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Jackie Fenn, VP & Gartner Fellow EmeritusHung LeHong, Research VP

September 19, 2012

Emerging Technologies: What’s Hot for 2012 to 2013

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Emerging Technologies: What’s Hot for 2012 to 2013

Presenter:Jackie Fenn, VP & Gartner Fellow Emeritus

Hung LeHong, Research VP

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The Gartner Hype Cycle: What’s Hot for 2012 to 2013

Jackie Fenn, Research VP & Gartner Fellow EmeritusHung LeHong, Research VP

Executive Leadership and Innovation September 19th, 2012

© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.<docname>_<date>_<author>

Agenda

• Introduction to Hype Cycles• Key Trends for 2012 to 2013• Raising the Stakes: Strategic

Business Capabilities• Navigating Gartner’s Planning Tools

© 2009 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.<docname>_<date>_<author>

First-generation products, high price, lots of customization needed

time

Slope of EnlightenmentTrough of

DisillusionmentPeak of Inflated

ExpectationsTechnology

TriggerPlateau of

Productivity

expectations

The Hype Cycle of Innovation

Mass media hype begins

Negative press begins

Third-generation products, out of the box, product suites

High-growth adoption phase starts: 20 to 30 percent adoption

Methodologies and best practices developing

Second-generation products, some services

Gartner’s Hype Cycle Special Report 2012• 92 Hype Cycles (technologies, applications, management, industries,

regional)

• Over 1900 individual technology profiles (including definition, business impact, maturity and example vendors for each)

• New Hype Cycles this year: - Big Data- Internet of Things- In-Memory Computing- Cloud Service Brokerage- Contact Center Infrastructure- Human Capital Management Software- Strategic Business Capabilities- The Future of Money- Operational Technology Impact- Green IT and Sustainability in China

• Hype Cycle landing page - http://www.gartner.com/technology/research/hype-cycles/

Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle 2012

Technology Trigger

Peak ofInflated

Expectations

Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of

Productivity

time

expectations

Plateau will be reached in:less than 2 years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years more than 10 years

obsoletebefore plateau

As of July 2012

Human AugmentationQuantum Computing

3D BioprintingVolumetric and Holographic Displays

Automatic Content Recognition

Hybrid Cloud Computing

Autonomous VehiclesMobile Robots

Internet of ThingsNatural-Language Question Answering

Silicon Anode BatteriesSpeech-to-Speech Translation

Crowdsourcing

GamificationBig Data

HTML5

Wireless Power BYODComplex-Event ProcessingSocial Analytics

Private Cloud Computing

Augmented RealityIn-Memory Database Management Systems

Application Stores

Activity StreamsNFC PaymentInternet

TV Audio Mining/Speech AnalyticsNFC Cloud Computing

Machine-to-Machine Communication ServicesMesh Networks: SensorGesture Control

Mobile OTA PaymentMedia Tablets

3D Scanners

ConsumerizationBiometric Authentication Methods

Idea ManagementConsumer Telematics

Speech RecognitionPredictive Analytics

3D Printing

In-Memory Analytics

Hosted Virtual Desktops

Text AnalyticsHome Health Monitoring

Virtual Worlds

Technology Trend —Bring Your Own Everything

• Vision: Any Device, Anytime, Anywhere• Tipping Point Technologies: HTML5, Hosted

Virtual Desktop, Silicon Anode Batteries

Technology Trend —Smarter Things

• Vision: An internet of everything• Tipping point technologies: machine-to-

machine communication, mesh networks: sensors, big data, activity streams

Smart Pill & Bottle

Internet of “Dumb” Things?

Technology Trend —Big Data at Small Prices

• Vision: Massive data, massive insight, massive value – all at mini prices

• Tipping Point Technologies: Cloud computing, Big Data, In-memory DBMS,

Source: Gartner and McKinsey Global Institute

Technology Trend —The Human Way To Interact With Technology

• Vision: “HAL/Siri, please get me last week’s sales”

• Tipping Point Technologies: Natural-language question answering, Near-Field Communication

Sunnybrook Hospital, TorontoSamsung TecTiles

Other Technology Trends

3D Printing for the MassesSource: Cubify

Future of Payment

Sources: NFC and Square

The Hype Cycle of Strategic Business Capabilities, 2012

Technology Trigger

Peak ofInflated

ExpectationsTrough of

Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity

time

expectations

Plateau will be reached in:less than 2 years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years more than 10 years

obsoletebefore plateau

As of July 2012Augmented-Human Staffing

Managementless OrganizationTalent Science

Exploiting Sensor Grids

Data Science ManagementRobostaffing

NeurobusinessAdditive Manufacturing

Customer Experience ManagementCloud Business

E-Discovery

Business AnalyticsDesign Thinking

Sustainability Management

Innovation Management

Business Process Management, the DisciplineMass

Collaboration

Risk Management/GRCM-Commerce

Business Model Innovation

Mass CustomizationTraceability and Provenance

Supply Chain ManagementProduct Cost and Life Cycle Management

BPO

Location Intelligence

Micrometered Revenue Models

Emerging Technologies Priority Matrix 2012benefit years to mainstream adoption

less than 2 years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years more than 10 years

transformational Business Model Innovation

Additive Manufacturing

Business Process Management, the Discipline

ManagementlessOrganization

Sustainability Management

Talent Science

high BPO

Location Intelligence

Product Cost and Life Cycle Management

Supply Chain Management

Business Analytics

Cloud Business

Mass Collaboration

M-Commerce

Micrometered Revenue Models

Risk Management/GRC

Traceability and Provenance

Customer Experience Management

Data Science Management

Design Thinking

E-Discovery

Exploiting Sensor Grids

Neurobusiness

Robostaffing

moderate Innovation Management Augmented-Human Staffing

Mass Customization

My Hype Cycle Toolkit• Database of all the technologies from all of the hype cycles• Search, sort and filter• Create custom hype cycle

Related Gartner Models and Tools

IT Market Clock for Client Computing, 2011

• Use Hype Cycles and Priority Matrices for “hunting” technology opportunities.

• Use IT Market Clocks for “farming” IT resources.

• Use Innovation Insights for deep dives into emerging technologies.

• Use Cool Vendor reports for inspiration and ideas.

• Use Magic Quadrants and MarketScopes for decisions about vendor selection.

Using the Hype Cycle for your Technology Portfolio

Scan relevant hype cycles as part of your regular technology tracking activities.

Educate business and IT audiences about the peaks and troughs in expectations that they can expect as the technologies mature.

Integrate the toolkit into your technology planning process. Generate a shortlist of technologies for discussion in IT portfolio and strategic planning meetings.

Use the toolkit to drive creativity at IT or management off-sites: Select early-stage technologies and ask "Could this technology bring us a competitive advantage?"

Use the toolkit as a risk reduction tool. Check through later-stage technologies to ensure that you are not missing out on key technologies entering maturity.

Keep the toolkit available as a database for technology research.

Create your own Hype Cycle of technologies that you are adopting or evaluating.

Related Gartner Research Gartner's Hype Cycle Special Report for 2012

Jackie Fenn (G00233944) Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2012

Jackie Fenn, Hung LeHong (G00233931) Toolkit: My Hype Cycle, 2012

Jackie Fenn (G00233937) Trends That Matter: Top Trends and Their Business Impact

Jackie Fenn (G00213378) The STREET Process for Emerging Technology and Innovation

AdoptionJackie Fenn (G00174060)

Mastering the Hype Cycle:How to Choose the Right Innovationat the Right TimeJackie Fenn and Mark Raskino

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