Energy from Deserts for Power and Desalination...Concentrating Solar Thermal Power Plants CSP This is not Photo Voltaic panels Much simpler: MIRRORS ! Parabolic Trough Andasol 2 x

NATO Advanced Research WorkshopEnhancing Security in the Middle EastEnhancing Security in the Middle East

through Regional Cooperation on Renewable Energy

Energy from Deserts for Power and Desalinationfor Power and Desalination

. 16-18 January 2008,

Gerhard Knies

y ,The London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE)

Gerhard KniesThe Club of Rome and TREC

TREC = Trans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy Cooperationwww trec eumena org www desertec orgwww.trec-eumena.org, www.desertec.org

Gerhard Knies, Energy Security at LSE 2008 1

Trans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy Cooperation TREC, N t k ith 60 l b f EU ME NANetwork with 60 personal members from EU-ME-NA

Europe (EU)

Middle East & North Africa (MENA)


Lay out of talkLay out of talk

• The potential of deserts for global eco-securityy

• Regional Utilization of Deserts EUMENA DESERTEC ProgramEUMENA-DESERTEC Program

• Local start-up projects – Gaza and Sana‘a


World Population, Carrying Capacity of Earth and use of Fossil Fuels are incompatibeland use of Fossil Fuels are incompatibel

.1 Earth required

from 2000 2050:

pp=10 bnPopulation

growth

pp=10 bn

1 Earth required Stability by renewable energies

Population pp 6 b

growth

Renewables energies:• inexhaustible (x1)• clean(x2)Population, pp

carrying capacity, cc

6 bn5 bn

Fossil Energies:• exhaustible (x2/3)

( )

Carrying cap.

( / )• GH effect (x2/3)

carrying cap.

cc=2-3 bn

About 4 Earths required Crash by

Gerhard Knies, Energy Security at LSE 2008

fossil energies

4

How to cope with the 10:3“ problem?How to cope with the „10:3 problem?

1. Deserts are the largest source of energy on earth !

2. Can

Deserts and Technology = DESERTEC avoid or ease the 10:3 problem? p


Solar Energy coming to Deserts = 700‐fold World Energy Consumption 2000

Can clean energy from deserts help to cope with „10:3“ ?Solar Energy coming to Deserts = 700 fold World Energy Consumption 2000

solar thermal power plants (CSP) and high voltage direct current (HVDC) long distance transmission can provide clean, secure and low‐cost electricity from deserts to over 90% of world population

For comparison:area requiredarea required for same powerfrom plantsBIOMASS

Some desert regions have also excellent WIND

world electricity demand

(18,000 TWh/y)

can be produced from

300 x 300 km²

=0.23% of all deserts

distributed over “10 000” sites

Can Climate Change be stopped by an Apollo program DESERTEC ?


distributed over 10 000 sitesby an Apollo program DESERTEC ?

6

Comparison: global fossil energies solar energies in deserts g g g

Fossil fuels Fossil reserve Delivery time for equivalent solar energy in deserts Global reserves,

resources,

and consumption

(resource)

in gigaton hard coal equivalent

solar energy in deserts,

Fossil reserve

(resource) as

Annual fossilconsumption

(13 5 Gtce) as(Gtce) solar days

(13.5 Gtce) as

solar hours

Total 1,279 (6,224) 47 (227) 5.7

Oil (conventional) 233 (118) 8.5 (4.3) 2.4

Oil (non-conv) 96 (361) 3 5 (13)Oil (non conv) 96 (361) 3.5 (13)

Natural gas (conv) 196 (230) 7.2 (8.4) 1.3

Natural gas (non-conv) 2 (1687) (62)g ( ) 2 (1687) (62)

Coal (hard and lignite) 697 (3541) 26 (129) 1.8

Uranium, Thorium 56 (293) 2 (11) 0.2( ) ( )


