Emission Reductions Improve Air Quality

Charles Blanchard, Stephanie Shaw, Eric Edgerton, James Schwab

Energy-Related Air Quality and Health Effects Research Workshop

April 9 – 10, 2019

NYSERDA PON 2981

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

NO

x Em

issi

on

s (1

00

0 m

etri

c to

ns)

Year

NY NY and Adjacent States and Provinces Regional Larger Regional

Large, Widespread Emission Reductions, 1996 – 2016

2

NY plus adjacent: PA, NJ, CT, MA, VT, QU, ON

Regional:Adjacent + OH, WV, RI, NH, ME

Larger region: Regional + MI, MD, DE, VA

NY State

NOx Emissions

63% reduction

61% reduction

68% reduction

63% reduction

Source: U.S. EPA trends inventory; Environment and Climate Change Canada air pollutant emission inventory

Mean Annual Ambient NO2 Declined at NY Sites

3

All NY State NO2 monitoring sites (N = 5 – 12 sites per year, ≥ 7 sites except 2012 & 2013)

Source: U.S. EPA Air Quality System (AQS) pre-generated data files

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Mean A

nnual N

O2 (

ppbv)

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Ambient NO2 Decline Tracked NOx Emissions

4

New York Botanical Garden/Pfizer Lab, Morrisania Center/IS52, Buffalo, Queens

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Mu

lti-

sit

e M

ea

n A

nn

ual

NO

2(p

pb

v)

NO

xE

mis

sio

ns (

millio

n m

etr

ic to

ns

)

Year

Regional NOx Emissions Multi-Site Average NO2

Source: U.S. EPA Air Quality System (AQS) pre-generated data files

r2 = 0.97

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1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0

5

10

15

20

25

To

tal N

itra

te D

ep

os

itio

n (k

g N

ha

-1y

-1)

Re

gio

na

l NO

xE

mis

sio

ns (

kg

N h

a-1

y-1

)

Year

Regional NOx (kg N ha-1 y-1) Deposition (kg N ha-1 y-1)

y = 0.3401x + 0.0561R² = 0.913

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0 5 10 15 20 25

Nit

rate

De

po

sit

ion

(k

g N

ha

-1y

-1)

Regional NOx Emissions (kg N ha-1 y-1)

Nitrate Deposition (wet NO3 + dry HNO3 + dry pNO3) Deposition Tracked Regional NOx Emissions

5

Connecticut Hill and ClaryvilleCASTNet sites

Implication: NOx sink is proportional to NOx emissions

Fraction of NOx deposited has not changed

Deposition rate = 34% of emission density

Source: U.S. EPA Clean Air Status and Trends Network data

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Annual 4th

Hig

hest

8-H

r O

3 (

ppbv)

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Annual 4th-Highest Daily Peak 8-Hour O3 DeclinedRate of Decline ~ 1 ppbv per Year

6Source: U.S. EPA Air Quality System (AQS) pre-generated data files

All NY State O3 monitoring sites (N = 22 – 38 sites per year, ≥ 30 since 1995)

NAAQS

Max O3 Values Declined Along with 75th – 95th Percentiles(Declining Toward ~40 – 50 ppbv)

7

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0

1.0

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6.0

7.0

Wh

ite

fac

e S

um

mit

O3

(pp

bv

)

NO

xE

mis

sio

ns (

millio

n m

etr

ic to

ns

)

Year

Regional NOx Emissions Annual 4th Max O3 95th Pct 90th Pct 75th Pct

Whiteface Mountain

O3 Trends are Due to Emission Changes (Not to Trends in Weather)

8

Atmospheric Environment 41 (2007) 7127–7137The effects of meteorology on ozone in urban areas and their use in assessing ozone trends

Louise Camalier, William Cox, Pat Dolwick

https://www.epa.gov/air-trends/trends-ozone-adjusted-weather-conditions

O3 Trends are Modulated by Atmospheric Chemistry (Discussed in Next Presentation)

9

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Em

iss

ion

s (

millio

n m

etr

ic to

ns

)

Year

NOX VOC

Regional NOx and VOC emissions declined together

Source: U.S. EPA trends inventory; Environment and Climate Change Canada

Large, Widespread SO2 Emission Reductions

10

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

SO

2E

mis

sio

ns (

millio

n m

etr

ic to

ns

)

