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Energy-Efficient Building in Germany:
Opportunities for Swedish Innovators
June 2015
Henning Ellermann
Senior Manager Energy Efficiency & Green Building
www.gtai.com
Germany Trade & Invest
Germany Trade & Invest (GTAI) is the official foreign trade and inward
investment promotion agency of the Federal Republic of Germany.
www.gtai.com
The inward investment promotion agency of the Federal Republic of
Germany helps you establish your presence in Europe‘s leading economy.
Source: Eurostat 2014
Note: EU-28’s center: 42 km east of Frankfurt/Main in Meerholz, Hessen
Germany Trade & Invest
05.06.2015
Europe’s largest industrial and building technology clusters are waiting for your investment.
From Germany, nearly all of Europe can be reached by air in 3 hours and by road in 24 hours (flight, truck, and railway hours from Berlin).
24 h
3 h
1.5 h
Rome
12 h
London
Moscow
48 h
24 h
Warsaw
Prague
Berlin
Vienna Budapest
Brussels
Madrid
Riga
Helsinki
Athens
Copenhagen
Paris
Stockholm
EU member states
Non-EU member states
2013 EU28 Germany
Population mn 505 80
GDP (in EUR bn) 13,075 2,738
GDP Growth (YoY) 0.1% 0.4%
Inflation 1.5% 1.6%
Unemployment 10.8% 5.3%
Headquarters and Sales Offices
www.gtai.com
Complete your project management needs from our range of free
investment and one-stop project consultancy services.
Germany Trade & Invest
05.06.2015 4
Project Management Assistance
Location Consulting/Site Evaluation
Project partner
identification and
contact
Business opportunity analysis
and market research
Market entry
strategy support
Joint project
management with
regional
development
agency
Coordination and
support of
negotiations with
local authorities
Final site decision
support Site preselection
Identification of project-
specific location factors
Cost factor
analysis
Site visit
organization
Organization of
meetings with legal
advisors and
financial partners
Identification of relevant tax
and legal issues
Project-related
financing and
incentives
consultancy
Administrative
affairs support
Accompanying
incentives
application and
establishment
formalities
Decision & Investment Evaluation Strategy
Support Services
www.gtai.com
Energy efficiency trumps all other home features for Germans.
Image: © Nerthuz – www.istockphoto.com; Source: E.ON 2014
Energy-Efficient Building in Germany
05.06.2015 5
Do not know, no data
Tasteful interior furnishing
Roomy, with lots of space
Latest technology
Robust and durableappliances
Barrier-free living
Garden, terrace, balcony
Energy efficiency
2%
4%
6%
7%
8%
12%
28%
34%
What is important to Germans when building a house?
www.gtai.com 05.06.2015 6
1. Energy Efficiency Status Quo
2. Energy Efficiency Market Drivers
3. Market Trends: Buildings
www.gtai.com
Primary Energy Efficiency in Germany
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
GDP PEC Energy Productivity Energy Intensity
Base year = 1990
Germany aims to decouple economic growth and energy consumption –
much has been achieved but the potential is still vast.
Source: Authors‘ own graph; data source: AGEB (Working Group on Energy Balances), 2013
7
Average change in % p.a.
Increase 1990 to 2012 in percentage points
+ 1.85 + 50
+ 1.44 + 37
- 0.4 - 9
- 1.82 - 33
www.gtai.com
Energy Efficiency in Comparison
-3,0
-2,5
-2,0
-1,5
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
Efficiency effect Structure effect
Averag
e a
nn
ual
ch
an
ge in
%
Changes in aggregate energy intensities, decomposed into
structure and efficiency effects, 1990-2010
8
Germany has achieved real efficiency gains.
Source: IEA 2013
05.06.2015 www.gtai.com
Germany is among the world leaders in energy efficiency.