Energy from deserts to the worldEnergy from deserts to the world

Long distance transmission ofelectricityelectricity

SUPER GRIDSUPER GRID


HVDC for long distance transmissionHigh Voltage Direct (Alternating) CurrentHVDC: low losses: about 2-3%/1000 km

C o o g d sta ce t a s ss o

HVDC: low losses: about 2-3%/1000 kmHVDC transmission costs less than HVAC for

>700 km land line, >70 km submarine>700 km land line, >70 km submarineSpace for 10 GW DC Transmission: 1/3 of AC lines

800 kV AC

600 kV DCsamecapacity

800 kV DC

each

(ABB 2004)

800 kV DC


How Clean Power from Deserts can reach the World

3000 km

Can Climate Change be stopped


by an Apollo program DESERTEC ?

10

World population within distance to nearest desert90% within 2500 km

90% i hi 2500 k90% pop. within 2500 km

Where is the energy problem ?


From desert sun to electricity

Concentrating Solar Thermal Power Plants

(CSP, not photo voltaics)

with internal heat storage capacitywith internal heat storage capacity


. Concentrating Solar Thermal Power Plants CSP

This is not Photo Voltaic panelsMuch simpler: MIRRORS !

Parabolic Trough

Andasol 2 x 50 MW, GuadixTroughLine concentrator

SEGS 350 MW C lif iSEGS 350 MW, California

Planta Solar 10 MW, SevillaSolar TowerSolar TowerPointconcentrator


Solar steam generator for power plants: the Linear Fresnel Collectorthe Linear Fresnel Collector

easy to produce + to mount

16 long mirrors concentrate

li hsun lightto an

absober pipe


Solar heat storage j ll b ddi i l ljust more storage‐collectors, but no additional power‐plants:

Thermal power plants solar power day + night! The strength of CSP

day time heat storage nighttime

+5000 h/y

day time: 2500 hours/yearrrrrrrr

Spei

cher

Solar Anteil100%Sp

eich

er

Solar Anteil100%Sp

eich

erSp

eich

erSp

eich

erSp

eich

erSp

eich

er

Solar Anteil100%

Thermal Storage = More operating hours = Cost reduction = Delivery by demand

TageszeitTageszeitTageszeitTageszeitTageszeitTageszeitTageszeitTageszeit


CSP: Solar power around the clock !with heat storage + fossil backup heat

SUNConcentrating solar

ll t h t

SUNConcentrating solar

+ desalination as cooling

collectors heat

hot steam • Solar electricity, at day

collectors heat

at day Thermal (heat) energy storage

Solar electricity, at night

• up to 24 h/d solar operation

hot steam

at night

Occasional: steam from fossil fuel: back up

• Integrated reserve capacity,• power accord. to demand• assured operation

steam powerplant

POWER

condenser FRESH 40 liter H²O along with

usedsteam

SEA WATERDesalination plant

FRESH WATER

40 liter H²O along with 1 kWh elecricity


The collector squaresThe collector squares

WORLD EU-25 MENA

In energy and climate sector, global ECO-SECURITY can be attained!



• The importance of deserts for global eco-securityy

• Regional Utilization of Deserts –EUMENAEUMENA

• Local start-up projects – Gaza andSana‘a


MED-CSPMED-CSP

TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP

2 studies

Trans-Mediterranean Interconnection for for

Concentrating Solar Power -www.desertec.org-

Final Report (2006)by

German Aerospace Center (DLR)Institute of Technical ThermodynamicsInstitute of Technical Thermodynamics

Section Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment

Studies commissioned byFederal Ministry for the Environment,

Nature Conservation and Nuclear SafetyGermany


Studies on potentials of renewable energies in EU-MENAInitiated by TREC, performed by DLR, financed by BMU, www.desertec.org

Biomass

Geothermal Energy

(Typical Yield in GWhel/km²/y)

(1)

(1)

Wind Energy

Geothermal Energy (1)

(50)

Hydropower890Economic Potential TWh /y

(50)

1700

750Potential TWhel/y.

