize system operation

• Allows for solving complex problems more quickly (and deal with some nonlinearities), but optimality is not assured.

Page 45: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

3.4 Bi-level optimization

45

Example – Case study Empa campus

Results – Pareto front

Page 46: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

4. Multi-objective optimization

What’s the problem? Often you don’t have a clear single objective, so you need to balance amongst different objectives in optimization. What can we do? Multi-objective optimization, either by: 1. assigning weights to different objectives and optimizing against the sum

of the weighted objectives, or 2. optimizing against a single objective and iteratively constraining the

values of one or more other variables.

46

Epsilon constraint method

What are possible objectives of an energy hub model?

Page 47: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

F 1(x

)

F2(x)F2(x)≤εmaxF2(x)≤ε2F2(x)≤ε3

. . .

. . .F2(x)≤εmin

Optimal solutions by minimising F1 and satisfying constrainted F2 objective function

minimize {F1(x), F2(x)}

becomes

minimize {F1(x)} subject to the constraint that F2 (x) ≤ εa ∀a ∈ [ 1,…,n]

Multi-objective optimization – Epsilon constraint method

47

Each solution corresponds to a different value for ɛ

e.g. costs e.g. CO2 emissions

Iteratively set ɛ to different values and solve your optimization problem for each value of ɛ

Page 48: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

Multi-objective optimization – Pareto front

48

• Each solution corresponds to a different optimal system configuration. • Instead of 1 optimal solution, you have a set of optimal solutions (Pareto front) • Allows you to see the trade-offs between different objectives

Multi-objective optimization – Pareto front

Emissions (kg CO2-eq)

Life

-cyc

le c

osts

(CH

F)

Cost-minimizing solution

Emissions-minimizing solution

Intermediate solutions (different ɛ values)

“pareto front”

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5. Multi-stage optimization

What’s the problem? Sometimes we don’t want to identify a single optimal design solution, but rather an optimal sequence of technology investments over time. What can we do? Multi-stage optimization: Identify the optimal set of technologies to be installed in each of multiple stages (time periods)

49

Stage 1 (2020-2050)

1 decision point, 1 optimal set of technologies

Stage 1 (2020-2030)

Stage 2 (2030-2040) Stage n

n decision points, n optimal sets of technologies

Standard approach:

Multi-stage approach:

Decision point: Which technologies to install?

technology set

technology set 1 technology set 2 technology set 3

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5. Multi-stage optimization

What’s the problem? Sometimes we don’t want to identify a single optimal design solution, but rather an optimal sequence of technology investments over time. What can we do? Multi-stage optimization: Identify the optimal set of technologies to be installed in each stage

50

Stage 1 (2020-2050)

1 decision point, 1 optimal set of technologies

Stage 1 (2020-2030)

Stage 2 (2030-2040) Stage n

n decision points, n optimal sets of technologies

Standard approach:

Multi-stage approach:

Decision point: Which technologies to install?

technology set

technology set 1 technology set 2 technology set 3

Example results from a multi-stage case study

Stage

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6. Dealing with uncertainty

What’s the problem? Sometimes, the values of your input parameters are uncertain, and it is unclear how this uncertainty may affect outcome of your optimization. What can we do? Vary the values of input parameters and: (1) evaluate the effects of these variations, and/or (2) optimize to account for this uncertainty. Specifically: 1. Uncertainty analysis 2. Global sensitivity analysis 3. Stochastic optimization 4. Robust optimization

51

Which inputs might have some associated uncertainty?

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6.1 Uncertainty analysis

How does the output of the model vary given uncertain input parameters?

Computational model

Computational model

μσ

PDF

Probability of exceedance

Mean/std.deviation

Does uncertainty matter? How does it change the optimal technical configuration?

Deterministic modelling

Monte Carlo simulations

52

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6.2 Global sensitivity analysis

Computational model

Calculated using “Sobol indices” ‒ Quantify to what degree variation of the different input parameters influences the results ‒ First-order Sobol index, Si : contribution of parameter i only ‒ Total-order Sobol index, STi : contribution of parameter i with parameter interactions

What are the most important input parameters driving the variation of the output?

Which input uncertainties drive uncertainties in the results?

53

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6.3 Stochastic & robust optimization

How can we make better design decisions under uncertainty?