Source: ACEEE 2014
Energy Efficiency in Comparison
9
www.gtai.com 05.06.2015 10
1. Energy Efficiency Status Quo
2. Energy Efficiency Market Drivers
3. Market Trends: Buildings
www.gtai.com
Driver 1: Energy Prices
Source: Destatis 2014
05.06.2015 11
High and rising energy prices mean investment in energy efficiency yield
attractive returns
Energy Prices for 2003-2013 with Compound Annual Growth Rates (€ct/kWh)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Residental Electricity Industrial Electricity Residental Gas Industrial Gas Residental Heating Oil
+6,75 %
+4,21 %
+5,18 %
CAGR
+5,56 %
+8,86 %
www.gtai.com
Three key pillars of success:
1. Integration of a growing share of renewable energy sources
2. Nuclear power phase-out by 2022
3. Ambitious energy efficiency targets to decouple economic growth
and energy consumption
Doubling of deep refurbishment rate to 2% of housing stock
Almost climate-neutral building stock by 2050
Primary energy consumption cut in half by 2050
Energiewende = Transition towards a more sustainable energy system
Driver 2: Policy – Energiewende
05.06.2015 12
+ EPBD & EED implementation
www.gtai.com
Germany’s national energy goals exceed those set by the EU (“20/20/20”)
Market Driver 1: Germany’s Energiewende
05.06.2015 13
Energy efficiency measures
Increase in energy productivity 2.1% p.a.
Reduction of primary energy consumption -50% (2050 vs. 2008)
Reduction of electricity consumption -25% (2050 vs. 2008)
Building renovation rate 2% p.a.
Reduction of final energy for transportation -40% (2050 vs. 2005)
Climate protection measures 2020 2050
CO2 cuts vs. 1990 -40% -80%
Renewable share of… 2020 2050
Total energy consumption 18% 60%
Electricity consumption 35% 80%
Heat generation 14% 60%
www.gtai.com
Key components:
Additional 1.2B EUR/year in funding for building upgrades
Could stimulate 10-12B EUR/year in investment
New program specifically for commercial buildings
Competitive tenders for electricity-savings from 2015
Industry and commerce: new sectoral efficiency campaigns and networks
Comprehensive building stock strategy developed until end of 2015
Cabinet approved NAPE on December 3rd, 2014
National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency (NAPE)
05.06.2015 14
www.gtai.com
Due to the nuclear disaster in Fukushima in
2011, closure of nuclear power plants was
brought forward from 2036 to 2022
8 out of 17 nuclear power plants were
already shut down in 2011
2011: 17.6% nuclear power of total energy
consumption (2010: 22.6%)1
Germany‘s nuclear power phase-out
1) Quelle: BMWi „Die Energiewende in Deutschland“, Februar 2012
2) Quelle: DAtF, 2012
Active nuclear reactor with
date of scheduled closure
Nuclear reactor already closed
Berlin
Hamburg
Cologne
Munich
Stuttgart
Frankfurt
2021
2022
2021
2021
2017 2022
20192022
201521.547
4.285
0 0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2010 2011 2012 2015 2019 2021 2022 2023
Development of installed nuclear power plants
capacity in MW2
22.6 % of
electricity
generation
(2010)
In 2012:
99 TWh electricty produced which accounts for
16% of nuclear power!
www.gtai.com
Future electricity mix in Germany will be based on Wind and PV
Energiewende in Germany
05.06.2015 16
05.06.2015 | www.gtai.com
Total capacity of renewables (End 2000)
Wind energy
PV
Biomass
The circle diameter is proportional
to the electrical capacity
~ 30,000 installations
Sources: 50HertzT, TenneT, Amprion, TransnetBW, internal data
~ 221,000 installations
Total capacity of renewables (End 2005)
~ 750,000 installations
Total capacity of renewables (End 2010)