Solar - CSP, PV (250)1700, ( )

1090

> 600 000

demand ≈ 7 500 TWh/y EU+MENA 2050 ≈ 35 000 TWh/y world-wide 2050Gerhard Knies, Energy Security at LSE 2008 20

Sun-belt + technology belt

• interconnection

• technology cooperation

DESERTEC Concept: deserts + technology deserts + technology

for energy, water and

climate security


Economic Renewable Electricity Potentials and Demands in EUMENA40times

16000> 630,000

higher

12000

14000

h/y

SolarGeothermalHow Does a

Sustainable Mix

8000

10000

12000

in T

Wh

HydroWindBi

Sustainable Mix„Transition Mix“look like?

6000

8000

ctric

ity Biomass

Wave/TideDesalination

2000

4000

Elec

DesalinationMENAEurope

0Potentials Demand 2000 Demand 2050


Freshwater for a growing popuation

500

600

700n]

BahrainYemenUAESaudi Arabia

300

400

500

latio

n [m

illion Qatar

KuwaitOmanIranIraq

100

200Popu Syria

LebanonJordanIsraelPalestine

700

0

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Year

EgyptLibyaTunisiaAlgeriaMorocco

400

500

600

700

n [m

illio

ns]

Urban

0

100

200

300

Popu

latio

n

Rural

0

20002005

20102015

20202025

20302035

20402045

2050

YearGerhard Knies, Energy Security at LSE 2008 23

Freshwater Demand:Deficits by Country

160 Bahrain

120

140

160n

m³/y

]BahrainYemenUAESaudi Arabia

80

100

120

cit [

billi

on QatarKuwaitOmanIran

NIL

40

60

80

wat

er D

efic Iran

IraqSyriaLebanonJ dN

LE

N

20

40

Fres

hw JordanIsraelPalestineEgypt

NILE

NILE

02000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

LibyaTunisiaAlgeriaMoroccoMorocco


4500

Annual electricity yield (TWh/y) from transition mix 2000-2050, generated according to expected demand

3000

3500

4000

4500W

h/y]

DesalinationExport SolarPhotovoltaicsWind in MENA, including

1500

2000

2500

Ele

ctric

ity [T

W GeothermalHydropowerBiomassWave / TidalCSP PlantsOil / Gas

, gexport to Europe and desalination

0

500

1000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CoalNuclear

Year

3500

4000

4500

y]

Import SolarPhotovoltaicsWindG th l

1500

2000

2500

3000

ectri

city

[TW

h/y Geothermal

HydropowerBiomassWave / TidalCSP PlantsOil

in EU-25 and import from MENA

0

500

1000

1500

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

El Oil

GasCoalNuclear

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year


Hourly time series of transition mix, 2050 showing how power mix follows the load curve,

d ing 1 eek in s mme in Ge man

60

during 1 week in summer in Germany

40

50

ptio

n [G

W]

20

30

ower

Con

sum

p

0

10

25.6. 26.6. 27.6. 28.6. 29.6. 30.6. 1.7.

Po

CHP (fossil) Domestic Renewables Solar ImportOther Import & Storage Balancing Power (fossil) Renewable Surplus

Model of the hourly electricity balance of Germany in 2050 (Brischke 2005)


Resulting EUMENA‐wide decarbonization compatible with climate goal ΔT<2°

CO2 emiss.2000, MT/y

CO2 emiss.2050, MT/y

Reduction2000 2050

CO2 g/kWh2000 2050

EUMENA 1800 690 62% 450 90EUMENA 1800 690 ‐62% 450 90

Germany 350 80 ‐77% 550 130

3000

3500

4000

Mt/y

AvoidedImport SolarPhotovoltaics- 81%

2000

2500

3000

issi

ons

in M

PhotovoltaicsWindGeothermalHydropower

500

1000

1500

CO

2-Em

i

Wave / TidalBiomassCSP PlantsOil / Gas

0

500

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

Oil / GasCoalNuclear


CostsCosts??


