ORI GIN AL PA PER

Energy consumption patterns in the processof China’s urbanization

Wenji Zhou • Bing Zhu • Dingjiang Chen •

Charla Griffy-Brown • Yaoyao Ma • Weiyang Fei

Published online: 30 March 2011

� Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2011

Abstract Urbanization has transformed daily lives and industrial production in

China. We investigate the effects of this process on Chinese energy consumption

patterns. Three energy-consuming sectors intricately associated with urbanization

are identified and analyzed: residential households, transportation, and the building

materials industry. Urbanization has profoundly affected each; moreover, the latter

two are high energy consumption and potentially high carbon producing. We esti-

mate energy consumption attributable to each sector to quantitatively evaluate their

impacts on societal transition. Transportation and the production of building

materials are identified as the most significant linkages from urbanization to energy

consumption. Strikingly, despite the large increase in the proportion of the popu-

lation that is urban, the share of urban energy consumption, as estimated here, in

total energy consumption has remained stable. This suggests that economic growth,

in the form of the production of goods for export and domestic consumption, is the

most important driver of energy demand in China.

Keywords Urbanization � Energy consumption � Circular economy �Low carbon economy � China

W. Zhou � B. Zhu (&) � D. Chen � Y. Ma � W. Fei

Department of Chemical Engineering, Tsinghua University,

100084 Beijing, People’s Republic of China

e-mail: bingzhu@tsinghua.edu.cn; zhu@iiasa.ac.at

W. Zhou

e-mail: wenji.zhou@gmail.com

B. Zhu

Energy Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),

Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria

C. Griffy-Brown

Graziadio School of Business, Pepperdine University, Los Angeles, CA 90045, USA

123

Popul Environ (2012) 33:202–220

DOI 10.1007/s11111-011-0133-5

Introduction

Urbanization is a feature and consequence of China’s economic development

process. Through this process, and as a result of associated changes in lifestyle and

improvements in the mode of production, energy consumption patterns have been

profoundly transformed.

Three types of energy usage dominate large-scale concentrations of population in

urban areas: energy conversion, indirect energy consumption in goods production

and transportation activities, and direct energy consumption in final uses (Parikh and

Shukla 1995). A number of local environmental problems have emerged as a

consequence of this urbanization-associated energy usage. According to a study by

He et al. (2003), energy consumption—in particular coal consumption—is the main

source of anthropogenic air pollution emissions in Chinese cities. Greenhouse gas

emissions, which are primarily linked to energy consumption, are also associated

with urbanization, albeit indirectly. For instance, cement production for large-scale

urban construction such as high-rise buildings and infrastructure increases

greenhouse gas emissions. The quantitative assessment of the effect of urbanization

on energy consumption patterns is thus a particularly interesting question related to

sustainable development.

Research on this topic has been carried out from various perspectives, but no

study has identified patterns of urbanization-related energy consumption across

different regions in China. Jones (1991, 2004) identified mechanisms through which

the effects of urbanization on energy consumption can be measured. He argues that

the urbanization process has both a direct and indirect influence on energy

consumption. For instance, urbanization generates economies of scale in production,

but also leads to a requirement for more transportation as a result of urban

population concentration, and passenger transport in cities is heavily weighted

toward fuel-using modes, particularly as personal incomes increase. To quantita-

tively assess the overall impact of the urbanization process, Parikh and Shukla

(1995) developed a fixed effects model of the determinants of total energy usage

based on an analysis of the nature of the relationship between increased resource use

and urbanization, as well as the impact of the development transition on levels of

resource consumption. Other researchers have focused on urban energy metabolism

by analyzing a specific city system from an energy point of view. Odum and

Peterson (1972) linked the complexity of cities to ecological principles and energy

flows. Population-level energy requirements and the energy characteristics of cities

based on fossil fuels were also examined in Odum and Odum (1981). Huang et al.

(2001) and Huang and Chen (2005) applied systems ecology concepts and principles

via theories of energy to link the driving forces of urban systems to their structure,

economy, and organization. All of these researchers examined the inherent

relationship between energy consumption and urbanization, using developing

countries as case studies. However, little attention has been paid to China’s

urbanization process and the patterns of energy consumption in this context.

The impact of the urbanization process on energy consumption patterns in China

has specific characteristics. Shen et al. (2005) explored relationships between

urbanization trends in China and the supply and demand of major energy and mineral

Popul Environ (2012) 33:202–220 203

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resources, as well as between urbanization and GDP, yet did not provide analysis of

the correlation between urbanization and the pattern of energy consumption. Liu

(2009) provided empirical evidence for the link between urbanization and energy

consumption. Liu argues that the rapid aggregation of urban population inevitably

leads to a corresponding rise in energy consumption, for instance, through the

development of city transportation and modern communication systems. However,

Liu also found that the urbanization process accounted for a much smaller share of

China’s energy demand in comparison with economic growth. Moreover, this share

was also found to be much smaller in recent years than in the past.

