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ENCINITAS UNION SCHOOL DISTRICT(EUSD)
DEMOGRAPHIC REPORT
NOVEMBER 2004
This report contains:A review of forecasts made in 2002-03 and 2003-04What changes have occurred since June 2004The November 2004 forecastImplications for EUSD
2002-03 Base Assumptions
The City of Carlsbad forecast that an additional 1,553 residential units could be constructed within EUSD’s territory.The City of Encinitas forecast that an additional 3,961 residential units could be constructed within EUSD’s territory.The Pupils per Dwelling Unit ratios were as high as 0.486.Pupils per Dwelling Unit ratios of existing units located east of El Camino Real were increasing.
2002-03 School Capacity and Enrollment Assumptions
DISTRICT-WIDE ENROLLMENT AND CAPACITY
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000ENROLLMENT CAPACITY
2002-03 West of El Camino Real Forecast
WEST OF EL CAMINO REAL ENROLLMENT FORECAST
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
YEAR
ST
UD
EN
TS
COHORT-SURVIVAL SGR = 0.486 SGR = 0.271 CAPACITY
2002-03 East of El Camino Real Forecast
EAST OF EL CAMINO REAL ENROLLMENT FORECAST
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
YEAR
ST
UD
EN
TS
COHORT-SURVIVAL SGR = 0.486 SGR = 0.271 CAPACITY
2002-03 District-wide ForecastDISTRICT TOTAL ENROLLMENT FORECAST
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
YEAR
ST
UD
EN
TS
COHORT-SURVIVAL SGR = 0.486 SGR = 0.271 CAPACITY
November 2003-04 Base Assumptions
The number of residential units to be developed within the Cities of Carlsbad and Encinitas had not changed.The Pupils per Dwelling Unit average ratios were 0.263Pupils per Dwelling Unit ratios for existing residential units located east of El Camino Real were decreasing.
2003-04 West of El Camino Real Forecast
WEST OF EL CAMINO REAL ENROLLMENT FORECAST
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
2,300
2,400
2,500
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
YEAR
ST
UD
EN
TS
COHORT-SURVIVAL SGR = 0.226 SGR = 0.263 CAPACITY
2003-04 East of El Camino Real Forecast
EAST OF EL CAMINO REAL ENROLLMENT FORECAST
3,500
3,700
3,900
4,100
4,300
4,500
4,700
4,900
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
YEAR
ST
UD
EN
TS
COHORT-SURVIVAL SGR = 0.226 SGR = 0.263 CAPACITY
2003-04 District-wide ForecastDISTRICT TOTAL ENROLLMENT FORECAST
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
YEAR
ST
UD
EN
TS
COHORT-SURVIVAL SGR = 0.226 SGR = 0.263 CAPACITY
The April 2004 Demographic Update revealed:
The amount of residential units to be developed within the Cities of Carlsbad and Encinitas had decreased from 5,514 to 3,792.Home sales prices were increasing significantly.The average ratio of Pupils per Dwelling Unit of all school attendance areas had slightly increased from 0.263 to 0.275.