~ 1.300.000 installations
Total capacity of renewables (End 2012)
Renewable Energy Revolution
www.gtai.com
The German Wind Energy Market
Total installed wind power 20142) 39,165 MW
Total installed wind turbines onshore 20142) 24,867
Newly installed wind power onshore 20142)
Market growth 2014
4,750 MW 58%
Repowering share in new onshore installation 20142) 1,148 MW
Total connected wind power offshore 20142) 1,049 MW
Newly installed offshore capacity 20142) 1,218 MW
Electricity generation 20133) 53.4 bn kWh
Employees in Germany 20124) 117,900
Share of German electricity demand 20145) 10%
Top 10 New Installed Capacity 20141)
Germany's wind energy market in numbers
Sources: 1) GWEC 2015 2) Deutsche WindGuard 2014, 2015 3) DEWI/Deutsche Wind Guard /Arbeitsgruppe Energiebilanz, 2014; 4) Federal Ministry for the
Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety 2013 5) BDEW 2015
18
China 45.2%
France 2%
Brazil 4.8%
UK 3.4%
India 4.5%
Turkey 1,6%
Germany 10.2%
USA 9.4%
Canada 3.6%
Sweden 2%
Rest of World 13%
www.gtai.com
Current Status of Offshore Wind Developments
Development of Offshore Wind in Germany
Source: WindGuard 2015
5 June 2015 19
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
OWTs with Grid Connection - Annual Additions (left axis)
OWTs with Grid Connection - Cumulative Capacity (right axis)
Germany 1.900 Rest of
Europe 6000
China 12000
Japan 9000
USA 6000
Rest of World
7000
Total ~ 42 GWp
The German PV Market 2014
Germany is the largest PV market in Europe with the strongest private
customer segment
German PV Market 20142 Estimated PV Installations 2014 [MWp1]
Sources: 1) Preliminary estimations by PV-Magazine, Solarserver, IHS, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 2) Preliminary numbers from BDEW 2015, Federal Network Agency 2015, BMU 2015; Fraunhofer ISE 2015
• Newly installed PV power 1.9 GWp
• Number of newly installed PV systems 75,000
• Total installed PV power 38 GWp
• Total number of PV systems installed 1.5 Million
• PV electricity production 35,2 TWh
• Share of final electricity consumption 6.1 %
• FIT commitment for 52 GWp
* Model calculation for rooftop systems, based on 802 kWh/kWp (Frankfurt/Main), 100% financing, 6% interest rate, 20 year term, 2% p.a. O&M costs
** based on 5,000 cycles , 87% efficiency
Sources: System Prices: BSW 2015; Model Calculation: Deutsche Bank 2010; Electricity Prices 2007-2013: Eurostat 2013.
With fruther increasing electricity prices and decreasing PV system costs,
the business case for storage is becoming better and better
Prognosis
0,70
0,90
1,10
1,30
1,50
1,70
1,90
2,10
2,30
2,50
2,70
2,90
3,10
3,30
3,50
3,70
3,90
4,10
4,30
4,50
4,70
4,90
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
0,25
0,30
0,35
0,40
0,45
0,50
0,55
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2012 2013
EU
R/k
Wh
Electricity price for households [2.5-5 MWh/a] Electricity costs for PV + Battery** Electricity costs for PV*
From Grid-Parity to Battery-Parity
Grid Parity = Competitiveness
Wattage
Time of day
0h 3h 6h 9h 12h 15h 18h 21h 24h
Energy from grid
Competitiveness of solar = new business opportunities!
PV Energy
Energy Demand
„Own-Consumption“ of PV Energy
Notes: 1) Depending on size /type of system; Min. to max . tariff in 2013 of new EEG 2012 2) Depending on electricity retail price of respective utility company.
www.gtai.com |
7 october, 2014
Market for storage and smart grid technologies
*Source: EEX 2013 (http://www.transparency.eex.com)
Punctual overcapacities in electricity production through fluctuating RES Increasing volatility of electricity prices!
