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Energy,ElectricityandNuclear PowerEstimatesfor the Periodup to 2030
R E F E R E N C E D ATA S E R I E S No. 1 July 2006
REFERENCE DATA SERIES No. 1
ENERGY, ELECTRICITYAND NUCLEAR POWER ESTIMATES
FOR THE PERIOD UP TO 2030
July 2006 Edition
INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCYVIENNA, 2006
ENERGY, ELECTRICITY ANDNUCLEAR POWER ESTIMATESFOR THE PERIOD UP TO 2030
IAEA, VIENNA, 2006IAEA-RDS-1/26
ISBN 92–0–107006–3ISSN 1011–2642
Printed by the IAEA in AustriaJuly 2006
CONTENTS
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Grouping of countries and areas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Table 1. Nuclear power reactors in the world(end of 2005) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Figure 1. Nuclear share of total electricitygeneration in 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Table 2. Number of countries with nuclearpower reactors in operation orunder construction (end of 2005) . . . . . . . . 15
Table 3. Estimates of total and nuclearelectrical generating capacity . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Figure 2. Total and nuclear electrical generatingcapacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Table 4. Estimates of total electricity generationand contribution by nuclear power . . . . . . . 21
Figure 3. Percentage of electricity suppliedby nuclear power. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
Table 5. Estimates of total energy requirement(EJ), percentage used for electricitygeneration, and percentage suppliedby nuclear energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Figure 4. Estimates of total energy requirement . . . . 26Table 6. Total energy requirement (EJ) by fuel type
in 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29Figure 5. Total energy requirement by fuel type
in 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30Figure 6. Breakdown of world total energy
requirement during the period1970–2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Table 7. Fuel shares (%) of total energy requirement in 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Table 8. Fuel use (EJ) for electricitygeneration by fuel type in 2005 . . . . . . . . . 36
Table 9. Percentage contribution of eachfuel type to electricity generationin 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Table 10. Estimates of population growth by region. . 39Figure 7. Population estimates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40Table 11. Estimates of total energy and electricity
requirement per capita . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Figure 8. Total energy requirement per capita . . . . . . 44Figure 9. Total electricity requirement per capita . . . . 46Table 12. Average annual growth rates during the
period 1995–2005 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49Figure 10.Average annual growth rates during the
period 1995–2005 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50Table 13. Estimates of average annual
growth rates during the period2005–2030 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
5
INTRODUCTION
Reference Data Series No. 1 is an annual publication —currently in its twenty-sixth edition — containing estimatesof energy, electricity and nuclear power trends up to theyear 2030.
Nuclear data presented in Table 1 are based on actualstatistical data collected by the IAEA’s Power ReactorInformation System (PRIS). Energy and electricity data for2005, however, are estimated, since the latest availableinformation from the Department of Economic and SocialAffairs of the United Nations is for 2003. Population dataoriginate from the World Population Prospects (2003Revision), published by the Population Division of the UNDepartment of Economic and Social Affairs, and the 2005values are estimates.
The future growth of energy, electricity and nuclearpower up to the year 2030 is presented as low and highestimates in order to encompass the uncertainties asso-ciated with the future. These estimates should be viewedas very general growth trends whose validity must con-stantly be subjected to critical review.
The energy forecasts carried out in increasing numbersover the last years by international, national and privateorganizations are based on a multiplicity of differentassumptions and different aggregating procedures,which make their comparison and synthesis very difficult.The basic differences refer to such fundamental input dataas:
— World and regional scenarios of economic develop-ment;
— Correlation of economic growth and energy con-sumption;
— Assumptions on physical, economic and politicalconstraints applying to energy production and con-sumption;
— Future prices of different energy sources.
6
The projections presented in this booklet are based ona compromise among:
— National projections supplied by each country for arecent OECD/NEA study;
— Indicators of development published by the WorldBank in its World Development Indicators;
— Estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear powergrowth continuously carried out by the IAEA in thewake of recent global and regional projections madeby other international organizations.
The nuclear generating capacity estimates presented inTable 3 are derived from a country by country ‘bottom-up’approach. They are established by a group of experts par-ticipating each year in the IAEA’s consultancy on NuclearCapacity Projections and based upon a review of nuclearpower projects and programmes in Member States.
The low and high estimates reflect contrasting but notextreme underlying assumptions on the different drivingfactors that have an impact on nuclear power deployment.These factors, and the ways they might evolve, vary fromcountry to country. The estimates presented provide aplausible range of nuclear capacity growth by region andworldwide. They are not intended to be predictive nor toreflect the whole range of possible futures from the lowestto the highest feasible.
In the low estimates, the present barriers to nuclearpower development are assumed to prevail in most coun-tries during the coming three decades:
— Low economic and electricity demand growth rates inOECD countries;
— Public opposition to nuclear power, leading to policydecisions not to consider the nuclear option in spite of itscompetitive costs and potential contribution to reducingenvironmental impacts from electricity generation;
— Institutional and financing issues preventing theimplementation of previously planned nuclear pro-grammes, in particular in countries in transition and indeveloping countries;
7
— Inadequate mechanisms for nuclear technologytransfer and nuclear project funding in developingcountries.
The high estimates reflect a moderate revival of nuclearpower development that could result in particular from amore comprehensive comparative assessment of the different options for electricity generation, integrating eco-nomic, social, health and environmental aspects. They arebased upon a review of national nuclear power pro-grammes, assessing their technical and economic feasibility. They assume that some policy measures wouldbe taken to facilitate the implementation of these pro-grammes, such as strengthening of international co-operation, enhanced technology adaptation and transfer,and establishment of innovative funding mechanisms.These estimates also take into account the global concernover climate change caused by the increasing concentra-tion of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and the sign-ing of the recent Kyoto Protocol.