Much research has also focused on urban environmental problems caused by

energy consumption resulting from urbanization in China. For example, a range of

typical urban pollutants (NOX, CO, CO2, SO2, dust, etc.) were classified and their

respective emission sources identified for Beijing (He et al. 2003; Zhu et al. 2005).

Despite the availability of research analyzing macroscopic factors that influence

energy consumption in the urbanization process (such as population, gross domestic

product (GDP), and level of urbanization), in-depth investigations based on sectoral-

level data have not been carried out; that is, there is a lack of research that focuses on

the administrative measures that could be implemented to decouple the urbanization

process from increasing energy consumption. Previous categorizations of energy

consumption in urbanization usually defined two types: residential energy use and

production energy use. In contrast, we select the three most relevant sectors—

residential households, transportation, and the building materials industry—to

conduct exploratory analyses of how urbanization influences energy consumption

patterns related to these three sectors in China. Further, we identify appropriate

policy tools to address specific challenges related to energy and urbanization.

This article is divided into five sections. Following the introduction, we briefly

address the basic characteristics of urbanization and energy consumption in China

and identify the key features to be examined. The third section analyzes the

dynamics of the relationship between urbanization and energy use in China through

a quantitative assessment. Section four introduces two concepts of critical

importance to energy policy planning: the ‘‘circular economy’’ and the ‘‘low

carbon economy.’’ We discuss their impacts on energy consumption patterns related

to urbanization processes in China, a critical issue, given the attention paid to these

concepts by the Chinese government in national development planning. In the

concluding section, these models are viewed in the context of the patterns, and key

features identified in this study to provide some important recommendations for

policy makers.

Characteristics of urbanization and energy consumption in China

The urbanization process in China has been long and complex because China was a

long predominantly rural society. Though cities emerged early on, the speed of

urbanization was very slow prior to the 1970s. With the initiation of the ‘‘Reform

and Opening-Up’’ policy in 1978, China entered a period of high-speed urbaniza-

tion. The agricultural reform, which is considered the beginning of the profound

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transformation of Chinese society as a whole, significantly advanced rural economic

development, thus indirectly enhancing the development of a non-agricultural

economy and urbanization. Chinese economic reforms have steadily progressed

since the mid-1980s and have fostered further urbanization. The movement of

surplus agricultural workers to cities greatly accelerated the urbanization process.

According to official statistics (State Statistical Bureau, China Statistical Yearbook

2009), from 1978 to 2008 the total urban population jumped from 170 million to

607 million, the percentage of the urban population rose from 17.9 to 45.7%, and the

share of the urban workforce (percentage of urban workers relative to the total

number of workers) climbed from 23.7 to 39.0%, as shown in Table 1.

Even though both the rate and scale of China’s urbanization are unprecedented,

the role of industrialization and economic growth as drivers in this process remains

controversial. As Table 1 shows, there is no significant correlation between rising

urbanization and industrial development. That is, the level of urbanization in China

is lagging behind the industrialization process and overall economic growth. These

features distinguish China from other developing countries. Some scholars argue

that this results from the consistent underestimation of China’s level of urbanization

due to the dual structure of the urban and rural household registration system, which

has resulted in a large number of rural laborers migrating to cities without, however,

being registered as urban residents (Zhou et al. 2008). Other experts assert that

China’s level of industrialization has been overestimated because the index to

measure the development of industrialization, namely the percentage of secondary

industry in total GDP, did not reflect the actual situation (Guo 2002; Lu et al. 2005).

Urbanization in China is heterogeneous. The urban population, the size of urban

cities, and other facets of China’s urbanization vary significantly among regions. To

illustrate this disparity, we selected three provinces, Guangdong, Hubei, and Gansu,

respectively, from eastern, central, and western China and compared their levels of

urbanization (see Table 2).

The results demonstrate that the level of urbanization and the share of urban

workforce differ considerably between the eastern and western regions. This is

especially evident in eastern coastal areas such as Guangdong province, where

foreign trade and foreign investment, profiting from special economic development

policies, dramatically spurred the development of cities. In contrast, the western

regions of China are less developed, and the national strategy for the development

of western provinces still needs time to be effective.