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
00:00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00
MW
Solar Wind Non-Fluctuating
€/MWh
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
00:00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00
MW
Solar Wind Non-Fluctuating
€/MWh
Electricity generation in Germany June 16th 2013 @ ~34 GWp installed PV capacity
www.gtai.com
*Source: ISE 2015 (http://www.energy-charts.de)
Eclipse on March 20th had no effect on German‘s grid stability due to excellent forecasting & compensation
Example for critical grid situations: Eclipse 2015 G
W
Electricity production in Germany, week 12th 2015:* Eclipse on March
20th 2015
PV Wind Net imports Non-fluctuating
www.gtai.com *Source: Agora Energiewende 2015
Simulation of German grid in 2022: Daily & seasonal fluctuations increase
Ensuring grid stability in the future
PV Wind Biomass Fossiles
GW
GW
G
W
GW
February (week 6th) April (week 14th)
August (week 33th) November (week 47th)
Electriciy demand
Large-scale batteries balancing the grid
Installed battery capacity in Germany for primary control provision
1 1 1 1
1 1 1
2 2 2
5 5
10 10
2.235
0.76 0,76
2 2
5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
2012 2013 2014 2015
Aachen, Eon Energy Research Centre atRWTH Aachen University (Li-ion, high-temperature, lead-acid)Dresden, Younicos & DREWAG (Li-ion)
Pellworm, EON & Schleswig-Holstein NetzAG, Hybrid (Li-ion, Redox-flow)
Braderup, Bosch, Hybrid (Li-ion, Redox-flow)
Feldheim, Energiequelle GmbH, Li-Ion
Schwerin, Younicos & Wemag, Li-Ion
Berlin, Younicos & Vattenfall, LiFePo
Berlin, Younicos & Vattenfall, Hybrid (Li-Ion, NAS)
Völklingen-Fenne, Evonik, Li-Ion
Source: IEK-STE Database, Energiespeicher Jülich 26
www.gtai.com
Hybrid Power Plant – Continuous Energy Supply
Enertrag Hybrid Power Plant – Sustainable and clean electricity & heat
Source: http://www.bi-bigben.de/elements/hybridkraftwerk1.jpg
Electricity
Unused
Electricity
(Produced at
Night)
Electricity
Hydrogen
Production via
Electrolysis
Hydrogen
Hydrogen
Hydrogen
Hydrogen
Storage
Filling
Station
Biogas Storage
Biogas (from Corn)
Mixing Valve
Variable Mixture
Grid
2 Cogeneration
Plants
Heat
District
Heating
www.gtai.com
Power to Gas pilot plant and H2 Filling Stations
28
An enormous expansion of the high voltage grid system is required by
2024.
*Costs estimates per NEP-Draft 2014 49GW/12GW wind onshore/offshore
Source: TSO 2014
Expansion of the electricity grid in Germany
Expansion and Reinforcement
Transmission grid
Grid expansion and Reinforcement of 8,700km is
required by 2024
Baseline scenario with overhead lines requires:
22 bn €*
Additionally the connection of the offshore-grid is
estimated to
10-12 bn €
Grid Expansion Distance in Km.
DC-New Construction 2,200
AC-New Construction 1,300
DC/AC- Grid Reinforcement
5,200
29
www.gtai.com
Power balance 2012
New power structure in 2022 will lead to bottlenecks in Germany
Offshore-
Wind parks
Power balance 2022
Source: Netzentwicklungsplan 2012
The electricity grid in Germany: Bottlenecks ahead!
05.06.2015 | www.gtai.com
The E-Energy Vision for a Smart Grid
Energiewende- Longterm scenario
Source: E-Energy
www.e-energy.de/en
www.gtai.com
New approaches enable new markets and can disrupt old ones
Driver 3: Innovation
05.06.2015 32
ICT
Data
Financing
Processes Policy
Materials Business
Models
www.gtai.com 05.06.2015 33
1. Energy Efficiency Status Quo
2. Energy Efficiency Market Drivers
3. Market Trends: Buildings
www.gtai.com
Driver 3: Europe‘s Leading Construction Market
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Residential new Residential refurbishment
Volume of residential construction in
Germany, in EUR billions
Volume of non-residential construction
in Germany, in EUR billions
The refurbishment segment is growing and will continue to dominate
construction investments – smart retrofit solutions are needed!
Source: DIW 2013 , Heinze Marktforschung , BBSR *Prognosis GTAI
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Non-residential new Non-residential refurbishment
Germany Trade & Invest
www.gtai.com
Forecast: Need for More New Housing …
05.06.2015 35
… with significant regional differences and continuing urbanization
in (Semi-) Detached Houses in Apartment Buildings
Expected average annual construction of residential units per 10,000 inhabitants, 2015-20
no construction necessary 20 < 30
0 < 10 30 < 40
10 < 20 40 <
Source: BBSR 2015
www.gtai.com
Solid Commercial Buildings Market
Total number and floor space of newly
constructed non-residential buildings
Share of building types constructed
(based on usable floor area), 2012
A dependable non-residential building sector continues to be a steadying
factor in the economy. This makes Germany an attractive location for
risk-averse investors.