The data on electricity produced by nuclear powerplants is converted to joules based on the average effi-ciency of a nuclear power plant, i.e. 33 per cent; data onelectricity generated by geothermal heat is converted tojoules based on the average efficiency of a geothermalpower plant, i.e. 10 per cent. The conversion to joules ofelectricity generated by hydropower or by the other non-thermal sources such as wind, tide, and solar is based onthe energy content of the electricity generated (the equi-valent of assuming a 100 per cent efficiency).
The total energy requirement has been calculated bysumming the primary energy production, the net energytrade minus changes in international bunkers and domes-tic stocks.
The values shown in Table 9 refer to primary energyused for the generation of electricity. Owing to differencesin conversion efficiencies, the percentage values are dif-ferent from the shares of electricity generation presentedin Tables 1 and 5.
8
Energy Units
1 MW(e) = 106 watts1 GW(e) = 1000 MW(e) = 109 watts1 GJ = 1 gigajoule = 109 joules1 EJ = 1 exajoule = 1018 joules1 EJ = 23.9 megatonnes of oil equivalent (MTOE)1 TW·h = 1 terawatt-hour = 109 kW·h = 3.6 × 10–3 EJ
9
North AmericaCanada* United States of America*
Latin AmericaAnguilla Haiti*Antigua and Barbuda Honduras*Argentina* Jamaica*Aruba MartiniqueBahamas Mexico*Barbados MontserratBelize Netherlands AntillesBermuda Nicaragua*Bolivia* Panama*Brazil* Paraguay*Cayman Islands Peru*Chile* Puerto RicoColombia* S.Georgia & S.Sandwich IslandsCosta Rica* Saint Kitts and NevisCuba* Saint LuciaDominica Saint Pierre and MiquelonDominican Republic* Saint Vincent & the GrenadinesEcuador* SurinameEl Salvador* Trinidad and TobagoGrenada Turks and Caicos IslandsGuadeloupe Uruguay*Guatemala* Venezuela*Guyana
Western EuropeAndorra Liechtenstein*Austria* Luxembourg*Belgium* Malta*Cyprus* Monaco*Denmark* Netherlands*Finland* Norway*France* Portugal*Germany* San MarinoGibraltar Spain*Greece* Svalbard and Jan Mayen IslandsGreenland Sweden*Holy See* Switzerland*Iceland* Turkey*Ireland* United Kingdom*Italy*
GROUPING OF COUNTRIES AND AREAS
The countries and geographical areasincluded in each grouping are listed below
(IAEA Member States are denoted by an asterisk)
*
10
AfricaAlgeria* MalawiAngola* Mali*Benin* Mauritania*Botswana* Mauritius*Burkina Faso* MayotteBurundi Morocco*Cameroon* MozambiqueCape Verde Namibia*Central African Republic* Niger*Chad Nigeria*Comoros ReunionCongo RwandaCôte d'Ivoire* Saint HelenaDemocratic Rep. of the Congo* Sao Tome and PrincipeDjibouti Senegal*Egypt* Seychelles*Equatorial Guinea Sierra Leone*Eritrea* SomaliaEthiopia* South Africa*Gabon* Sudan*Gambia SwazilandGhana* TogoGuinea Tunisia*Guinea-Bissau Uganda*Kenya* United Republic of Tanzania*Lesotho Western SaharaLiberia* Zambia*Libyan Arab Jamahiriya* Zimbabwe*Madagascar*
Eastern EuropeAlbania* Lithuania*Armenia* Poland*Azerbaijan* Republic of Moldova*Belarus* Romania*Bosnia and Herzegovina* Russian Federation*Bulgaria* Serbia and Montenegro*Croatia* Slovakia*Czech Republic* Slovenia*Estonia* Tajikistan*Georgia* The Frmr.Yug.Rep. of Macedonia*Hungary* TurkmenistanKazakhstan* Ukraine*Kyrgyzstan* Uzbekistan*Latvia*
*
*
11
Middle East and South AsiaAfghanistan* Kuwait*Bahrain Lebanon*Bangladesh* NepalBhutan OmanBritish Indian Ocean Territory Pakistan*Cocos (Keeling) Islands Qatar*French Southern Territories Saudi Arabia*Heard Island & McDonald Islands Sri Lanka*India* Syrian Arab Republic*Iran, Islamic Republic of* T.T.U.T.J. of T. Palestinian A.Iraq* United Arab Emirates*Israel* Yemen*Jordan*
South East Asia and the PacificAustralia* Northern Mariana IslandsBrunei Darussalam PalauCook Islands Papua New GuineaFiji Pitcairn IslandsIndonesia* SamoaKiribati Singapore*Malaysia* Solomon IslandsMaldives Thailand*Marshall Islands* Timor LesteMicronesia (Fed. States of) TokelauMyanmar* TuvaluNew Zealand* US Minor Outlying IslandsNiue VanuatuNorfolk Islands Wallis and Futuna Islands
Far EastCambodia Macau, ChinaChina* Mongolia*Dem. P.R. of Korea Philippines*Japan* Taiwan, ChinaKorea, Republic of* Vietnam*Lao P.D.R.
12
TABL
E 1.
NUC
LEAR
PO
WER
REA
CTO
RS IN
THE
WO
RLD
(end
of 2
005)
Per c
ent o
fTo
tal E
lect
ricity
Nor
th A
mer
ica
Can
ada
18
12
599
86.8
14.6
Uni
ted
Stat
es o
f Am
eric
a10
4
99
210
780.