Table 1 Urbanization and industrialization in China from 1978 to 2008

Year 1978 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008

Urbanization level (%) 17.9 19.4 23.7 26.4 29.0 36.2 43.0 45.7

Share of urban workforce (%) 23.7 24.8 25.7 26.3 28.0 32.1 36.0 39.0

Industrialization level (%)a 47.9 48.2 42.9 41.3 47.2 45.9 47.5 48.6

Source: State Statistical Bureau, China Statistical Yearbook 2009, online version, http://www.stats.

gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2009/indexeh.htma Industrialization level here is measured by share of secondary industry of total GDP

Popul Environ (2012) 33:202–220 205

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Urbanization affects energy consumption patterns in several ways: (1) adjustment

of the industrial structure affects the production of key products such as cement and

steel; (2) optimization of energy supply changes people’s lifestyles; for example,

natural gas is more likely to be used instead of coal in urban areas—in addition, a

more diversified energy supply will alter industrial production approaches; (3)

technological improvements enable people to use energy-efficient appliances; (4)

more efficient use of resources, primarily in industry, allow by-products or waste

from a given production process to be then used or reused in another process.

Energy consumption patterns in China have substantially changed in terms of

scale and structure, especially since the 1990s. The total final energy consumed in

China increased by 94.6%, from 814.2 million tons of coal equivalent (tce) in 1991

to 1,584.7 million tce in 2005, with an annual growth rate of 5.1%. However, urban

residential energy consumption, which accounted for 6–10% of China’s total energy

consumption, increased by only 19.8% in the same period (see Table 3) because the

energy consumption of energy intensive sectors, such as heavy industries and

transport, grew far more rapidly than household energy consumption.

Another noteworthy phenomenon is that although total energy consumption

increased, the energy consumption structure improved, i.e., the use of cleaner final

energy forms such as electricity increased along with a decline in coal use. This

trend is presented in Figs. 1 and 2. Total electricity use increased by 10.1% annually

during this period, while coal consumption remained constant, leading to substantial

Table 2 Regional disparities in urbanization (2008): the case of three provinces

Guangdong Hubei Gansu

Level of urbanization (%) 63.0 44.0 31.0

Share of urban workforce (%) 39.2 27.5 20.0

Cities with more than 1 million inhabitants 10 6 3

Source: State Statistical Bureau, China Statistical Yearbook 2009, online version, http://www.stats.

gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2009/indexeh.htm

Table 3 Total final energy consumption and urban residential energy consumption in China from 1991

to 2005

Year 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Total final energy consumption (million tce) 814.2 850.9 884.8 936.4 981.4 1,059.3 992.3 952.7

Urban residential energy consumption

(million tce)a80.5 74.3 70.2 67.2 67.4 75.5 64.9 60.8

Year 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Total final energy consumption (million tce) 954.7 971.1 989.7 1,046.3 1,218.3 1,442.3 1,584.7

Urban residential energy consumption (million tce) 63.9 67.0 69.0 74.5 84.6 89.9 96.4

Source: State Statistical Bureau & Energy Bureau, China Energy Statistical Yearbook 1992–2006a Urban household energy use primarily includes heating and cooling, lighting, and cooking. We have

calibrated the data here and found that the energy consumed in transportation was not taken into account

in this item

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alterations in energy consumption mix. This trend toward improvement is even

more striking with reference to residential energy use in urban areas. Electricity use

increased at an annual rate of 12.7%, while coal use declined considerably—by

8.8% annually—reflecting an improvement in urban residents’ day-to-day lives.

Note, however, that the China Energy Statistical Yearbook, which we used for these

Fig. 1 Structural change in final energy consumption in China (1991–2005). Electricity, heat, naturalgas, petroleum, coal, and other forms of energy (including some relatively small-scale energy forms suchas coke and refinery gas) are the six main final energy consumption types according to the China EnergyStatistical Yearbook. Despite the fact that electricity and heat are usually considered secondary energyforms that are transformed from other forms of energy, while natural gas, petroleum, and coal areconsidered primary energy, all of these forms are examined simultaneously and represent finalconsumption in the Yearbook. For example, only coal consumed for non-energy use was taken intoaccount in this calculation to avoid double counting. Source: State Statistical Bureau & Energy Bureau,China Energy Statistical Yearbook 1992–2006

Fig. 2 Structural change of residential energy consumption in urban areas (1991–2005). Source: StateStatistical Bureau & Energy Bureau, China Energy Statistical Yearbook 1992–2006

Popul Environ (2012) 33:202–220 207

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figures, reported the six main final energy consumption forms (i.e., electricity, heat,

natural gas, petroleum, coal, and others) simultaneously—these figures thus

represent only final consumption, even though electricity and heat are often

considered secondary energy forms that are transformed from primary energy. Thus,

to avoid double counting, the coal category in these figures does not include coal

consumed in the production of electricity and heat, although most electricity and

heat in China is still predominantly produced from coal. Further research accounting

for the origin of secondary energy production would be valuable.