Source: Destatis 2014
05.06.2015 36
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
Number of buildings
Usable floor space in 1,000 sq.m
4% 8%
19%
17%
34%
2%
16%
Hospitals,schools, etc.
Office
Agricultural
Factories /workshops
Retail /warehousing
Hotels
Other
www.gtai.com
German Building Stock in Need of Renovation
40 mln residential units – the largest housing stock in Europe
Political goal: An almost climate-neutral building stock by 2050
Source: Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Development, BBSR dena, Foundation New Responsibility
05.06.2015 37
70% built before 1979
75% not or only partially refurbished for energy efficiency
75% owner-occupied or rented out by small-scale landlords
55% of households rent!
50% of housing stock up for refurbishment in next 20 years!
Multi-family
15.4 mln
bldgs.
3.2 mln
bldgs.
~2 mln
bldgs.
(Semi-) detached Commercial
www.gtai.com
Diversified Housing Stock
Heated Building Stock in Germany (estimates)
Europe‘s largest building stock is waiting for renovation
Source: Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Development 2013; BBSR 2011; own calculations
05.06.2015 38
40 Mio. Residential Units (RU), 75% of which where built
before 1979
10 million RU Commercial Landlords
14.5 million RU ‘Amateur’, small-scale
Landlords
16 million RU Owner-Occupiers
18 Mio. Residential Buildings
13 million RU (Semi-) Detached
House
3 Mio. RU Multi-Family House
5.5 million RU Subletters of Own-
Occupiers
9 million RU ‘Amateur Landlords’
1 million RU Other (Banks, Fonds,
etc.)
2 million RU Housing Cooperatives
4 million RU Private Companies
2 million RU Commercial Housing
Companies
1.7 million (est.) Non-Residential Buildings
650,000 Commerce & Warehousing
360,000 Factories & Workshops
200,000 Office Buildings
45,000 Schools & Universities
35,000 Sports Facilities
380,000 Other NRBs (e.g.
mixed use)
www.gtai.com
German Building Stock
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
>0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375 >400
Rela
tive f
req
uen
cy (
in %
)
Area-specific energy consumption (in [kWh/m²])
Better than
EnEV 2009
Worse than
EnEV 2009
Distribution of energy consumption in housing stock (2011)
Only a fraction of Germany‘s building stock is truly energy-efficient.
Source: Dena 2012
05.06.2015 39
www.gtai.com
Building Energy Performance Regulation
40
Germany uses a mix of requirements, information, and incentives to
improve the performance of the building stock
Maximum allowed primary energy needs in new bldgs – NZEB from 2021 (EU)
Regulation of permitted heat transmission losses of the building envelope (and of components after major refurbishments)
Performance standards for building technologies (HVAC) + mandatory renewable heating in new buildings
Mandatory energy performance
certificates (EU) Attractive incentive programs for those
who go beyond minimum standards!
Germany Trade & Invest 21.10.2014
www.gtai.com
Final Energy Consumption
Private households (2012)
55,2%
15,1% 5,6%
15,2%
3,5%
5,4%
Commerce, Services and
Trade (2012)
Heat dominates final energy consumption both of private households and non-
residential buildings.
Source: AGEB 2013
05.06.2015 41
74,4%
1,9%
3,7% 0,5% 4,3%
15,2%
73%
1,5% 1,3%
21,9%
1,4%
0,9%
Space Heating & Process Heat
Lighting
ICT
Mechanical Energy
Climatization & Process Cooling
Hot Water
Industry (2012)
www.gtai.com
Development of Energy-Efficient Building
Minimum Energy Efficiency Requirements for New Buildings in Germany
Integrated approach of R&D, incentives, information, and standards pulls
and pushes the market towards more efficient technologies.