5
19
.3
Lat
in A
mer
ica
Arge
ntin
a2
935
1
69
2
6.
4
6.
9
Br
azil
2
19
01
9.
9
2.
5
M
exic
o2
1310
10.8
5.0
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
Belg
ium
7
58
01
45
.3
55
.6
Fi
nlan
d4
2676
1
16
00
22
.3
32
.9
Fr
ance
59
63
363
430.
9
78
.5
G
erm
any
17
20
339
154.
6
31
.0
N
ethe
rland
s1
449
3.8
3.9
Spai
n9
7588
54.7
19.6
Swed
en10
8910
69.5
44.9
Switz
erla
nd5
3220
22.1
32.1
Uni
ted
King
dom
23
11
852
75.2
19.9
Eas
tern
Eur
ope
Arm
enia
1
37
6
2.
5
42
.7
Bu
lgar
ia4
2722
2
19
06
17
.3
44
.1
C
zech
Rep
ublic
6
33
68
23
.3
30
.5
H
unga
ry4
1755
13.0
37.2
Gro
up a
nd C
ount
ryIn
Ope
ratio
nUn
der C
onst
ruct
ion
Elec
trici
ty S
uppl
ied
by N
ucle
arPo
wer
Rea
ctor
s in
200
5
Num
ber o
f Uni
tsTo
tal M
W(e
)Nu
mbe
r of U
nits
Tota
l MW
(e)
TW.h
13
TABL
E 1.
NUC
LEAR
PO
WER
REA
CTO
RS IN
THE
WO
RLD
(end
of 2
005)
— c
ontin
ued
Per c
ent o
fTo
tal E
lect
ricity
Lith
uani
a1
1185
10.3
69.6
Rom
ania
1
65
5
1
655
5.1
8.6
Russ
ian
Fede
ratio
n31
2174
3
4
3775
137.
3
15
.8
Sl
ovak
ia6
2442
16.3
56.1
Slov
enia
1
65
6
5.
6
42
.4
Uk
rain
e15
1310
7
2
1900
83.3
48.5
Afri
ca
So
uth
Afric
a2
1800
12.2
5.5
Mid
dle
East
and
Sou
th A
sia
Indi
a15
3040
8
36
02
15
.7
2.
8
Ira
n, Is
lam
ic Re
publ
ic of
1
91
5
Pa
kista
n2
425
1
30
0
2.
4
2.
8
Far
Eas
t
Ch
ina
9
65
72
3
3000
50.3
2.0
Japa
n56
4783
9
1
866
280.
7
29
.3
Ko
rea,
Rep
ublic
of
20
16
810
139.
3
44
.7
Wor
ld T
otal
(a)
443
3695
52
27
2181
1
26
25.9
15.5
Not
es:
(a) I
nclu
ding
the
follo
win
g da
ta in
Tai
wan
, Chi
na:
— 6
uni
ts in
ope
ratio
n w
ith to
tal c
apac
ity o
f 490
4 M
W(e
); 2
units
und
er c
onst
ruct
ion
with
tota
l cap
acity
of 2
600
MW
(e);
— 3
8.4
TW.h
of n
ucle
ar e
lect
ricity
gen
erat
ion,
repr
esen
ting
20.3
% o
f the
tota
l ele
ctric
ity g
ener
ated
.
Gro
up a
nd C
ount
ryIn
Ope
ratio
nUn
der C
onst
ruct
ion
Elec
trici
ty S
uppl
ied
by N
ucle
arPo
wer
Rea
ctor
s in
200
5
Num
ber o
f Uni
tsTo
tal M
W(e
)Nu
mbe
r of U
nits
Tota
l MW
(e)
TW.h
14
FIGURE 1. NUCLEAR SHARE OF TOTAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN 2005
69.6
55.6
48.5
44.9
44.1
42.4
37.2
32.9
32.1
31.0
30.5
29.3
19.9
19.6
19.3
15.8
14.6
8.6
6.9
5.5
5.0
3.9
2.8
2.8
2.5
2.0
78.5
42.7
44.7
56.1
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0
FRANCE
LITHUANIA
SLOVAKIA
BELGIUM
UKRAINE
SWEDEN
KOREA R.
BULGARIA
ARMENIA
SLOVENIA
HUNGARY
FINLAND
SWITZERLAND
GERMANY
CZECH R.
JAPAN
UK
SPAIN
USA
RUSSIAN FED.
CANADA
ROMANIA
ARGENTINA
SOUTH AFRICA
MEXICO
NETHERLANDS
INDIA
PAKISTAN
BRAZIL
CHINA
Nuclear Share (%)
15
TAB
LE 2
. NU
MB
ER O
F C
OU
NTR
IES
WIT
H N
UC
LEA
R P
OW
ER R
EAC
TOR
S IN
OPE
RAT
ION
OR
UN
DER
CO
NST
RU
CTI
ON
(end
of 2
005)
In O
pera
tion
Und
er C
onst
ruct
ion
(1)
Tota
l (2)
Nor
th A
mer
ica
2
2
2
Lat
in A
mer
ica
45
3
1
3
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
29
9
1
9
Eas
tern
Eur
ope
27
10
4
10
Afri
ca57
1
1
Mid
dle
Eas
t and
Sou
th A
sia
25
2
3
3
Sou
th E
ast A
sia
and
the
Pac
ific
27
Far
Eas
t11
4
3
4
Wor
ld T
otal
223
31
12
32
Not
es:
(1) M
ay in
clud
e co
untr
ies
havi
ng re
acto
rs a
lread
y in
ope
ratio
n. (2
) Tot
al n
umbe
r of c
ount
ries
in e
ach
grou
p th
at h
ave
nucl
ear p
ower
reac
tors
in o
pera
tion,
or u
nder
con
stru
ctio
n.
