Enabling ICT Adoption in Enabling ICT Adoption in Developing Knowledge Developing Knowledge

SocietiesSocieties

Colin HarrisonColin HarrisonIBM CorporationIBM Corporation

ch@zurich.ibm.comch@zurich.ibm.com

OverviewOverview

““How can we bootstrap self-sustaining ICT How can we bootstrap self-sustaining ICT infrastructures in developing e-Societies?”infrastructures in developing e-Societies?”

Technology DiffusionTechnology Diffusion

Special Characteristics of ICTechnologiesSpecial Characteristics of ICTechnologies

Framework for AdoptionFramework for Adoption

Rates of Technology AdoptionRates of Technology Adoption

WWW

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Technology DiffusionTechnology Diffusion

““Crossing the Chasm”, (Moore 2000)Crossing the Chasm”, (Moore 2000) Adoption curves for emerging technologiesAdoption curves for emerging technologies Challenges of being an Early AdopterChallenges of being an Early Adopter Example: 1G mobile telephonyExample: 1G mobile telephony Necessity of an Early Adopter community to Necessity of an Early Adopter community to

“crossing the Chasm”“crossing the Chasm”

Positive Returns to ScalePositive Returns to Scale

New technologies initially very expensiveNew technologies initially very expensive Early Adopters must be highly motivated by high Early Adopters must be highly motivated by high

perceived valueperceived valueHigh price, high riskHigh price, high riskLow performance, reliability, and ease of useLow performance, reliability, and ease of use

But price will drop rapidly as volume market But price will drop rapidly as volume market emergesemerges Late Adopters need much less motivationLate Adopters need much less motivation

Low price, low riskLow price, low riskGood performance, very reliable, easy to useGood performance, very reliable, easy to use

Can a new technology cross this Chasm?Can a new technology cross this Chasm?

Secondary DiffusionSecondary Diffusion

Primary DiffusionPrimary Diffusion Drives initial volumes and reduces priceDrives initial volumes and reduces price Supports a particular set of needs and valuesSupports a particular set of needs and values

Migration of technology into a new societyMigration of technology into a new society Usually a less wealthy communityUsually a less wealthy community New generation of Early AdoptersNew generation of Early Adopters Technology may still be only marginally affordableTechnology may still be only marginally affordable New/different needs and valuesNew/different needs and values

New opportunities, choice for cost reductionNew opportunities, choice for cost reduction Exogenous vs indigenous diffusionExogenous vs indigenous diffusion

Criteria for Technology Diffusion Criteria for Technology Diffusion into a Developing Knowledge into a Developing Knowledge

SocietySocietyA minimum level of service or benefit that meets a key A minimum level of service or benefit that meets a key set of needs and wants of some members of the set of needs and wants of some members of the society.society.A set of technologies that is affordable by those A set of technologies that is affordable by those members of the society.members of the society.A collection of centralized and end-user skills A collection of centralized and end-user skills (services) that is sufficient to deploy, operate, and use (services) that is sufficient to deploy, operate, and use the technology to meet the key wants and needs.the technology to meet the key wants and needs.A set of technical, commercial, and educational A set of technical, commercial, and educational mechanisms that enables the new technology to mechanisms that enables the new technology to become indigenous rather than exotic, hence become indigenous rather than exotic, hence sustainable, and to expand its accessibility to the sustainable, and to expand its accessibility to the broader society.broader society.

ICT “Stack” (simplified)ICT “Stack” (simplified)

Semiconductor & Storage Technologies

Device Technologies (chips, lasers, disks, displays)

System Technologies (computers, network hardware, printers)

Software Technologies (compilers, operating systems, middleware, system management)

Application Technologies (medical infomatics, engineering design, knowledge management)

Purpose/Task Knowledge

Sci

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Installation, configuration, operation, m

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Special Characteristics of ICTSpecial Characteristics of ICT

Extreme Positive Returns to ScaleExtreme Positive Returns to Scale Volumes drive exponential cost reductionsVolumes drive exponential cost reductions Example: Laptops and supercomputersExample: Laptops and supercomputers But, extremely high manufacturing investmentBut, extremely high manufacturing investment

““Impossibility” of low cost computersImpossibility” of low cost computers Low volume means very high cost in ICTLow volume means very high cost in ICT

Corollary of Extreme Positive Returns to ScaleCorollary of Extreme Positive Returns to Scale Engaging in primary technology diffusionEngaging in primary technology diffusion Only deals with the bottom of the stackOnly deals with the bottom of the stack

PCs are the cheap part anyway for the Early Adopter PCs are the cheap part anyway for the Early Adopter communitycommunity

Special Characteristics of ICTSpecial Characteristics of ICT

Generations of technologyGenerations of technology Stack has to fit together verticallyStack has to fit together vertically Cannot drift more than 1-2 generations behind or Cannot drift more than 1-2 generations behind or

costs begin to risecosts begin to rise OSS OSS couldcould be a way around this be a way around this

Centralization of SkillsCentralization of Skills Power of ICT to capture knowledge in the technology Power of ICT to capture knowledge in the technology

– massive replication of intellectual property– massive replication of intellectual property Ability of ICT to support remote delivery of skillAbility of ICT to support remote delivery of skill Knowledge remains exogenousKnowledge remains exogenous Knowledge becomes increasing remote/exogenous Knowledge becomes increasing remote/exogenous

as we go down the stackas we go down the stack How far down the stack do we need to go?How far down the stack do we need to go?