Final energy consumption varies between China’s eastern, central, and western

provinces in parallel to regional differences in level of urbanization. Total final

energy consumption in 2006 was 28.6, 75.5, and 128.3 million tce for Gansu, Hubei,

and Guangdong provinces, respectively. Energy use in Guangdong was nearly 4.5

times higher than in Gansu, although the Guangdong population was only 3.6 times

that of Gansu. The three provinces’ energy use structures are compared in Figs. 3

and 4. The share of petroleum and electricity use was higher in Guangdong than in

Fig. 3 Total final energyconsumption structures for threeprovinces in 2006. Source: StateStatistical Bureau & EnergyBureau, China Energy StatisticalYearbook 2007

Fig. 4 Urban residential energyconsumption structures for threeprovinces in 2006. Source: StateStatistical Bureau & EnergyBureau, China Energy StatisticalYearbook 1991–2007

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Hubei and Gansu. However, the difference between Hubei and Gansu was less

obvious, as industrial development is quite limited in these two provinces compared

with Guangdong. Nevertheless, a very clear decline in the share of electricity usage

from east to west is evident in the energy use structure of urban households, with

electricity accounting for 52.5% of total urban household energy consumption in

Guangdong, compared with 36.8% in Hubei and 17.7% in Gansu. In Gansu, 36.8%

of the energy consumption of urban households was attributable to heating because

Gansu is located in northwestern China where buildings are routinely heated by

central heating systems in cold weather. No energy was consumed for heating in

Hubei and Guangdong, where no such central heating systems exist owing to the

provinces’ warmer weather.

Relationship between urbanization and energy consumption in China

Conceptual framework

The relationship between urbanization and energy consumption in China is

considered from three distinct perspectives, namely energy use by residential

households, transportation, and the building materials industry, as illustrated in the

framework diagram in Fig. 5. Urbanization has had a profound impact on residential

and transportation patterns. As a result, all energy consumption activities within

these sectors have changed during the process of urbanization. For example, the

methods used for heating, cooking, lighting, and transportation significantly differ

from traditional methods used in rural areas. At the same time, extensive building in

urban areas, also a very important aspect of urbanization, has resulted in increased

use of energy to produce building materials such as cement, steel, aluminum, and

glass.

Urbanization

Residential households

Transportation

Buildingmaterials (real

estate etc.)

Heating/Lighting/Cooking …

Private car/Public

transportation …

Iron & Steel

Cement

Aluminum

Glass

Other

Energy consumption

Other

NOX

CO

CO2

SO2

Dust

Other

Environment

Fig. 5 Conceptual framework of links between urbanization and energy consumption

Popul Environ (2012) 33:202–220 209

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Our research does not address all impacts of urbanization on energy consumption

patterns. For example, the production of chemical fertilizer will increase due to

changes in the agricultural production process caused by urbanization. This factor

was discussed by Jones (1991, 2004) in a qualitative way. We have not taken

additional factors like this into consideration, as our goal is to quantitatively

measure the impact of urbanization on energy consumption patterns, and the data

required to analyze such factors were unobtainable. Moreover, within the short time

frame of our study, which covers just one or two decades, the relationship between

the change in fertilizer production and urbanization is very subtle, that is, it is

virtually impossible to separate an increase in fertilizer production caused by

urbanization from total fertilizer output.

Residential households

Energy consumed by residential households primarily consists of energy for

heating, lighting, cooking, and working. Transportation is often considered a

subcategory of the residential sector, but in order to highlight the data boundary and

ensure consistency of data sources, transportation is separated from the residential

sector in this study. To measure the changes, the urbanization process has brought

about in the residential sector; data on five representative household appliances were

collected, namely washing machines, refrigerators, color TV sets, air conditioners,

and personal computers (Fig. 6).

The five curves clearly indicate that the number of modern household appliances

per capita increased significantly between 1990 and 2005. Yet the rate of increase

varies for each appliance. A sharp rise is evident in more advanced or relatively high

technology-content products such as personal computers and air conditioners. In

contrast, the number of traditional electronic appliances such as color TVs,

refrigerators, and washing machines remained relatively constant, while their quality,

performance, and functions improved considerably over time (Akinobu et al. 2008).

Widespread use of these appliances inevitably led to a rise in the electricity

consumption of urban households. According to the China Energy Statistical

Fig. 6 Trends in the number of household appliances in urban areas (per 100 inhabitants). Source: StateStatistical Bureau, China Statistical Yearbook 2006, online version, http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2009/indexeh.htm

210 Popul Environ (2012) 33:202–220

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Yearbook (State Statistical Bureau & Energy Bureau 1991, 2006), the annual

electricity consumption per urban household was 407 kilowatt hours (kwh) in 1990, a

figure which climbed to 1,063 kwh within 15 years. That is, electricity consumption

increased nearly three times within one and a half decades. This is, in part, a

reflection of the rising share of electricity in urban residential energy use (see Fig. 2).