Cou
ntrie
s w
ith N
ucle
ar P
ower
Rea
ctor
sN
umbe
r of C
ount
ries
in G
roup
Cou
ntry
Gro
up
BLANK
17
TAB
LE 3
. EST
IMAT
ES O
F TO
TAL
AN
D N
UC
LEA
R E
LEC
TRIC
AL
GEN
ERAT
ING
CA
PAC
ITY
GW
(e)
%G
W(e
)%
GW
(e)
%G
W(e
)%
1252
111.
8
8.9
12
89
11
4
9
1400
120
9
15
46
12
6
8.
2
1335
116
9
14
78
13
1
9
1643
158
10
276
4.
1
1.5
30
5
4.1
1.
4
385
6.
3
1.6
48
5
6.0
1.
2
339
4.
3
1.3
52
6
7.3
1.
4
802
18
2.2
751
12
4.2
16
.5
78
2
122
16
86
4
91
10
964
48
5
818
12
4
15
953
12
9
14
1121
149
13
466
48
.0
10
.3
46
9
48
10
505
68
14
54
3
78
14
489
50
10
59
6
76
13
724
10
7
15
104
1.
8
1.7
11
1
1.8
1.
6
138
2.
1
1.5
17
5
2.1
1.
2
125
1.
8
1.4
19
1
4.1
2.
2
292
10
.3
3.5
300
3.
5
1.2
33
8
10
2.
9
439
17
3.8
56
8
23
4.
1
365
11
3.0
54
7
27
4.
9
800
46
5.8
146
16
5
208
25
8
0.9
0.
3
176
25
8
0.9
0.
3
374
4.
8
1.3
822
76
.1
9.
3
854
81
9
10
03
11
9
12
1169
130
11
98
7
83
8
1371
145
11
18
67
18
7
10
Low
Est
imat
e41
17
36
9.6
9.
0
4314
381
9
49
43
42
3
8.
6
5709
414
7.3
H
igh
Est
imat
e46
33
39
0
8.
4
5920
520
8.8
76
22
67
9
8.
9
Not
e:(a
) Nuc
lear
cap
acity
est
imat
es ta
ke in
to a
ccou
nt th
e sc
hedu
led
deco
mm
issi
onin
g of
the
olde
r uni
ts a
t the
end
of t
heir
lifet
ime.
Cou
ntry
Gro
upTo
tal E
lect
.G
W(e
)To
tal E
lect
.G
W(e
)To
tal E
lect
.G
W(e
)N
ucle
ar20
0520
10 (a
)20
20 (a
)20
30 (a
)To
tal E
lect
.G
W(e
)N
ucle
arN
ucle
arN
ucle
ar
Nor
th A
mer
ica
Latin
Am
eric
a
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
Eas
tern
Eur
ope
Wor
ld T
otal
Afri
ca
Mid
dle
Eas
t and
Sou
th A
sia
Sou
th E
ast A
sia
and
the
Pac
ific
Far E
ast
18
North Latin Western EasternAmerica America Europe Europe
FIGURE 2. TOTAL AND NUCLEAR ELECTRICAL GENERATING CAPACITY
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2005
2010
2020
2030
GW
(e)
19
Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far EastSouth Asia & the Pacific
2005
2010
2020
2030
Total Capacity - High EstimateTotal Capacity - Low EstimateNuclear Contribution - High EstimateNuclear Contribution - Low Estimate
BLANK
21
TAB
LE 4
. EST
IMAT
ES O
F TO
TAL
ELEC
TRIC
ITY
GEN
ERAT
ION
AN
D C
ON
TRIB
UTI
ON
BY
NU
CLE
AR
PO
WER
(*)
TW.h
%TW
.h%
TW.h
%TW
.h%
4631
867.
3
18
.7
47
43
91
2
19
.2
5414
971
17.9
60
57
10
17
16
.8
4993
921
18.5
61
11
10
56
17
.3
7430
1273
17.1
1116
27.0
2.4
1187
31
2.
6
1613
47
2.
9
2206
45
2.
1
1326
32
2.
4
2103
54
2.
6
3442
136
4.0
2995
878.
4
29
.3
31
77
89
8
28
.3
3464
683
19.7
37
56
37
4
10
.0
3325
910
27.4
42
80
97
2
22
.7
5535
1146
20.7
1723
314.
0
18
.2
17
97
31
4
17
.4
2076
461
22.2
23
58
54
5
23
.1
1917
329
17.1
26
29
51
0
19
.4
3789
748
19.7
510
12.2
2.4
570
14
2.
5
740
17
2.
3
931
18
1.
9
607
14
2.
4
961
34
3.
5
1509
85
5.
6
1240
18.1
1.5
1346
59
4.
4
1789
103
5.8
23
13
15
0
6.
5
1518
65
4.
3
2407
166
6.9
36
72
29
9
8.
1
630
717
915
1138
6
0.
5
746
1064
6
0.
5
1510
31
2.
1
4087
508.
