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1
February 10th and 11th 2016
EMERGING MARKETS
Xavier HOVASSE Head of Emerging Markets
Fund Manager
2
Emerging Markets at Carmignac: A Combined Expertise
Xavier HOVASSE
Head of team, Fund Manager LATAM specialist
David PARK
Fund Manager Asia specialist
Michel WISKIRSKI
Analyst EMEA specialist
Charles ZERAH
Fund Manager Fixed Income
Haiyan LI-LABBÉ
Fund Manager China specialist
EMERGING MARKETS EXPERTISE (€5.0 bn AUM)
Joseph MOUAWAD
EM FI & Currencies Analyst
Frédéric LEROUX
Global Fund Manager Head of Cross Asset Macro-economy Derivative Strategies
Obe EJIKEME
Quantitative Equity Analyst
Laurent CHEBANIER
Country Risk Analyst
Julien CHERON
Fund Manager Quantitative Analyst
CROSS ASSET TEAM COMMODITY EXPERTISE
Michael HULME Head of Commodities
Fund Manager
Simon LOVAT Analyst
Commodities
SECTOR / COUNTRY EXPERTISE
Matthew WILLIAMS Analyst Financials
Antoine COLONNA Analyst Consumption
Tim JAKSLAND Analyst Innovation
Vincent STEENMAN Analyst Industry
3
Carmignac’s Emerging Markets Fund Range
Source: Carmignac, 31/12/2015
CARMIGNAC PORTFOLIO EMERGING PATRIMOINE
CARMIGNAC EMERGENTS
CARMIGNAC PORTFOLIO EMERGING DISCOVERY
EMERGING MARKETS DIVERSIFIED FUND
EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY FUNDS
AUM: €29.74 million
CARMIGNAC PORTFOLIO CHINA
Flagship Emerging markets equity fund launched in 1997
A large and mid caps Fund
AUM: €1 155.39 million
AUM: €274.80 million
AUM: €685.22 million
4
Fund Performance Reference Indicator
Carmignac Emergents +5.15% -5.22% 1
Carmignac Portfolio Emerging Discovery +2.99% +0.19% 2
Carmignac Portfolio Emerging Patrimoine +0.17% -5.09% 3
Carmignac Portfolio China +6.48% +2.68% 4
1. MSCI Emerging Markets NR (EUR) 2. 50% MSCI EM Mid Cap NR (EUR) + 50% MSCI EM Small Cap NR (EUR) 3. 50% MSCI EM NR (EUR) + 50% JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified Composite Unhedged (EUR) 4. MSCI China Index (USD) net dividends reinvested and converted into EUR
Annual Performance and Contribution
2015
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Source: Carmignac, 31/12/2015
5
Long-term Positioning
Both funds are 1st quartile for the 5-year AND since launch performances.
Both funds have 4 stars.
1st Ann. Ret. Percentile Launch date Ann. Ret. Percentile
Carmignac Emergents 1,47 15 Feb-97 9,13 2
Carmignac Pf Emerging Discovery 1,32 17 Dec-07 2,84 13
Annualised return & Percentiles as
of December, 31st 2015
5 Years Since Launch
1st quartile
4th quartile
1st quartile
4th quartile
1st quartile
4th quartile
5-year return Quartile in Morningstar category
5-year volatility Quartile in Morningstar category
5-year Sharpe Ratio Quartile in Morningstar category
CE
CED
MSCI EM
Category Average
CE & CED in the 1st quartile for the performance over 5 years.
CE & CED are in the 1st quartile for the volatility over 5 years.
CE & CED are in the 1st quartile for the Sharpe ratio over 5 years.
CE
CED
CE CED
MSCI EM MSCI EM
Category Average
Category Average
Source: Carmignac, Morningstar Direct. © 2015 Morningstar, Inc - All rights reserved. Monthly returns in Euro, net of fees, as of December, 31st 2015. Peer group composed of all shares of all funds in the Global Emerging Markets Equity Morningstar category. Risk-free rate used for Sharpe
ratio calculation: Eonia Capitalised. Share class used for Carmignac Emergents: FR0010149302 ((1) Reference indicator: MSCI EM). Share class used for Carmignac Portfolio Emerging Discovery: LU0336083810 ((2) Reference indicator: 50% MSCI EM SmallCap + 50% MSCI EM MidCap).