April 2004 Demographic Update
SCHOOLCURRENT
STUDENTSFUTURE UNITS
STUDENT GENERATION
RATE *
STUDENTS FROM FUTURE
UNITS
TOTAL FUTURE
STUDENTSCURRENT CAPACITY
PAUL ECKE CENTRAL ** 570 1,392 0.104 145 715 561OCEAN KNOLL 618 121 0.222 27 645 659CAPRI 448 1,139 0.167 190 638 512PARK DALE LANE 699 179 0.184 33 732 756FLORA VISTA 437 0 0.201 0 437 586LA COSTA HEIGHTS 632 492 0.180 89 721 683MISSION ESTANCIA 501 332 0.366 122 623 634OLIVENHAIN PIONEER 790 137 0.370 51 841 781EL CAMINO CREEK 908 0 0.680 0 908 976TOTAL/AVERAGE 5,603 3,792 0.275 656 6,259 6,148DISTRICT-WIDE SEATS NEEDED 111* ESTIMATED AT AVERAGE CURRENT STUDENTS PER TOTAL UNITS** 1,000 STUDIO UNITS PRODUCE NO STUDENTS
Table IV - 1
April 2004 Demographic Update
SCHOOLCURRENT
STUDENTSFUTURE UNITS
STUDENT GENERATION
RATE *
STUDENTS FROM FUTURE
UNITS
TOTAL FUTURE
STUDENTSCURRENT CAPACITY
PAUL ECKE CENTRAL ** 570 1,392 0.275 383 953 561OCEAN KNOLL 618 121 0.275 33 651 659CAPRI 448 1,139 0.275 313 761 512PARK DALE LANE 699 179 0.275 49 748 756FLORA VISTA 437 0 0.275 0 437 586LA COSTA HEIGHTS 632 492 0.275 135 767 683MISSION ESTANCIA 501 332 0.275 91 592 634OLIVENHAIN PIONEER 790 137 0.275 38 828 781EL CAMINO CREEK 908 0 0.275 0 908 976TOTAL/AVERAGE 5,603 3,792 0.275 1,043 6,646 6,148DISTRICT-WIDE SEATS NEEDED 498* ESTIMATED AT AVERAGE CURRENT STUDENTS PER TOTAL UNITS** 1,000 STUDIO UNITS PRODUCE NO STUDENTS
Table IV - 2
The June 2004 Demographic Update revealed:
The amount of residential units to be developed within the Cities of Carlsbad and Encinitas had decreased had decreased from 3,792 to 3,394.Home sales prices had increased significantly causing many district home prices to be out of reach for families with elementary school children.The average ratio of Pupils per Dwelling Unit of all school attendance areas had slightly increased from 0.275 to 0.277.
June 2004 Demographic Update
SCHOOLCURRENT
STUDENTSFUTURE UNITS
STUDENT GENERATION
RATE *
STUDENTS FROM FUTURE
UNITS
TOTAL FUTURE
STUDENTSCURRENT CAPACITY
PAUL ECKE CENTRAL ** 570 905 0.104 95 665 561OCEAN KNOLL 618 346 0.222 77 695 659CAPRI 448 1,263 0.167 211 659 512PARK DALE LANE 699 56 0.184 10 709 756FLORA VISTA 437 0 0.201 0 437 586LA COSTA HEIGHTS 632 492 0.180 89 721 683MISSION ESTANCIA 501 332 0.366 122 623 634OLIVENHAIN PIONEER 790 0 0.384 0 790 781EL CAMINO CREEK 908 0 0.680 0 908 976TOTAL/AVERAGE 5,603 3,394 0.277 603 6,206 6,148DISTRICT-WIDE SEATS NEEDED 58
Table IV - 1
June 2004 Demographic Update
SCHOOLCURRENT
STUDENTSFUTURE UNITS
STUDENT GENERATION
RATE *
STUDENTS FROM FUTURE
UNITS
TOTAL FUTURE
STUDENTSCURRENT CAPACITY
PAUL ECKE CENTRAL ** 570 905 0.277 251 821 561OCEAN KNOLL 618 346 0.277 96 714 659CAPRI 448 1,263 0.277 350 798 512PARK DALE LANE 699 56 0.277 16 715 756FLORA VISTA 437 0 0.277 0 437 586LA COSTA HEIGHTS 632 492 0.277 136 768 683MISSION ESTANCIA 501 332 0.277 92 593 634OLIVENHAIN PIONEER 790 0 0.277 0 790 781EL CAMINO CREEK 908 0 0.277 0 908 976TOTAL/AVERAGE 5,603 3,394 0.277 940 6,543 6,148DISTRICT-WIDE SEATS NEEDED 395* ESTIMATED AT AVERAGE CURRENT STUDENTS PER TOTAL UNITS
Table IV - 2
June 2004 Demographic Update
AVERAGE SALE PRICE OF SINGLE FAMILY UNITS
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
$550,000
$600,000
$650,000
$700,000
$750,000
DATE
PR
ICE
CARLSBAD ENCINITAS
New Information for this Report
Enrollment is declining over most of Southern California.The district’s sixth grade class that will graduate in 2004-05 is larger than the kindergarten class of 2004-05 thereby decreasing Pupils per Dwelling Unit ratios.The amount of residential units to be developed within the Cities of Carlsbad and Encinitas have decreased to 2,662.The average Pupils per Dwelling Unit has decreased to 0.198 with single family unit ratios at 0.278.Home sales prices have continued to be high.