7
12
.4
42
80
55
4
13
.0
5231
820
15.7
63
28
91
9
14
.5
4958
570
11.5
75
78
10
06
13
.3
1130
3
13
25
11
.7
Low
Est
imat
e16
930
2625
.9
15
.5
17
818
2782
16
21
242
3102
15
25
087
3074
12
H
igh
Est
imat
e19
391
2842
15
27
133
3803
14
38
191
5043
13
(*) T
he n
ucle
ar g
ener
atio
n da
ta p
rese
nted
in th
is ta
ble
and
the
nucl
ear c
apac
ity d
ata
pres
ente
d in
Tab
le 3
can
not b
e us
ed to
cal
cula
te a
vera
ge a
nnua
l cap
acity
fact
ors
for n
ucle
ar p
lant
s,
as
Tabl
e 3
pres
ents
yea
r-en
d ca
paci
ty a
nd n
ot th
e ef
fect
ive
capa
city
ave
rage
ove
r the
yea
r.
Wor
ld T
otal
Afri
ca
Mid
dle
Eas
t and
Sou
th A
sia
Sou
th E
ast A
sia
and
the
Pac
ific
Far E
ast
Nor
th A
mer
ica
Latin
Am
eric
a
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
Eas
tern
Eur
ope
Nuc
lear
2005
2010
2020
2030
Tota
l Ele
ct.
TW.h
Nuc
lear
Nuc
lear
Nuc
lear
Cou
ntry
Gro
upTo
tal E
lect
.TW
.hTo
tal E
lect
.TW
.hTo
tal E
lect
.TW
.h
22
North Latin Western EasternAmerica America Europe Europe
FIGURE 3. PERCENTAGE OF ELECTRICITY SUPPLIED BY NUCLEAR POWER
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2005
2010
2020
2030
(%)
23
Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far EastSouth Asia & the Pacific
2005
2010
2020
2030
Nuclear Low Estimate
Nuclear High Estimate
BLANK
25
TAB
LE 5
. ES
TIM
ATE
S O
F TO
TAL
EN
ER
GY
RE
QU
IRE
ME
NT
(EJ)
, PE
RC
EN
TAG
E U
SE
D F
OR
ELE
CTR
ICIT
Y G
EN
ER
ATI
ON
, AN
D P
ER
CE
NTA
GE
S
UP
PLI
ED
BY
NU
CLE
AR
EN
ER
GY
(*)
112.
9
34
.6
8.
4
11
6
35
8.6
12
4
37
8.6
13
3
38
8.4
12
2
35
8.3
14
0
37
8.2
15
9
39
8.7
30.8
22.8
1.0
35
22
1.0
44
23
1.
2
55
25
0.9
37
23
0.
9
56
24
1.1
83
27
1.
8
70.7
36.5
13.6
73
37
13.4
77
37
9.
6
82
36
5.0
75
38
13
.2
84
43
12.7
94
49
13
56.2
36.2
6.1
59
36
5.8
67
36
7.
5
75
37
7.9
62
36
5.
8
79
39
7.0
98
46
8.
3
29.7
15.5
0.4
32
16
0.5
40
17
0.
5
47
18
0.4
35
16
0.
5
47
19
0.8
62
22
1.
5
48.5
30.3
0.4
55
29
1.2
70
30
1.
6
89
31
1.8
59
31
1.
2
85
33
2.1
12
1
36
2.7
22.6
29.1
25
30
31
31
38
32
0.2
27
29
39
29
0.
2
53
30
0.6
102.
1
35
.9
5.
4
11
2
34
5.4
13
7
35
6.5
16
4
35
6.1
12
1
37
5.1
17
2
40
6.4
23
7
43
6.1
Low
Est
imat
e47
3.5
32.7
6.0
506
32
6.
0
589
33
5.
7
683
33
4.
9
Hig
h E
stim
ate
537
33
5.
8
700
35
5.
9
907
38
6.
1
Not
e: (*
) Tot
al e
nerg
y re
quir
emen
t is
estim
ated
as
prod
uctio
n of
pri
mar
y en
ergy
plu
s ne
t tra
de (i
mpo
rt –
exp
ort)
min
us in
tern
atio
nal b
unke
rs a
nd s
tock
cha
nges
.
Wor
ld T
otal
Afr
ica
Mid
dle
Eas
t and
Sou
th A
sia
Sou
th E
ast A
sia
and
the
Pac
ific
Far
Eas
t
Nor
th A
mer
ica
Latin
Am
eric
a
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
Eas
tern
Eur
ope
% U
sed
for
Ele
ct. G
en.
% S
uppl
ied
by N
ucle
ar
2005
2010
2020
2030
Tota
l Ene
rgy
Con
sum
ptio
nTo
tal E
nerg
yC
onsu
mpt
ion
% S
uppl
ied
by N
ucle
ar%
Use
d fo
rE
lect
. Gen
.%
Sup
plie
dby
Nuc
lear
Cou
ntry
Gro
up%
Use
d fo
rE
lect
. Gen
.%
Sup
plie
dby
Nuc
lear
% U
sed
for
Ele
ct. G
en.
Tota
l Ene
rgy
Con
sum
ptio
nTo
tal E
nerg
yC
onsu
mpt
ion
26
North Latin Western EasternAmerica America Europe Europe
FIGURE 4. ESTIMATES OF TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
2005
2010
2020
2030
EJ
27
Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far EastSouth Asia & the Pacific
2005
2010
2020
2030
Total - High EstimateTotal - Low EstimateNuclear - High EstimateNuclear - Low Estimate
BLANK
29
TAB
LE 6
. TO
TAL
ENER
GY
REQ
UIR
EMEN
T (E
J) B
Y FU
EL T
YPE
IN 2
005
(*)
Cou
ntry
Gro
upSo
lids
(a)
Liqu
ids
Gas
esB
iom
ass
(b)
Hyd
roN
ucle
arR
enew
able
s (c
)To
tal
Nor
th A
mer
ica
44.9
5
24
.84
27.4
9
3.
