Energy Conservation

November 27, 2005

Andy Yu

Outline• The wealth of Nations

– GDP, Population and energy consumption– GE ratio, A measure of efficient energy usage

• Of CO2 emission, global warming and hurricanes– Causal effect not clear cut, but …– Environment impact from CO2

• Efficient use of energy– A Coherent Energy Policy from the government?– Transportation, housing, cooking, cleaning, etc.

GDP, Population and Energy Consumption

Country

GDP(US$) population

Use* TotalUse

U.S. 11,667,515M

293.5M 8,158.8 2,394,607.8

Japan 4,623,398 127.8 4,111.5 525,449.7

Germany 2,714,428 82.6 4,178.9 345,177.1

U.K. 2,140,898 59.4 3,925.5 233,174.7

France 2,002,852 60.0 4,373.6 262,416.0

Italy 1,672,302 57.6 2,976.8 171,463.7

China 1,649,329 1,296.5 903.2 1,170,998.8

Canada 979,464 31.9 8,154.3 260,122.2

India 691,876 1,079.7 508.8 549,351.4The driver of economy is energy

*kg of oil equivalent per capita

GE Ratio• “GE” Ratio = GDP/EnergyConsumed

– A rough measure of energy usage efficiency [larger is better]

Country “GE” RatioUS 5

Japan 9

Germany 5

France 5

United Kingdom 7

China 1

India 1

Global Warming

• The higher frequency and intensity of hurricanes may be due to the increase in ocean temperatures caused by global warming.

CO2 Emissions: US is the worst offender

Country Per Capita1

Total2 LifeExpectancy

US 19.8 5,811.3 77.4

Japan 9.3 1,188.5 81.7

Germany 9.6 793.0 78.3

UK 9.6 570.2 77.6

France 6.2 372.0 79.3

Italy 7.4 426.2 79.8

China 2.2 2,860.0 70.8

Canada 14.2 453.0 79.3

India 1.1 1,210.0 63.4 1. Metric Tons, 2000 data 2. Mega-Tons, population data from 2004

Carbon Emission

CO2 emission per capita

Climate Change

• The Kyoto Protocol– An international treaty on climate change– As of September 2005, 156 countries have ratified the

agreement. Notable exceptions include the United States and Australia.

– The Bush administration does not intend to submit the treaty for ratification.

"The Kyoto Protocol is a legal agreement under which industrialized countries will reduce their collective emissions of greenhouse gases by 5.2% compared to the year 1990 (but note that, compared to the emissions levels that would be expected by 2010 without the Protocol, this target represents a 29% cut). The goal is to lower overall emissions from six greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, HFCs, and PFCs - calculated as an average over the five-year period of 2008-12. National targets range from 8% reductions for the European Union and some others to 7% for the US, 6% for Japan, 0% for Russia, and permitted increases of 8% for Australia and 10% for Iceland."

Kyoto Protocol [2]

U.S. Crude sources

Daily oil consumption: about 15 million barrelsPetroleum imports account for 35% of U.S. trade deficit

US Production 35%

Canada 11%

Mexico 10%

Saudi Arabia 9%

Venezuela 8%

Others 20%

Various Commodity prices

Commodity Price Per GallonOrange Juice Tropicana $2.50 on sale

Coffee > 8.00 @starbucks ?

Grape Juice > 4.00

Milk [non-fat] 2.39

Spring Water 1.00

Ethanol 2.46*

Gasoline 2.50

When does it make sense to switch from gasoline to ethanol?

*production cost: $1.10; all subsidies: $1.36 gives $2.46 per gallon

Gasoline price around the world

Norway US$6.66/G

Netherlands

6.55

U.K. 6.17

Germany 5.98

Italy 5.94

France 5.68

Singapore 3.50

Brazil 3.35

India 3.29

Mexico 3.20

S. Africa 3.13

U.S. 2.26

Russia 2.05

China 1.78

Nigeria 1.48

Iran 0.47Source: New York Times [4/30/2005] “The $6.66-a-Gallon Solution; Oil-Rich Norwegians Take World's Highest Gasoline Prices in Stride”

Recent World Gasoline prices

Source: DOE Energy Information Administration; 11/14/2005

Netherlands $5.98/G

U.K. 5.96

Belgium 5.63

Italy 5.52

Germany 5.50

France 5.19

US 2.51

Gas Price

Oil and Politics

• US Middle East Policy– Treat Middle East countries as Cheap Gas

stations– Be good to Israel– Otherwise, do whatever they want

• Iraq War– Human tragedies and monetary Cost

• Windfall profit Tax of Oil companies?

Oil and Politics (cont.)