Special Characteristics of ICTSpecial Characteristics of ICT

Product or Service?Product or Service? Today’s ICT reflects the values, skills, and finances Today’s ICT reflects the values, skills, and finances

of the westernised middle-classesof the westernised middle-classes Historical ascending succession of capabilitiesHistorical ascending succession of capabilities

BBS lead to e-mail lead to WWW lead to e-commerce lead BBS lead to e-mail lead to WWW lead to e-commerce lead to communities (BBS)to communities (BBS)

Experienced as a productExperienced as a productHistorical evolution of PCHistorical evolution of PC

Initially stand alone, hence in the homeInitially stand alone, hence in the home Cf. telephone – experienced as a serviceCf. telephone – experienced as a service

It’s a choiceIt’s a choice

Framework for Adopting ICT in Framework for Adopting ICT in Emerging Knowledge SocietiesEmerging Knowledge SocietiesWhat needs and wants do we wish to address What needs and wants do we wish to address by this deployment?by this deployment?What forms of ICT can address the various What forms of ICT can address the various classes of needs and wants?classes of needs and wants?How do we create a sustainable ICT How do we create a sustainable ICT infrastructure that addresses those needs and infrastructure that addresses those needs and wants?wants?How do we evolve such an ICT infrastructure How do we evolve such an ICT infrastructure as the needs and wants and abilities of the as the needs and wants and abilities of the society evolve?society evolve?

Social roles and potential benefits Social roles and potential benefits of ICT services.of ICT services.

Role E-mail Access to Information

e-Commerce Community

Student Simple e-Learning Opportunity for higher levels of education

Selling/buying coaching services

Collaboration with other students.

Experience of other cultures

Artisan Simple e-commerce Awareness of demand for styles, prices

Micro-business, access to markets

New markets, sharing of techniques

Farmer Simple e-commerce Awareness of demand for products, prices

Micro-business, choice of markets

Cooperatives, negotiating organizations

Nurse or General MD Requests to hospital, pharmacies

Treatments, medical alerts, epidemics, continuing education

Buying medical supplies, choice of suppliers

Communities of practice

Merchant Simple e-commerce Awareness of demand for styles, prices

Buying stock, choice of suppliers

Buying cooperatives

All Staying in touch with extended family and friends

Awareness of the region, country, world.

Increased choice Experience of other cultures

Alternative Solutions Post, personal travel Libraries, newspapers, circulating letters

Local markets, wholesalers

Local trade associations, newsletter, travel to meetings

How can ICT Meet the Early How can ICT Meet the Early Adopters Wants & Needs?Adopters Wants & Needs?

Bootstrap the new infrastructureBootstrap the new infrastructure Cf. Existing infrastructureCf. Existing infrastructure

Use only what is needed to meet the Use only what is needed to meet the needs of the early adoptersneeds of the early adopters Add more function/capacity as new adopters Add more function/capacity as new adopters

come forwardcome forward Help it to build a root systemHelp it to build a root system

Consider Service vs ProductConsider Service vs Product ICT as a means to build social capitalICT as a means to build social capital

How Do We Create a Sustainable How Do We Create a Sustainable ICT Infrastructure?ICT Infrastructure?

Technology Accessibility Opportunity for local value-add

Personal computer management High High, probably difficult to provide remotely

Server operation (architecture, service definition, tariffs)

High High

Server management High High, though could be provided remotely

Network operation (architecture, policies, tariffs)

High, but needs high skill levels High

Network management Moderate, but needs high skill levels High

Software installation High, mainly skill-based, little capital required

High

Software development Moderate through Open Source Software communities, but needs very high skill levels

Low, will not add significant value in the short term

Hardware repair (computer and network equipment)

Moderate, mainly skill-based, but may require some electronic test gear, also spare parts

High

Hardware installation High, mainly skill-based, little capital required

High

Assembled systems Very low (very high capital investment) Minimal

Chip and storage Extremely low (massive capital investment)

Zero

How Does the Infrastructure Evolve?How Does the Infrastructure Evolve?

Crossing the Chasm – then what?Crossing the Chasm – then what?

Growing function & number of usersGrowing function & number of users

Reaching financial sustainabilityReaching financial sustainability

Realizing the capital createdRealizing the capital created

SummarySummary

The deployment of ICT in developing knowledge societies poses a The deployment of ICT in developing knowledge societies poses a set of choices that reflect the unique features of these technologies, set of choices that reflect the unique features of these technologies, the economics of bootstrapping new technologies, and the specific the economics of bootstrapping new technologies, and the specific needs of the community.needs of the community.

The opportunities for developing sustainability in the ICT deployment The opportunities for developing sustainability in the ICT deployment are most likely to be in the operation and management of the are most likely to be in the operation and management of the systems and services rather than in the development of hardware or systems and services rather than in the development of hardware or software systems and this can bring highly valuable new skills to the software systems and this can bring highly valuable new skills to the community.community.

Alternatives exist to the Western middle-class model of ICT, notably Alternatives exist to the Western middle-class model of ICT, notably the delivery of ICT as a set of services rather than products.the delivery of ICT as a set of services rather than products.

The ultimate success of such a deployment is probably identified by The ultimate success of such a deployment is probably identified by the acquisition of the community’s systems and services into a larger the acquisition of the community’s systems and services into a larger organization, but will leave the community enriched with new skills organization, but will leave the community enriched with new skills and opportunitiesand opportunities