24
2.
36
9.
46
0.
56
11
2.91
Lat
in A
mer
ica
14.0
8
1.
15
7.
57
5.
07
2.
35
0.
29
0.
30
30
.81
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
26.5
5
10
.01
19.0
6
2.
98
1.
80
9.
58
0.
68
70
.66
Eas
tern
Eur
ope
11.0
6
11
.78
27.1
7
1.
77
1.
10
3.
43
-0
.15
56.1
5
Afri
ca5.
43
5.
90
2.
73
15
.16
0.34
0.13
0.02
29.7
1
Mid
dle
East
and
Sou
th A
sia
18.6
7
11
.62
11.6
6
5.
77
0.
57
0.
20
0.
02
48
.51
Sou
th E
ast A
sia
and
the
Paci
fic9.
57
4.
27
5.
45
2.
84
0.
24
0.
22
22
.59
Far
Eas
t29
.38
52.2
7
8.
88
3.
60
1.
97
5.
55
0.
50
10
2.15
Wor
ld T
otal
159.
69
12
1.83
110.
02
40
.43
10.7
3
28
.65
2.15
473.
49
Not
es:
(*) T
otal
ene
rgy
requ
irem
ent =
pro
duct
ion
of p
rimar
y en
ergy
plu
s ne
t tra
de (i
mpo
rt –
exp
ort)
min
us in
tern
atio
nal b
unke
rs a
nd s
tock
cha
nges
. (a
) Sol
ids
do n
ot in
clud
e co
mm
erci
al w
ood.
(b) T
he c
olum
n he
aded
'Bio
mas
s' in
clud
es c
omm
erci
al w
ood,
com
bust
ible
rene
wab
les,
was
te a
nd o
ther
bio
mas
s pr
oduc
ts.
(c) T
he c
olum
n he
aded
'Ren
ewab
les'
incl
udes
geo
ther
mal
, win
d, s
olar
, tid
al e
nerg
y an
d ne
t ele
ctric
ity tr
ade.
30
North Latin Western EasternAmerica America Europe Europe
FIGURE 5. TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT BY FUEL TYPE IN 2005
0
20
40
60
80
100
120E
J
31
Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far EastSouth Asia & the Pacific
Liquids Solids Gases Biomass
Hydro Nuclear Renewables
32
FIGURE 6. BREAKDOWN OF WORLD TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT DURING THE PERIOD 1970 –2005
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1970 1975 1980 1985Year
EJ
33
1990 1995 2000 2005
Liquids Solids Gases
Biomass Hydro Nuclear
BLANK
35
TAB
LE 7
. FU
EL S
HA
RES
(%) O
F TO
TAL
ENER
GY
REQ
UIR
EMEN
T IN
200
5 (*
)C
ount
ry G
roup
Solid
s (a
)Li
quid
sG
ases
Bio
mas
s (b
)H
ydro
Nuc
lear
Ren
ewab
les
(c)
Tota
l
Nor
th A
mer
ica
39.8
1
22
.00
24.3
5
2.
87
2.
09
8.
38
0.
50
10
0.00
Lat
in A
mer
ica
45.7
0
3.
73
24
.57
16.4
5
7.
61
0.
96
0.
98
10
0.00
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
37.5
8
14
.16
26.9
7
4.
21
2.
55
13
.56
0.96
100.
00
Eas
tern
Eur
ope
19.6
9
20
.98
48.3
9
3.
15
1.
96
6.
10
-0
.27
100.
00
Afri
ca18
.27
19.8
5
9.
19
51
.02
1.14
0.45
0.07
100.
00
Mid
dle
East
and
Sou
th A
sia
38.4
9
23
.94
24.0
4
11
.90
1.18
0.41
0.03
100.
00
Sou
th E
ast A
sia
and
the
Paci
fic42
.39
18.8
9
24
.12
12.5
6
1.
07
0.
97
10
0.00
Far
Eas
t28
.76
51.1
7
8.
70
3.
52
1.
93
5.
43
0.
49
10
0.00
Wor
ld T
otal
33.7
3
25
.73
23.2
4
8.
54
2.
27
6.
05
0.
45
10
0.00
Not
es:
(*) T
otal
ene
rgy
requ
irem
ent =
pro
duct
ion
of p
rimar
y en
ergy
plu
s ne
t tra
de (i
mpo
rt –
exp
ort)
min
us in
tern
atio
nal b
unke
rs a
nd s
tock
cha
nges
. (a
) Sol
ids
do n
ot in
clud
e co
mm
erci
al w
ood.
(b) T
he c
olum
n he
aded
'Bio
mas
s' in
clud
es c
omm
erci
al w
ood,
com
bust
ible
rene
wab
les,
was
te a
nd o
ther
bio
mas
s pr
oduc
ts.
(c) T
he c
olum
n he
aded
'Ren
ewab
les'
incl
udes
geo
ther
mal
, win
d, s
olar
, tid
al e
nerg
y an
d ne
t ele
ctric
ity tr
ade.
