IAFOE 2014 IAFOE 2014 May 19, 2014

Emerging Water Resources Modeling Technologies to Understand Climate Change Impacts on Various Sectors

and to Develop Adaptation Strategies

Balaji Narasimhan IIT Madras

IAFOE 2014 IAFOE 2014 May 19, 2014

Outline

Global water use Climate change Hydrologic cycle

Hydrologic modeling Integration of a suite of models

Emerging remote sensing based observation techniques

Uncertainties in hydrologic modeling Adaptation strategies Key challenges

IAFOE 2014 Source: http://www.unwater.org/

How much flow for ecological needs??

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Floods and Droughts

Root Zone

Shallow (unconfined)

Aquifer

Vadose (unsaturated)

Zone

Confining Layer

Deep (confined) Aquifer

Precipitation

Evaporation and Transpiration

Infiltration/plant uptake

Surface Runoff

Lateral Flow

Return Flow Revap from

shallow aquifer Percolation to

shallow aquifer

Recharge to deep aquifer

Flow out of watershed

Hydrologic Balance

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Hydrologic Response Unit (HRU)

Climate

Land Management

Land Use Soil

Slope

Hydrology Crop Growth

Nutrient Cycling etc.

Upland Processes

Routing Flood, Sediment, Nutrients

Channel Processes

River Basin Response

Hydrograph

Goal of watershed model

IAFOE 2014 Lumped Semi Distributed Fully Distributed

Empirical Deterministic

Lumped Single event

Physical Deterministic/Stochastic

Distributed Single / Continuous Event

Traditional Models Current state of the art

Class of watershed Models

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Measurement scale

Characteristic Time Scale

Mea

sure

men

t Sca

le

Pore scale

Core scale

Field scale

Watershed scale

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Model Scale

Source: http://amma-international.org/

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Integration of a suite of models

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Model Inputs Variables

Precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, solar radiation

Parameters Drainage Soils and Geology Landuse/Landcover Land / Water Management

100’s of parameters with at least 20 sensitive parameters

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Precipitation

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Topography

Space Shuttle Endeavour during the 11-day in February 2000

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Topography - LIDAR Traditional single lightwave LIDAR for

Topographic surveys

Source: www.dot.state.oh.us

Dual light wave bathymetric LIDAR systems

Source: http://www.fugro-pelagos.com/l

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Flood Modeling and Damage Assessment

Structure Inventory

Perspective view of 500 yr Flood event

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Streamflow

Almost always ground based measurements

Source: https://water.usgs.gov

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Soil Moisture - In-situ measurement

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Soil moisture – from satellite

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Hydrologic Parameters

Vegetation cover Remote Sensing

Soil Properties Hydraulic conductivity Bulk density Porosity Available water holding capacity

In-situ Measurement

+ Mapping soil units

from high resolution Satellite imagery

Parameter adjustment through model Calibration

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Uncertainties

http://www.meted.ucar.edu/

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http://www.meted.ucar.edu/

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Comparison of Simulated Stream Flow under Climate Change with Various Model Biases

Source: Eugene S. Takle of Iowa State University

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Figure SPM.8a,b Maps of CMIP5 multi-model mean results

All Figures © IPCC 2013

Source: AR5, WG1 report

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r

Risk Level with Current Adaptation

Potential for Additional Adaptation to Reduce Risk

Risk Level with High Adaptation

Risk-Level Very Low Med

Very High

4°C 2°C

Present

Long Term (2080-2100

Near Term (2030-2040

Risks for Low-Lying Coastal Areas

Loss of Livelihoods, Settlements, Infrastructure, Ecosystem Services, and Economic Stability

SMALL ISLANDS

Compounded Stress on Water Resources

Reduced Crop Productivity and Livelihood and Food Security

Vector- and Water- Borne Diseases

AFRICA

ASIA Increased Flood Damage to Infrastructure , Livelihoods, and Settlements

Heat-Related Human Mortality

Increased Drought- Related Water and Food Shortage

Increased Losses and Impacts from Extreme Heat Events

Increased Flood Losses and Impacts EUROPE

Increased Water Restrictions

Increased Flood Damage to Infrastructure and Settlements

Increased Risks to Coastal Infrastructure and Low-Lying Ecosystems

AUSTRALASIA Significant Change in Composition and Structure of Coral Reef Systems

Increased Risks from Wildfires

Heat-Related Human Mortality

Damages from River and Coastal Urban Floods

NORTH AMERICA

Reduced Water Availability and Increased Flooding and Landslides

Reduced Food Production and Quality

CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA

Vector-Borne Diseases

Reduced Fisheries Catch Potential at Low Latitudes

Increased Mass Coral Bleaching and Mortality

Coastal Inundation and Habitat Loss

THE OCEAN

Unprecedented Challenges, Especially from Rate of Change

Risks for Ecosystems

POLAR REGIONS Risks for Health and Well-Being

Impact of Climate Change Source: IPCC AR5 report

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www.climarice.org

Significant quantum of water is used in the cultivation of paddy

More than 65% of available water in Tamil Nadu used for

Paddy cultivation

Will there be enough water in the future to cultivate paddy?

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Krishna Basin Salient features

Length: 1,400 km Drainage area:

258,948 sq.km Population: 76.5

million Density:

287/sq.km

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Average rainfall intensity

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Adaptation strategies

Changing operation policies of existing reservoirs Power generation Irrigation Ecological flows

Construction of more reservoirs?? Construction of levees, height of levees Severe weather warning systems Low-impact development techniques for urban areas

Rainwater harvesting

Our food habits and lifestyle!!

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Key challenges

Ecological flows Space based techniques for retrieving channel cross

section across a river basin Channel cross sections undergo changes with time (LIDAR or

RADAR)

Soil moisture retrieval with vegetation cover and from deeper regions within the soil

Parallelizing the traditionally serial hydrologic models Improving spatial resolution and performing uncertainty analysis

take a large computational effort

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THANK YOU