Emerging technological options to improve air quality and public health in urban areas

Josh Miller, ICCT

ESCAP Regional Expert Group Meeting27-29 November 2013Incheon, Republic of Korea

19.3

14.813.7

5.4

3.8 3.6 3.11.7 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8

--

4

8

12

16

20

24

Chi

na

U.S

.

EU

Japa

n

Bra

zil

Indi

a

Rus

sia

Can

ada

Sou

th K

orea

Tha

iland

Indo

nesi

a

Aus

tral

ia

Mex

ico

Arg

entin

a

Turk

ey

Top

15

veh

icle

mar

kets

(20

12 s

ales

*)

1

The International Council on Clean Transportation

The mission of ICCT is to dramatically improve the environmental performance and efficiency of cars, trucks, buses and transportation systems in order to protect and improve public health, the environment, and quality of life.

  Non-profit research organization  Air pollution and climate impacts  Regulations and fiscal incentives

for clean vehicles and fuels  Road vehicles, aviation, and

marine  National and local policies

  Council of regulators in largest markets

*million light- and heavy-duty vehicles (Ward sales data)

2

Carbon monoxide(CO)

Ozone(VOC + NOx)

Haze

Particles (PM10/PM2.5) NOx, SOx, VOC, ammonia

Toxics - Diesel particles- Benzene- Heavy metals

Greenhouse Gases

- CO2, Methane, Black Carbon, N2O, HFC

Impacts of motor vehicle emissions

Source: Michael Walsh

3

  Diesel particulate matter (PM) is  Tiny

  Dangerous

  Mostly black carbon (BC)

Characteristics of diesel soot

4

Diesel exhaust harmful to health and climate

  Globally, diesel vehicles produce 90 percent of PM and 95 percent of BC emissions (ICCT Health Roadmap)

  One kg of black carbon causes as much climate impact in the near term as 3,200 kg of carbon dioxide (Forster, et al.)

  BC is the second largest contributor to climate warming from human activities (Bond, et al.)

Vehicle Non-CO2 GHG emissions (2000-2030)

Calculated using GWP-20. Non-CO2 GHGs include BC, CH4, N2O, OC, SO2

theicct.org/global-health-roadmap

5

  “From our measurements, we conclude that exposure to traffic related PM is up to an order of magnitude higher for cyclists than for car passengers.” – Int Panis, et al. (2010)

  Increased breathing frequency and volume due to physical exertion cause more PM to be inhaled

  PM more likely to remain in lungs due to deeper breaths  Slower travel speeds can prolong exposure

Link air quality and activity policies

Photo credit: Tom Krymkowski (left) Reuters (right)

6

Emerging technologies

7

Diesel particulate filters virtually eliminate ultrafines

8

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

Uncontrolled Euro 1/I Euro 2/II Euro 3/III Euro 4/IV Euro 5/V Euro 6/VI

Ave

rag

e lif

etim

e em

issi

on

fact

or

(gra

ms

PM

2.5

/km

)

Diesel: 2,000 ppm 500 ppm 350 ppm 50 ppm 10 ppm

-99%

-99%

HHDT LDV

Fuel Sulfur Level

-25%

-38%

-22%

-77%

-90%

-68%

-20%-33% -23%

-95%

Progressively stringent tailpipe emission and fuel standards are effective at reducing emissions to near-zero levels

Source: ICCT Health Roadmap (2013)

SCR DPFDPFDOC

Fundamentals of controlling air pollutant emissions from motor vehicles

New vehicle standards

Technology neutral (but technology-forcing…) emissions standards for new vehicles.

Must consider emissions from all mobile sources: on-road, off-road, marine, locomotives, aviation, construction…

Limit values only as good as:- Compliance and enforcement- Real-world performance

Fuel quality standards

High fuel quality (especially low sulfur levels) enables advanced emission control technologies to be deployed in the fleet.

Fuel quality compliance programs critical to prevent damage to engines and prevent misfueling

In-use vehicle emission control

Clean up legacy vehicles on the roads

Comprehensive program includes:- Catching gross-emitters (I/M, remote sensing, maintenance, etc.)- Cleaner fuels- Scrappage/replacement programs- Retrofit programs- Complementary strategies (low emission zones, driver training, etc.)