Another factor is that many surplus agricultural workers have migrated to big cities.

Even though the average number of persons per household decreased, the total

number of households increased, and along with it, the number of appliances. Rising

numbers of households combined with declining average household size made for a

very rapid increase in the number of appliances per capita. Offsetting these factors,

however, has been the rising energy efficiency of household appliances.

Table 3 and Fig. 7 reveal that total and per capita (respectively) urban residential

energy consumption remained level or dropped during the first half of the study

period and increased in the second half. This result has been reported in other studies

(Chen and Yuan 2008; Liang et al. 2009). Liang et al. (2009) attributed this trend to

the balancing out of two countervailing factors, urbanization and technological

progress: urbanization has increased residential energy use, while technological

progress has decreased it. In the 1990s, according to this view, technological progress

outweighed the influence of urbanization and vice versa during this century.

However, Chen and Yuan (2008) argued that technological progress only affected

the manufacturing sector and had little impact on the residential sector. They

associated this trend with changes in urban wages and consumption behavior. There

is a lack of relevant quantitative analysis to support these assertions, and further

research needs to be conducted to clarify the role of causal factors.

When comparing urban and rural energy use patterns, it is important to understand

how residential energy consumption patterns are affected by the transition from a

rural to an urban economy. Comparative results are presented in Figs. 7 and 8.

Figure 7 illustrates the huge gap between urban and rural residential energy use

that existed in 2005, when urban residential energy consumption per capita totaled

around 257 kilograms of coal equivalent (kgce), while rural residential energy

consumption was 122 kgce per capita. Nevertheless, this gap shrank between 1991

and 2005, as urban residential energy use per capita decreased slightly (from 298 to

257 kgce), while rural residential energy use rose by approximately 47%.

Fig. 7 Urban and rural residential energy consumption (1991–2005), per capita (kgce). Data excludesome hard-to-survey traditional energy consumption forms, for example, the conventional use of firewoodin rural areas. Source: State Statistical Bureau & Energy Bureau, China Energy Statistical Yearbook1992–2006

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The structures also display significant disparities. According to Fig. 8, residential

energy sources are more diverse and cleaner in urban than in rural areas. More

sophisticated energy resources, such as natural gas and coal gas, were available to

urban, but not to rural, households (Cai and Jiang 2008). Note that these figures

include commercially available residential energy sources, while excluding hard-to-

survey traditional energy forms such as the use of firewood in rural areas. Since

traditional biomass use in rural households such as direct combustion of firewood

and straw for cooking and heating is not included, the comparative analysis is only a

rough estimation.

Transportation

China’s transportation sector has experienced rapid growth in recent years. The

number of urban motor vehicles increased 4.2 times from 6.1 million in 1991 to 31.6

million in 2005, and corresponding urban transportation energy use rose from 26.8

million tce to 139.9 million tce, as shown in Table 4. Note that these data cover only

urban road transportation. Transportation energy theoretically equals the sum of all

energy forms consumed by all types of vehicles. Since official statistical data on

energy consumption of other forms of urban transportation is not available, we

instead report the sum of related gasoline and diesel use, which should reflect total

urban energy use.

There are two categories of urban motor vehicles, commercial (profit-making)

and non-commercial (non-profit-making). The former includes public buses and

trams to transport passengers and trucks to transport goods. According to our

calculation (the data were derived from the China Statistical Yearbook and Wu et al.

2008), commercial vehicles accounted for about 23% of the total number of vehicles

in 2005, but 59% of transport energy, implying that they constituted a much higher

energy-intensive mode of transportation than non-commercial vehicles. This

probably reflects both higher individual energy consumption by commercial

vehicles, which are generally much larger than non-commercial vehicles, and the

Fig. 8 Structural comparisonof urban and rural residentialenergy consumption (2006), percapita. Data exclude some hard-to-survey traditional energyconsumption forms, forexample, the conventional use offirewood in rural areas. Source:State Statistical Bureau &Energy Bureau, China EnergyStatistical Yearbook 2007

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predominance of public transport, as opposed to private motorcars, in terms of

distance traveled. Because public transport vehicles typically carry many more

individuals than non-commercial private vehicles, this does not contradict the

general acceptance that public transportation is more energy efficient than private

transportation. However, we collected vehicle fleet and energy consumption data on

China’s commercial vehicles for the years 2000 and 2005 and found that although

the fleet had increased by only 4%, energy use had risen by 72% over the five-year

period, which indicates that the energy performance of these vehicles declined (see

Table 5).