New Information for this Report2004-05 CBEDS ENROLLMENT
SCHOOL ATTENDANCE AREA K 1 2 3 4 5 6 TOTAL
PAUL ECKE CENTRAL 91 51 86 78 80 73 66 525OCEAN KNOLL 74 73 79 82 95 73 85 561CAPRI 73 92 65 75 63 59 53 480PARK DALE LANE 85 95 93 129 105 82 99 688FLORA VISTA 63 55 62 71 65 68 75 459LA COSTA HEIGHTS 67 69 102 79 88 80 92 577MISSION ESTANCIA 57 79 58 64 80 77 71 486OLLIVENHAIN PIONEER 85 105 115 94 111 110 122 742EL CAMINO CREEK 123 134 137 128 120 129 120 891INTERDISTRICT TRANSFER 55 43 25 20 30 36 20 229TOTAL 773 796 822 820 837 787 803 5,638 TOTAL RESIDENT 718 753 797 800 807 751 783 5,409
AVERAGE SALE PRICE OF SINGLE FAMILY UNITS
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
$550,000
$600,000
$650,000
$700,000
$750,000
DATE
PR
ICE
CARLSBAD ENCINITAS
New Information for this Report
New Information for this Report
In what types of residential units do our resident students live.How many resident units are in each school’s attendance area.
New Information for this Report
SCHOOL OF RESIDENCE CONDOMULTI-FAMILY
MOBILE HOMES
INTER DISTRICT
TRANSFERS
SINGLE FAMILY
ATTACHED
SINGLE FAMILY
DETACHED TOTAL
PAUL ECKE CENTRAL 22 138 25 26 314 525OCEAN KNOLL 13 39 62 447 561CAPRI 20 72 3 8 377 480PARK DALE LANE 155 36 1 496 688FLORA VISTA 39 420 459LA COSTA HEIGHTS 76 13 10 478 577MISSION ESTANCIA 9 477 486OLLIVENHAIN PIONEER 3 5 33 701 742EL CAMINO CREEK 2 889 891TOTAL 337 303 29 229 141 4,599 5,638
STUDENTS THAT RESIDE IN:
New Information for this Report
SCHOOL ATTENDANCE AREA CONDO
MULTI-FAMILY
MOBILE HOMES
SINGLE FAMILY
ATTACHED
SINGLE FAMILY
DETACHED TOTALUNITS AT BUILDOUT
REMAINING UNITS
PAUL ECKE CENTRAL* 942 1,173 302 1,173 2,146 5,736 6,847 111OCEAN KNOLL 217 387 16 387 1,858 2,865 2,905 40CAPRI 374 522 84 522 2,030 3,532 3,824 292PARK DALE LANE 1,298 598 218 598 1,950 4,662 4,786 124FLORA VISTA 238 115 115 1,526 1,994 2,179 185LA COSTA HEIGHTS 1,437 99 99 1,938 3,573 3,995 422MISSION ESTANCIA 176 320 320 1,303 2,119 2,469 350OLLIVENHAIN PIONEER 78 22 22 2,016 2,138 2,275 137EL CAMINO CREEK 1,799 1,799 1,800 1TOTAL 4,760 3,236 620 3,236 16,566 28,418 31,080 2,662* EXCLUDES 1000 STUDIO UNITS
NUMBER OF RESIDENTIAL UNITS
New Information for this Report
SCHOOL ATTENDANCE AREA CONDO
MULTI-FAMILY
MOBILE HOMES
SINGLE FAMILY
ATTACHED
SINGLE FAMILY
DETACHED TOTAL
PAUL ECKE CENTRAL 0.023 0.118 0.083 0.022 0.146 0.092OCEAN KNOLL 0.060 0.101 0.000 0.160 0.241 0.196CAPRI 0.053 0.138 0.036 0.015 0.186 0.136PARK DALE LANE 0.119 0.060 0.005 0.000 0.254 0.148FLORA VISTA 0.164 0.000 0.000 0.275 0.230LA COSTA HEIGHTS 0.053 0.131 0.101 0.247 0.161MISSION ESTANCIA 0.051 0.000 0.000 0.366 0.229OLLIVENHAIN PIONEER 0.038 0.227 1.500 0.348 0.347EL CAMINO CREEK 0.494 0.495TOTAL 0.071 0.094 0.047 0.044 0.278 0.198
PUPILS PER DWELLING UNITS
Analysis of Factors that Affect Enrollment
Impact of economic factors – Analyze affordability for first-time buyer families and families with elementary school children. Impact of births for families in existing homes – Analyze female population between 18 and 44 yearsImpact of new residential development