36
5002 NI
Y FU
EL T
YPE
B N
OITARE
NEG YTI
CIRT
CELE R
OF )JE(FU
EL U
SE .8 EL
BAT
puorG yrtnuo
C)a( la
mrehTordy
Hraelcu
N)b( selba
weneR
latoT
acirem
A htroN
17.7263.2
64.965.0
90.04
acirem
A nitaL 14.4
53.292.0
23.073.7
eporuE nretse
W 90.51
08.185.9
84.059.62
eporuE nretsa
E 15.71
01.134.3
10.050.22
acirfA
05.443.0
31.030.0
10.5
aisA htuo
S dna tsaE elddi
M 63.61
75.002.0
10.041.71
cificaP eht dna ais
A tsaE htuo
S 46.6
42.012.0
90.7
tsaE raF
25.8279.1
55.505.0
45.63
latoT dlroW
47.02137.01
56.8221.2
32.261
: setoN
.etsaw dna ssa
moib ,sesag ,sdiuqil ,sdilos rof latot eht si 'lamrehT' dedaeh n
muloc ehT )a( .yg rene aldit dna ralos ,dni
w ,lamrehtoeg sedulcni 'selba
weneR' dedaeh n
muloc ehT )b(
37
TAB
LE 9
. PER
CEN
TAG
E C
ON
TRIB
UTI
ON
OF
EAC
H F
UEL
TYP
E TO
ELE
CTR
ICIT
Y G
ENER
ATIO
N IN
200
5C
ount
ry G
roup
Ther
mal
(a)
Hyd
roN
ucle
arR
enew
able
s (b
)To
tal
Nor
th A
mer
ica
66.4
8
14
.14
18.7
3
0.
65
10
0.00
Lat
in A
mer
ica
38.3
1
58
.37
2.42
0.90
100.
00
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
51.4
1
17
.05
29.3
3
2.
22
10
0.00
Eas
tern
Eur
ope
64.0
4
17
.70
18.2
2
0.
04
10
0.00
Afri
ca78
.81
18.4
7
2.
40
0.
31
10
0.00
Mid
dle
Eas
t and
Sou
th A
sia
85.3
5
12
.86
1.46
0.32
100.
00
Sou
th E
ast A
sia
and
the
Pac
ific
88.2
3
10
.68
1.08
100.
00
Far
Eas
t73
.81
13.3
8
12
.45
0.36
100.
00
Wor
ld T
otal
66.0
4
17
.66
15.5
1
0.
79
10
0.00
Not
es:
(a) T
he c
olum
n he
aded
'The
rmal
' is
the
tota
l for
sol
ids,
liqu
ids,
gas
es, b
iom
ass
and
was
te.
(b) T
he c
olum
n he
aded
'Ren
ewab
les'
incl
udes
geo
ther
mal
, win
d, s
olar
and
tida
l ene
rgy.
BLANK
39
TAB
LE 1
0. E
STIM
ATES
OF
POPU
LATI
ON
GR
OW
TH B
Y R
EGIO
N (*
)
Nor
th A
mer
ica
332
1.04
348
0.94
379
0.87
407
0.71
Latin
Am
eric
a55
8
1.
50
59
5
1.
26
65
9
1.
04
71
1
0.
76
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
468
0.44
475
0.29
484
0.19
488
0.09
East
ern
Euro
pe40
6
-0
.17
402
-0.2
0
39
3
-0
.22
380
-0.3
5
Afric
a88
8
2.
30
98
4
2.
08
11
88
1.
90
13
98
1.
64
Mid
dle
East
and
Sou
th A
sia
1674
1.87
1816
1.65
2091
1.42
2325
1.07
Sout
h Ea
st A
sia
and
the
Paci
fic40
5
1.
41
42
8
1.
12
46
9
0.
91
50
0
0.
64
Far E
ast
1719
0.86
1778
0.68
1872
0.52
1914
0.22
Wor
ld T
otal
6450
1.44
6827
1.14
7535
0.99
8123
0.75
(*) P
roje
ctio
n fig
ures
are
the
arith
met
ic a
vera
ge b
etw
een
low
and
hig
h es
timat
es.
Gro
wth
Rat
e (%
/a)
2010
— 2
020
Gro
wth
Rat
e (%
/a)
2020
— 2
030
Milli
on In
habi
tant
s
2005
2010
2020
2030
Cou
ntry
Gro
upM
illion
Inha
bita
nts
Milli
on In
habi
tant
sM
illion
Inha
bita
nts
Gro
wth
Rat
e (%
/a)
1995
— 2
005
Gro
wth
Rat
e (%
/a)
2005
— 2
010
40
North Latin Western EasternAmerica America Europe Europe
FIGURE 7. POPULATION ESTIMATES
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2005
2010
2020
2030
Mill
ions
of I
nhab
itant
s
41
Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far EastSouth Asia & the Pacific
2005
2010
2020
2030
BLANK
43
TAB
LE 1
1. E
STIM
ATES
OF
TOTA
L EN
ERG
Y A
ND
ELE
CTR
ICIT
Y R
EQU
IREM
ENT
PER
CA
PITA
Nor
th A
mer
ica
340
13.9
332
—35
0 13
.6
—14
.3
326
—36
8 13
.6
—14
.3
326
—39
1 14
.9
—18
.2
Latin
Am
eric
a55
2.0
58
—62
2.
0 —
2.2
66
—84
2.
0 —
2.2
77
—11
6 3.
1 —
4.8
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
151
6.4
154
—15
8 6.
7 —
7.0
160
—17
3 6.
7 —
7.0
169
—19
3 7.
7 —
11.3
Eas
tern
Eur
ope
138
4.2
146
—15
5 4.
5 —
4.8
170
—20
2 4.
5 —
4.8
197
—25
8 6.
2 —
10.0
Afri
ca33
0.6
33
—35
0.
6 —
0.6
33
—39
0.
6 —
0.6
34
—44
0.
7 —
1.1
Mid
dle
Eas
t and
Sou
th A
sia
29
0.
7
30
—
32
0.7
—0.
8 34
—
41
0.7
—0.
8 38
—
52
1.0
—1.