Year

NY OH WV PA-NJ NE ON QU

83% reduction, 1995 - 2015

Ambient SO2 Declined with Regional and NY State SO2 Emission Reductions

11

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Mu

ltis

ite

Me

an

An

nu

al S

O2

(pp

bv

)

Ne

w Y

ork

SO

2E

mis

sio

n (m

illio

n m

etr

ic to

ns

)

Year

SO2 Emissions (Xing et al) SO2 Emissions (EPA) All-site SO2 9-Site SO2

r2 = 0.94

Multi-site Mean PM2.5 SO4 Tracked Regional (and NY) SO2 Emissions

12

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Me

an

PM

2.5

SO

4(m

g m

-3)

SO

2E

mis

sio

ns (

millio

n m

etr

ic to

ns

)

Year

SO2 Emissions SO4

Rochester, White Face, Pinnacle State Park, Queens CC

y = 0.654x + 0.514R2 = 0.970

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

PM

2.5

SO

4(m

g m

-3)

SO2 Emissions (million metric tons)

Intercept implies 0.5 mg m-3 SO4 from natural emissions or from outside the region

As a result of SO2 emission reductions and ambient PM SO4 decreases, aerosol composition and ion balance have changed

Organic Matter (OM) and Elemental Carbon (EC) are Now a Larger Fraction of PM2.5 Mass (OM = scaled OC)

13

Pinnacle State Park

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2

4

6

8

10

12

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Co

nc

en

trati

on

(m

g m

-3)

Year

Sulfate Ammonium Nitrate OM EC Soil Other

Consistent Ratio of Organic Carbon (OC) to Elemental Carbon (EC) Over Time and Space

14

0

.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

OC

(ug m

-3)

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8EC (ug m-3)

WHITEFACE BASE

ROCHESTER

QUEENS COLLEGE 2

PINNACLE STATE PARK

MANHATTAN

CONNECTICUT HILL

BUFFALO

BRONX

ALBANY

Excluding Bronx:

OC = 0.86 (± 0.04 ) + 1.66 (± 0.07) EC; p < 0.0001, r2 = 0.90

2005 – 2010

Annual averages

The exception is Bronx pre-2010

Consistent OC/EC suggests similar sources and processes affect all sites

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16

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

VO

C E

mis

sio

ns

(10

00

met

ric

ton

s)

EC a

nd

OC

Em

issi

on

s (1

00

0 m

etri

c to

ns)

Year

MOVES EC MOVES OC MOVES VOC

Mobile-Source PM and VOC Emissions Decreased

15

NY State on-road mobile source emissions determined from MOVES model

66% VOC decrease70% OC decrease72% EC decrease

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Mea

n A

nn

ual

OC

(mg

m-3

)

OC

Em

issi

on

s (1

00

0 m

etri

c to

ns)

Year

PM2.5 OC Pinnacle State Park Mean Annual OC

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Mea

n A

nn

ual

EC

(m

g m

-3)

EC E

mis

sio

ns

(10

00

met

ric

ton

s)

Year

PM2.5 EC Pinnacle State Park Mean Annual EC

PSP OC and EC Trends are (Sort of) Consistent with Mobile-Source PM2.5 OC and EC Emission Reductions

16

Source: EPA trends inventory highway vehicles plus non-highway vehicles PM2.5 emissions scaled by MOVES and SPECIATE ratios of OC and EC to PM2.5 mass

OC EC

Multiple Sources Contribute to PM2.5 OC and EC(Biomass Burning, Mobile, Secondary, Fossil Fuel, Crustal)

17

Receptor model source apportionment of data from Pinnacle State Park, 2001 – 2015(means of 1087 days)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

Fossil FuelCombustion

with SO2

Secondary(associated

with SO4 & O3)

BiomassBurning

Crustal Fossil FuelCombustionwithout SO2

Per

cen

t o

f O

C

Source

Principal Component Analysis Positive Matrix Factorization

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

Fossil FuelCombustion

with SO2

Secondary(associated

with SO4 & O3)