Power Cost Development p


Import from Africa cheaper than Spanish production ! 29

Power Cost Development p


White Paper of

The Club of Rome

towards an Apollo-Programme EU-MENA DESERTECU S CforEnergy, Water and Climate Securityy

Available at

www .desertec.org


If sun‐ and techno‐ belt launch an APOLLO‐like program DESERTEC…

8 Millenn. Dev.Goals

Gl b li tiEU-MENAenergysecurity

supportGlobalizationCivilization

APOLLO APOLLO pgmpgm

MENAEU

pgpgDESERTECDESERTEC

SOLARSOLARGlobalclimatesecurity

EU-MENA Development. Discrepancies solve

SOLAR SOLAR Energy AllianceEnergy Alliance

MENAwater crises

y

Gerhard Knies, Energy Security at LSE 2008… can be “purchased” for about 10 bn €

32

DESERTEC White Paper handed over to President of European Parliament Prof PötteringPresident of European Parliament, Prof. Pöttering,

November 28th 2007



1. The importance of deserts for global eco-securityy

2. Regional Utilization of Deserts –EUMENA DESERTEC Apollo programEUMENA-DESERTEC Apollo program

3. Local start-up projects – Gaza andSana‘a


Vision GAZA 2050the pride of Palestine

Gerhard Knies, Energy Security at LSE 2008Crazy ? What could be more crazy than the present situation ?35

Proposal for a better FUTURE:pSolar Power&Water Plant for Gaza

Mediterranean Sea

for 2-3 Million people of Gaza

EgyptSinai Israel


Desert36

Strong over-pumping of aquifer underneath Gaza

Ground Water Level (m/msl) below Mediterranean Sea Level

L/571 50

P/610 00

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

5 00

-4.00

-3.00

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

-8.00

-7.00

-6.00

-5.00

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

B/45.00

A/1072.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

-1.00

0.00

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002-3.00

-2.00

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Salt intrusion !

How many people in Gaza?

Population in 2005

Expected in 2015

In 2025 In 2035

1 4 Mio 2 0 2 6 3 31.4 Mio 2.0 2.6 3.3From Palestinian Central Bureau of

StatisticsAssuming 3.0%

ann. GrowthAssuming 2.0%

ann. Growth


Basic parameters for the size of SW&PSBasic parameters for the size of SW&PS

Demand Per capita and year for 2 5 Million inhabitantsDemand Per capita and year for 2.5 Million inhabitants

Power 4000 kWh 10 TWh electricity/y

Water 300 m³ > 700 million m³ water/y

Required solar energy collector field Required solar energy collector field size = 5 km² for 1 TWh/year:

50 km² for collectors50 km for collectors


Space for solar collectorsSpace for solar collectors

solar power and desalination for GAZAGAZA

Area of Gaza: (9.5X40)= 380 km²ca.3 Mio inhabitants in 2030ca.3 Mio inhabitants in 2030

Area required for collectors: (5X10)= 50 km²13% of Gaza

No option for Gaza!

Gerhard Knies, Energy Security at LSE 2008Convert a need into a virtue: deploy collectors in nearby Egypt

42

Solar Power&Water Plants in Egyptgyp+ Pipe and Power Lines to Gaza

Solar thermal power

Mediterranean Sea

Clean power

p& desalination plants for 2-3 Million people

of GazaDesalinated water

EgyptSinai


Desert43

Investment for

Gaza SW&PSsolar water&power sourcep

Components of the Gaza SW&PS Estimate on investmentp

Solar Thermal Power Stations of 1200 MW 3 - 5 b$e.g. 10, 20, 20, 50, 100, 200, 200, 300, 300 MW

Multi-Effect Desalination for 360 Mm³/year 1 - 2 b$Infrastructure (roads, pipe lines, power transmission, ..) 0.5 b$