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Low volatility
High volatility
6
5-year Performance in Few Figures
5-year data
as of December 31st 2015Ann. Return Volatility
Sharpe Ratio
(arith)
Information
Ratio (arith)
Sortino
Ratio (arith)
Up Capture
Ratio
Down
Capture
Ratio
Overall
Capture
Ratio
Bear BetaAverage
Loss
Carmignac Emergents 1,47 13,21 0,09 0,37 0,13 82,90 73,61 1,13 0,94 -2,88
Carmignac Pf Emerging Discovery 1,32 11,42 0,09 0,30 0,13 72,21 64,18 1,13 0,79 -2,48
MSCI EM NR EUR -0,70 14,89 -0,06 — -0,09 100 100 1 1 -3,30
Category Average -1,27 14,37 -0,10 -0,28 -0,15 92,17 95,38 0,97 1,06 -3,26
Higher return & lower volatility vs. MSCI EM and the category average…
… leading to superior risk-adjusted returns: • Higher Sharpe ratio • Higher Information ratio • Higher Sortino ratio
The Sortino Ratio is similar to Sharpe Ratio except it uses downside risk (Downside Deviation) in the denominator. Since upside variability is not necessarily a bad thing, Sortino ratio is sometimes more preferable than Sharpe ratio.
Asymmetric up/down capture ratio vs. the MSCI EM. Downside Capture Ratio measures manager's performance in down markets. A down-market is defined as those months in which MSCI EM is less than 0. In essence, it tells you what percentage of the down-market was captured by the manager. For example, if the ratio is 83%, the manager has captured 83% of the down-market and therefore outperformed the market on the downside.
Lower bear beta and lower average loss compared to the MSCI EM and category average. Beta is a measure of systematic risk with respect to a benchmark. Systematic risk is the tendency of the value of the fund and the value of benchmark to move together. Bear Beta is a measure of the sensitivity of a fund’s return to negative changes in its benchmark’s return. Bear beta < 1 is good
Source: Carmignac, Morningstar Direct. © 2015 Morningstar, Inc - All rights reserved. Monthly returns in Euro, net of fees, as of December, 31st 2015. Peer group composed of all shares of all funds in the Global Emerging Markets Equity Morningstar category. Risk-free rate used: Eonia
Capitalised. Share class used for Carmignac Emergents: FR0010149302. Share class used for Carmignac Portfolio Emerging Discovery: LU0336083810.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
7
Our Compass for navigating Emerging Markets?
8
A Simple Approach
UNDERPENETRATION STRONG FCF MACRO + +
COUNTRIES SECTORS STOCKS
The Fund looks for strong macro fundamentals
(growth outlook, current account, currency,
inflation)
Companies with a strong FCF profile i.e capital light
business that can self finance their growth
Underpenetrated sectors with long term growth
9
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Brazilian Market Collapse
Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index (USD)
-77%
Source: Carmignac, Bloomberg, 27/01/2015
10
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
Politics Increase Cost of Capital
Brazil 5Y credit spread (USD)
Source: Bloomberg, 28/01/2016
Bps
11
South Africa: Deteriorating Fundamentals
Source: Bloomberg 15/01/2016
150
200
250
300
350
400
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
South Africa 5Y CDS (USD)
USD/ZAR
Bps
12
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Mexico, one of our main convictions
Source: Carmignac, Bloomberg, CICC, Emerging Advisors Group, International Monetary Fund, 31/12/2015
BANORTE
Manufactured Exports % GDP
Oil Exports % GDP
FIBRA TERRAFINA
BANCO SANTANDER MEXICO Stocks Stocks
FIBRA MACQUARIE
Private debt to GDP
30%
4% 0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
175%
200%
Mexico India Russia Brazil China
13
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Mexico, the good student of Latin America
Source: Carmignac , Bloomberg, 28/01/2016
LABOR MARKET & EDUCATION
REFORMS
TAX REFORM
ENERGY REFORM
FINANCIAL & TELECOM REFORMS
WAL-MART DE MEXICO
FEMSA
BACHOCO
GRUPO LALA
Stocks
Retail sales (YoY %)
14
India: Tangible Signs of Improvement
Source: Bloomberg, Oct 2015
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
India Current Account
15
Fiscal discipline: FY16 target deficit of 3.9% of GDP
Corporate taxes will be lowered to 25% from current 30%.