BiomassBurning

Crustal Fossil FuelCombustionwithout SO2

Per

cen

t o

f EC

Source

Principal Component Analysis Positive Matrix Factorization

OC EC

OC source contributions include secondary as well as primary components

Mobile

Mobile

Consistent PM Trends from Two Receptor Models

18

-.2

0

.2

.4

.6

.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Bio

ma

ss O

C (m

g m

-3)

PCA 2001-2015 PMF 2001-2015

-.5

-.25

0

.25

.5

.75

1

1.25

1.5

1.75

2

Su

lfa

te O

C (m

g m

-3)

PCA 2001-2015 PMF 2001-2015

At Pinnacle State Park (PSP), biomass burning OC and EC increased as SO4-associated OC decreased

PCA = Principal Component Analysis PMF = Positive Matrix Factorization

Biomass-burning OC OC associated with SO4 and O3

Biomass Burning PM Increases at PSP are Not Seen at Other Sites (Massiol et al., Atmos. Environ., 2019)

19

Diesel PM Contributions Decreased at Most Sites (Massiol et al., Atmos. Environ., 2019)

20

Questions?

21

Extra Slides

22

Comparison of NOx Emissions

23

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100

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600

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

NO

xEm

issi

on

s (1

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0 m

etri

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ns)

Year

MOVES Default On-road NEI Highway EPA Trends Highway Xing et al. On-road

Bronx EC Decline Compared with Ni Trends

24

0

.005

.01

.015

.02

.025

.03

.035

.04

Concentr

atio

n (mg m

-3)

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Year and Quarter

Vanadium

Nickel

Manganese

Copper

0

.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

Concentr

atio

n (mg m

-3)

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Year and Quarter

OC

EC

Seasonal Variations of PCA and PMF Factors at PSP

25-.2

0

.2

.4

.6

.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Bio

ma

ss O

C (m

g m

-3)

PCA Jan - Dec PMF Jan - Dec

-.1

0

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

.7

Fo

ssil

fue

l co

mb

ustion O

C (m

g m

-3)

PCA Jan - Dec PMF Jan - Dec-.2

0

.2

.4

.6

.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Su

lfa

te O

C (m

g m

-3)

PCA Jan - Dec PMF Jan - Dec

-.1

0

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

Cru

sta

l O

C (m

g m

-3)

PCA Jan - Dec PMF Jan - Dec

-.4

-.2

0

.2

.4

.6

.8

1

1.2

1.4

Non

-SO

2C

om

bu

stion O

C (m

g m

-3)

PCA Jan - Dec PMF Jan - Dec

Trends in OC Source Contributions at PSP

26

-.1

0

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

.7

.8

.9

Fo

ssil

fue

l co

mb

ustion O

C (m

g m

-3)

PCA 2001-2015 PMF 2001-2015-.1

0

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

.7

Cru

sta

l O

C (m

g m

-3)

PCA 2001-2015 PMF 2001-2015-.4

-.2

0

.2

.4

.6

.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Non

-SO

2C

om

bu

stion O

C (m

g m

-3)

PCA 2001-2015 PMF 2001-2015

Variation of OC Source Contributions with Morning Wind Direction

27

-.5

0

.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

OC

Cru

sta

l (u

g m

-3)

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Morning Wind Direction (degrees)

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

OC

No

n-S

O2

Co

mb

ustio

n (

ug

m-3

)

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Morning Wind Direction (degrees)

-.2

0

.2

.4

.6

OC

FF

Co

mb

ustio

n (

ug

m-3

)

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Morning Wind Direction (degrees)

-1.5

-.5

.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

OC

SO

4-O

3 (

ug

m-3

)

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Morning Wind Direction (degrees)

-1

1

3

5

7

9

OC

Bio

ma

ss (

ug

m-3

)

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Morning Wind Direction (degrees)

28

Source Differences in Mean OC/EC Ratios at PSP

PMF fixes the OC/EC ratio for each factor so there is no standard error of the mean

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Fossil Fuel Combustion (SO2) Sulfate Association Biomass Burning Crustal Non-SO2 Combustion

OC

/EC

Rat

io (

dim

ensi

on

less

)

Source

PCA OC/EC PMF OC/EC