Emerging Trends and Risk Hotspots Climate Change and Humanitarian Risk Hotspots Andrew Hartley

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Emerging Trends and Risk HotspotsClimate Change and Humanitarian Risk Hotspots

Andrew Hartley

Dr. Andrew Thow

Prof. Alyson Warhurst

November 2008Andrew Hartley

[email protected]


Maplecroft• Risk advisory to NGOs, governments and business• Work in partnership with our clients

Academic rigour and methodologies Building capacity based on best practice standards Address concerns and expectations of stakeholders Creativity in presentation and delivery

• A multi-cultural team of over 30 professionals Proven track record of projects with blue-chip corporations, UN

organisations and NGOs. Experience in sectors including humanitarian, retail, mining,

energy, banking, technology, logistics, transportation, ICTs Long-established relationships and advisory to key clients

• Risk, Responsibility and Reputation


Climate change and human vulnerability:Mapping emerging trends and risk hotspots for humanitarian actors

Dr Andrew Thow, Prof. Alyson Warhurst, and Mark deBlois

March 2008

In collaboration with CARE International, 7-9 Chemin de Balexert, 1219 Chatelaine, Geneva, Switzerland


Climate Change and Humanitarian Risk Hotspots

• Recent history of natural disasters

• How is the climate predicted to change?

• How do we assess risk?

• Assessing current humanitarian risk hotspots: a GIS approach

• Implications for humanitarian organisations

• What measures can be taken to mitigate against these risks?


Recent history of natural disasters• During 2005 and 2006, natural disasters killed

120,000 people- 271 million affected- $250 billion in economic losses

• Human and economic costs are increasing• 97% of disaster related deaths occur in developing

countries• Economic losses as % of GDP are heaviest in

lower income countries • Potential to have a significant impact on achieving

Millennium Development Goals • Knowledge still poor about contributing factors

especially where global risks conflate e.g. climate change; water, food and energy

security; health; education, financial inclusion

1984-1993 1994-20030

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Period

Bill

ions

of P

eopl

e

Number of people affected by natural disasters is increasing. (source: World Bank, 2006. Hazards of Nature, Risks to Development)


How do we assess risk?

HazardFlood

CycloneDrought

Vulnerability

Natural, human, social, financial, physical

RiskFlood risk hotspots

Cyclone risk hotspotsDrought risk hotspots

+ =

• Impact of a humanitarian disaster is related to the degree of exposure to a particular hazard, and

• Vulnerability of a population is determined by a range of social, economic, political and environmental factors (e.g. poverty, governance, conflict, urbanisation, resource security, climate change etc.)


Assessing Risk: A GIS Approach

Hazards

Group Theme GIS Layer Future scenarios Source(s) Year

Group 1 Hazards

Projected trends

Temperature trends Areas projected to temperature increase yes IPCC, WBGU, MPI Various

Precipitation trendsAreas projected to undergo change in precipitation

yes IPCC, WBGU, MPI 2080-2099

Current climate hazards

Floods

Distribution of flood mortality riskChange in extreme precipitation

qualitativeyes

IRICS (Columbia University), Dartmouth Flood Observatory , UNEP/GRID, EM-DAT, MPI. Hadley

20052071-2100

Tropical cyclones

Distribution of cyclone mortality riskDistribution of tropical storm tracks

qualitative


2005

Drought

Distribution of drought mortality riskChange in maximum dry periodsFuture dynamics of drought risk

qualitativeyesyes


20052071-21002041-2070


Temperature trends


Precipitation trends

• In a warmer climate, global average precipitation will increase by ~ 1-2% per degree of warming How is the climate predicted to change?

• Dotted areas denote >90% agreement between models

• Considerable changes are likely, but in many significant regions, models do not agree

Projected changes using A1B scenario for the period 2080-2099 relative to 1980-1999. (source IPCC after Tebaldi et al)


Current Climatic Hazards

Source: Dilley et al. Natural Disaster Hotspots: A global risk analysis. World Bank and Colombia University, 2005


Current Climatic Hazards

Global Warming Art, 2008. http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Tropical_Storm_Map_png


Assessing Risk: A GIS ApproachVulnerability

Group Theme GIS Layer Future scenarios Source(s) Year

Group 2 Vulnerability

Natural

Water availability Distribution of water stress qualitative WWDRII, IPCC AR4, FAO, Alcamo 2007

Agricultural suitability Agricultural suitability for combination of staple crops no FAO GAEZ, GLC 2000,

IPCC WGII 2000

Land degradation Distribution of soil degradation no ISRICI 2005

HumanPoverty

Distribution of mortality rate infants no CIESIN 2000

Distribution of child malnutrition no CIESIN 2002

Human development index no UNDP 2008

Health National index for HIV, TB, malaria, malnutrition no WHO, UNAIDS,

Maplecroft 2007

Social

Governance National index no World Bank, OCHA Global Focus Model 2007

Conflict risk National index Forward looking ICG, Uppsala University, Maplecroft 2007

Displacement National index no UNHCR, Maplecroft 2007

Financial GDP Sub national GDP no CIESIN, World Bank, CIA Fact book 2006

Physical

Road infrastructure Market accessibility no VMAP0 Digital Chart of the World 1997

Road coverage National index no IRF 2000-2005

Telecommunication National index noWorld Bank Development Indicators (WDI)

2007


Overall Human Vulnerability

Overall human vulnerability based on a combination of natural, human, social, financial and physical factors


Overall Human Vulnerability: Analysis and limitations


Sudden Onset Hazards: Flood Risk Hotspots

• Intensity and duration of droughts is likely to increase• Areas affected are also likely to expand


Sudden Onset Hazards : Cyclone Risk Hotspots

• Intensity and frequency of cyclones is likely to increase, due to rising sea surface temperatures

• Projections of future distributions of cyclones from GCMs are very uncertain


Slow Onset Hazards : Drought

• Intensity and duration of droughts is likely to increase• Spatial distribution of droughts is unlikely to change significantly in the

next 30 years


All Hazards Hotspots Combined

Map showing cumulative humanitarian risk hotspots for all three climate-related hazards studied – floods, cyclones and drought. Areas at risk for more than one type of hazard are considered to be of most concern for humanitarian actors.


Risk Hotspots and Population Density


Risk Hotspots and Population Density Change


Key findings and the road ahead


Key findings1. The spatial distribution of humanitarian risks from flooding, cyclones and drought will

remain largely the same in the future

2. Current areas of humanitarian focus remain critical

3. Sudden onset events are likely to be more frequent and have greater impact

4. Human Vulnerability - most important factor in determining the impact of future events

5. South East Africa and South and South East Asia are likely to suffer from an intensification of multiple hazards

6. Climate change impacts on humanitarian risks are likely to be further impacted by risk of conflict, particularly around areas of high water and food insecurity

7. Efforts should be focused on reducing human vulnerability and on improving the ability of communities to adapt to even small changes in climate as they occur

8. By understanding the patterns of different global risks we can get a more accurate understanding of current risk hot spots and emerging trends


Thank you...

For more information please visit

www.global-risks.com

Andrew [email protected]

... Or contact me directly

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Emerging Trends and Risk Hotspots Climate Change and Humanitarian Risk Hotspots Andrew Hartley