An examination of energy consumed by commercial passenger vehicles in

particular also reveals a decline in efficiency. For gasoline vehicles, the fuel

consumed to transport 100 people per kilometer was 11 l in 2000, an amount that

increased to 13 l within 5 years (see Fig. 9). Chang et al. (2010) attributed this rise to

an upgrade of gasoline vehicles. Before the year 2000, China’s public transportation

vehicles were relatively primitive and hence consumed less energy. These vehicles

were upgraded in subsequent years, for instance, through the addition of extra

features such as air conditioners or mobile digital TV and the widespread

introduction of specially configured vehicles, resulting in more comfort for

Table 4 Growing number of urban motor vehicles and corresponding transportation energy consumption

(1991–2005)

Year 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Number of motor vehicles (million) 26.8 29.8 32.9 34.3 39.8 40.8 52.8 59.7

Transportation energy (million tce) 6.1 6.9 8.2 9.4 10.4 11.0 12.2 13.2

Year 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Number of motor vehicles (million) 70.1 78.0 80.8 87.6 101.6 124.0 139.9

Transportation energy (million tce) 14.5 16.1 18.0 20.5 23.8 26.9 31.6

Only urban road transportation is considered here; railway, water, airline, and rural vehicles have been

excluded. Transportation energy refers to fuels or electricity consumed by all types of vehicles. As no

official statistical data on energy consumption of urban transportation are available, we took the sum of

related gasoline and diesel use to reflect total urban energy. For example, electricity used by subways,

trolley buses, or trams was not taken into account, as it is assumed that the amount consumed is low (see

Wu et al. 2008)

Source: State Statistical Bureau, China Statistical Yearbook 2006, online version, http://www.stats.

gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2006/indexeh.htm, State Statistical Bureau & Energy Bureau, China Energy Statistical

Yearbook 1992–2006

Table 5 Comparison of

population and energy

consumption of profit-making

vehicles between 2000 and 2005

Source: Wu et al. (2008),

Li and Wu (2008)

Year Commercial

vehicle fleet

(million)

Energy consumption

of commercial vehicle

fleet (million tons oil

equivalent)

2000 7.01 33.4

2005 7.33 57.7

Increase (%) 104 172

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passengers but also in higher energy requirements. While all agree that public rather

than private transportation needs to be further developed to mitigate environmental

impacts, the energy efficiency of public transport is itself an important variable.

The building materials industry

The expansion of energy-intensive heavy industry in China, which began in the

1990s, is related to the upsurge in urban infrastructure. Steel, aluminum, concrete,

and other basic building materials were produced and utilized to build new roads,

mass-transit systems, and substantial urban residential and commercial real estate

development projects. We present the development of the construction sector

between 1991 and 2005 as an illustrative example (Fig. 10). The floor space under

construction increased from 410.5 million square meters to 3,527.4 million square

meters, with an annual growth rate of 16.6%. New floor space completed within the

year rose from 202.6 million square meters to 1,594.1 million square meters, with an

annual growth rate of roughly 15.9%.

Fig. 9 Energy efficiencyof commercial passengervehicles (liter/100 people/km).Source: Li and Wu (2008)

Fig. 10 Building construction in China from 1990 to 2005 (million m2). Source: State Statistical Bureau,China Statistical Yearbook 2009, online version, http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2009/indexeh.htm

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The production of cement, steel, aluminum, and glass also increased consider-

ably, as the data in Table 6 demonstrates. The output of these industries expanded,

with annual growth rates ranging from 10.9 to 17.6%. In particular, the production

of aluminum grew at an extremely fast rate, although outputs of the other products,

especially cement, were much higher.

The rapid development of these industries inevitably resulted in an increase in

industrial energy consumption. To measure the impact of urbanization, the products

used for construction must be separated from those products used for other

purposes. Based on data surveys and experts’ estimation (Dr. Shi Lei and Dr. Chen

Weiqiang), we derived the approximate shares of building materials used for

construction in China. For cement, steel, aluminum, and glass, these were 60, 50,

30, and 15%, respectively. The percentages fluctuated from 1 year to the next, but

within relatively narrow ranges, allowing us to arrive at a rough estimation of the

construction sectors’ energy consumption.

The results are presented in Table 7. The cement and steel production industries

accounted for the largest share in total energy consumption owing to their

substantial output. Although the aluminum and glass industries were also quite

energy intensive, their scales of production were much lower. The construction

industry’s impact on energy consumption in the urbanization process can mainly be

attributed to cement and steel production.