Good & Services Tax implementation
Investments towards infra, such as energy, industrial and minerals and transport
* Target for WPI then CPI Source: Carmignac, Bloomberg, CEIC, 31/12/2015
3%
5%
7%
9%
11%
13%
15%
17%
Inflation target* Inflation, CPI
Policy rate
The objectives of the Indian fiscal policy 08/02/2015
India: New Monetary Policy Governance
16
LATAM EMEA
1/In a Uncertain and Heterogeneous Environment: Select the Right Countries
14.0 MEXICO
1.7 BRAZIL
23.7
INDIA
2.1
TURKEY
2.3
INDONESIA
5.5 SOUTH AFRICA
1.2 POLAND
8.0 ISRAEL
1.7 PHILIPPINES 1.1
THAILAND
ASIA
SOUTH KOREA 7.0
9.7 TAIWAN
63% 17% 20%
Geographic exposure of Carmignac Emergents (%, rebased)
Source: Carmignac, 29/01/2016
1.8
ARGENTINA
3.1 UNITED ARAB
EMIRATES
CHINA
17.1
17
TOTAL TRADITIONAL MARKETS
TOTAL FRONTIER MARKETS
1/In a Uncertain and Heterogeneous Environment: Select the Right Countries
Source: Carmignac, 29/01/2016
Geographic exposure of Carmignac Portfolio Emerging Discovery (%, rebased)
2.8
BRAZIL
10.4
INDIA
2.7
TURKEY
2.1
INDONESIA
2.8 CHILE
5.6 COLOMBIA
CHINA
9.3
1.5 PERU
8.6 PHILIPPINES 2.2
SRI LANKA
2.7
VIETNAM
0.5 NIGERIA
3.9
KENYA
5.1
UNITED ARAB
EMIRATES 10.6 MEXICO
RUSSIA 2.3
67% 33%
11.4 TAIWAN
12.8 SOUTH KOREA
2.9 ARGENTINA
18
Private debt / GDP
Source: Carmignac, Emerging Advisors Group, International Monetary Fund, 30/10/2015
2/ In a Weak Macro Environment, Focus on Long-Term Growth Sectors
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
19
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
eCommerce penetration rate
Source: Carmignac, MercadoLibre, Euromonitor, 2014
2/ In a Weak Macro Environment, Focus on Long-Term Growth Sectors
Antoine Colonna Analyst Consumption
20
Source: Carmignac, Deutsche Bank, Macquarie Bank Bloomberg, 06/11/2015
2/ In a Weak Macro Environment, Focus on Long-Term Growth Sectors
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Taiw
an
Ho
ng
Ko
ng
Jap
an
Un
ited
Kin
gdo
m
Sou
th K
ore
a
Fran
ce
Sin
gap
ore
Thai
lan
d
Mal
aysi
a
Ger
man
y
Un
ited
Sta
tes
Ind
ia
Bra
zil
Ch
ina
Ph
ilip
pin
es
Ind
on
esia
Mex
ico
Vie
tnam
Matthew Williams Analyst Financial Sector
Life insurance penetration
21
3/ A Rigorous Stock-Picking…
Source: 2016 Forbes.com LLC™ All Rights Reserved, March 2015
FORBES Top 20
1 Bill Gates Software
2 Carlos Slim Telecoms
3 Warren Buffett Insurance
4 Amancio Ortega Retail
5 Larry Ellison Software
6 Charles Koch Industry
7 David Koch Industry
8 Christy Walton Retail
9 Jim Walton Retail
10 Liliane Bettencourt Consumer goods
11 Alice Walton Retail
12 Robson Walton Retail
13 Bernard Arnault Consumer goods
14 Michael Bloomberg Software
15 Jeff Bezos Internet
16 Mark Zuckerberg Internet
17 Li Ka Shing Property
18 Sheldon Adelson Casinos
19 Larry Page Internet
20 Sergey Brin Internet
22
Source: 2016 Forbes.com LLC™ All Rights Reserved, March 2015
FORBES Top 20
1 Bill Gates Software
2 Carlos Slim Telecoms
3 Warren Buffett Insurance
4 Amancio Ortega Retail
5 Larry Ellison Software
6 Charles Koch Industry
7 David Koch Industry
8 Christy Walton Retail
9 Jim Walton Retail
10 Liliane Bettencourt Consumer goods
11 Alice Walton Retail
12 Robson Walton Retail
13 Bernard Arnault Consumer goods
14 Michael Bloomberg Software
15 Jeff Bezos Internet
16 Mark Zuckerberg Internet
17 Li Ka Shing Property
18 Sheldon Adelson Casinos
19 Larry Page Internet
20 Sergey Brin Internet
Software
Infosys
Checkpoint
…That Has Proven Its Worth in Developed Markets
23
Source: 2016 Forbes.com LLC™ All Rights Reserved, March 2015
