___________________________________________________________________________

2011/SOM1/EWG/WKSP3/017 Agenda Item: III-C-4(e)

Energy Efficiency for Urban Transport - Continuing Programs in Distributed Transit

Submitted by: Toyota

APEC Cooperative Energy Efficiency Design for Sustainability - Energy Efficient

Urban Passenger TransportationSan Francisco, United States

14–16 September 2011

 

APEC USA 2011Energy Efficiency For Urban Transport

APEC USA 2011Energy Efficiency For Urban Transport

Bill Reinert

Advanced Technology Group,

Toyota Motor Sales, USA, INC

September 15, 2011

Continuing Programs in Distributed Transit

AgendaAgenda

Future Energy

Future Vehicles

Future Society

Today Today –– 22 4 Additional by 20504 Additional by 2050

New York, NY18.65M

Los Angeles, CA12.22M

2006 citymayors.com

Atlanta, GA

Miami, FLDallas –Fort Worth, TX

Chicago, IL

On One Hand: Growing Megacities (>10M)On One Hand: Growing Megacities (>10M)

On the Other Hand: Populations are SpreadingOn the Other Hand: Populations are Spreading

2/3 of US jobs, 3/4 economic output, are within 35 mi of 98 largest central business districts (CBD). Increasingly, they aremoving to a ring 10-35 mi from CBD. (Brookings Inst.)

Geographic Distribution of Job Share 98 Metro Areas, 1998 - 2006

Most Commutes Are Suburb to SuburbMost Commutes Are Suburb to Suburb

Metropolitan Flow Map (Millions of Commuters)

Source Brookings Inst.

Today’s Commuting Distances

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Per

cen

t o

f C

om

mu

ters

0-5 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 >44

Miles

One-way Commuting Distance

Within Range of EV

68%

Beyond Range of EV32%

Implication: A substantial segment of Implication: A substantial segment of commuters is unavailable to an EV alternativecommuters is unavailable to an EV alternative

Trade19%

Financial, Insurance, Real

Estate5%

Services41%

Government11%

Other24%

148% Increase148% Increaseover 1994 Levelsover 1994 Levels

Implication: Increasing Implication: Increasing flexibility/mobility will be flexibility/mobility will be needed at workplaceneeded at workplace

By 2020By 2020Economic ForecastEconomic Forecast

(% of Total Jobs)(% of Total Jobs)

At least 5 Days/Week forBusiness

Less than 5 Days/Week forBusiness

At least 5 Days/Week forPersonal Needs

Less than 5 Days/Week forPersonal Needs

Mixture of Personal & Business

Don't Needa Vehicle at Work

64% 36%

Need a Vehicleat Work

A Need for Mobility at Work

TodayToday

Implication: Growing dissatisfaction Implication: Growing dissatisfaction with commuting will not lead with commuting will not lead increased use of conventional increased use of conventional alternativesalternatives

Congestion Continues to Grow

Sources of CongestionSources of Congestion

Urban Mass Transport Solutions Require Last Mile ConsiderationsUrban Mass Transport Solutions Require Last Mile Considerations

Personal Rapid TransitLight Rail

Future Trends will Focus on Distributed Mass TransitFuture Trends will Focus on Distributed Mass Transit

• Congestion and air pollution is increasing • Traditional solutions (i.e. more highways) are not

sufficient• Current mass transit doesn’t work in many American

cities• Traditional rail service doesn’t match with

suburban commuting patterns• Bus service inconvenient and has social stigma

attached to it• New Paradigm needed: Distributed Mass

Transportation

• Congestion and air pollution is increasing • Traditional solutions (i.e. more highways) are not

sufficient• Current mass transit doesn’t work in many American

cities• Traditional rail service doesn’t match with

suburban commuting patterns• Bus service inconvenient and has social stigma

attached to it• New Paradigm needed: Distributed Mass

Transportation

Improving Transportation SystemsImproving Transportation Systems

Distributed Mass Transit

“Station” Cars“Station” Cars

• Typically, 2-seat battery electric vehicle

• Extension of mass transit• Provides instant, distributed

mobility• Ideal for commuting and most

local trips

• Each station car is used multiple times per day by different subscribers

• Typically, 2-seat battery electric vehicle

• Extension of mass transit• Provides instant, distributed

mobility• Ideal for commuting and most

local trips

• Each station car is used multiple times per day by different subscribers

Station cars Station cars alonealone are not sufficient: integration into a highare not sufficient: integration into a high--tech transportation tech transportation ““systemsystem”” is criticalis critical