Not shown but also important: transportation demand management, modal shift, traffic optimization, and more

“Systems Approach”

theicct.org/best-practices-emission-control-in-use-hdvs

theicct.org/global-health-roadmap

10

110,000

100,000

90,000

80,000

70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0

Ear

ly d

eath

s

Best Practice China & India

Non-EU Europe, Russia, &

Latin America Other Countries

200

0

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

30

200

0

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

30

200

0

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

30

200

0

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

30

-7%

-79%

-74%

-80%

Baseline Accelerated (%) Data labels indicate percent reduction from Baseline in 2030

National vehicle emission control programs

Source: ICCT Health Roadmap (2013)

Annual premature mortality by region, 2000–2030

New standards could avoid 210,000 early deaths in 2030 and 25 million of years of life through 2030.

Global health impacts from urban vehicle particle emissions to increase 150% by 2030 unless new vehicle and fuel standards are adopted.

11

  National emission-based vehicle labeling programs  Minimum standards allow formulation of LEZ criteria  Standardized certification and labeling enable enforcement

  Give local governments authority to control emissions  Negotiate fuel-quality improvements with local refineries  Early emission standards for new vehicles  Regulate and test in-use vehicles  Fiscal measures promote clean vehicles and fuels

  Establish national fuel quality standards  Augment local options to retrofit and replace in-use, require

technologies on new vehicles.  Emission reduction technology verification

  Web-accessible and searchable database  Enable development of effective local retrofit programs

National actions enable cities to move ahead

Source: Wagner and Rutherford (2013)

12

Local actions

13

Policy type Region Magnitude Result

Tax differentials at the pump

Hong Kong   HK$ 0.89/L (0.11 USD/L) for 50-ppm

  HK$ 0.56/L (0.07 USD/L) for 10-ppm

500-ppm to 50-ppm (2000) to 10-ppm (2008)

Tax incentive for refiners

Japan (national)

  7% deduction in corporate tax

OR  30% accelerated

depreciation on equipment purchase

5,000-ppm to 2,000-ppm (1992) to500-ppm (1997)

Direct government subsidy to refiners

Tokyo 10 yen/L (0.1 USD/L) 500-ppm to 50-ppm (2003) to 10-ppm (2005)

Fiscal incentives enable switch to low-sulfur fuel

Source: He (2013)

14

  Short commutes in cities and relatively low speeds  Government support:  Lower tariffs for off-peak battery charging  No import duties on EV components such as batteries and electric motors  VAT (Value Added Tax) exemption for EV manufacturing  Still running in Kathmandu after 13 years

An early model for electric three-wheelers

Source: Baral (2000)

Source: rickshawrising.com

15

  China Development Bank finances 5-year, low-interest loan  National and local subsidies totalling 120,000 RMB

  Monthly fuel savings exceed loan payment, with profit

Combined financial incentives promote e-taxis

BYD’s “profitable operational scheme”

Source: BYD (2012)

BYD e6 – Electric Taxi in Shenzhen, China

16

- 100 200 300 400 500

Motorcycle

Urban public bus

Taxi

Private/business light-duty vehicle

Daily vehicle-km traveled

Representative daily vehicle travel in ChinaActual EV range Low High

  New EVs meet range requirements for most urban vehicles  Fuel savings from efficiency increase with vehicle travel

  Overnight charging minimizes impacts on electricity grid

Match technology to vehicle operating conditions

VKT/vehicle data: Huo et al. (2012)EV range data: WECE (2013)

17

  Create a business case with financial incentives  Rebates or tax credits  Low-interest financing  Time-of-use electricity pricing  Discounted tolls and parking  Discounted electricity rates

  Complement with non-financial incentives  Low emission zones  Preferential parking spaces  Expedite permitting of charging units

  Encourage car-sharing schemes  Limit upfront cost to consumers  Preserve mobility  Complement public transit, bicycling, walking

  Pilot EV fleets  Ensure effectiveness  Set the stage for wider uptake

Local policies to promote electric vehicles

Source: EVI (2013)

18

Benefits of EVs depend on electricity mix

Source: Pike (2012)

Well-to-Wheel CO2 from a Nissan Leaf compared to efficient gasoline vehicles

  Consider interrelated issues  Emission controls & fuel quality, electricity mix & EVs, air quality &

sustainable activity, “climate” & “health” policies

  National emission reduction strategies  New vehicle emission limits and fuel quality critical to sustained

emission reductions  Efficiency standards and fiscal policies have proven success and

remaining potential

  Local emission reduction strategies  Retrofit and replacement accelerates health benefits of standards  Low emission zones provide regulatory backstop and support fleet

renewal, EV adoption  EV benefits augmented with clean electricity, off-peak charging,

low-interest financing, right-of-way benefits, high vehicle utilization (taxis, buses, carsharing)

