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como sera el mundo en el 2050
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A Scenario Study
Project Presentation
Congreso Internacional Sala Logística Caribe 2012
Cartagena –Colombia November 29th & 30th
Alejandro Adelsohn SSA Sales Head DHL Global Forwarding
Logistics 2050:
Deutsche Post DHL | Page Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study 2
Background:
Continue Series of Thought Leadership Publications
Delphi Study
2009
Towards Sustainable
Logistics
2010
Logistics 2050: A Scenario Study…
2011/2012
… is a strategic initiative
within the Group’s 2011
Comms Strategy
… will continue the
„Delivering Tomorrow“
publication series which
started in 2009 with the
“Delphi study” and
continued in 2010 with
“Towards Sustainable
Logistics”
Deutsche Post DHL | Page Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study 3
Project Overview “Logistics 2050”
Time horizon: 40 years
Scope: Develop different scenarios of the logistics environment in 2050
Focus: Scenarios are based on projected developments of macro-economic, geopolitical, social and technological drivers
Relevance: Study not only presents different scenarios but also highlights strategies to respond to the challenges and opportunities associated with each scenario
Sources: internal as well as relevant external experts involved in the development process
Delivering the first comprehensive and far-reaching scenario study
on the future of logistics Objective:
Deutsche Post DHL | Page Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study 4
„It is impossible to predict the future
"It is impossible to
predict the future but also
dangerous not to try." Henri Deterding, Founder of Royal Dutch Shell
Deutsche Post DHL | Page Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study
Night Energy Use Early 1970’s
1970
Deutsche Post DHL | Page Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study
Night Energy Use 2005
Today
Deutsche Post DHL | Page Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study 7
Logistics 2050 Scenarios – Overview
Untamed Economy – Impending Collapse 1
Megaefficiency in Megacities 2
Customized Lifestyles 3
Paralyzing Protectionism 4
Global Resilience – Local Adaptation 5
Deutsche Post DHL | Page Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study
Deutsche Post DHL | Page Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study
The South is the New North
Nobody´s
back yard:
The rise of Latin
America
Deutsche Post DHL | Page Logistics 2050 | Bonn | October 2011 10
Szenario 1: Untamed Economy – Impending Collapse
Key Elements
Unsustainable
economic development
World driven by
materialism
Economic shift to Asian
countries
Trade barriers lifted
Global “super grid” for
transport
Uncontrolled
exploitation of natural
resources
Destruction of natural
environments
Logistics
Implications
Massively increased
global logistics market
Manufacturers outsource
their logistics needs
Climate change opens
arctic trade corridors
Extreme weather events
threaten established trade
routes
Scenario 1: Untamed Economy – Impending Collapse
Deutsche Post DHL | Page Logistics 2050 | Bonn | October 2011 11
Szenario 1: Untamed Economy – Impending Collapse
Arctic routes have
become navigable
Constant race for
resource extraction
leads to destruction
of ecosystems
Vessel size far
bigger than before
Extreme events
have increased
noticeably
Former developing
countries have
turned into high-tech
locations
Center of economic
power has shifted to
Asia
Scenario 1: Untamed Economy – Impending Collapse
Deutsche Post DHL | Page Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study 12
Logistics 2050 Scenarios – Overview
Untamed Economy – Impending Collapse 1
Megaefficiency in Megacities 2
Customized Lifestyles 3
Paralyzing Protectionism 4
Global Resilience – Local Adaptation 5
Deutsche Post DHL | Page Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study
Capital Flow in Emerging Economies
Source: Institute of International Finance, IIF.
Deutsche Post DHL | Page Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study
Growth in China Cities
Fuente: Malkin y Spiegel, Is China Due for a Slowdown?, Reserva Federal de San Francisco.