Card SystemMembership card for vehicle use

Reservation Management System

Reservations from home and office PCs

Depot Management SystemConstant status checks on each vehicle’s battery charge

Real-time Information SystemUse of traffic information services

Location Management System

Managing location information on vehicle in use

Charge Billing SystemMember billing

Station Car Systems: Enabling Technologies

Station Car Flexibility Addresses Transit Rider Concerns

• User Advantages• Flexibility • Real alternative• “Free time”• No extra car

• Community Advantages

• Air Pollution

• Traffic Congestion

• User Advantages• Flexibility • Real alternative• “Free time”• No extra car

• Community Advantages

• Air Pollution

• Traffic Congestion

Potential Station Car MarketsPotential Station Car Markets

BostonBoston

New YorkNew York

BaltimoreBaltimore PhiladelphiaPhiladelphia

WashingtonWashingtonCincinnatiCincinnati

ChicagoChicago

ClevelandCleveland

AtlantaAtlanta

MiamiMiami

DallasDallas

DenverDenverSalt LakeSalt LakeCityCity

PortlandPortland

SeattleSeattle

SacramentoSacramento

San JoseSan Jose

San FranciscoSan Francisco

Los AngelesLos Angeles

San DiegoSan Diego

NE CORRIDORNE CORRIDOR

San DiegoSan Diego--Los Angeles RAILLos Angeles RAIL

FloridaFloridaRAILRAIL

20 Rail Corridor Systems

New Urban Mobility – EV ConceptNew Urban Mobility – EV Concept

Range: 50 milesCharge Time:~ 2.5hr/7.5hr (220V/110V)

2012

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Fox Business 2008 (70 Campuses); Innovative Mobility Research 2007 (current members), CNW Research 2008 (8 million forecast)

Members (000s)

200k+ 200k+ CurrentCurrent

MembersMembers

U.S. Car Sharing Growth ForecastU.S. Car Sharing Growth Forecast

8 mm 8 mm PotentialPotential

2007 ~2020

Currently at 70+ U.S. college campusesCurrently at 70+ U.S. college campuses

Car Sharing is GrowingCar Sharing is Growing

Technology Enables New PossibilitiesTechnology Enables New Possibilities

Wireless Technology Promotes Wireless Technology Promotes Modal DiversityModal Diversity

ConvergenceConvergence of:of:•• Wireless ComputingWireless Computing•• Consumer ElectronicsConsumer Electronics•• TransportationTransportation••TelematicsTelematics•• Home Energy ManagementHome Energy Management•• EcoEco--impact Metricsimpact Metrics

Recommend Recommend optimal modeoptimal mode to minimize price minimize price &

travel timetravel time

Eco Technology Conserves Eco Technology Conserves Energy, Reduces COEnergy, Reduces CO22

Locate

Charge Station

Locate Mass Transit

Zipcar Available? Smarter

Charging Stations

Vehicle to

Grid

Smart Grid

PEV ENABLERSPEV ENABLERS

MonitorMonitor

Charge StatusCharge Status

Transition in Personal MobilityTransition in Personal Mobility

Mobility based on Personal Automobile

Mobility based on Multiple Modes

• Car Sharing

• Personal Rapid Transit

• Mass Rapid Transit

• Station Cars

Transition will require:

1. Real-time Communication from Vehiclea) to customer (web portal, Smart Phone)b) to utilitiesc) to home energy management system

2. Shift to other modes of personal transportation

3. Partnerships

Now Future

AgendaAgenda

Future Energy

Future Vehicles

Future Society

Preliminary View of World Oil SupplyPreliminary View of World Oil Supply

Non-Opec crude oil

Opec crude oil

NGLs

Canadian tar sands

Biofuels

Spare capacity

Source Peter Wells

Reduction of Spare Capacity Opens the Door for Price Spikes

Reduction of Spare Capacity Opens the Door for Price Spikes

Supply

Price induced “new” supply or accelerated supply

Demand

Price spikes

Price

Supply

Price induced “new” supply or accelerated supply

Demand

Price spikes

Price

Source Peter Wells

AgendaAgenda

Future Energy

Future Vehicles

Future Society

There is no Single Solution Plug in Hybrids For Medium Distance Commuting

Operation SpecificationsOperation Specifications

Electric Vehicle Charger Assembly

Engine

Electric Motor Electric Vehicle Charger Cable Assembly

HV Battery

AC 110 V to 220 V

Household Outlet

Max. OutputMax. OutputEngineEngine 98 HP (73 kW)98 HP (73 kW)