FORBES Top 20
1 Bill Gates Software
2 Carlos Slim Telecoms
3 Warren Buffett Insurance
4 Amancio Ortega Retail
5 Larry Ellison Software
6 Charles Koch Industry
7 David Koch Industry
8 Christy Walton Retail
9 Jim Walton Retail
10 Liliane Bettencourt Consumer goods
11 Alice Walton Retail
12 Robson Walton Retail
13 Bernard Arnault Consumer goods
14 Michael Bloomberg Software
15 Jeff Bezos Internet
16 Mark Zuckerberg Internet
17 Li Ka Shing Property
18 Sheldon Adelson Casinos
19 Larry Page Internet
20 Sergey Brin Internet
Retail
Wal-Mart de Mexico
Grupo Pao De Acucar
Jeronimo Martins
President Chain Store
Almacenes Exito
…That Has Proven Its Worth in Developed Markets
24
Source: 2016 Forbes.com LLC™ All Rights Reserved, March 2015
FORBES Top 20
1 Bill Gates Software
2 Carlos Slim Telecoms
3 Warren Buffett Insurance
4 Amancio Ortega Retail
5 Larry Ellison Software
6 Charles Koch Industry
7 David Koch Industry
8 Christy Walton Retail
9 Jim Walton Retail
10 Liliane Bettencourt Consumer goods
11 Alice Walton Retail
12 Robson Walton Retail
13 Bernard Arnault Consumer goods
14 Michael Bloomberg Software
15 Jeff Bezos Internet
16 Mark Zuckerberg Internet
17 Li Ka Shing Property
18 Sheldon Adelson Casinos
19 Larry Page Internet
20 Sergey Brin Internet
Internet
Baidu
MercadoLibre
Netease
Daum Communications
C-Nova
Soufun
YY
…That Has Proven Its Worth in Developed Markets
25
Source: 2016 Forbes.com LLC™ All Rights Reserved, March 2015
FORBES Top 20
1 Bill Gates Software
2 Carlos Slim Telecoms
3 Warren Buffett Insurance
4 Amancio Ortega Retail
5 Larry Ellison Software
6 Charles Koch Industry
7 David Koch Industry
8 Christy Walton Retail
9 Jim Walton Retail
10 Liliane Bettencourt Consumer goods
11 Alice Walton Retail
12 Robson Walton Retail
13 Bernard Arnault Consumer goods
14 Michael Bloomberg Software
15 Jeff Bezos Internet
16 Mark Zuckerberg Internet
17 Li Ka Shing Property
18 Sheldon Adelson Casinos
19 Larry Page Internet
20 Sergey Brin Internet
Insurance
AIA Group
Sul America
Avivasa Emeklilik
…That Has Proven Its Worth in Developed Markets
26
High Quality Financial Ratios, Consequence of Our Investment Process
* Consensus estimates ** Net debt at last company publication date and market capitalisation as at
21/10/2015 – Net debt excluding financials
Source: Carmignac, Datastream, Bloomberg, 29/01/2016
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
EPS growth(CAGR 2015-17)
Return on Equity(2016)*
FCF yield (%)(2016) *
Net debt / Market Cap **
Carmignac Emergents
Carmignac Portfolio Emerging Discovery
MSCI Emerging Markets
27
Emerging Markets
28
Time to Panic?
Source: Press, 2015 & 2016
29
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Current Account + Long term capital transactions Capital Flows
*6 months moving average
Source: Emerging Advisors Group, Q3 2015
The Key Question for EM...
% GDP*
Current Account + Long Term Capital Transactions
Capital Flows (excl. FDIs)
30
Chinese Savings: A Decisive Factor
Source: Carmignac, The People's Bank of China, China National Bureau of Statistics, 31/12/2015
3.3
8.3
3.2
3.0
1.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Chinese household liquid reserves Chinese central bank foreign exchangereserves
USD trn
USD 15.5 trn
USD 3.3 trn
Cash
Wealth Management Products
Equities
Deposits
≈
≈
31
Yuan will depreciate
Deposits + Savings OUTFLOW risk
Source : Carmignac
A sharp rate cut Capital controls
What are Chinese Authorities’ Options?