42 Germany Trade & Invest 21.10.2014
www.gtai.com
EnEV Reference Residential Building, 2009-2015
German Energy Efficiency Regulation
05.06.2015 43
Roof/Top Floor
Uref= 0.2W/(m²W)
R= 5 (m²K)/W) Solar Device for
Hot Water Supply
Mechanical
Ventilation
Exterior Wall
Uref= 0.28 W/(m²K)
R= 3.57 (m²K)/W
Basement Ceiling/Bottom Plate
Uref= 0.35 W/(m²K)
R= 2.86 (m²K)/W Basement Wall
Against Earth or
Unheated Rooms
Uref= 0.35 W/(m²K)
R= 2.86 (m²K)/W
Heating and Hot Water Condensing
Boiler Technology 55°/45°C
Thermal Bridge
UWB= 0.05 W/(m²K)
Windows
Uref= 1.3 W/(m²K)
gref= 0.6
R= 0.77 (m²K)/W
www.gtai.com
Federal Gov‘t - Energy Efficiency Incentives
22.10.2014 44
1.8 billion EUR annually are currently budgeted for incentives in this field.
Those who strive for higher efficiency receive more money from KFW bank.
Energy-Efficient
Buildings & Infrastructure
Construction of new
buildings
Preferential KfW Loans
Repayment Grants for KfW
Loans
Renovation of buildings
Grants for Energy Audits
KfW Loans for Renovation Expenses
Grants for Renovation Expenses
Communities,
Municipalities
Grants for Renovation
Project Mgmt.
KfW Loans for Infrastructure
Upgrades
www.gtai.com
In 2012 a total of 211,000 new residential
units were constructed
Almost 55% (about 115,000) of all new
units received support by KfW loans,
because they were at least 30% more
energy-efficient than the building code
stipulated
That is a total saving of 360 GWh of
energy annually
German Energy Efficiency Incentives
KfW 100:
45.4% KfW 70:
39.8%
KfW 55:
10.3%
KfW 40:
4.5%
2012
KfW 70/ 55/ 40: only 70%/ 55%/ 40% of the energy a standard
building requires are used; building overfulfills EnEV 2009
KfW 100: building fulfills current EnEV 2009; does not get loans
KfW loans in new residental unit
construction
More than half of German new buildings already overcomply with 2016
building code.
Source: IWU 2013
05.06.2015 45
www.gtai.com
German Energy Efficiency Incentives
+55.000
+48.000
+49.000
+64.000
+84.000
+81.000
+115.000
+155.000
+89.000
+134.000
+363.000
+344.000
+181.000
+242.000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
0
200.000
400.000
600.000
800.000
1.000.000
1.200.000
1.400.000
1.600.000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
En
erg
y s
avin
g in
GW
h p
.a.
Resid
en
tial u
nit
s
New units
Retrofitted units
Energy saving
Support by KfW loans for newly constructed and retrofitted residential
units (2006 – 2012)
Source: IWU 2013, KfW 2013
05.06.2015 46
Incentives stimulate retrofit investments on a massive scale and lead to
significant energy savings.
www.gtai.com
Heat Recovery Ventilation (HRV) Market
German domestic HRV market, number of units installed 2010 - 2013
The market for central HRV systems is growing rapidly as new buildings
become increasingly airtight and renewable heat sources are required
Source: FGK 2014
05.06.2015 47
23760
33300
36360
39240
1295 1805 2210 2455
25060
35106
38570
41695
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
2010 2011 2012 2013
Central HRV Combined Units: Central HRV + Heat Pump Total
www.gtai.com
13.1
16.5 24.1
33.7
42.3
52.4
65.5
81.3
99.2
119.6
142.6
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
LED Lamps Revenues in Germany
(2008-2018)
The German Market for Energy-Efficient Lighting
According to recent forecasts, the huge growth of the German LED
market will continue at very high rates (CAGR 2008-2018: 27%).
LED Lighting in Germany
US-$ Million Annual Growth
48 March 2014
Source: Frost & Sullivan 2012
www.gtai.com
Heating Structure of the Housing Stock (2010)
Source: BDEW 2011
The German Heating Market
05.06.2015 49
18,7 mill. units
11,3 mill. units
4,8 mill. units
2,3 mill. units 1 mill. units
Natural Gas
Heating Oil
District Heating
Electricity
Others (e.g. coal)
Overall housing units:
~ 39 mill.
Move towards NG, HP & hybrid solutions!
www.gtai.com
1 Smart Home Deutschland e.V. 2011; 2 DFH Trendbarometer 2012
50
Germany is Europe‘s well-established, largest market for (premium) smart
home solutions, but the market landscape is changing dramatically.