MG2MG2 80 HP (60 kW)80 HP (60 kW)

In EV Driving Mode

Max. Speed Approx. 62 mph (100 km/h)Approx. 62 mph (100 km/h)

Range Approx. 13 miles (21 km )Approx. 13 miles (21 km )

Power SourcePower Source Household Electrical OutletsHousehold Electrical Outlets

Charging TimeCharging Time Approximately 3 hrs (110 V)Approximately 3 hrs (110 V)

HV Battery CoolingHV Battery Cooling

Additional fans

New ductwork

42 Temperature Sensors

Additional fansAdditional fans

New ductworkNew ductwork

42 Temperature Sensors42 Temperature Sensors

Intake Air Ducts

HV Battery Cooling Blowers

HV Battery Temperature Sensors (for HV Battery Pack)

HV Battery Temperature Sensors (for Intake Air Duct)

Sub 2 Main Sub1DC/DC

Converter Cooling Blower

Challenges: “What the Market will Bear”Challenges: “What the Market will Bear”

%

%

%

%

%

%

Prius

PriusPHV

Mass Market

Source: PIN

2008 Midsize Car Prices

0 --2500

5000 --7500

10,000 --12,500

15,000 --17,500

20,000 --22,500

25,000 --27,500

30,000 --32,500

35,000 --37,500

40,000 --42,500

45,000 --47,500

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

Options for reducing PEVcost:

• Reduce battery cost per capacity• Reduce All Electric Range• Expand the Usable SOC

Current/Developing Cost => even 10 mile AER is Too expensive- 70% of total cost is from the battery cells - Cost must be reduced – not just cells, but the entire PEV system - Must consider the most balanced all electric range

Cost of PEV System

Cell Cost for 10 mile AER

Battery Package w/o Cells

Plug-in additional（Charger, Inlet, Cable）

Battery Energy on board

~50% useable energyin

actual operation

Challenges: Battery CostsChallenges: Battery Costs

0 60 12020 100

50

100

40 80 140

Source: 1990 Nationwide personal transportation survey

(%)Cumulative percentage ofpersonal automobile trips

Cumulative percentage oftravel distance energy

Approx. 20%

Average Daily Travel Distance per Vehicle (miles)

U.S. Driving Patterns

PHV Role: EV Mode For Short Distance HV Mode for Longer TripsPHV Role: EV Mode For Short Distance HV Mode for Longer Trips

Approx. 35%

80% Trips

Ubiquitous Charging Increases Electric VMTUbiquitous Charging Increases Electric VMT

Challenges: Key Infrastructure Issues RemainChallenges: Key Infrastructure Issues Remain

Vehicle to Grid Communications

Electric Utilities have excess electricity generation capacity during off-peak hours – typically at night

Even during off-peak times, however, there is insufficient electricity distributioncapacity for many PEVs to charge at the same time

Communication between vehicle and “grid” is necessary to avoid negative impacts to distribution system (such as local outages)

Level 2 Charging Equipment

The majority of customers, particularly larger-capacity BEVs (50+ miles), will need/want L2 (220V) charging at home and business

The installation of L2 charging equipment is extremely challenging: high cost, lengthy time period, complex interactions among City, Utilities, Contractor, Customer, OEM and Dealer

Resolving L2 installation issues will be critical for EV market adoption

Last Mile Grid System not Developed

Old Transformers Cannot Accommodate Multiple EVs Charging in OneNeighborhood

Night Time Charging Limits Charging Hours

Public Charging Not Assured

According to DOE Targets Fuel Cells Provide Most Efficient Packaging Over 100 Miles

According to DOE Targets Fuel Cells Provide Most Efficient Packaging Over 100 Miles