6
Sou
th E
ast A
sia
and
the
Pac
ific
56
1.
6
58
—
64
1.7
—1.
7 65
—
82
1.7
—1.
7 75
—
106
2.3
—3.
0
Far E
ast
59
2.
4
63
—
68
2.4
—2.
8 73
—
92
2.4
—2.
8 86
—
124
3.3
—5.
9
Wor
ld A
vera
ge73
2.6
74
—79
2.
6 —
2.8
78
—93
2.
6 —
2.8
84
—11
2 3.
1 —
4.7
Cou
ntry
Gro
upE
nerg
y R
equi
rem
ent p
er
Cap
ita (G
J/ca
p.)
2020
Ene
rgy
Req
uire
men
t per
C
apita
(GJ/
cap.
)
Ele
ctric
ity
Req
uire
men
t per
C
apita
(MW
·h/c
ap)
2030
Ene
rgy
Req
uire
men
t per
C
apita
(GJ/
cap.
)
Ele
ctric
ity
Req
uire
men
t per
C
apita
(MW
·h/c
ap)
2005
2010
Ele
ctric
ity
Req
uire
men
t per
C
apita
(MW
·h/c
ap)
Ene
rgy
Req
uire
men
t per
C
apita
(GJ/
cap.
)
Ele
ctric
ity
Req
uire
men
t per
C
apita
(MW
·h/c
ap)
44
North Latin Western EasternAmerica America Europe Europe
FIGURE 8. TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT PER CAPITA
0
100
200
300
400
2005
2010
2020
2030
GJ
per c
apita
45
Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far EastSouth Asia & the Pacific
2005
2010
2020
2030
High EstimateLow Estimate
46
North Latin Western EasternAmerica America Europe Europe
FIGURE 9. TOTAL ELECTRICITY REQUIREMENT PER CAPITA
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2005
2010
2020
2030
MW
·h p
er c
apita
47
Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far EastSouth Asia & the Pacific
2005
2010
2020
2030
High EstimateLow Estimate
BLANK
49
TAB
LE 1
2. A
VER
AG
E A
NN
UA
L G
RO
WTH
RAT
ES D
UR
ING
TH
E PE
RIO
D 1
995–
2005
(%)
Cou
ntry
Gro
upPo
pula
tion
Tota
l Ene
rgy
Req
uire
men
tTo
tal E
lect
ricity
R
equi
rem
ent
Nuc
lear
Ene
rgy
Con
sum
ptio
nN
ucle
ar C
apac
ity
Nor
th A
mer
ica
1.0
1.2
1.8
1.3
-0.4
Lat
in A
mer
ica
1.5
2.3
3.6
4.1
3.7
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
0.4
1.2
2.0
1.1
0.1
Eas
tern
Eur
ope
-0.2
0.4
0.8
3.0
0.7
0 A
frica
2.3
4.9
3.9
0.8
Mid
dle
Eas
t and
Sou
th A
sia
1.9
4.3
4.7
10.1
6.4
——
Sou
th E
ast A
sia
and
the
Pac
ific
1.4
3.3
4.1
Far
Eas
t0.
9
3.
4
6.
0
2.
5
3.
1
Wor
ld A
vera
ge1.
3
2.
2
3.
0
1.
7
0.
7
50
North Latin Western EasternAmerica America Europe Europe
FIGURE 10. AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATES DURING THE PERIOD 1995 –2005
-6
0
6
12
Ann
ual G
row
th R
ate
(%)
Population
Total Energy RequirementTotal Electricity Requirement
Nuclear Energy Requirement
51
Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far EastSouth Asia & the Pacific
BLANK
53
TABL
E 13
. EST
IMAT
ES O
F AV
ERAG
E AN
NUAL
GRO
WTH
RAT
ES D
URIN
G T
HE P
ERIO
D 20
05—
2030
(%)
Coun
try G
roup
Popu
latio
n
Nor
th A
mer
ica
0.8
0.
7 —
1.4
1.
1 —
1.9
0.
6 —
1.5
0.
5 —
1.4
Lat
in A
mer
ica
1.0
2.
3 —
4.0
2.
8 —
4.6
2.
1 —
6.7
1.
5 —
6.0
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
0.2
0.
6 —
1.2
0.
9 —
2.5
-3
.4
—1.
1
-3.7
—
0.7
Eas
tern
Eur
ope
-0.3
1.
2 —
2.2
1.
3 —
3.2
2.
2 —
3.5
1.
9 —
3.2
Afri
ca1.
8
1.9
—3.
0
2.4
—4.
4
1.5
—8.
1
0.7
—7.
2
Mid
dle
East
and
Sou
th A
sia
1.3
2.
4 —
3.7
2.
5 —
4.4
8.
8 —
11.9
7.
9 —
10.9
Sou
th E
ast A
sia
and
the
Paci
fic0.
8
2.1
—3.
5
2.4
—3.
6
Far
Eas
t0.
4
1.9
—3.
4
1.8
—4.
2
2.4
—3.
9
2.1
—3.
7
Wor
ld A
vera
ge0.
9
1.5
—2.
6
1.6
—3.
3
0.6
—2.
6
0.5
—2.
5
Tota
l Ene
rgy
Requ
irem
ent
Tota
l Ele
ctric
ity
Cons
umpt
ion
Nucl
ear E
nerg
y Pr
oduc
tion
Nucl
ear C
apac
ity
I N T E R N AT I O N A L AT O M I C E N E R G Y A G E N C YV I E N N A
I S B N 9 2 - 0 - 1 0 7 0 0 6 - 3I S S N 1 0 1 1 - 2 6 4 2