Summary of results

In order to address the important issue raised at the beginning of this article, we

analyze energy consumption in three areas crucial for urbanization: residential

households, transportation, and the building materials industry. We calculate each

factor’s share in China’s total final energy consumption, as summarized in

Fig. 11.

Table 6 Output of cement, steel, aluminum, and glass

Year 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Cement (million tons) 252.6 308.2 367.9 421.2 475.6 491.2 511.7 536.0

Steel (million tons) 71.0 80.9 89.6 92.6 95.4 101.2 108.9 115.6

Aluminum (million tons) 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.4

Glass (million tons) 87.1 93.6 110.9 119.3 157.3 160.7 166.3 171.9

Year 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Cement (million tons) 573.0 597.0 661.0 725.0 862.1 966.8 1,068.8

Steel (million tons) 124.3 128.5 151.6 182.4 222.3 282.9 353.2

Aluminum (million tons) 2.8 3.0 3.6 4.5 5.6 6.7 7.8

Glass (million tons) 174.2 183.5 209.6 234.5 277.0 370.3 402.1

Source: State Statistical Bureau, China Statistical Yearbook 2006, online version, http://www.stats.

gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2006/indexeh.htm

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The sum of energy consumption by urban residential households, transportation,

and the building materials industry accounted for approximately 20% of total energy

consumption in China, a share that only increased slightly between 1991 and 2005.

The remaining 80% of total energy consumption was primarily attributed to heavy

industries, such as power generation, chemical and petrochemical industries, and

steel and cement production for other purposes.

The share of urban residential energy consumption relative to total urban energy

consumption continued to decrease. The increasing share of energy of the

transportation and building materials industry indicates that these sectors have

Table 7 Energy consumption for the production of four typical building materials

Year 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Cement (million tce) 26.5 32.4 38.6 44.2 49.9 51.6 53.7 56.3

Steel (million tce) 57.2 63.7 70.5 70.3 72.4 70.5 75.8 58.3

Aluminum (million tce) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4

Glass (million tce) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Total (million tce) 84.4 96.9 110.2 115.8 123.9 123.6 131.3 116.5

Year 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Cement (million tce) 60.2 60.5 65.4 70.5 82.2 90.5 92.3

Steel (million tce) 62.7 59.1 66.4 74.3 85.6 107.6 130.7

Aluminum (million tce) 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.4 3.0 3.5 4.0

Glass (million tce) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.2

Total (million tce) 125.0 121.8 134.4 147.9 171.6 202.7 228.3

Source: authors calculations, using data from (1) State Statistical Bureau, China Statistical Yearbook

2006. Online version, http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj; and (2) Personal communication with Dr. Shi Lei

and Dr. Chen Weiqiang

Fig. 11 Share of urbanization-related energy consumption in national total energy consumption. Notes:a: Residential energy consumption in this article refers to the use of energy for cooking, heating, lighting,etc. in day-to-day life, excluding energy related to transportation. b: Only urban road transportation isincluded in the transportation energy consumption calculation here—railway, water, airline, and ruralvehicles are excluded

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gradually become the driving force behind the rise in energy consumption in

China’s urbanization process.

The trend of urbanization in China is expected to continue, as is total energy

consumption related to urbanization. The large-scale construction of infrastructure

and high-rise buildings will continue for decades. This implies that related materials

production will be affected. Moreover, lifestyle changes will lead to an increase in

the number and use of urban vehicles including both commercial and private motor

vehicles, as well as the amount and use of electric household appliances. As a result,

electricity consumption will increase to achieve a more comfortable living standard.

In contrast, with reference to total final energy consumption, coal seems to be on the

wane. This notwithstanding, it appears that coal will continue to play a key role in

the supply side of energy. Coal-fired plants are expected to continue to dominate

China’s power generation for the foreseeable future.

Urbanization and energy consumption: the circular economy and the lowcarbon economy

Some basic challenges confront China’s continued development. On the one hand,

the rapid development of heavy industries such as power generation and steel and

cement production, largely driven by urbanization processes as described here, has

sharply increased China’s energy consumption and resource utilization. To cope

with ever-increasing pressures from resource shortages and environmental degra-

dation, the Chinese government has begun to focus on the concept of the ‘‘circular

economy.’’ This strategy is intended to integrate the economy with resources and

environmental factors based on the ‘‘resource-product-regenerated resource’’

material metabolism cycle. Ideally, it employs a mechanism of efficient resource

use where waste is fed back into the system, and overall material metabolism is

compatible with the healthy functioning of the ecosystem. Targets of the circular

economy would thus include the reduction in resource consumption and in pollutant

emissions. The Circular Economy Promotion Law was approved by China’s

National People’s Congress on August 29, 2008 and brought into force on January

1, 2009 (The National People’s Congress of the People Republic of China 2008;

Zhao 2011).