Strong one-off devaluation (≈ 15% - 20%)
Step by step devaluations (≈ 5% per year)
32
50
150
250
350
450
550
650
Source: Bloomberg, Jan 2016
China’s Contagion Mechanism
USD bn
China’s trade balance
33
Impact on Commodities
Source: Emerging Advisors Group, Jan 2016
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Copper
Steel
Iron ore
Coal
34
A Global Problem
Source: Emerging Advisors Group, Jan 2016
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
DM imports
EM exports
Growth rate (USD, % y/y)
35
Conclusion
36
A Rigorous Approach that Works Through a Whole Cycle
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Management fees are included in performance. *MSCI Emerging Markets (EUR), (Reinvested net dividends, rebalanced quarterly)
Source: Carmignac, 31/12/2015; Base 100: 31/12/2009
Carmignac Emergents
+40.9%
Reference Indicator* +14.2%
2010
+30.9%
+24.5%
2012
+17.3%
+13.4%
2011
-12.1%
-17.8%
2013
-6.2%
-6.8%
2014
+5.8%
+11.4%
2015
+5.2%
-5.2%
Carmignac Emergents Reference Indicator*
37
A Rigorous Approach that Works Through a Whole Cycle
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Management fees are included in performance. *50% MSCI EM SmallCap (EUR) + 50% MSCI EM MidCap (EUR), (EUR, Reinvested net dividends))
Source: Carmignac, 31/12/2015; Base 100: 31/12/2009
Carmignac Portfolio Emerging Discovery +41.6%
Reference Indicator* +23.9%
2010
+32.6%
+30.5%
2012
+15.9%
+16.9%
2011
-19.1%
-24.3%
2013
-2.3%
-5.2%
2014
+13.1%
+13.0%
2015
+3.0%
+0.2%
Carmignac Portfolio Emerging Discovery Reference Indicator*
38
Appendix
39
The Emerging Markets Team
HAIYAN LI-LABBÉ 14-year experience Fund Manager of Carmignac Portfolio China Analyst Covers Greater China Joined Carmignac in 2011
DAVID YOUNG PARK 11-year experience Co-Portfolio Manager of Carmignac Emergents Co-Portfolio Manager of Carmignac Portfolio Emerging Discovery Covers Asia ex-Greater China Joined Carmignac in 2007
XAVIER HOVASSE 16-year experience Co-Portfolio Manager of Carmignac Emergents Co-Portfolio Manager of Carmignac Portfolio Emerging Discovery Co-Portfolio Manager of Carmignac Portfolio Emerging Patrimoine Covers Latin America and EMEA Joined Carmignac in 2008
CHARLES ZERAH 20-years experience Global Fixed Income Management Fund Manager of Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond Co-Fund Manager of Carmignac Portfolio Emerging
Patrimoine Covers Emerging Markets Bonds Joined Carmignac in 2010
FIXED INCOME & FX
MICHEL WISKIRSKI 7-years experience Analyst Covers EMEA Joined Carmignac in 2014
CARMIGNAC EMERGENTS &
CARMIGNAC PORTFOLIO EMERGING DISCOVERY
JOSEPH MOUAWAD 10-years experience Emerging Markets Analyst Covers Emerging Markets Bonds and Currencies Joined Carmignac in 2015
40
Commitment to On-The-Ground Research
Team visits in the last 6 months
*United Arab Emirats Source: Carmignac
David Park
Xavier Hovasse
Antoine Colonna
Matthew Williams
Fund Managers
Analysts
Edouard Carmignac
Tim Jaksland
Simon Lovat
Michel Wiskirski
HAIYAN LI-LABBÉ
MEXICO
COLOMBIA
ARGENTINA
BRAZIL
SOUTH AFRICA
TURKEY
U.A.E QATAR
INDIA THAILAND
INDONESIA
JAPAN
SOUTH KOREA TAIWAN
PHILIPPINES
CHINA
VIETNAM
RUSSIA
41
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 2,000 4,000 6,000
Active Management
Source: EM Equity European-domiciled funds bigger than €1bn as of December 2014.