• Major Oil companies Q3 Profits: $33 Bhttp://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=XOM&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=xle%2Ccvx&c=%5EGSPC

Company Revenue Profit

Exxon-Mobil 317.1B 33.84B

Chevron 174.1B 13.40B

BP 345.0B 22.10B

ConocoPhilips 150.7B 12.30B

Royal Dutch/Shell - -

China’s Foreign Policy

• Search for Natural resources– Not just Oil, but other commodities also– China will be the largest auto market

• 250+ M autos by 2025 [from 12M, 2004]

– Environmental impact of gas guzzlers autos

– Implications of below market gas price– China Global Hunt for Energy

• Foreign Affairs [Sept/Oct. 2005]

• Taiwan

US Oil Supply Risks

• Saudi-Arabia• Venezuela• Natural Disaster• Terrorism• Increased competition (China, India)

A Coherent Energy Policy

• The “Moon Shot” of the 21 century– Alternatives to Oil

• Ethanol: Mid-West rather from Middle East– How much does one gallon of Ethanol cost?

• Renewal energy – Solar, Wind, geothermal, Nuclear Energy, etc.

– Independence of Foreign Oil• High oil price funds terrorists indirectly

– How to “Kick” the Oil habit?– A 500 MPG Vehicle

• Energy Efficiency/Conservation– A 500 MPG vehicle

A commoner’s Daily Energy Use

– Cooking– Bathing, cleaning– Dryer/washer– Lightings– Heating/Air Conditioning– Transportation– Entertainment– TV, Computers, etc.

Transportation

• Public Transportation – US vs. Elsewhere in the world

• The largest automobile market: China, India

• A major source of Air pollution– The other major source: Power plant

• Had the transportation industry kept pace with the computer industry, today we could travel coast to coast in 5 seconds for 50 cents. -anonymous

Hybrid Vehicles

• The gasoline-electric hybrids offer – Better Gas Mileage– Earth Friendly

• No SMOG Check until 2010 in CA

• Use the vehicle as a back up generator*• US Energy Policy Act of 2005

– Tax Credit up to $3,400 to hybrid owners• Car Pool Lane use of I-highway during rush hours

in certain states (e.g. CA, FL, VA)• Tax deduction of $2,000 in 2005 for a hybrid

purchase. Deduction reduced by $500 from 2006.

Hybrids Currently Available• Ford

– Ford ESCAPE, Mercury Mariner

• GM– Opel Astra (Diesel Hybrid, Europe only)

• Honda– Insight (International Engine of the year 2000) – Civic,– Accord

• Toyota and Lexus– Prius

• Motor Trend car of the year 2004• International Engine of the year 2004 • European car of the year 2004• North American Car of the year 2004

– RX 400h, – Highlander

AutoMakers Financial Health

Manufacturer

Revenue Market Cap Profit

DaimlerChrysler

172.6B 51.7B 2.72B

Ford 175.5B 15.7B 1.89B

GM 193.0B 13.3B -3.91B

Honda 80.4B 53B 4.5B

Toyota 172.7B 182B 10.9B

What Makes a Hybrid HotBusinessWeek November 14, 2005

Toyota Prius

Lexus RX 400h

Toyota Highlander

Ford ESCAPE

Honda Civic

Honda Accord

Days to Sell

8 10 16 34 36 56

Est. Annual Sales

105,000

22,000 20,000 24,000 28,000 20,000

Base Price

$21,275 $48,535 $33,030 $27,515 $21,850 $30,140

Premium Over Regular Model

$1,150* $11,110 $6,590 $3,300 $2,790 $3,290

EPA MPG (city/highway

)

60/51 31/27 33/28 36/31 49/51 29/37

Consumer Report MPG (city/highway)

35/50 16/29 16/28 22/29 36/45 18/37

2005 Toyota Prius

Economics of a Prius Purchase

• My Assumptions; your mileage may vary…– Drive 10,000 miles annually– Hybrid 40MPG vs non-hybrid 20MPG– Capital expense: $1,500– Gas price $2.00 - $3.00/Gallon– No tax rebates, but can drive in car pool lane

• Annual Gasoline savings: 250 Gallons • Bottom line:

– It takes about two to three years to break even.

– Moreover, a hybrid is very earth friendly!!!

Ford Escape Hybrid

• First SUV Hybrid, Launched in 2004• License a number of patents from Toyota• Sanyo of Japan builds the battery pack• Aisin AW, partly owned by Toyota, supplies

the continuously variable transmission (CVT).

Lexus RX-400H• 2nd Mass Produced SUV [2006 model ].

http://www.lexus.com/models/rx_hybrid/index.html

RX-400H vs RX-300RX-400H [Hybrid]

• MSRP: $44,660• Horsepower:

268hp@5600rpm• EPA MPG: city 33/highway 28• Regular unleaded, 17.2 Gallon• Weight: 4901 lbs• Range in miles

– City 568– Highway 482

RX-300 [non-hybrid]

• MSRP: $36,370• Horsepower: 223hp

@5600rpm• EPA MPG: city 19/highway 25• Regular unleaded, 19.2 Gallon• Weight: 3860 lbs• Range in miles

– City 365– Highway 480

Assume 10,000 miles driven/year, gas price $2.00-3.00/gallon,

It takes 23-34 years at the gas pump to make up the premium.