Conclusions

19

20

Thank you. For more information:

WWW.THEICCT.ORG© INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION, 2013

Policy measures to finance the transition to lower sulfur motor fuelsAUTHOR: Hui HeDATE: 14 June 2013KEYWORDS: Fuel quality, ultra-low sulfur fuels, vehicle emissions, emission control technologies

WORKING PAPER 2013-

Background and objective

Shifting to ultra low sulfur motor fuels (diesel and gasoline with sulfur content not exceeding 0.001% or 10 parts per million [ppm]) has tremendous environmental and health benefits. Using ultra low sulfur fuel directly reduces vehicle exhaust emissions, especially sulfur dioxide and sulfate particulate matter emitted from combustion. More importantly, it also ensures that advanced after-treatment technologies such as diesel particulate filters and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) absorbers will function well and lead to significant reduction in vehicular emissions of particulate matter (PM) and NOx. Existing and new catalytically equipped gasoline fueled vehicles will have lower emissions if lower sulfur fuels replace higher sulfur fuels. As a result, all the countries and regions in the world that have adopted the strictest vehicle emissions standards (e.g. Euro 5/V or above or US Tier 2 standards for light-duty vehicles and US model year 2010 standards for heavy-duty vehicles) also require the concurrent use of ultra low sulfur fuels in order to enable well-functioning and durable emissions control technologies.

Ultra low sulfur fuels (ULSFs) are more expensive for refineries to produce than higher sulfur fuels primarily because of the required investment in the equipment and processes to remove naturally occurring sulfur from petroleum, in addition to increased operating costs. Therefore, many countries and regions have deployed a variety of policies to incentivize an accelerated transition to ULSFs.

This working paper is intended to provide an overview of successful international experiences related to financing

motor fuel desulfurization by introducing fiscal and other policy measures with examples from five countries or regions in Europe, North America and Asia. The policies showcased include tax differentials at the pump, tax incentives or subsidies for refiners, and regulatory mandates with flexibility. The following sections describe the policy packages implemented in Japan, Hong Kong, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the United States. The paper concludes with a set of lessons learned from the international experiences to date.

Japan

Nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM) pollution had become a national concern in the 1980s in Japan. In 1989, the national government established short- and long-term emission standards to reduce NOx and PM emissions from diesel engines1. The emission limits were set in parallel with a requirement to use lower sulfur content diesel fuel (less than 0.05% or 500-ppm) to ensure that the advanced exhaust after-treatment system (exhaust gas recirculation and oxidation catalyst) would function well. The government instituted direct tax incentives in two phases, from 1990-1992 and from 1993-1997, to subsidize refinery investments for reducing sulfur in diesel fuel first to below 2,000 ppm and then further to 500-ppm. Refineries had a choice of a 7 percent

1� Petroleum Association of Japan. 2011. Petroleum Industry in Japan 2011, page 49. Accessed on July 3, 2012. http://www.paj.gr.jp/english/industry/.

AUTHOR Hui He is a policy analyst with the ICCT, and co-lead for the ICCT’s China region.

www.theicct.org

communications@theicct.org

BEIJING | BERLIN | BRUSSELS | SAN FRANCISCO | WASHINGTON

THE IMPACT OF STRINGENT FUEL AND VEHICLE STANDARDS ON PREMATURE MORTALITY AND EMISSIONSICCT’S GLOBAL TRANSPORTATION HEALTH AND CLIMATE ROADMAP SERIES

AUTHORS: Sarah Chambliss, Josh Miller, Cristiano Façanha, Ray Minjares, Kate Blumberg

OVERVIEW OF INDIA’S VEHICLE EMISSIONS CONTROL PROGRAM

PAST SUCCESSES AND FUTURE PROSPECTS

Gaurav Bansal and Anup Bandivadekar

www.theicct.org

communications@theicct.org

BEIJING | BERLIN | BRUSSELS | SAN FRANCISCO | WASHINGTON

BRIEFING

Electric Vehicle Grid Integration in the U.S., Europe, and China

SEPTEMBER 2013

B E I J I N G | B E R L I N | B R U S S E L S | SA N F R A N C I S CO | WA S H I N GTO N

The ICCT and the Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP) jointly commissioned MJ Bradley & Associates to write a report on challenges and opportunities in integrating electric vehicles (EV) into the electrical grid in several world regions. This briefing paper summarizes their findings. The full report is available at <http://www.theicct.org/electric-vehicle-grid-integration-us-europe-and-china>.