Deutsche Post DHL | Page Logistics 2050 | Bonn | October 2011 15
Szenario 2: Megaefficiency in Megacities
Key Elements
Megacities have become
epicenters of green growth
Nation-states have
become second-tier
players
Production and services
highly automated
Manufacturing in robotized
plants
Efficient transport concepts
for local and global
connections
However: rural regions left
economically behind
Logistics Implications
Global transport with mega-
transporters between
megacities
Unmanned low orbit
transporters for express
deliveries
Freight dispatch centers in
cities to pool goods
New transport modes like
underground cargo
transporters
Electric vehicles for
deliveries
Logistics providers become
megacity utilities
Logistics situation in rural
areas very poor
Scenario 2: Megaefficiency in Megacities
Deutsche Post DHL | Page Logistics 2050 | Bonn | October 2011 16
Szenario 2: Megaefficiency in Megacities
Scenario 2: Megaefficiency in Megacities
Majority of
population resides in
urban areas by 2050
Widening gap
between urban and
rural areas
Megacities are well
connected to the
other megacities
worldwide
Huge unmanned
cargo planes
New types of
transportation in
cities
Unmanned low orbit
transporters allow
quick point-to-point
express delivery
Deutsche Post DHL | Page Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study 17
Logistics 2050 Scenarios – Overview
Untamed Economy – Impending Collapse 1
Megaefficiency in Megacities 2
Customized Lifestyles 3
Paralyzing Protectionism 4
Global Resilience – Local Adaptation 5
Deutsche Post DHL | Page Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study 18
West Needs vs Asia Needs
Source: adapted from M. Witt, INSEAD EMBA course 2004
Deutsche Post DHL | Page Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study 19
Product Cycle in the West vs. Cycle in Asia
Source: adapted from M. Witt, INSEAD EMBA course 2004
Deutsche Post DHL | Page Logistics 2050 | Bonn | October 2011 20
Szenario 3: Customized Lifestyles
Key Elements
Individualization has become
a pervasive phenomenon
Consumers empowered to
design their own products
Technological progress:
Home Fabbing
Local FabShops
Industrial Fabbing
Regionalized trade, local
product flows
International trade of data
and raw materials (for
printers)
Logistics Implications
Long distance transport of
goods drops sharply
Regional logistics capabilities
important
Supply chains less
fragmented
Logistics in 2050 consists of
an online and an offline
element:
– Offline segment: raw
material transport &
reverse logistics
– Online segment for secure
data transfer
Scenario 3: Customized Lifestyles
Deutsche Post DHL | Page Logistics 2050 | Bonn | October 2011 21
Szenario 3: Customized Lifestyles
Scenario 3: Customized Lifestyles
Billions of households owning a
home 3D-printer in 2050
More sophisticated items
produced in fab shops
Mobile 3D printing
Raw material logistics that
serves 3D printing cartridge
manufacturers
Deutsche Post DHL | Page Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study 22
Logistics 2050 Scenarios – Overview
Untamed Economy – Impending Collapse 1
Megaefficiency in Megacities 2
Customized Lifestyles 3
Paralyzing Protectionism 4
Global Resilience – Local Adaptation 5
Deutsche Post DHL | Page Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study 23
Economic Diversity vs Income
Economic Diversification
Inco
me
pe
r P
ers
on
Exportaciones RRNN
<10% PIB
Exportaciones RRNN
>10% PIB
Deutsche Post DHL | Page Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study 24
Singapore –Diversification
PapeleríaEq. TransporteMaquinariaPulpaMaderaRopaMaq. EléctricaManuf. MaderaMetales no ferrososHierro y aceroOtros
1975 Exports
ElectrónicaReactores, calderasPapeleríaAceite mineral, petróleoHierro y aceroVehículosMaderaBarcosPlásticosArt. ÓpticosOtros
2010 Exports
Deutsche Post DHL | Page Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study 25
Ireland-Diversification
1975 Exports 2009 Exports
Prod. Farmacéuticos
Prod. Químicos
Maquinaria no elec
Perfumes y prod. Aseo
Manuf. Miscellaneos
Maquinaria eléctrica
Otros
Carne
Lacteos
Animales vivos
Maquinaria no elec
Textiles
Transaccione especiales
Otros
FUENTE: UNCTAD
Deutsche Post DHL | Page Logistics 2050 | Bonn | October 2011 26
Szenario 4: Paralyzing Protectionism
Key Elements
Economic hardship sets
globalization in reverse
Trading mainly within
regional blocs
Regionalized supply chains
Productivity decline
Scarce resources (also due
to protectionism)
International conflicts over
resource deposits as result
Logistics Implications
Entering markets in foreign
trading blocs nearly
impossible
Substantially reduced volume
for global logistics operations
Domestic markets gain
importance
Advantages for regional
champions with good
government relations
“Devaluation” of logistics:
Few customized solutions –
very commoditized business
Scenario 4: Paralyzing Protectionism
Deutsche Post DHL | Page Logistics 2050 | Bonn | October 2011 27
Szenario 4: Paralyzing Protectionism
Almost no exchange
of goods between
different regions
Switch to locally
available energy
sources
Resource extraction
has increased
Clearing customs
can take several
weeks.