On the other hand, ever-greater understanding of the connection between climate

change and human activities has raised pressure on the entire international

community to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). In China, this has led to the

growing adoption in official policy of the ‘‘low carbon economy’’—an economy

with minimal emissions of GHG into the biosphere. Given its high energy

consumption and CO2 emissions, China faces an extreme challenge with respect to

greenhouse gas mitigation. The Chinese government has already assigned the

considerable priority for this issue; for instance, an ‘‘energy saving and reduction of

pollutant’’ policy have been incorporated in the 11th national five-year plan and

more rigorous requirements are expected with future national development

strategies (The Central People’s Government of the People Republic of China

2006).

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Though these two economic models have different targets, it is possible to find

commonalities in their scope and requirements. Hence:

• Cascading use of energy, a key feature of the circular economy, would

substantially reduce systemic energy input and consequently reduce CO2

emissions;

• Similarly, the coupling of industries according to the precepts of industrial

ecology would offer opportunities for reusing greenhouse gases; for instance,

CO2 can be used to produce industrial chemicals;

• The promotion of carbon substitutes would reduce production of carbon

intensive products, reducing GHG emissions in an indirect way.

The complementary functioning of these two economic models (Table 8) may

facilitate the introduction of measures that reduce reliance on energy consumption

in the process of urbanization. Essentially, the implementation of a circular

economy could be viewed as a specific and indispensable approach to meet the

requirements of a low carbon society. The potential of this approach for GHG

mitigation remains a very interesting topic for further study. Regardless, there is no

question that these models will deeply influence the three aspects of urbanization

(residential characteristics, transportation, and construction) and resultant energy

consumption patterns discussed above.

Table 8 Comparison of the circular economy with the low carbon economy

Measure Circular economy Low carbon economy Impact on energy

consumed in the

process of

urbanization

Optimized

adjustment of

industrial

structure

Establish an industrial

ecological system through

adjustment of industrial

structure, to reduce resource

use in the production of goods

(???)

Save energy use and CO2

emissions through scaling-up

effects from industrial

structural adjustment (???)

Industries

Optimization of

energy supply

structure

Make energy use cleaner,

reduce pollutant emissions

(??)

Enlarge the share of renewable

energy and low carbon energy

such as natural gas and

nuclear (???)

Residential,

Industries

Technological

improvement

Implementation of highly

resource-efficient and

environmentally sound

technologies (???)

Implementation of highly

energy-efficient and low-

carbon technologies (???)

Residential,

Transport,

Industries

Comprehensive

utilization of

resources

Establish linkages among all

sectors to reuse various

resources (???)

Reuse purified CO2 or other

high-carbon-content products

(?)

Industries

Economic

management

and

regulations

Supply subsidies for advanced

technology implementation;

impose penalties on pollutant

emissions (???)

Implement, e.g., fuel taxes,

carbon funds, carbon trading

markets (???)

Transport,

industries

‘‘?’’ represents priority level with respect to either economic model

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Conclusions and policy implications

This article investigates how urbanization has affected energy-consumption patterns

in China. Our basic finding is that, while urban residential energy consumption has

increased in absolute terms (declining in the 1990s and rising in the 2000s), the

main sources of growth in urban energy consumption have been urban transport and

energy consumption associated with the materials required for construction.

In the transportation sector, the focus should be on developing effective, energy-

efficient public transportation systems. For example, there is tremendous energy

saving potential in road to urban rail substitution (Chang et al. 2010). There is still

considerable room for energy conservation in road transport, which could be

achieved by promoting the purchase of energy-efficient vehicles, improving road

conditions, strengthening transportation systems management, etc. With regard to

construction, energy saving is linked to an improvement in individual industrial

sectors, namely higher quality building materials as well as technological advances

in production processes, which would have a positive influence on the energy

performance of buildings.

One of the most striking findings of this paper is that, although total urban energy

consumption has increased, the total share of Chinese energy consumption

associated with urbanization, as estimated according to our approach, has changed

little since the early 1990s. This is despite a sharp increase in the proportion of the

population urban and can only suggest that there have been significant efficiency

gains, in particular, in the residential sector. This also underscores the fact that the

main factor driving China’s energy consumption is economic growth fueled by

buoyant exports and strong domestic demand. We note that other approaches that

put more emphasis on, for example, the expansion of heavy industrial production in

connection with urbanization processes, might lead to different results.

Acknowledgments The authors greatly appreciate the comments from anonymous reviewers and the

guest editor, who provided valuable insights and helpful information for this study. We are also grateful

to the Ministry of Science and Technology of China for its financial support (No. 2009BAC64B01).

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