Energy and Climate Change in Central Asia

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Energy and ClimateChange in Central

Asia

Almaz Akhmetov

Department of RiskEngineering

Uchiyama LaboratoryUniversity of Tsukuba


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Outline

Climate Change and GlobalWarming

Climate Change and its causes in

Central Asia 3E concept of sustainable

development

Energy use, the Environment andEconomic Output interactions inCentral Asian republics

Concept of energy externalities.Ener cost with externalities:


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Climate Change andGlobal Warming

Climate change and global warming refer to anincrease in average global temperatures

Natural events and human activities contribute

to that increase. Primarily by increase ingreenhouse gases (mainly, Carbon Dioxide CO2)

A warming planet leads to a change in climate

in various ways Annually, more than 60% of global industrial

CO2 emissions originate in industrializedcountries, where only about 20% of the worlds

population lives


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In the 1880-1935 period, thetemperature anomaly was consistentlynegative

Since 1980 the anomaly has beenpositive



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Source: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis, NASA Goddard Institutefor Space Studies, accessed January 30, 2011

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/do_nmap.py?year_last=2010&month_last=11&sat=4&sst=1&type=anoms&mean_gen=11&year1=2010&year2=2010&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=reghttp://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/do_nmap.py?year_last=2010&month_last=11&sat=4&sst=1&type=anoms&mean_gen=11&year1=2010&year2=2010&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=reg


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Source: NOAA Research, 2011


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Climate ChangeIndicators


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Climate Change inCentral Asia

Source: Zoi environment network, 2009


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Energy-related GHG emissions are thehighest in the region



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Electricity Fuel MixKazakhstan


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Electricity Fuel MixKyrgyzstan


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Electricity Fuel MixTajikistan


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Electricity Fuel MixTurkmenistan

l i i l i


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Electricity Fuel MixUzbekistan


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concep osustainable

development Environmental protection, energy security andeconomic development are strongly affectedeach other

Balancing these priorities is critical to achieve asustainable development

Task: Secure the energy supply for economicdevelopment without negative impact on theenvironment

E


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Eco

nom

ies

of

C

and Economy in CentralAsia

CO i i i i


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CO2 emission intensityof GDP


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Energy intensity ofGDP


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Regression analysis was used formodeling and analyzingrelationship between a dependentvariable (CO2 emissions) and

independent variables (Energyuse, GDP)

The empirical results of regression

analysis will be the long-termrelationship of the variables

The results are interpreted in

growth terms in percentage

3E Analysismethodology


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3E Analysis results

KAZAKHSTAN: Energy use hasgreater impact on GHG emissionsthan economic output

1% increase in energy useincreases GHG emissions by 1.2%when GDP does not change

Energy conservation policies canreduce emissions without negativeimpact on economic developmentof Kazakhstan


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3E Analysis results

KYRGYZSTAN: Energy use hasgreater impact on CO2 emissionsthan economic output

1% increase in energy useincreases CO2 emissions by 1.24%when GDP does not change

Energy conservation policies canreduce emissions without negativeimpact on economic developmentof Kyrgyzstan


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3E Analysis results

TAJIKISTAN: Energy use hasgreater impact on CO2 emissionsthan economic output


Energy conservation policies canreduce emissions without negativeimpact on economic developmentof Tajikistan


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3E Analysis results

TURKMENISTAN: Energy use hasslightly bigger impact on CO2emissions than economic output


1% growth in GDP increases CO2emissions by 0.32% when energyuse does not change

In-depth analysis required to fullyunderstand the nature of the


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3E Analysis results

UZBEKISTAN: Energy use hasgreater impact on CO2 emissionsthan economic output


Energy conservation policies canreduce emissions without negativeimpact on economic developmentof Uzbekistan


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Energy externalities Conventional fossil fuel burning power plants

cause environmental problems (globalwarming, acidification, ozone layer depletion,etc.)

Human beings are exposed to climate change

directly and indirectly Human activities like energy conversion,

transport, industry, or agriculture causesubstantial environmental and human health

damages, which vary widely depending onwhere the activity takes place and on the typeof the activity

The damages caused are for the most part not

integrated into the pricing system


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Energy externalities The strategy tries to rebalance the social and

environmental dimension with the purelyeconomic one, accordingly leading to greaterenvironmental sustainability

To support this internalization, socio-

environmental damages must first be estimatedand monetized

There has been much progress in the analysis ofenvironmental damage costs, particularly

through the "ExternE" (External costs of Energy)European Research Network

Historically, these damages caused by energysystem are not included into the final cost of

energy in Central Asia

9


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externalities: Case of

wind power in

Kazakhstan

9ca

ndid

ate

sites


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Grid parity

0

0

00

00

00

KZT/kWh

Before tax LCOE Existing tariffs


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Grid parity with co-benefits

.000

.000

.0000

.0000

.0000

KZT/kWh

New LCOE with co -benefit Existing tariffs


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Conclusions

Central Asia is affected by climatechange

Energy policies addressing energyconservation should not have effect on

economic growth (apart fromTurkmenistan?)

Policies promoting renewable energy

technologies are necessary Internalization of externalities provides

the real cost of renewable energy

C t ifi i ifi

Documents

Energy and Climate Change in Central Asia