Protectionism is
common practice
Threat of small
conflicts connected
with resource
deposits
International
express and
forwarding segment
shrinking
Scenario 4: Paralyzing Protectionism
Deutsche Post DHL | Page Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study 28
Logistics 2050 Scenarios – Overview
Untamed Economy – Impending Collapse 1
Megaefficiency in Megacities 2
Customized Lifestyles 3
Paralyzing Protectionism 4
Global Resilience – Local Adaptation 5
Deutsche Post DHL | Page Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study 29
Exchange Terms vs Price of Commodities
Latam: Terminos de Intercambio y Precio Materias Primas
(Índice 2000T1=100)
Emerging countries are taking wealth
from rich countries
Deutsche Post DHL | Page Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study 30
In LATAM 50% Of Exports Come From 27 Products That Have Little Or
No Added Value At All
Exports as of GDP Commodities as %
of Exp
Argentina 18% 66%
Brasil 11% 64%
Chile 34% 89%
Perú 27% 86%
Colombia 18% 77%
Ecuador 36% 90%
Venezuela 30% 98%
México 31% 24%
América Latina 19% 56%
Food & Mining
Mining
Fuels
Diversified industrial Goods
What If ??
Deutsche Post DHL | Page Logistics 2050 | Bonn | October 2011 32
Szenario 5: Global Resilience – Local Adaptation
Key Elements
The run-up
(first decades of 21st century):
Numerous disasters due to
climate change
Lean production threatened
(vulnerable supply chains)
Result: change in thinking
Resilience as new economic
paradigm
Change to regionalized supply
chains
Move towards redundant
systems / supply safety
Quick reactions to production
failures
Disaster relief important
Logistics Implications
Supply security top priority
Shorter transport distances
favor companies with regional
roots
Logistics firms hold ready
redundant capacities
– Warehouses as buffers
instead of Just in Time
– Truck, train and ship fleets
used as backup
Major role for international
providers > financial strength
Disaster relief operations a
successful business
Scenario 5: Global Resilience – Local Adaptation
Deutsche Post DHL | Page Logistics 2050 | Bonn | October 2011
Szenario 5: Global Resilience – Local Adaptation
Scenario 5: Global Resilience – Local Adaptation
Transport capacities stand ready
for emergencies
Emergency logistics providers
offer comprehensive disaster
response
Many areas frequently
threatened by disasters
Huge warehouse structures
located close to manufacturer as
buffers
Deutsche Post DHL | Page Logistics 2050. A Scenario Study 34
SUMMARY
In a volatile environment only one thing is certain: the certainty of continuous change.
This type of environment presents a challenge for a company strategy and
requires the highest possible degree of strategic agility.
Only those who prepare for this environment can be certain that the future will
not only hold challenges and risks , but also opportunities.
Project Presentation
Credits:
Foro Multilatinas America Economia Delivering Tomorrow Friends and Family
Thank You