1. Stochastic optimization: • Identifies the probabilistically best solution • Requires probabilistic descriptions of uncertainty

2. Robust optimization: • Particularly useful when probabilistic descriptions of uncertainty are not available • Uses interval uncertainty sets: e.g. Gas price: 𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔 ∈ [𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔

𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚, 𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑚𝑚𝑔𝑔𝑚𝑚]

• Seeks solutions that are optimal for the worst-case realizations of uncertain parameters

54

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Advanced energy hub model formulations

1. Increasing model accuracy 2. Representing networks 3. Improving computational efficiency 4. Multi-objective optimization 5. Multi-stage optimization 6. Dealing with uncertainty

55

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Application case – Brig-Glis

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Case study Main industry partner Size of site (buildings) Type of site1 Municipal authority 10-20 Existing2 Local utility 10-20 Greenfield3 Local utility 600 Existing4 Engineering consultancy 1000+ Existing

Validation projects with industry partners

57

1. City of Zurich • Energy strategy for a mixed-use industrial neighborhood

2. St. Galler Stadtwerke • Energy concept for a greenfield commercial campus

3. Regionalwerke Baden • Redevelopment of the energy system for a city district 4. Lauber Iwisa • Energy master planning for an alpine municipality (Brig-Glis)

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1 2 3 4Network optimization thermal thermalSpatial clustering density-basedTemporal decomposition typical days typical days typical daysMulti-stage optimization 3-stageUncertainty handling scenarios scenarios scenarios

MethodologyCase study

Validation projects with industry partners

1. City of Zurich • Energy strategy for a mixed-use industrial neighborhood

2. St. Galler Stadtwerke • Energy concept for a greenfield commercial campus

3. Regionalwerke Baden • Redevelopment of the energy system for a city district 4. Lauber Iwisa • Energy master planning for an alpine municipality (Brig-Glis)

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Energy hub analysis Brig-Glis

Background: • 2008: the first energy master plan for the municipality was developed. • 2018: the municipality requested an update of its energy master plan based

on the Swiss Energy Strategy 2050, which was to review the last 10 years while also giving an updated outlook for 2035 and 2050.

Goal of the study: • To understand how different combinations of energy technologies could best

contribute to meeting the new targets.

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Energy inputs

Energy demands

Optimal energy supply system

Energy hub analysis Brig-Glis

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Energy inputs

Energy demands

Optimal energy supply system

Energy hub analysis Brig-Glis

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Energy hub analysis Brig-Glis Energy inputs

Energy supply technology options

Energy demands

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Energy hub analysis Brig-Glis Energy inputs

Energy supply technology options

Energy demands

give

n

optimize

given

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Energy hub analysis Brig-Glis Methodology – Multi-objective optimization

Emissions (kg CO2-eq)

Life

-cyc

le c

osts

(CH

F)

Cost-minimizing solution

Emissions-minimizing solution

Intermediate solutions

“pareto front”

Page 65: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

Energy hub analysis Brig-Glis Results – scenario 2017

Cost-minimizing solution

Emissions-minimizing solution

Page 66: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

Energy hub analysis Brig-Glis Results – Cost-minimizing solution

kWh

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Energy hub analysis Brig-Glis Results – Emissions-minimizing solution

kWh

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Energy hub analysis Brig-Glis Results – Technology capacities

1 2 3 4 5

6

7

8

kWh/

h Cost-minimizing

solution CO2-minimizing

solution

Page 69: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

Energy hub analysis Brig-Glis Results – Technology capacities

1 2 3 4 5

6

7

8

kWh

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Energy hub analysis Brig-Glis Results – Cost breakdown

1 2 3 4 5

6

7

8

Page 71: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

Energy hub analysis Brig-Glis Comparison 2017-2035-2050

Hour of the year

Hour of the year

Heat

ing

dem

and

(kW

h)

Cool

ing

dem

and

(kW

h)

Page 72: Energy Hubs Part 2: Advanced Topicspeople.ee.ethz.ch/~building/docs/BCA_EnergyHubs_Part2_2019_Bollinger.pdfCapacity constraints Storage charge/discharge constraints . Part-load constraints

Energy hub analysis Brig-Glis Comparison 2017-2035-2050

scenario 2017 scenario 2035 scenario 2050

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Energy hub analysis Brig-Glis Comparison 2017-2035-2050

2017 2050

kWh/

h

kWh/

h

More information «Energy Hubs - ein Beitrag zur Energiewende» Aqua + Gas, 2019. https://www.aquaetgas.ch/energie/effizienz/20190228_ag3_energy-hubs-ein-beitrag-zur-energiewende/

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