Notable facts about Hybrids• Free Parking in City of San

Jose*, LA• Prius fuel tank Capacity is

11.9 G. Range up to 600 miles.

• Prius Battery Pack has 100,000 miles or 8 years warranty. It is extended in CA: 150,000 miles, or 10 years. [ditto Lexus RX-400H.]

• Some states, e.g. CA, exempts hybrids from biennial smog inspection

* Purchased from City of San Jose dealers

Hybrid Vehicles Summary

• At least near-term to mid-term solution

• Perhaps long term solution too!• CO2 emission reduction• Duration for Gas savings to make up

cost premiums– SUV [Lexus RX-400H]: > 20 years

• Little economic incentive

– Passenger Car [Prius]: 2-3 years • Economically and environmentally sound

Housing

• Insulation– Heating and Air conditioning

• Lighting– Fluorescent vs. incandescent light bulb– Battery

• Cost 1000 times/kWh of PG&E’s

– Re-chargeable battery• Cost 10 times/kWh of PG&E’s

How to save on heating bill• Almost 50% of home energy bill goes to heating and cooling.• Lighting and appliances take about 25%• The rest is from TV, PC, cell phone charger, etc.• Look for Energy Star qualified products.

http://www.energystar.gov/

• Schedule a check up• Install a programmable thermostat• Plug up leaks• Add insulation, especially in your attic• Upgrade your appliances [tax credit starting 2006]http://yahoo.smartmoney.com/consumer/index.cfm?story=20031114

Compact Fluorescent Light Bulb

• Much more energy efficient as compared to incandescent light bulb.

• A 25W fluorescent light bulb gives similar “brightness” as a 100W incandescent light bulb.

• Longer lamp life: up to 10 times longer.

• CFL bulbs cost more, but save more energy in the long run.

Future: Solid State Lighting LEDs

• Claimed to be the replacements of fluorescent/incandescent bulbs.

• Consume much less the energy.• Used in Traffic Signals, night

lights, etc.• CREE is a public company in this

space.

AppliancesMicrowave Oven

Conventional ovenRefrigerator

WasherDryer

TV, VCR, DVD playersHi-Fi Speakers

Adapters for MP3 and cell phoneComputers, etc.

Power On, OFF and *Idling* are different!!

Energy-Saving Tips[1]

Cookings• When preheating an

oven, don't let it sit empty for longer than necessary, and don't open the door to check on food. Every time you do that, you lose 25% of the heat.

• Use a microwave oven instead of a regular oven. You'll burn about 40% less energy.

• Use the smallest pans possible. It takes energy to heat them.

• Use lids. They help the food cook more quickly by keeping steam inside.

• Use glass or ceramic pans in ovens. They heat faster than metal pans.

• Keep the inside of your microwave clean. It will cook your food more efficiently.

Energy Saving Tips [2]

Washing Machine, Dryer

• Wash and dry full loads, and don't over-dry clothes.

• Keep the dryer's lint filter clean.

• Wash laundry in cold water instead of hot, unless you're dealing with very dirty loads.

• Don't add wet items to a load in the dryer that has already been started.

DishWasher• Wash only full loads. It

costs exactly the same to wash one dish as a whole load.

• If your dishwasher has an air-dry feature, use it.

• If you wash by hand, rinse dishes in groups rather than one at a time, and don't leave the water running.

Energy Saving Tips – Refrigerator [3]

• Check refrigerator temperatures by putting one thermometer in a glass of water in the center of the fridge and another between packages in the freezer. You're losing money if temperatures are lower than 37-40 degrees for the main compartment and 0-5 degrees in the freezer.

• Cover and wrap food. Uncovered food and liquids release moisture and drive up electricity costs.

• Keep the freezer full. It's more efficient than an empty freezer. If necessary, fill up the space with plastic containers filled with water.

• If you have a second fridge that's not being used, unplug it. It can cost about $130 a year to keep it plugged in.

• Let hot food cool before putting it in the fridge. This way the fridge will use less energy to cool it down.

Energy-Saving Tips [4]water heater

• Lower your water heater temperature from 140 degrees to 120 degrees. You'll cut your water heating costs by 10% to 15%, the EEI says. Unfortunately, if you have an older-model dishwasher that doesn't have a booster heater (a device that heats up the water to the temperature the dishwasher needs to clean the dishes), you should leave the water heater set to 140 degrees to make sure the bacteria on your dishes are good and dead.

• Insulate your storage water heater tank. You'll save 4% to 9% on water heating costs.

• Drain the sediment from the bottom of the water heater tank every one to three years.

• Install low-flow shower head and faucets. They use one-third to half the water used by regular shower heads. You can cut your water use and water heating costs by an average 15% to 30%, according to the EEI.

• Take short showers (and preferably, no baths — showers use less hot water).

http://yahoo.smartmoney.com/dealoftheday/index.cfm?story=20051017

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