Source: Karpathy, Z. (2012): Smart Building & Home Technology Market Trends.
Germany
48%
France
10%
UK
8%
Switzerl.
6%
Spain
5%
Norway
5%
Austria
4%
Rest of
Europe 14%
European Smart Home / Home Automation Market,
2011
On the Way to a Mass Market for Smart Homes?
German smart home market prognosis:
EUR 2.3bn by 2015,
EUR 19bn by 2025 1
Smart Home standard in upscale homes
by 2025 (VDE)
> 50% of future home builders willing
to spend up to EUR 8,000 extra for
smart tech for energy efficiency,
comfort and safety&security2
Pre-fab housing companies already
deliver 35% of houses as smart ex
factory
Germany Trade & Invest 17.10.2014
www.gtai.com
Industry offering is diversifying and addressing new segments.
Source: Fokusgruppe Connected Home, Deloitte, Smarthome Deutschland
Smart Home Market Trends 2014/2015
05.06.2015 51
Premium Segment
Volume Market
Gadgets Market
Premium Segment
Volume Market
Gadgets Market
• Comparatively mature market with established suppliers
• High quality, always involving skilled electricians, spare parts available long-term, mostly cable-based
• Almost only high-end residential and commercial newbuilts
• New services and platforms, alliances creating standards
• Growing media presence due to increased activities of innovative, well-known tech companies
• Wireless, often using EnOcean, ZigBee, Z-Wave etc.
• Both newbuilt and retrofit, more DIY / retail options
• Spread of smartphones & tablets, networked devices
• Partial solutions, not always interoperable
• Retail market, few skilled craftspeople involved
www.gtai.com
Smart Home Market Prognosis
0
500
1000
1500
2013 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020*
315 360
430
500
600
720
860
1000
400
500
660
810
1000
1200
1450
Nu
mb
er o
f S
mart
Ho
me h
ou
seh
old
s
(in
th
ou
san
ds)
Conservative Progressive
Number of Smart Home Households (in thousands): Conservative and
Progressive Scenarios
Smart home is transitioning from niche to mass market product,
breakthrough expected for 2015/2016
Note: *) Prognosis Source: Deloitte/BITKOM 2014
05.06.2015 52
www.gtai.com
Heating
controls
Energy management systems (EMS) are the key driver for smarter
buildings – offering both comfort and tangible savings
Images: Netatmo, Solarworld, QIVICON
HEMS/BEMS
05.06.2015 53
HEMS
Consumption
monitoring &
optimization
(PV, storage)
Smart Home (integrated or platform)
BEMS BACS strong already, but BEMS/BACS integration next step
www.gtai.com
Decision about
roll-out
strategy likely
this summer!
Smart Meter Roll-out Offers New Possibilities
54
The German Energy Economy Law (§21c, §21b, §21d, §21e, §21f, §21i)
already has requirements in place for a Smart Meter roll-out.
Picture Source: Landis + Gyr
Smart Meters are already
required for:
Buildings newly connected to
the energy supply grid or
buildings undergoing large
renovations.
End users whose annual energy
use exceeds 6,000 kWh.
New (from 2011) power
generating facilities with a
capacity exceeding 7 kW.
Under current legislation,
23% of Germany‘s 50
million meters would be
smart by 2022.
EU requirement to prepare
large roll-out by 2022
Government-commissioned cost-
benefit analysis recommends:
Extending requirements to
existing RE facilities and
gradually replacing all meters
with intelligent meters that can
be upgraded to full Smart
Metering Systems (SMS)
50 million intelligent meters
and SMS until 2029 for
electricity (100%)
14 million intelligent meters
for gas by 2029
Germany Trade & Invest 28.03.2014
www.gtai.com
Is this the future? From pilot project to market in under 4 years …
homes that produce more energy per year than they consume.
Sources: BMVI, WeberHaus
Plus Energy Houses
05.06.2015 55
www.gtai.com
Packaging and standardization
that makes total refurbishment
cost-effective
Financial/policy innovation
More integrated look at cities
and neighborhoods
Broader understanding of
sustainability
What we need (and are working on):
A To-Do List
05.06.2015 56
Source: Creative Commons
www.gtai.com
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