Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Energy Development in China - From a View Point of Sustainable Development
Yang Hongwei, Zhou DadiEnergy Research Institute, P. R. China
SBSTA in-session workshop on climate mitigationHotel Maritim, Bonn, Germany
19 June 2004
World Energy Trend
1971 2000 2010 2020 2030
Coal 1449 2355 2702 3154 3606
Oil 2450 3604 4272 5020 5769
Natural gas 895 2085 2794 3498 4203
Nuclear power 29 674 753 728 703
Hydropower 104 228 274 320 366
Other renewables 73 233 336 477 618
Total 5000 9179 11131 13198 15265
IEA, 2003. (Mtoe)
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Coal 2228 3003-4235 3836-5504 4666-7186 4738-8227 4872-9457
Oil 3854 4214-5280 4223-6922 4050-9201 3625-11273 3273-13903
Natural gas 2473 2928-3481 3653-4922 4471-6813 5402-9486 6619-13369
Nuclear power 230 268-371 327-726 359-1275 547-1933 911-2930
Bio-energy 1139 897 900-1470 1280-2080 1890-3070 2870-4600
Other renewables 271 300-360 370-550 530-960 760-1960 1140-3990
Total 1019
312100-13400
14100-17000 16500-21400
18900-26400 21300-31200
IPCC scenarios (Mtoe)
世界能源需求量
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
年份
百万
吨标
油
IEA-WEO2002情景SRES A1B情景
SRES A2情景
SRES B1情景
SRES B2情景
Stable increase in world energy demand and consumption Fossil fuel as dominant energy resource in the following decades Impacts of technology development on future energy utilization Role of environment in energy development is becoming more
important Environmental issue has played an important role in the energy
development of many countries, as one of the most important reasons why many countries selected oil and natural gas as major energy sources
Climate change will exert important influence on long term energy development in many countries
Different situation for energy development
Oil & natural gas dominant period? Optimization of final consumption has
completed? Local environmental protection: strict standard,
higher environmental cost? Constraints for nuclear power development?
China is a developing country
Per capita GDP is only about 1,000 US dollars Per capita commercial energy consumption is
only 1 tce More than 60% people live in the rural area,
living on the agriculture Need another 50 years to become a middle level
developed country
Per capita GDP in 1999 in some countries （ US$）42318
31707 3084528959
26071
12068
5462
769
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
Japan Germany America France Singapore Korea The average China
(1995 constant price).
The urbanization course in China
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
The urbanization level of othercountries in 1995
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Korea Amer i ca J apan France Germany
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
rural area in China
urban area in China
Japan(1993)
America(1995)
North Europe
England(1992)
Canada
Pre capita living areas (m2)
0102030
4050607080
car
stoc
k fo
r100
pers
ons
Per capita car ownership
Per capita steel production (kg/person)
0 200 400 600 800 1000
Chi na 2001（ ）
US 1995（ ）
J apan 2000（ ）
France 1995（ ）
Canada 1994（ ）
Worl d Average
Social economic development, the highest priority
Economic development is and will be the dominant social target;
To be a middle level developed country by the middle of this century;
High economic growth rate is expected, needed, and possible for longer period
Long process for industrialization
Industrialization is still the main course of economic and social development for decades
Manufacture industry will keep increase Urbanization will be speed up, with more than 1%
population moving into cities each year Need more job for young people and farmers, 10
million new positions needed annually Infrastructure construction is far from completed
Energy consumption and GHG emission will increase for many years
TPE consumption in China will be doubled or increase even more in the next two decades
Per capita energy consumption will be close to the world average by around 2020
Per capita GHG emission still much lower than that from developed countries
Energy consumption in China remains at very low level compared to many other countries
Trend of China’s energy development is within the very normal range, compared to the development history of other countries
Per capita GDP (1000 US$)
Per
cap
ita e
mis
sion
s (t
-C
)
Per capita GDP (1000 US$)
Em
issi
on in
tens
ity (
t-C
/100
0 U
S$)
Continuous efforts on sustainable development
Efforts include activities in many fields Outstanding achievement in energy efficiency Efforts on developing energy alternatives Efforts on forestry protection and reforestation Enhance local environment protection Land management to promote sinks
Energy efficiency improvement
Promulgated Energy Conservation Law Developed energy conservation plans for each of the 5
years’ development plans Issued associated energy conservation policy and
regulations Established comprehensive energy conservation
management and service system Issued technical guidance for energy conservation Developed and enforced series of energy conservation
standards Initiated national energy conservation programs
Achievement in energy efficiency
Average GDP annual growth rate 9.7% from 1980 to 2000, energy consumption increased 3.9% annually
Kept the energy consumption elasticity coefficient around 0.5 from 1980 to 2000,
Energy intensity decreased more than 5% annually in the same period, (1.1% in average for the world)
More than billion tons of fossil fuel saved
Action in renewables
By the end of 2000 ， small and mini hydro up to 23.799 GW, generating power 77.2 TWh
Widely use of solar heaters all over the country Development of PV, especially for power supply
in remote areas
Future development The elasticity of industrial energy consumption can be obviously less
than that of other sectors, especially in the energy-intensive industries
Substantial progress could be made in optimizing energy mix through speeding-up the development of natural gas, hydropower, nuclear power and full utilization of the international oil & gas resources
Accelerating the optimization of energy mix will promote energy efficiency improvement, reduce energy demand and improve energy supply security
Environmental issue will play a more and more important role in China’s future energy development
The growth rate of GHG emission can be mitigated by strengthening the enforcement of sustainable energy strategy