Excluding passive/index tracking funds & small cap funds Calculation benchmark used: MSCI EM,
LHS: 31/10/2015 RHS: 31/12/2015
Dif
fere
nce
vs.
be
nch
mar
k
Active share of Carmignac Emergents and main competitors
AUM (Millions)
Active Share
Carmignac Emergents: Evolution of tracking Error
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Carmignac Emergents
42
The Dividend of Indian Demography
*By volume in the 140 brands and more than 123m cases per annum Source : Bloomberg, UBS, Exane, Deutsche Bank, 31/12/2015
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Ru
ssia
Bra
zil
Thai
lan
d
USA U
K
Wo
rld
Ind
ia
Per-capita consumption still the lowest
litres per annum*
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
EPS Growth(CAGR 2015-
17)
Return onEquity 2017
FCF yield2017
Netdebt/Market
Cap
United Spirits Diageo AB InBev
United Spirits
43
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Un
ited
Kin
gdo
m
Fran
ce
Sou
th K
ore
a
Un
ited
Sta
tes
Arg
enti
na
Jap
an
Mex
ico
Sou
th A
fric
a
Ger
man
y
Turk
ey
Thai
lan
d
Ch
ina
Bra
zil
Ind
ia
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
EPS Growth(2015-17)
Return onEquity 2017
FCF yield2016
Netdebt/Market
Cap
Shanghai Airport Frankfurt Airport ADP
China Offers Attractive Underpenetrated Sectors…
Source: Bloomberg, World Bank: World Development Indicators, U.S. Census Bureau, Data as of 30/06/2015 for China, 31/12/2014 for Japan, US, Korea, and 2013 for other countries,
31/12/2015
Outbound travel penetration Shanghai International Airport
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
44
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
EPS Growth(2015-17)
Return onEquity 2017
FCF yield2017
Net debt/Market Cap
(rhs)
Zhengzhou Yutong Daimler Volvo
… as well as Pockets of Growth
Source: Ministry of Transport of the People’s Republic of China, 06/11/2015 Carmignac, Bloomberg, Exane, Commerzbank, 31/12/2015
Electric bus penetration in public transport Zhengzhou Yutong Bus
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
45
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Ch
ina
+ H
K
Mex
ico
Bra
zil
Sou
th A
fric
a
Taiw
an
Mal
aysi
a
Turk
ey
Co
lom
bia
Ind
on
esia
Ind
ia
Ph
ilip
pin
es
Ru
ssia
n F
eder
atio
n
Sou
th K
ore
a
Un
ited
Ara
b E
mir
ates
Excess Contribution vs Bench Overweight/ Underweight vs Bench
*United Arab Emirates
Performance attribution from 31/12/2014 to 31/12/2015
Performance Drivers in 2015: Country Selection
Overweight
Underweight
46
0.7% 0.7%
4.4%
0.5% 1.5%
0.6%
1.9% 2.6%
-0.1% 0.4%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Excess Contribution Excess Exposure vs bench
Source: Carmignac, from 31/12/2014 to 31/12/2015
Carmignac Emergents 2015 Sector Allocation
Performance Drivers in 2015: Sector Selection
Overweight / Underweight versus Bench
47
Source: Carmignac, 31/12/2015
Performance Drivers in 2015: Hedging
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Portfolio contribution Currency + equity derivatives contribution
Carmignac Emergents 2015 Contribution by hedging
Contribution of our index hedges: +0.33%
Contribution of our currency hegdes: +1.15%
48
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
Performance Drivers in 2015: Our Active and Cautious Allocation to the Chinese Markets
Source: Carmignac, 31/12/2015
17.5%
9.1%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
China A-shares
27/02/2015
including
12.4%
-1.3%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
China A-shares
20/08/2015
including
China A-shares (CSI 300 index)
14.4%
-4.7%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
China A-shares
09/07/2015
including
22.3%
-3.1%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
China A-shares
12/06/2015
including
11.5%
-7.3% -10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
China A shares
31/12/2015
including
49
EM Valuations Not so Cheap
BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, MSCI, Factset, 25/01/2016
5
10
15
20
25
30
4
5
6
7
8
9
10MSCI EM 12m Aggregated trailing EV/EBITDA (x) ex-financials
MSCI EM trailing P/E (x)
Average
+1 sd
-1 sd
Average
+1 sd
-1 sd
50
And Consensus Estimates Consistently too Optimistic
BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, MSCI, Factset, 25/01/2016
MSCI Emerging Markets earnings estimates (%)
-5
0
5
10
15
202011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
51
Your local contac at Carmignac Germany & Austria
Roland SCHMIDT
BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT DIRECTOR