Source: DOE

DurabilityDurability

Cruising Cruising RangeRange

Compactness & Compactness & High Power High Power

DensityDensity

High & Low High & Low Temperature Temperature PerformancePerformance

CostCost

Fuel Cell Vehicles for Longer TripsAnd Challenges for FC Vehicles

Fuel Cell Vehicles for Longer TripsFuel Cell Vehicles for Longer TripsAnd Challenges for FC VehiclesAnd Challenges for FC Vehicles

Over Time The Costs of Most Technologies Merge

Over Time The Costs of Most Technologies Merge

Source: DOE

20%

40%

5%10%

20%

30%25%

50% 50%

30%

20%

95%90%

72%

35%

20%

10%

35%

10%2%

1%

10%5%3%

15%

97%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040-2050

P HEV BEV/ FCV Conv HEV Conv Ga s

Strong Regulatory Push: Reduce CO2Strong Regulatory Push: Reduce CO2

CARB expects BEV/FCV sales volume to surpass conventional gas by 2035 and reach 30% of mix by 2040

However, the above vision does not achieve the 80% reduction in GHG emissions from 1990 levels by 2050; ZEVs will need to reach 100% of vehicle sales by 2040, to meet the 80% goal

CARB 2050 Vision

Sources: California Air Resources Board; “[ZEV] White Paper”

CARB Assumptions: Retail Price Increase Versus 2035 Hybrid

2035 Plug-in Hybrid (30 mile AER) $3,400

2035 Battery Electric (100 mile range) $5,500

2035 Fuel Cell $2,800

EV Costs vs CO2 ReductionEV Costs vs CO2 Reduction

Comparison of Vehicle Powertrain TechnologiesComparison of Vehicle Comparison of Vehicle PowertrainPowertrain TechnologiesTechnologies

Lifetime energy use breakdown

FC HEV PHEV-20 EV-40 Gas

Material production 17% 17% 20% 25% 11%

Vehicle assembly 3% 3% 4% 5% 2%

Fuel production / transport 10% 10% 9% 5% 12%

Vehicle operation 63% 63% 59% 54% 71%

Vehicle maintenance 3% 3% 3% 4% 2%

Vehicle disposal 4% 4% 5% 7% 3%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Electricity HydrogenGasoline, Diesel, Biofuel, etc

Public transportPublic transportPrivate usePrivate use

ii--seriesseries

BicycleBicycleElectric welfare vehicle

Med/Large vehiclesMed/Large vehicles

ScooterScooter

Light vehicleLight vehicle

MicrobusMicrobus

City busCity bus

Delivery truckDelivery truck

Delivery Delivery vehicle vehicle

WingletWingletPMRPMR

HighHigh--Speed,Speed,LongLong--Distance DrivingDistance Driving

LowerLower--Speed,Speed,ShortShort--Distance DrivingDistance Driving

Highway drivingHighway drivingbetween citiesbetween cities

LowLow--Speed,Speed,InterInter--City DrivingCity Driving

MedMed--toto--High Speed,High Speed,MedMed--Distance DrivingDistance Driving

Large truckLarge truckVehicle SizeVehicle Size

FCV SectorFCV FCV

SectorSector

EV sector

EV EV sectorsector

Driving distance

ICE HV & PHV SectorICE HV &

PHV Sector

EV commuterEV commuter

MobilityMobility--basedbased VehicleVehicle--basedbased

PHEVPHEV

HVHV

Roles of EV/PHEV/FCVRoles of EV/PHEV/FCV

Thank you for your kind attentionThank you for your kind attention

Apply existing technologies in new waysApply existing technologies in new ways

Most of the technologies mentioned already exist, just not yet iMost of the technologies mentioned already exist, just not yet in the mobility n the mobility spacespace

For now smaller battery approaches are more cost effectiveFor now smaller battery approaches are more cost effective

Implies multiple charge periods throughout the dayImplies multiple charge periods throughout the day

Fuel Cells are rapidly maturingFuel Cells are rapidly maturing

Multiple solutions for rapidly changing circumstancesMultiple solutions for rapidly changing circumstances

PEVs and PEVs and FCsFCs both face significant infrastructure hurdles both face significant infrastructure hurdles

At the end of the day, customer is kingAt the end of the day, customer is king

All solutions must solve customers problems without creating newAll solutions must solve customers problems without creating new onesones

Charging solutions to manage the grid may be at odds with customCharging solutions to manage the grid may be at odds with customer er expectations.expectations.

SummarySummary