Analysis of female population between 18 and 44 years
PAUL ECKE CENTRAL ELEMENTARY SCHOOL ATTENDANCE AREA
FEMALE REGISTERED VOTERS BY AGE
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
AGE
FR
EQ
UE
NC
Y
Mean 43.96Median 44.00Std. Deviation 16.781N 3,935
Analysis of female population between 18 and 44 years
OCEAN KNOLL ELEMENTARY SCHOOL ATTENDANCE AREAFEMALE REGISTERED VOTERS BY AGE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
AGE
FR
EQ
UE
NC
Y
Mean 46.73Median 46.00Std. Deviation 19.213N 2,324
Analysis of female population between 18 and 44 years
CAPRI ELEMENTARY SCHOOL ATTENDANCE AREAFEMALE REGISTERED VOTERS BY AGE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
AGE
FR
EQ
UE
NC
Y
Mean 45.31Median 45.00Std. Deviation 18.716N 2,488
Analysis of female population between 18 and 44 years
PARK DALE LANE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL ATTENDANCE AREA
FEMALE REGISTERED VOTERS BY AGE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
AGE
FR
EQ
UE
NC
Y
Mean 50.02Median 49.00Std. Deviation 19.603N 3,313
Analysis of female population between 18 and 44 years
FLORA VISTA ELEMENTARY SCHOOL ATTENDANCE AREAFEMALE REGISTERED VOTERS BY AGE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
AGE
FR
EQ
UE
NC
Y
Mean 46.13Median 47.00Std. Deviation 15.458N 1,822
Analysis of female population between 18 and 44 years
LA COSTA HEIGHTS ELEMENTARY SCHOOL ATTENDANCE AREAFEMALE REGISTERED VOTERS BY AGE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
AGE
FR
EQ
UE
NC
Y
Mean 48.62Median 49.00Std. Deviation 16.973N 2,935
Analysis of female population between 18 and 44 years
M ISSION ESTANCIA ELEM ENTARY SCHOOL ATTENDANCE AREAFEM ALE REGISTERED VOTERS BY AGE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
AGE
FR
EQ
UE
NC
Y
Mean 49.87Median 46.00Std. Deviation 19.699N 1,642
Analysis of female population between 18 and 44 years
OLIVENHAIN PIONEER ELEMENTARY SCHOOL ATTENDANCE AREA
FEMALE REGISTERED VOTERS BY AGE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
AGE
FR
EQ
UE
NC
Y
Mean 45.19Median 46.00Std. Deviation 14.466N 2,189
Analysis of female population between 18 and 44 years
EL CAM INO CREEK ELEM ENTARY SCHOOL ATTENDANCE AREAFEM ALE REGISTERED VOTERS BY AGE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
AGE
FR
EQ
UE
NC
Y
Mean 44.23Median 43.00Std. Deviation 13.356N 1,771
Impact of New Residential Development
Resident Students Only – Excludes Interdistrict Transfers
SCHOOL ATTENDANCE AREA
SINGLE FAMILY
DETACHED TOTALREMAINING
UNITS
FUTURE STUDENTS AVERAGE
PUPILS PER DWELLING
UNIT
FUTURE STUDENTS
SFD PUPILS PER
DWELLING UNIT
PAUL ECKE CENTRAL * 0.146 0.092 111 10 16OCEAN KNOLL 0.241 0.196 40 8 10CAPRI 0.186 0.136 292 40 54PARK DALE LANE 0.254 0.148 124 18 32FLORA VISTA 0.275 0.230 185 43 51LA COSTA HEIGHTS 0.247 0.161 422 68 104MISSION ESTANCIA 0.366 0.229 350 80 128OLLIVENHAIN PIONEER 0.348 0.347 137 48 48EL CAMINO CREEK 0.494 0.495 1 0 0TOTAL 0.278 0.198 1,662 315 443* EXCLUDES 1000 STUDIO UNITS
Impact of New Residential Development –Average PPDU Forecast