WHOLESALE & INSTITUTIONAL GERMANY & AUSTRIA
EXT +49-(0)69 71042 - 3616
WHOLESALE & INSTITUTIONAL
FRANK RÜTTENAUER
HEAD OF RETAIL BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT
EXT +49-(0)69 71042 - 3612
MICHAEL T. SCHÜTT
HEAD OF COUNTRY GERMANY & AUSTRIA
EXT +49-(0)69 71042 - 3610
RETAIL GERMANY & AUSTRIA
AGATHE RYLOW
CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIP MANAGER
EXT +352 4670 6043
SEBASTIAN HAIMERL
BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT MANAGER
EXT +49-(0)69 71042 - 3618
INGO BOXLEITNER
BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT MANAGER
EXT +49-(0)69 71042 - 3619
ISABELLA ZUREK
ACCOUNT RELATIONSHIP EXECUTIVE
EXT +49-(0)69 71042 - 3615
52
Disclaimer This presentation is intended for professional clients and has not been submitted for FSMA validation. This presentation may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, without prior authorisation from the management company. This presentation does not constitute a subscription offer, nor does it constitute investment advice. The information contained in this presentation may be partial information, and may be modified without prior notice. SRRI from the KIID : scale from 1 (lowest risk) to 7 (highest risk); category-1 risk does not mean a risk-free investment. This indicator may change over time. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Fees are included in performance. To find out the actual fees charged by each distributor, please refer to each distributor's respective fee schedule.
The Funds present a risk of loss of capital. Any contractual information relating to the Funds entered in this publication figures in the respective prospectuses of said Funds. The prospectuses, KIIDs, the net asset values and the latest (semi-) annual management reports may be obtained, free of charge, in French or in Dutch, from the management company (tel. +352 46 70 60 1). These documents may also be obtained via the website www.carmignac.be or from Caceis Belgium S.A., the financial service provider in Belgium, at the following address: avenue du port, 86c b320, B-1000 Brussels. The KIIDs must be made available to the subscriber prior to each subscription. It is recommended that the subscriber read the KIID before each subscription. The minimum subscription amount for A EUR acc units is 1 unit; the minimum subscription amount for A CHF acc units is CHF 1,000; and the minimum subscription amount for A USD acc units is USD 1,000. The Fund may not be offered or sold, directly or indirectly, for the benefit or on behalf of a "U.S. person", according to the definition of the US Regulation S and FATCA. If you subscribe to a French investment fund (fonds commun de placement or FCP), you must declare on your tax form, each year, your share of the dividends (and interest, if applicable) received by the Fund. You can perform a detailed calculation at www.carmignac.be. This tool does not constitute tax advice and is intended to serve solely as a calculation aid. This does not exempt you from having to perform the procedures and verifications incumbent upon you as a taxpayer. The results indicated are obtained using data that you provide, and under no circumstances shall Carmignac be held responsible in the event of error or omission on your part. Pursuant to Article 19bis of the Belgian Income Tax Code (CIR92), in the case of subscription to a Fund that is subject to the Savings Taxation Directive, the investor will have to pay, upon redemption of his or her shares, a withholding tax of 25% on the income (in the form of interest, or capital gains or losses) derived from the return on assets invested in debt claims. Distributions are subject to withholding tax of 25% without income distinction. Copyright: The data published in this presentation are the exclusive property of their owners, as mentioned on each page.
Non contractual document, completion achieved on 05/02/2016
CARMIGNAC GESTION – Asset management company (AMF authorisation no. GP 97-08 of 13/03/1997)
Limited company (société anonyme or SA) with capital of €15,000,000 – Registration no.: RCS Paris B 349 501 676
24 Place Vendôme – 75001 Paris – Tel: +33 1 42 86 53 35
CARMIGNAC GESTION LUXEMBOURG – Subsidiary of Carmignac Gestion
UCITS management company (CSSF authorisation of 10/06/2013)
Limited company (SA) with capital of €23,000,000 - Registration no.: RC Luxembourg B67549
City Link -7, rue de la Chapelle L-1325 Luxembourg – Tel: +352 46 70 60 1