Total investment 6 +/- 1 b$

In comparison to war against terror (not including damages) 2 weeks Iraq warp g ( g g ) q(0.5 b$/day)


Annual cost and incomeAnnual cost and income

A l t Annual cost, without capital costO&M&In (6%)

Fuel360 M$300 M$Fuel 300 M$

Annual incomePower: 5 c$/kWhW t 0 5 $/C

500 M$180 M$Water: 0.5 $/Cm 180 M$


Some properties of Gaza SW&PSp p

1 SW&PS d f 2 3 Milli i h bit t1. SW&PS can produce for 2 - 3 Million inhabitants– water for living– power for productivityp p y– cooling for quality of life– a better perspective for their future

with never ending energy supply and long-term sinking costs.

2. SW&PS can be built from existing technology, within 8 -2. SW&PS can be built from existing technology, within 8 10 years. (technology may improve during this time)

3. Collectors are to be located on nearby (Egyptian?) groundsgrounds.

4. Production lines for concentrating collectors can be set up in Palestine and/or Egypt.


BeneficiariesBeneficiaries …

1. Gaza (power, water, jobs, FUTURE)

2. Egypt (solar technology jobs)2. Egypt (solar technology, jobs)

3. All Palestine, Israel (water, better neighborhood)

4. MENA (cost reduction of solar technology)

5 EU (self supporting neighbors step towards clean5. EU (self supporting neighbors, step towards clean power from deserts: energy and climate security)

… should take the initiative !


Financing proposal for 1. Beneficiaries of the Gaza SW&PS create GARAGE and

Gaza SW&PSSW&PS create GARAGE, and establish a Gaza Recovery Fund.

Gaza Recovery Agency GARAGE

2. GARAGE offers long-term purchase agreements for power and watertt ti t t ti l i tGa a eco e y ge cy G G

Solar water

Palestine, Egypt, Israel,

attractive to potential investors.

3. GARAGE sells power and water to Gaza consumers Solar water

& power plantinvestor #1

Jordan, EU

World BankIsDB EIB

Gaza Recovery

Solar water& power plant

according to their purchasing power in fulfillment of its political mission for fast and durable recovery of GazaIsDB, EIB,

„Petro-Dollars“..

yAgency

GARAGEME QuartettB l

investor #2

Solar water& power plant

investor #3Solar water

& power plantSolar water

durable recovery of Gaza.

4. Eventually, GARAGE could be upgraded to a MENA –wide

To be createdStatus: 2005-09-22

Barcelona Process

investor #3& power plantinvestor #3

pgacting development agency (for other places with water emergency).


Conclusions1. Deserts are the largest but least exploited source of energy on

earth.

2. The powerhouse desert can deliver until 2050 safe, clean and cost-competitive power to over 90% of world population.

3. CSP and HVDC are key technologies for global energy, water + climate security (DESERTEC +SuperGrid).

4. Sun-belt and technology-belt can now form partnerships for development and for a world with 10 billon people.

5. The Club of Rome/TREC is working towards an Apollo-Program like effort EUMENA-DESERTEC to achieve these goals (see White Paper at www.desertec.org ).

6. Gaza is existing and situation is getting worse: A Solar Water&Power Source is a powerful peace-building and security enhancing project for the Middle East and North Africaenhancing project for the Middle East and North Africa.


Sana'a Solar Sana'a Solar Sana a Solar Sana a Solar Desalination ProjectDesalination ProjectWater Security for SANA’AWater Security for SANA’A

and forand for

YEMENYEMENand many other countries in and many other countries in

the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

Dr. Gerhard KniesTrans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy Cooperation

[email protected]

52

Dr. Gerhard Knies, Trans‐Mediterranean Renewable Energy

Cooperation TREC Sana’a Desalination Project Definition Meeting, 2006‐05‐28

The Lighthouse ProjectThe Lighthouse Project 'Sana'a Solar Water'