SCHOOL ATTENDANCE AREA
2004-05 STUDENTS
FUTURE STUDENTS
STUDENTS AT
BUILDOUT2003-04
CAPACITY
CAPACITY ADDED IN
2004-05NEW SEATS
NEEDED
PAUL ECKE CENTRAL 525 10 535 561 0 -26OCEAN KNOLL 561 8 569 659 0 -90CAPRI 480 40 520 512 100 -92PARK DALE LANE 688 18 706 756 0 -50FLORA VISTA 459 43 502 586 0 -84LA COSTA HEIGHTS 577 68 645 683 0 -38MISSION ESTANCIA 486 80 566 634 0 -68OLLIVENHAIN PIONEER 742 48 790 781 0 9EL CAMINO CREEK 891 0 891 976 0 -85TOTAL 5,409 315 5,724 6,148 100 -524
Resident Students Only – Excludes Interdistrict Transfers
Impact of New Residential Development
SCHOOL ATTENDANCE AREA
2004-05 STUDENTS
FUTURE STUDENTS
STUDENTS AT
BUILDOUT2003-04
CAPACITY
CAPACITY ADDED IN
2004-05NEW SEATS
NEEDED
PAUL ECKE CENTRAL 525 16 541 561 0 -20OCEAN KNOLL 561 10 571 659 0 -88CAPRI 480 54 534 512 100 -78PARK DALE LANE 688 32 720 756 0 -36FLORA VISTA 459 51 510 586 0 -76LA COSTA HEIGHTS 577 104 681 683 0 -2MISSION ESTANCIA 486 128 614 634 0 -20OLLIVENHAIN PIONEER 742 48 790 781 0 9EL CAMINO CREEK 891 0 891 976 0 -85TOTAL 5,409 443 5,852 6,148 100 -396
Resident Students Only – Excludes Interdistrict Transfers
Annual Enrollment Forecast Average Pupils per Dwelling Unit (PPD)
RESIDENT SCHOOL 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 CAPACITYSEATS
NEEDED
PAUL ECKE CENTRAL 525 558 584 603 624 637 685 693 703 716 726 746 561 185OCEAN KNOLL 561 551 553 533 526 522 524 525 528 533 535 546 659 -113CAPRI 480 503 520 533 534 545 529 532 537 544 548 561 512 49PARK DALE LANE 688 674 677 657 613 605 595 595 597 601 604 615 756 -141FLORA VISTA 459 450 448 449 444 448 459 462 467 473 477 489 586 -97LA COSTA HEIGHTS 577 557 549 533 526 496 499 504 511 519 526 539 683 -144MISSION ESTANCIA 486 478 464 447 446 451 435 441 448 457 465 478 634 -156OLLIVENHAIN PIONEER 742 705 688 666 661 635 619 623 629 637 644 659 781 -122EL CAMINO CREEK 891 888 870 855 827 791 757 757 757 734 734 717 976 -259INTERDISTRICT TRANSFER 229 209 173 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0TOTAL 5,638 5,573 5,526 5,276 5,201 5,130 5,102 5,132 5,177 5,214 5,259 5,350 6,148 -798
Annual Enrollment ForecastSingle Family Detached PPD
RESIDENT SCHOOL 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 CAPACITYSEATS
NEEDED
PAUL ECKE CENTRAL 525 563 594 618 644 662 715 728 743 761 776 801 561 240OCEAN KNOLL 561 551 553 533 526 522 524 525 528 533 535 546 659 -113CAPRI 480 504 522 536 538 550 535 539 545 553 558 572 512 60PARK DALE LANE 688 674 677 657 613 605 595 595 597 601 604 615 756 -141FLORA VISTA 459 450 448 449 444 448 459 462 467 473 477 489 586 -97LA COSTA HEIGHTS 577 556 547 530 522 491 493 497 503 510 516 528 683 -155MISSION ESTANCIA 486 480 468 453 454 461 447 455 464 475 485 500 634 -134OLLIVENHAIN PIONEER 742 711 700 684 685 665 655 665 677 691 704 725 781 -56EL CAMINO CREEK 891 892 878 867 843 811 781 785 789 770 774 761 976 -215INTERDISTRICT TRANSFER 229 209 173 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0TOTAL 5,638 5,590 5,560 5,327 5,269 5,215 5,204 5,251 5,313 5,367 5,429 5,537 6148 -611