OVERVIEW

Governments around the world are promoting electric vehicle deployment as part of their clean transportation and climate mitigation strategies. The U.S. has a target of 1 million EVs by 2015 and provides generous financial incentives for EV purchases and installation of EV charging equipment, while individual states have additional incentives. The EU supports EV deployment broadly through incentives in two major directives. Denmark, France, and Germany, which were examined in detail in this report, each have ambitious targets for EV adoption by 2020, supported by various financial incentives. China targets half a million EVs by 2015 and 5 million EVs by 2020, and provides subsidies and various financial and other incentives depending on region and city.

New EV models come online each year. At the time the report was written, 17 battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle models were available on the market, ranging in size from two-seaters to Toyota’s RAV4 SUV. Still, none of these models are perfect replacements for conventional vehicles: the highest EV range potential (~ 200 miles for Tesla’s Model S) is half that of a typical conventional vehicle, refueling time is far longer (from around 30 minutes to over 20 hours depending on the charging capacity), and EVs are still significantly more expensive.

The reason governments support EV deployment despite the above-mentioned drawbacks is that EVs offer attractive potential benefits. EVs have no tailpipe emissions, which immediately reduces harmful pollution in cities. And EVs have the

www.theicct.org

Survey of Best Practices in Emission Control of In-Use Heavy-Duty Diesel VehiclesVANCE WAGNER, DAN RUTHERFORD

AUGUST 2013

Urban off-cycle NOx emissions from Euro IV/V trucks and buses

Problems and solutions for Europe and developing countries

www.theicct.org

White Paper Number 18 | March 2012

Dana Lowell and Fanta Kamakaté

THE NEW PASSENGER CAR FLEET IN CHINA, 2010

Technology Assessment and International Comparisons

Fuel consumption L/100km (� China; EU)

Mini

5.0

6.4

Small

6.7

5.8

Lower Medium

7.4

6.6

Medium

8.5

7.6

Large

9

8.6

SUV

9 8.9

Josh Miller | josh@theicct.org | theicct.org

21

Baral, Anil (2000). The Electric Vehicle Industry in Nepal.Bond, T. C., et al. (2013). Bounding the Role of Black Carbon in the Climate System: A Scientific Assessment.” Journal of

Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 118, no. 11 (June 16): 5380–5552. BYD (2012). BYD launches “Zero vehicle purchase price, Zero costs, Zero emissions” city electric public

transport solution.http://bydcompany.wordpress.com/2012/11/06/byd-electric-vehicles-zero-vehicle-purchase-price-zero-costs-zero-emissions-city-electric-public-transport-solution/

Chambliss, S., Miller, J., Façanha, C., Minjares, R., & Blumberg, K. (2013). The Impact of Stringent Fuel and Vehicle Standards on Premature Mortality and Emissions, 1–96. theicct.org/global-health-roadmap

EVI & IEA (2013). Global EV Outlook: Understanding the Electric Vehicle Landscape to 2020. IEA.org/Topics/Transport/ElectricVehiclesInitiative

Façanha, C., K. Blumberg, and J. Miller (2012). Global Transportation Energy and Climate Roadmap. International Council on Clean Transportation. November. Available online at http://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT%20Roadmap%20 Energy%20Report.pdf

Forster, P., et al. (2007). “Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forc- ing.” Chapter 2 in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis—Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Pp. 129–234. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Available online at http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter2.pdf

He, Hui (2013). Policy measures to finance the transition to lower sulfur motor fuels. The ICCT. http://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT_LSF-fiscalpolicy_June2013.pdf

Huo, et al. (2011). Vehicle-use intensity in China: Current status and future trend. Energy Policy.Int Panis, L., de Geus, B., Vandenbulcke, G., Willems, H., Degraeuwe, B., Bleux, N., et al. (2010). Exposure to particulate

matter in traffic: A comparison of cyclists and car passengers. Atmospheric Environment, 44(19), 2263–2270. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.04.028

Pike, E. (2012). Calculating Electric Drive Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 1–24. Retrieved from http://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT_CalculatingEdriveGHG_082012.pdf

Shuguang Ji, Christopher R. Cherry, Matthew J. Bechle, Ye Wu, and Julian D. Marshall (2012). Electric Vehicles in China: Emissions and Health Impacts. Environmental Science & Technology. 46 (4) 2018-2024. http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es202347q

Wagner, V., and D. Rutherford (2013). Best practices in emission control of in-use heavy-duty vehicles. The ICCT. http://www.theicct.org/best-practices-emission-control-in-use-hdvs

WECE (2013). http://www.worldevcities.org/cities/shenzhen#projects

References