Sana‘a

Al-Hudaydah Solar Water Pipeline

Solar Thermal Power PlantsSeawater Desalination

53Quelle: DLR

Sandia National Laboratories Applied Energy Photo Database ACI Aquaprotect Consult

Sana‘a Solar Water Project Investment Costs

Solar Thermal Power Plants 4.0 Bill. $1 250 MW1,250 MW

Multi‐Effect‐Desalination 1.5 Bill. $ll ³/300 Mill. m³/year

Desalination Reverse Osmosis 2.5 Bill. $700 Mill. m³/year

Infrastructure 3.0 Bill. $(Pipeline/Pumping)

Total Investment 11.0 Bill. $

54



Total Investment 11.0 Bill. $

Comparison of investment costs forComparison of investment costs for displacement of population of Sana’a,

water pipe line to Sana’awater pipe line to Sana a, Investments

DPS(2.1;1.0)

PLS1.0

Proposal forments

(Bn $)for

( ; )Displacement of 2.1 Million people and desalination of

Pipeline and pumping to Sana’a, desalination of

for finance

f1 BCM water

f1 BCM water

InfraStructure

16.8 6 Public responsibilty

Water desalination

6.2 5.0 Water consumers

Total 23 11

55



Fossil (earth) fuels: reserves, resources, and consumptionp

Quelle: Reserven, Ressourcen und Verfügbarkeit von Energierohstoffen 2004, Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaftenund Rohstoffe

Reserves = technically and economically exploitable : 100 years constant production

und Rohstoffe

1 gigaton coal equivalent = 1Gtce = 29 EJ = 8,140 TWh-thermal.

Reserves = technically and economically exploitable : 100 years constant productionResources = found, but not yet exploitable, or expected by geological considerations, 500 constant years


How much power ?How much power ?

Gaza target 4-6 MWh/cap/year


Sun-belt+ technology belt

i t ti

DESERTEC Concept:

- interconnection

- technology cooperation

S C Co cept

deserts + technology

for energy, water and

li t itclimate security


Main parameters of a EUMENA HVDC super-grid and power generation + transmission costs.CSP iti f 2020 2050 di t th TRANS CSP i I 2050 20 li ithCSP capacities from 2020 – 2050 according to the TRANS-CSP scenario. In 2050, 20 lines with a capacity of 5 GW each will transmit about 700 TWh/y of electricity from 20 different locations in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to the main centres of demand in Europe.

20 x 514 x 58 x 52 x 5Transfer Capacity GW

2050204020302020Year


2050204020302020Year

0 800 750 670 60Capacity Factor

70047023060Electricity Transfer TWh/y


0 800 750 670 60Capacity Factor

70047023060Electricity Transfer TWh/y


0.800.750.670.60Capacity Factor

50 x 5040 x 4030 x 3015 x 15Land Area CSP

352412.53.8Turnover Billion €/y

0.800.750.670.60Capacity Factor

50 x 5040 x 4030 x 3015 x 15Land Area CSP

352412.53.8Turnover Billion €/y

35024514342Investment CSP

50 x 503600 x 1.0

40 x 403600 x 0.7

30 x 303600 x 0.4

15 x 153100 x 0.1

Land Area CSPkm x km HVDC

35024514342Investment CSP

50 x 503600 x 1.0

40 x 403600 x 0.7

30 x 303600 x 0.4

15 x 153100 x 0.1

Land Area CSPkm x km HVDC

4531205Billion € HVDC0.0400.010

0.0400.010

0.0450.010

0.0500.014

Elec. Cost CSP€/kWh HVDC

4531205Billion € HVDC0.0400.010

0.0400.010

0.0450.010

0.0500.014

Elec. Cost CSP€/kWh HVDC


Documents

Energy from Deserts for Power and Desalination...Concentrating Solar Thermal Power Plants CSP This is not Photo Voltaic panels Much simpler: MIRRORS ! Parabolic Trough Andasol 2 x