Impact of Enrollment and Assessed Valuation on Operating Revenue
- - - - UNSECURED - - - -LOCALLY STATE TOTAL TOTAL PERCENT
ASSESSED ASSESSED SECURED UNSECURED TOTAL GROWTH2004-05 9,856,080,390 1,964,406 9,858,044,796 130,654,532 9,988,699,328 13.16%2003-04 8,705,300,883 2,063,960 8,707,364,843 119,388,411 8,826,753,254 11.14%2002-03 7,827,696,331 2,388,513 7,830,084,844 111,847,181 7,941,932,025 10.54%2001-02 7,071,119,159 2,651,492 7,073,770,651 111,204,716 7,184,975,367 10.75%2000-01 6,371,571,219 2,599,400 6,374,170,619 113,607,911 6,487,778,530 11.81%1999-00 5,688,438,817 2,545,065 5,690,983,882 111,669,957 5,802,653,839
AVERAGE 11.48%Source: http://www.co.san-diego.ca.us/pts/newyear/trb.html
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SECURED - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ASSESSED VALUATION
Impact of Enrollment and Assessed Valuation on Operating Revenue
OPERATING REVENUE ESTIMATE - AVERAGE PPD
$20,000,000$22,000,000
$24,000,000$26,000,000$28,000,000
$30,000,000$32,000,000$34,000,000
$36,000,000$38,000,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
YEAR
RE
VE
NU
E
REVENUE LIMIT LOCAL
Assumes a 4 percent growth in AV, 2.7 percent COLA in annual RL funding and 0.98 ADA
Impact of Enrollment and Assessed Valuation on Operating Revenue
OPERATING REVENUE ESTIMATE - SFD PPD
$20,000,000$22,000,000$24,000,000
$26,000,000$28,000,000$30,000,000$32,000,000
$34,000,000$36,000,000$38,000,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
YEAR
RE
VE
NU
E
REVENUE LIMIT LOCAL
Assumes a 4 percent growth in AV, 2.7 percent COLA in annual RL funding and 0.98 ADA
Impact of Enrollment and Assessed Valuation on Operating Revenue
OPERATING REVENUE ESTIMATE - AVERAGE PPD
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
$30,000,000
$35,000,000
$40,000,000
$45,000,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
YEAR
RE
VE
NU
E
REVENUE LIMIT LOCAL
Assumes a 5 percent growth in AV, 2.7 percent COLA in annual RL funding and 0.98 ADA
Impact of Enrollment and Assessed Valuation on Operating Revenue
OPERATING REVENUE ESTIMATE - SFD PPD
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
$30,000,000
$35,000,000
$40,000,000
$45,000,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
YEAR
RE
VE
NU
E
REVENUE LIMIT LOCAL
Assumes a 5 percent growth in AV, 2.7 percent COLA in annual RL funding and 0.98 ADA
When could EUSD enrollment expect to grow?
SAN DIEGO COUNTY K-12 AGE POPULATION
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
YEAR
NU
MB
ER
OF
PE
RS
ON
S
TOTAL K-6 TOTAL 7-8 TOTAL 9-12
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA DEPARTM ENT OF FINANCE, 2004
ConclusionsEnrollment growth could be negative or flat until between 2012 and 2018.Assessed valuation will likely increase faster than the minimum 2 percent authorized under Proposition 13.Local revenue will likely exceed Revenue Limit revenue for resident ADA until 2015.Current facilities will likely have sufficient capacity through 2015.Our next school may not be needed until 2020.
